MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Optimizer Values for DraftKings (April 23)
Taylor Smith previews the Tuesday, April 23rd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Last night’s slate was a weird one. No team scored any runs, so you likely weren’t thrilled with whichever stacks you landed on. You were thrilled, however, if you played any of Chris Paddack, Dylan Cease, or Albert Suarez.
We’re back at it tonight with a solid 10-gamer that could be a little heavier on offense than Monday’s slate. There are still several solid pitching options at the top of the pricing tier, but we’re lacking appealing cheap stuff. Regardless, there’s money to be made. Let’s take a 10,000-foot view of Tuesday’s slate.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- HOU/CHC gets a GREEN/YELLOW tag with rain expected to have moved out of Chicago by the time first pitch rolls around. It doesn’t sound like this will be an issue, but Shadow Roth will keep an eye on it and provide an update this afternoon. This game also has winds out to center at up to 15 MPH, which is a big boost to bats.
- Similar story in St. Louis, where ARI/STL is GREEN/YELLOW with rain having likely ended around the ballpark by the scheduled start time.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Padres placed Manny Machado on the paternity list before yesterday’s game in Colorado, which means he’ll be out of the lineup again tonight. Eguy Rosario drew the start at the hot corner, though we have Tyler Wade ($2,800) in the projected lineup tonight against right-hander Ryan Feltner. Jackson Merrill should slide up to 6th, while Graham Pauley ($3,200) is another cheapie projected to start.
- Ian Happ remains day-to-day with a sore hamstring after missing Sunday’s game. We have him projected to sit out against JP France, with Alexander Canario expected to start in the outfield and hit 9th.
- Ryan Mountcastle failed to crack the Orioles lineup last night against Reid Detmers due to lingering knee soreness. He was reportedly available off the bench, and Brandon Hyde says the decision to sit him was merely a precaution. We don’t have Mountcastle projected to start against Griffin Canning, though Ryan O’Hearn should return to the lineup in the No. 3 spot. Prospect Heston Kjerstad ($2,400) got a call-up yesterday after a hot start in Triple-A, and we have him slotted in the No. 8 spot. Austin Hays landed on the IL yesterday with a calf issue.
- Jonah Heim was placed on the bereavement list on Saturday, so there’s a chance he’ll be back tonight when the Rangers host the Mariners. If Heim isn’t back, Andrew Knizner is expected to draw another start behind the plate against Logan Gilbert.
- Blaze Alexander was held out of last night’s game with a hamstring injury, though he was reportedly available off the bench. We do have Blaze projected to start and bat 8th against Steven Matz.
- Luis Urias left Sunday’s game with a wrist contusion, so he’s questionable to suit up for Seattle tonight in Arlington. Josh Rojas entered the game in Urias’ spot the other day.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- I don’t know what more we can say about the White Sox. They were shut out for the 8th time already this season last night, and the campaign isn’t even yet a month old. Chris Paddack blew their doors off en route to 10 strikeouts after posting a 12% K rate through his first 3 starts. Tonight, the Sox will take their swings against an actual good pitcher, Pablo Lopez. Lopez (25.8% strikeouts, 3.97 SIERA) is off to a solid start this season, though nothing boosts your numbers like a date with the White Sox. Lopez is only the 3rd-most-expensive pitcher at $9,300, and he projects considerably better than anyone else at the position. He’ll be mega-chalk, but it’s hard to dispute.
- Marcus Stroman gets a nice matchup at home vs. Oakland, but I don’t see much reason he should be the priciest pitcher on the board at $9,800. He’s a perfectly decent pitcher in a plus spot, so he’ll be in the player pool for GPPs. Grayson Rodriguez ($9,600) looks ticketed for ace-dom before long, and he’s off to a fine start of his own, with a 27.8% K rate and a 3.39 SIERA on the season. The Angels lineup he’ll face isn’t imposing, and there are some whiffs here (25.4% vs. RHP since the start of 2023). Lopez is the SP1, while Stroman and Rodriguez are really just dart throws in tournaments at their higher salaries.
- Saving money with Max Fried ($8,000), Logan Webb ($8,800), Kevin Gausman ($8,500), or even Michael King ($7,000) is viable. Fried gets arguably the cushiest matchup of the bunch at home against the Marlins, while King would be the uber-chalk against the Rockies if the game weren’t happening in Denver. King should still get some ownership simply because Colorado is a pathetic offense and the salary relief comes in handy. Gausman (at KC) and Webb (vs. NYM) are strong-enough pitchers to get invites to the player pool, even in more difficult on-paper matchups.
- Coors was a letdown last night, but SD/COL has the highest total on the slate once again. The Machado-less Padres (5.84) have the top implied run total against Ryan Feltner. Feltner has actually pitched well this season – especially by usual Rockies starter standards – and I doubt I’d be making San Diego a priority stack if this game were happening in Southern California. They’re fine, and I’m not even convinced they’ll be the highest-owned stack on this slate.
- It sounds like we’ve got a classic Wrigley wind game on tap, with JP France set to square off against Jordan Wicks. This game has a total of 10 runs. Wicks is a lefty with decent strikeout stuff, but the Astros have been one of the lowest-strikeout offenses in the sport for years against LHP (16.6% since 2023). He’s also yielding a 12% barrel rate so far this season, while his walk rate has crept up over 10%. Everyone not named Jose Abreu looks terrific here. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, and Chas McCormick are the standouts from the right side, and I never shy away from Yordan Alvarez or Kyle Tucker in lefty-lefty matchups. The ownership will be there with Houston, I’d assume.
- The Cubs might look even better, as France is a pitcher we can pick on in any context. The right-hander has pitched to an extreme reverse platoon split early in his MLB career, though it’s not like he’s shutting lefties down either (.393 wOBA allowed this season). Strikeouts are an issue for Christopher Morel and Michael Busch, but France has a K rate of barely over 16% this season. If the Cubs are putting the ball in play against him – which they should be – I like their chances of doing damage. Morel feels like a dong waiting to happen here. The lineup is a bit watered down with Seiya Suzuki out and Ian Happ questionable, but you can find value with Mike Tauchman ($3,500), Yan Gomes ($3,100), and Alexander Canario ($3,400), assuming they crack the lineup. Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, and Cody Bellinger are top plays at their respective positions.
- Michael Wacha has reinvented himself as a pretty good pitcher these days, but we’ve always been able to target righties against him. That’s the case again this season, so I don’t mind getting to some of the gutless Blue Jays righties at the top of the order. Bo Bichette, George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero, Justin Turner, and Davis Schneider would be the top options, though replacing one of them with Alejandro Kirk ($3,000) is viable if you’re struggling to fill the catcher spot.
- Are the Cardinals terrible? It appears so. Are they facing Tommy Henry tonight? They sure are. Henry has been a bit unlucky this season, and he’s got some ground-ball ability. This isn’t a very ground-ball-heavy lineup, so it’s a fine spot to trot out the Paul Goldschmidt / Willson Contreras / Nolan Arenado mini stack. I’m prepared to be disappointed by this team, but they’re unlikely to pull much ownership.
- A few value bats to consider are Jose Azocar ($2,700), Michael Siani ($2,100), Seth Brown ($3,000), Heston Kjerstad ($2,400), Cal Raleigh ($3,900), Jordan Walker ($2,900), Mauricio Dubon ($2,800), and Daulton Varsho ($3,400).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
Good luck in your contests tonight!
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