MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/29/2022
We have a huge 13-game slate tonight with Coors field back in play and just a couple games with potential rain issues.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
LAA/CHW should start dry and on time but rain will get steadily heavier as the night goes on so they could either finish it out very wet or we might see an early conclusion but either way it’s ugly hitting conditions with ~15mph blowing in which is solid for pitching if you want want to risk this game completing with no delays or getting called early. NYY/KCR has a lot of rain moving in likely towards the end of the game but hopefully after it completes and until the rain comes it’ll be nice hitting conditions with ~15mph winds out to left. ARI/STL has a little bit of rain that could cause a slight delay to the start but the game will be fine once they do start with ~13mph winds from right to left.
Coors field will see ~24mph winds blowing in at the beginning with it dying down as the night goes on so we might not see as many HR’s as expected especially with the tough Hunter Greene going for CIN. WSH/SFG and DET/LAD are looking at ~10mph winds blowing out while CLE/OAK only has ~5mph wind blowing out. HOU/TOR, MIN/TBR, ATL/TEX, and CHC/MIL are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for LAA/CHW are -27.9% while total runs for NYY/KCR are +13.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
J.D. Martinez aggravated his groin injury yesterday so he’ll likely be out a few games again while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. should be back in after sitting yesterday with a sore foot. Luis Robert is getting closer to a return but for now we’re expecting him out again while Ronald Acuna returned yesterday but is expected to rest today. Kris Bryant and Brendan Rodgers have each missed the last few games and for now we’re leaving them out until we get any positive update on their status and Joc Pederson could be out a few games at least with his groin injury and they have a few options to hit lead-off with Austin Slater our best guess for now.
Hunter Greene has been pretty good this year but he has allowed 8 ER including 3 HR over his first three starts and for the price I’d consider Charlie Blackmon on FD for $4,000 and Ryan McMahon on DK for $4,300. The Reds offense has picked it up lately with three straight games scoring 5+ runs and they should be the most popular offense today in Coors against Senzatela especially at their prices. The entire projected lineup is $3,400 or less and I would get at least 2-3 of them in your main build while on DK everyone is under $3,000 except Jonathan India but he is still only $3,500. I’m not sure what happened but DK really messed up these Reds salaries and I’d be looking to get 4-5 of them in your main builds which allows you to fit any pitchers you want along with any other expensive bats you want. The Dodgers are my next favorite offense with Mookie Betts and Trea Turner still pretty cheap on both sites with the platoon advantage today. Other stacks I’d consider are the Yankees, Cardinals, Braves, and Red Sox while HOU/TOR should be lower-owned than usual but both teams can always go off against mediocre pitching today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Joey Votto ($2,900) and Tommy Pham ($3,200) who are a combined 6-for-16 against Senzatela in their careers which isn’t much of a sample size but still makes them the priorities for me on the Reds today with Jonathan India ($3,500) and Tyler Naquin ($2,900) my next favorite. Christian Yelich is also looking way too cheap at $2,700 against Hendricks along with Andrew McCutchen at just $2,400 while Giancarlo Stanton price barely budged as he’s just $3,100 today against the lefty Bubic. Overall FanDuel really needs to tighten up their pricing as there is just so much value I like today including Justin Turner ($2,700), Nelson Cruz ($2,300), Rowdy Tellez ($2,300), Corey Seager ($2,700), and Chas McCormick ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings all of the Reds are mispriced so Votto ($2,800), Pham ($2,700), Naquin ($2,900), and India ($3,500) will all likely be in most peoples’ cash builds while Chas McCormick remains a solid value play likely hitting lead-off for $2,600. With the Reds salaries there should be no problem fitting in 3-4 higher priced bats like Betts, Devers, Guerrero, Judge, and Stanton just to name a few and if you need some other solid guys for the price I like Pavin Smith ($3,000), Gleyber Torres ($3,300), Max Kepler ($3,400), and Anthony Santander ($3,100).
For pitching I really like Aaron Nola especially on DK for just $8,500 along with Lucas Giolito for around $9,400 on both sites with the wind blowing in to help mitigate the tough Angels lineup. Frankie Montas, Alex Wood, and Nestor Cortes are all great spend up options as well while Corey Kluber ($7,000) on FD and Kyle Bradish ($4,000) on DK are guys I like taking shots on in GPPs for those prices.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn