MLB DFS Slate Preview: Wednesday, August 23
Taylor Smith previews the Wednesday, August 23rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
We’ve got split-slate action on this Wednesday, though DraftKings and FanDuel are doing things differently once again. DK’s main slate is a 6-gamer starting at 7:05 ET. FanDuel, however, has as 6-game slate of their own that starts at 6:40. FD decided to include Rockies-Rays and omit the late Reds-Angels clash.
We do have some talented pitchers on the board for tonight, but none of them are in ideal matchups. That’ll also make things look a bit dicey on the hitting side, as many of these pitchers aren’t normally guys we’d go out of our way to stack against. Whatever the case, this slate does give us plenty of different paths from a roster construction standpoint.
Let’s go through it and identify the best MLB DFS picks for a Wednesday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- LAD/CLE is the only game of the day with any real weather issues, though they’re minor. Roth has this one tabbed GREEN/YELLOW, with storms expected to dodge the ballpark for most of the game. Tune into Crunch Time just before lock for his last-minute thoughts, however. This one also has winds whistling out to center field at about 10 mph.
- And…that’s it. NYM/ATL is worth noting for warm temperatures up around 90 around first pitch, though we do have wind of around 9 mph blowing in from left. Pretty good humidity still helps the bats here, however.
- TOR/BAL will be around 80 by the time the game starts, while WAS/NYY and CIN/LAA will both be in the 70s. COL/TB and BOS/HOU are your dome games for tonight.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Orioles scratched Jack Flaherty from his start tonight, and Dean Kremer will get the ball instead.
- Chris Sale will make his third start off the IL after throwing 58 and 65 pitches in his first two starts back, respectively. He hasn’t looked great in either outing, and 70-80 pitches seems like a reasonable expectation tonight in Houston.
- The Reds haven’t announced a starter yet for tonight’s Game 2 against the Angels. Andrew Abbott is set to start Game 1, which leaves Brett Kennedy as the most likely candidate for Game 2.
- Yordan Alvarez was scratched from the Astros’ lineup yesterday after apparently slamming his finger into a door. He’s out of the lineup tonight against Chris Sale, though Jose Abreu is back in the lineup after he was activated from the IL. Yainer Diaz will DH in Yordan’s spot tonight.
- Mike Trout returned from the IL after missing considerable time with a hamate injury last night. He’s still reportedly playing through pain, however, so there’s no telling how effective he’ll be moving forward. He went 1-for-4 with a single in yesterday’s game.
- The Dodgers put JD Martinez on the injured list yesterday with the nagging groin injury he’s been dealing with for several days. Michael Busch was recalled to take his spot on the roster, and he served as LA’s DH last night. We have Busch projected to start again tonight against right-hander Xzavion Curry.
- Jarren Duran was IL’d yesterday with a toe strain. Wilyer Abreu got the call to replace Duran on the roster, and he made his debut last night after Alex Verdugo was ejected.
- Anthony Santander was reportedly available to pinch-hit last night, though he never appeared in the game. He’s been sidelined since August 18 with a sore back, and there’s a chance he returns to the lineup tonight. Ryan McKenna has seen some more playing time of late with Santander banged up.
- Surprise, surprise, the Braves are the top stack on tonight’s slate in a home matchup against Jose Quintana. I don’t think this is anything resembling a must-stack situation considering how well Quintana has pitched all season, but Atlanta’s 5.54 total is still the highest on the night. I am sad to report that I once again have interest in the Yankees against MacKenzie Gore, while the Reds look a little sneaky against volatile lefty Reid Detmers.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- There’s nothing clear-cut about this slate, but we do have Aaron Civale ($9,700) in the player pool on FanDuel in a cushy home matchup against the Rockies. Colorado’s lineup has been awful away from Coors Field, and Civale offers a nice discount from the true aces. Kevin Gausman ($11,000) is the salary headliner in a #RevengeGame at Baltimore, followed by Clayton Kershaw ($10,800) against the Guardians and Charlie Morton ($10,000) vs. the Mets. Kershaw’s been limited to 67 and 71 pitches in his first two starts off the IL, but it’s hard not to like the matchup against this low-power Cleveland lineup. Gausman is always worth a look in GPPs, but I’m not dying to pay $11,000 for him here.
- For savings, I suppose you can roll the dice on Luis Severino ($6,600) or Jose Urquidy ($6,900). Severino has the far better track record and a solid matchup tonight at home vs. Washington, but he’s in the midst of a horrific season. I can’t really get behind punting on FanDuel outside of large-field GPPs.
- Michael Harris is on the wrong side of the platoon split tonight against Quintana, but he remains absurdly cheap on FD ($3,000). Marcell Ozuna ($3,000), Orlando Arcia ($2,700), Kevin Pillar ($2,100), and Vaughn Grissom ($2,200) can give you some cheap right-handed exposure against the lefty, while Ronald Acuna ($4,900) is the top overall hitter on the slate if you can afford him. The affordable salaries should lead to significant ownership on ATL here.
- Acuna has a .408 wOBA with a .222 ISO against lefties this season. He’s also stolen 58 bases already. His power/speed combo gives him several different paths to racking up fantasy points, which makes his 10.5 total on Underdog still look too low. I’ll gladly take higher than 10.5 FPTs for the future NL MVP on UD tonight. If you’re a new user, be sure to claim our Underdog Fantasy promo code for a 100% match bonus on your next deposit, up to $100.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Dodgers are worth a look with a 5.05 implied run total against Curry, though the lower half of this lineup is platoon-heavy these days. Curry’s significant reverse split from the right side makes Mookie Betts ($4,500) a priority in an LAD stack, though I’ll still take my chances with Freddie Freeman ($4,200) against any RHP. Busch ($2,000) is a nice salary-saver, while James Outman ($2,900) is safer than Peralta and Heyward from pinch-hit risk.
- The Yankees are fairly affordable these days because they’ve been in horrendous form, though Gore is a lefty that will yield some power. I’m still happy to pay up for Aaron Judge ($4,200) wherever possible, while Gleyber Torres ($3,000), Harrison Bader ($2,800), Giancarlo Stanton ($2,900), and Anthony Volpe ($2,500) offer useful discounts. Oswald Peraza is also min-salary if you need even more savings.
- Daulton Varsho ($2,600), DJ Stewart ($2,400), and Daniel Vogelbach ($2,400) are a few more cheapies with good power and solid matchups worth considering tonight. We can also stack the Rays on FD against middling southpaw Austin Gomber. They’re more expensive on aggregate, but it’s a plus spot for Randy Arozarena ($3,500, Isaac Paredes ($3,100), and Jose Siri ($3,100).
- The DK build is a bit tougher tonight considering we have to find two of these pitchers to stomach, and we don’t get Civale. Gausman ($10,600) is the only 5-figure SP out there, though Kershaw ($9,900) isn’t far behind. I suppose hovering in the $9,000 range with Morton is viable, but it’s not a perfect spot for him. Gore ($7,400) and Detmers ($7,600) offer better strikeout upside than their salaries would indicate, while Severino ($5,400) is an easier pill to swallow given the salary and 2-SP requirement on DK. I don’t love any of it, so I’ll be casting a wide net and mixing and matching pitchers in DK GPPs.
- As usual, the Braves won’t come quite as cheap on DK, but they’re still the headliners if you can afford them. Acuna ($6,800) is pushing $7,000 these days, yet still popping as the best high-end value of the bunch. Pillar ($2,600) is a cash game one-off worth considering, while Arcia ($4,100) has absolutely raked left-handed pitching this year (.483 wOBA, .333 ISO).
- The Yanks have terrible vibes at this point, but this lineup still profiles very well against left-handed pitching. Judge ($6,200), Torres ($4,100), Stanton ($4,200), Bader ($3,300), and Everson Pereira ($2,000) give you viable hitters in every price tier, so the stack comes together pretty naturally.
- I’ll have some exposure to Detmers, but stacking Cincy against him is in play assuming the Angels’ lefty is somewhat popular. Matt McLain and Spencer Steer both have wOBAs north of .400 against LHPs, while Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Noelvi Marte are both cheap with the platoon advantage. Elly De La Cruz is a bit overrated these days, but he does still have enough speed and power to be worth a spend in your Reds stacks.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!