MLB Division Breakdowns Part 1: NL West

by Bogality Last Updated 2016-03-30 04:35:51

If you’ve played DFS long enough, you likely picked up that it’s much easier to win in the first month or two of the season for each respective sport. While it is somewhat speculative, it can likely be attributed to the combination of players dabbling into a new sport, or new users trying DFS for the first time with the hype of a new sport’s season. This is the time when a little bit of advanced knowledge can go a long way toward your profitability.

This article is going to be a six-part series where I break down each division for the upcoming MLB DFS season, in hopes that it sheds some light on how to (smartly) attack the early MLB season before there is enough sample size for the masses to pull information from.

I know baseball very well having played it at a reasonably high level, and it’s easily my most successful DFS sport. However, just because you know a sport well, doesn’t mean it will translate to instant profits in DFS. For example, going into last year’s MLB season (my first season playing DFS) I knew the Atlanta Braves were a good team to target with pitchers because of their 22.6% K-rate (fourth highest in 2014) and .296 wOBA (4th worst in 2014). However, blindly taking those stats into the 2015 season was plain foolish. In the offseason, the Braves parted ways with some major hackers such as Dan Uggla (29% K-rate), Melvin Upton (30.3% K-rate), Justin Upton (25.7% K-rate), and Evan Gattis (23.8% K-rate), so this was an entirely different lineup going into 2015.

But sure enough, April 7th rolled around and I ran out Mat Latos against Atlanta with full confidence he’d at least be able to K his way to a decent outing considering his price. Latos got shelled for seven earned runs and ended up getting pulled without escaping the 1st inning, and I still feel the pain of my rosters going up in flames today. The Braves were not world-beaters last season by any means, but they did greatly improve on their 2014 numbers and finished up 2015 with an 18.6% K-rate, good for third-lowest in the league.

In this series of articles, I will do my best to break down each team, while noting a team’s offseason additions/subtractions and how it may change the overall landscape of their lineup. Remember, there’s inherently more variance in MLB than any other of the major DFS sports, so be sure you trust your process for a while and let it take its course instead of abandoning sound strategy because you got burned a few times.

Also, before the season begins, familiarize yourself with the league averages for each stat. Ingrain these into your memory, as they will help you quickly identify unsustainable production, good matchups, and players who will begin to see positive or negative regression moving forward.

Without further ado, here is the team-by-team breakdown for the NL West:

Colorado Rockies

Notable Additions
Mark Reynolds
Gerardo Parra
Jose Reyes – I know this happened last season, but it was only for a handful of games.

Notable Losses
Troy Tulowitzki – Same as Reyes.
Wilin Rosario
Corey Dickerson

2015 Team Batting Stats
.321 wOBA (7th)
.167 ISO (5th)
6.4 BB% (28th)
21.1 K% (9th)
85 WRC+ (30th)

On the surface, we see that the Rockies strike out at an above-average rate, can’t take a walk, but they can do some damage as evident by their high wOBA and ISO. The interesting one is the 30th-ranked WRC+, which we will get to in a minute. Basically, WRC+ is kind of like wOBA in that it credits a hitter for the value of an individual outcome (single, double, walk, etc…) differently, rather than treating all hits the same, but it also includes park factor, which is crucial when dealing with the Rockies’ home park, Coors Field.

Now let’s take a look at how the Rockies performed AWAY from Coors last year:

2015 Team Batting Stats (Away)
.281 wOBA (30th)
6% BB (28th)
23.9 K% (2nd)
.146 ISO (14th)

Woof. The Rockies, despite their seemingly stacked roster of hitters, were a legitimate team to target with your SPs last year away from Coors Field, and were obvious fade candidates if you thought they would be high-owned in a road match.

The signing of Gerardo Parra was necessary after trading Corey Dickerson, but I would have thought they would go after a right-handed bat instead. Losing Tulowitzki obviously hurts the Rockies more than any other move, especially against LHPs whom they struggled mightily against in 2015 with a 22.2% K-rate and a .292 wOBA (25th worst). Mark Reynolds used to be a threat in the batters box against LHPs once upon a time. However, he hasn’t had nearly the same success the past three or so years, so outside of platooning with Ben Paulson at 1B, I don’t see Reynolds making much of in impact. He’s likely going to be a viable play in home games against LHPs because his price won’t be high, but I won’t be thrilled to roster him otherwise.

The Takeaway

Play/stack the Rockies’ hitters at Coors against RHPs. Cargo, Blackmon, Parra, Arenado, and Reyes is a murder’s row for an RHP. Against LHPs, even at Coors, I think Rockies’ hitters become interesting fade candidates in GPPs. Away from Coors take LHPs against the Rockies with confidence, but tread lightly when taking a RHP against them; stick to above-average RHPs with a good K-rate. While they struggled mightily away from home, I still wouldn’t trust running out a run-of-the-mill RHP against them.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Notable Additions
Trayce Thompson
Micah Johnson

Notable Losses
Jimmy Rollins

2015 Team Batting Stats
.322 wOBA (5th)
.163 ISO (6th)
20.7% K-rate (15th)
9.2% BB (1st)
106 wRC+ (3rd)

This one is pretty straight forward. The Dodgers are an incredibly potent offense that strike out at a league-average rate, and will make pitchers work with their league-leading BB-rate. If you played enough MLB DFS last year, you know how frustrating it was waiting for the Dodgers to put out their starting lineup on a daily basis, and you likely have a burning hatred for Don Mattingly and his penchant for ignoring players’ splits. With Mattingly gone and Dave Roberts at the helm, the first few weeks will be crucial to see how Roberts constructs his lineups – especially if you play on FanDuel and want some exposure to the Dodgers, but are hesitant with their 7:00 PM-ish (Pacific Time) start times.

Aside from the obvious studs like Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Corey Seager (more on him later) and Howie Kendrick, the Dodgers are a good source of cheap platoon players as well. Alex Guerrero, Justin Turner vs RHP, Andre Ethier vs RHP, and Scott Van Slyke vs LHP are always in play because of their upside and depressed pricing.

There are a few players I’d like to point out in particular that I hope go a bit under the radar to start the year. Corey Seager is the real deal. He got the callup from the minors late in the season last year, and I hope people forgot how good this kid was during that brief stint in the bigs. He only had 113 at bats, but he compiled a .421 wOBA (fourth highest in the MLB) a 175 wRC+ (2nd in the MLB) and a .986 OPS (5th in the MLB). I know this is a small sample size, and his .375 BABIP is a likely reason all these stats are inflated, but his upside is undeniable, and I will be targeting him early and often to start the MLB season.

Another name I’d like to mention is Kike Hernandez. He’s always priced around the bare minimum because he’s a platoon player, yet his stats vs LHP are among the best in the league. .507 wOBA, 1.215 OPS, .321 ISO, and a 234 wRC+. Those are godly numbers to put up in a single season vs LHP. In fact, almost each of those stats among batters with at least 60 plate appearances vs LHP is the best in the MLB. Obviously I’m not saying Kike is the next coming of Babe Ruth, and his absurd .500 BABIP vs LHP is unsustainable, but if the Dodgers are going against an LHP, he’s going to be in 100% of my lineups due to his upside and positional eligibility.

The Takeaway

Don’t take pitchers against the Dodgers… ever. Familiarize yourself with how Dave Roberts rolls out his rosters vs each handedness of pitcher. If you’re loading up on big bats in other games, or playing an expensive SP(s), look to some of the Dodgers’ platoon bats for some salary relief, as they are terrific punts because they all have upside. Ride the wave of Corey Seager before everyone remembers how great of a player this kid is.

San Francisco Giants

Notable Additions
Denard Span

Notable Losses
None

2015 Team Batting Stats
.318 wOBA (10th)
.139 ISO (23rd)
107 wRC+ (2nd)
7.4% BB (17th)
18.8% K-rate (25th)

The Giants are a very intriguing team. They don’t strike out much, they walk at a league-average rate, they don’t have much raw power as evident by their 23rd-rated ISO, and they have an above average wOBA. Yet their wRC+ is second highest in the league. Much like the Rockies and their struggles on the road, the Giants are basically the exact opposite. Let’s take a look at their home/road splits:

The Giants’ 53 home runs at home were the third lowest in the league, with the league average sitting at about 80. Their 366 runs on the road were the fourth highest in the league. While I wouldn’t go out of my way to target the Giants at home because they don’t have an easy out, their home park was one of the most run suppressing, pitcher-friendly environments in the league.

Another thing that should be mentioned is how deep the Giants are with above-average hitters, especially against RHPs. Hunter Pence, Buster Posey, Joe Panik, Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Matt Duffy, and Gregor Blanco all boast wOBAs of .340+ against RHPs, making the Giants a great full-team stack candidate (especially on the road).

The Takeaway

Other than Kershaw, I wouldn’t spend a premium on an SP against the Giants. Their roster is too deep to expect a high-strikeout, low-run performance you need from an elite SP. However, I don’t mind taking mid-tier LHPs against them in AT&T Park because it is such a good pitching environment. Stack up the Giants against RHPs, especially when they are on the road.

San Diego Padres

Notable Additions
Brett Wallace
Jon Jay
Alexei Ramirez

Notable Losses
Justin Upton
Will Middlebrooks
Jedd Gyorko
Yonder Alonso

2015 Team Batting Stats
.298 wOBA (29th)
.142 ISO (22nd)
91 wRC+ (22nd)
7.1% BB (23rd)
22% K-rate (4th)

Yeah… the Padres were terrible last season, and I don’t expect much else to change in 2016. While they lost some big K-potential in Middlebrooks (22% K-rate), Gyorko (23.4% K-rate) and Upton (25% K-rate), those guys could at least scare you a bit with their sticks.

The only offensive players worth noting on the Padres are Matt Kemp, who is always a low-owned guy with good pop, Wil Myers, and the only-against-LHP catcher, Derek Norris.

The Takeaway

Start your SPs against the Padres with full confidence.

As I wrote that sentence, I feel the need to clarify that that doesn’t mean “start every SP that happens to be going against the Padres.” I wouldn’t take bottom feeders like Jerome Williams or Kyle Kendrick against against them, but if the SP has a live arm and is facing the Padres, they are worthy of consideration.

To wrap up things in San Diego, the only hitters worth rostering are the three mentioned above.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Notable Additions
Jean Segura
Rickie Weeks

Notable Losses
Aaron Hill
Ender Inciarte
Jarrod Saltalamacchia

2015 Team Batting Stats
.319 wOBA (9th)
96 wRC+ (17th)
.150 ISO (15th)
7.8% BB (12th)
20.9% K-rate (14th)

I’m more curious to see how things shake out with the Diamondbacks than any other team in the NL West. Overall they were a very middling team in most offensive categories, and despite playing in one of the most hitter-friendly environments at Chase Field, don’t really have that drastic home/away splits.

I will say this much, the Diamondbacks are clearly trying to make a run for the playoffs this year shoring up their rotation with Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller. The loss of Inciarte hurts because he was a great bat at the top of the lineup, but this move will open up regular at bats for Jake Lamb and Yasmany Tomas. Lamb was off to a great start to the season but got injured, struggled upon his return, and ended up splitting time the remainder of the season. Tomas was quite the opposite; he struggled mightily out the gate which caused him to lose at bats, but went on a great stretch to end the season, showcasing the kind of pop he showed playing in Cuba.

This is obviously a dangerous team on paper. When you play in a hitter-friendly ballpark with one of the best hitters in the game in Paul Goldschmidt hitting in the middle of your lineup, that’s enough to make you second guess taking a SP against them. And speaking of Goldschmidt, you gotta feel bad for the dude with the contract he has. Well, as bad as you can feel about someone getting paid $32 million (over five years) to play a game. If he were a free agent right now, he would have no trouble inking a 10-year, $250 million deal with a ballclub.

The Takeaway

I really don’t know what to make of this team. They have some enticing young talent that could either struggle putting everything together, or they could come out guns blazing and try to give the Dodgers and Giants a run for their money. Goldschmidt is always in play, and he can be deployed without any hesitation. Given the potential upside of some of the other guys on this roster, coupled with the ballpark they play in, I’ll probably be stacking them right out the gate in hopes they go off.

Stay tuned for the next edition of MLB Division Breakdowns!