MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/8/2022
We have 10 games on tap today with a lot of injury news and a couple rain spots to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
TEX/CLE is the most likely to be affected by rain with moderate to heavy rain moving during the game and sticking around for a couple hours so they may just decide to postpone it early or start it and have to delay it mid-game but overall it’s looking pretty risky to trust in DFS. CHC/BAL will have a lot of scattered rain & storm activity in the are with a late start or in-game delay the most likely outcomes but a postponement is in the range of outcomes too so there is plenty of risk in DFS. OAK/ATL should start dry but there is some chance of mid-game rain that could cause a delay so pitching is a bit risky here.
COL/SFG will have 10-15mph winds blowing out but temps in the high 50’s with LAD/CHW looking at similar conditions but slightly colder and a little less wind out. NYY/MIN will have 5-10mph winds out to right and temps in the high 60’s and BOS/LAA has ~7mph winds out to left with similar temps. STL/TBR & PHI/MIL are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for NYY/MIN are +28.8% while total runs for OAK/ATL are -17.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Starling Marte left with a quad injury yesterday and Pete Alonso was hit by a pitch in the hand that forced him to exit early so for now both look doubtful today so Mark Canha and J.D. Davis should hit pretty high in the order against the lefty Manaea. Mike Trout left early with groin tightness and if out Eovaldi will be a more appealing SP to target and Adell / Lagares likely start in the outfield with Marsh. Kolten Wong is dealing with calf discomfort and is out today so Christian Yelich will hit leadoff while Willy Adames is off the IL and back in there and speaking of leadoff hitters Leury Garcia is back at leadoff for the White Sox as Mendick goes back to 9th and Yoan Moncada is back hitting 3rd after hitting 7th yesterday. Carlos Correa is off the covid IL and expected back in there today and Adam Duvall is starting after being a late scratch yesterday but d’Arnaud remains out so William Contreras will start at C for ATL.
Hopefully the rain holds off enough for OAK/ATL to play through as the Braves are my favorite stack today against the rookie Jared Koenig as they’re sitting at a 5.5 team total currently and there aren’t many other stacks I’m loving today. The Giants are the only other team with a projected total above 5 right now but they still more of a GPP stack for me. The Yankees are my next favorite stack after the Braves going against Archer who only has one game with more than 3 strikeouts in his last five starts. Cueto was great in his first couple starts but has been hit hard for 8 ER over his last two starts so the Dodgers are squarely in play as a stack option although the colder temps in Chicago aren’t the best hitting conditions. The weather in Baltimore is risky but I like the Cubs as a stack if this game gets in and the Red Sox are expensive on both sites but are a decent GPP stack option.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the Red Sox have a few guys projecting as top value plays in Bobby Dalbec ($2,000), Christian Arroyo ($2,000), and Enrique Hernandez ($3,000). If you want some cheap BOS exposure I’d start with Hernandez and Dalbec and my favorite expensive BOS bat is J.D. Martinez ($3,700). I definitely want as many Braves as I can fit and Ronald Acuna is still way too cheap at $4,200 while Ozzie Albies ($3,200), Dansby Swanson ($3,500), Austin Riley ($3,800), and Adam Duvall ($2,600) are my next favorite ATL bats for the price. I also want some Yankees exposure and if you can’t fit Judge ($4,500) I’d look at Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500), Anthony Rizzo ($3,700), DJ LeMahieu ($3,300), and Josh Donaldson ($3,000) all at great prices. Some other FD bats I’m liking for the price include Nick Castellanos ($3,000), J.D. Davis ($2,300), Wilmer Flores ($3,000), Andrew Vaughn ($2,800), and Trey Mancini ($3,000).
Looking at DraftKings the Braves are much more expensive compared to FD but I will still try to fit in 2-4 of them with Acuna, Swanson, Albies, Riley, Duvall, and Ozuna how I rank them in priority. The Yankees are priced up big time as well but DJ LeMahieu ($4,300) is still very affordable and Aaron Hicks ($2,900) is very cheap. Arroyo and Dalbec are both cheap Red Sox options and although it’s a tough matchup with Manaea I like the prices of Mark Canha ($3,300), J.D. Davis ($2,900), and Eduardo Escobar ($3,100) who should all hit higher in the order if Marte and/or Alonso are out. More good value DK bats are Ian Happ ($3,700), Ryan Mountcastle ($3,200), Nolan Gorman ($3,100), Harold Ramirez ($2,400), and Luke Voit ($2,700).
Pitching is going to be interesting today as we have some really solid high priced options and a few solid low-priced options and rain could play a factor in Atlanta and Cleveland as Ian Anderson is a strong value play and Shane Bieber has been excellent of late. Nestor Cortes is probably the safest option as far as weather, floor and upside while Aaron Nola and Nathan Eovaldi are close behind him in pretty good matchups and 10+ strikeout upside. I also really like Sean Manaea in what should be a weaker Mets lineup with no Marte and possibly no Alonso and Alex Wood is a great value option on FD at just $7,300 against the Rockies. I also have to mention Chris Bassitt for just $8,200 on DK as one of my favorite mid-range options. There are so many ways to go with pitching today but I think for the price I’m leaning Eovaldi as my SP1 on both sites especially if Mike Trout is out of the Angels lineup and if the rain starts to look safer Ian Anderson ($7,700) is a great SP2 option on DK against the A’s.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn