MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 19th - Page Two
Tampa Bay at Cleveland – 7:10 PM EST
| Tampa Bay | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | Nate Karns |  | Carlos Carrasco | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-154) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.218 | 0.627 | 0.289 | 0.297 | SP vs. Left | 0.203 | 0.556 | 0.251 | 0.267 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.205 | 0.697 | 0.303 | 0.152 | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.647 | 0.283 | 0.27 |
| Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Nate Karns : FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,400
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 85.2 — SIERA: 3.88 — K%: 22.5% — BB%: 9.4% — FB Rate: 36.8% — HR/FB: 13.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 3.98 — K%: 19.7% — BB%: 7.4% — FB Rate: 34.1% — HR/FB: 10.0%
Cleveland Indians Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14) — Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.296 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 17)
Pitchers per PA: 3.93 (Rank: 3)
Analysis: Karns has pitched well this season, but he runs into a tough matchup against the Indians. Cleveland has been one of the best offenses in the American League all season and even though they have cooled off recently, they are still a poor matchup pitching-wise. The Indians have the 6th-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and they are ranked 3rd in pitches per plate appearance this season.
Pitcher Rating:54.9
Carlos Carrasco : FD: $8,800 — DK: $8,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 208.0 — SIERA: 2.69 — K%: 26.8% — BB%: 5.6% — FB Rate: 29.5% — HR/FB: 8.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.2 — SIERA: 3.04 — K%: 26.8% — BB%: 6.3% — FB Rate: 37.0% — HR/FB: 6.7%
Tampa Bay Rays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 24)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 21) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 14)
Pitchers per PA: 3.84 (Rank: 10)
Analysis: Carrasco has really pitched well this season and he is coming into tonight’s start in good form. Over the last month of play, he has a 3.04 SIERA with an impressive strikeout rate of 26.8%. He doesn’t walk many batters and he doesn’t give up many home runs, both of which are great to see when you are targeting a pitcher in daily fantasy. He draws a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Rays, who are ranked 22nd in wOBA and 24th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Pitcher Rating:88.6
Batter Grind Down
Tampa Bay
The Rays have one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight. They draw a very difficult matchup against Carlos Carrasco, who has held left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA over the past two seasons.
Cleveland
Michael Brantley : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 583 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 157
Last 14 Days: PA: 45 — wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.098 — wRC+: 124
Analysis: One of my favorite strategies in daily fantasy baseball is to buy low on players that are underpriced. Brantley is only $3,500 on FanDuel, which is too cheap for a hitter as talented as he is. Since the start of last season, he has a .391 wOBA and a .187 ISO against right-handed pitching. Brantley is a very safe cash game play tonight against Nate Karns.
Jason Kipnis
Salaries: FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 551 — wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.136 — wRC+: 135
Carlos Santana
Salaries: FD: $3,700 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 608 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 127
NY Mets at Atlanta – 7:35 PM EST
| NY Mets | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Jacob deGrom |  | Matt Wisler | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-140) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.233 | 0.637 | 0.285 | 0.244 | SP vs. Left | ||||
| SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.557 | 0.247 | 0.273 | SP vs. Right | ||||
| Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Jacob deGrom : FD: $10,800 — DK: $10,700
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 225.1 — SIERA: 3.08 — K%: 26.0% — BB%: 6.7% — FB Rate: 31.6% — HR/FB: 7.6%
Last 30 Days: IP: 37.1 — SIERA: 1.87 — K%: 35.1% — BB%: 3.0% — FB Rate: 27.5% — HR/FB: 4.5%
Atlanta Braves Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 3)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 17.7% (Rank: 3)
Pitchers per PA: 3.76 (Rank: 18)
Analysis: deGrom has been dominant recently with a 1.87 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 35.1% over the last month of play. He has been close to unhittable, which doesn’t bode well for the Braves’ offense tonight. The problem with deGrom is that he is facing an offense that has one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball. That’s not to say that he can’t strike 10+ hitters out, but the odds of that aren’t great against the Braves. deGrom is a top-four pitching option tonight, but I’d much rather target Chris Sale at home.
Pitcher Rating:85.2
Matt Wisler : FD: — DK: $6,100
New York Mets Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.301 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 19)
Pitchers per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 8)
Analysis: Wisler will be making his major league debut tonight against the Mets. He has pitched pretty well in the minors, but he doesn’t have an elite strikeout rate. He is projected as a mid-range starter in the majors. I typically like to take a wait and see approach with these young pitchers and that’s exactly what I will do tonight with Wisler.
Pitcher Rating:49.0
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Lucas Duda : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 675 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.248 — wRC+: 150
Last 14 Days: PA: 52 — wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 95
Analysis: Duda was the sole source of production for the Mets last night, as he homered against the Blue Jays. He has a .382 wOBA and a .248 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past two seasons. Tonight he faces Matt Wisler, who will be making his first career start at the major league level. If the nerves get the best of him, the Mets’ offense could have a nice outing against the rookie.
Travis d’Arnaud
Salaries: FD: $3,000 — DK: $4,200
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 384 — wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: 0.183 — wRC+: 111
Atlanta
As mentioned above, Jacob deGrom has been close to unhittable over the last month of play. He is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate. The Braves’ offense can safely be avoided tonight at home.
Chicago Cubs at Minnesota – 8:10 PM EST
| Chicago Cubs | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Kyle Hendricks |  | Phil Hughes | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIN (-109) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.236 | 0.627 | 0.278 | 0.158 | SP vs. Left | 0.257 | 0.672 | 0.294 | 0.197 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.251 | 0.659 | 0.293 | 0.192 | SP vs. Right | 0.295 | 0.767 | 0.334 | 0.196 |
| Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kyle Hendricks : FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 149.0 — SIERA: 3.73 — K%: 17.6% — BB%: 4.7% — FB Rate: 32.6% — HR/FB: 7.5%
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.0 — SIERA: 2.78 — K%: 23.8% — BB%: 3.3% — FB Rate: 27.9% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.285 (Rank: 25) — Strikeout Rate: 18.3% (Rank: 6)
Pitchers per PA: 3.79 (Rank: 16)
Analysis: Hendricks continues to pitch well for the Twins and no one seems to be noticing, not even the oddsmakers in Vegas. Over the last month of play, he has a 2.78 SIERA with a much-improved strikeout rate of 23.8%. If there was a different name attached to those numbers, we would all jump on the opportunity to target that pitcher at a price under $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’m expecting another quality outing from Hendricks, who draws a nice matchup against a struggling Twins’ offense.
Pitcher Rating:57.9
Phil Hughes : FD: $7,300 — DK: $7,200
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 292.1 — SIERA: 3.47 — K%: 19.6% — BB%: 2.1% — FB Rate: 40.1% — HR/FB: 8.4%
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 4.57 — K%: 11.7% — BB%: 2.9% — FB Rate: 35.7% — HR/FB: 12.5%
Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.343 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 25)
Pitchers per PA: 4.00 (Rank: 1)
Analysis: Hughes continues to struggle this season. Over the last month of play, he has a 4.57 SIERA with an extremely low strikeout rate of 11.7%. The gap between his fastball and his off-speed pitches continues to shrink and he has only generated a swinging strike rate of 5.3%. At this point, I want no part of Hughes, especially against a Cubs’ offense that can hit home runs in bunches.
Pitcher Rating:64.6
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
Kris Bryant : FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,600
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 209 — wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.182 — wRC+: 146
Last 14 Days: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.435 — ISO: 0.204 — wRC+: 178
Analysis: Bryant is riding a 13-game hitting streak, as the Cubs head to Minnesota to take on Phil Hughes and the Twins. This is a great spot to target Bryant. Not only is he swinging a hot bat, but he gets to face a struggling Hughes, that is a reverse-splits fly-ball pitcher. The Cubs don’t have the highest team total tonight, but they make for a very interesting stack in tournaments.
Anthony Rizzo
Salaries: FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,800
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 671 — wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: 0.260 — wRC+: 151
Dexter Fowler
Salaries: FD: $3,300 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 619 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.134 — wRC+: 105
Miguel Montero
Salaries: FD: $2,800 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 612 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 104
Kyle Schwarber
Salaries: FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,400
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 8 — wOBA: 0.796 — ISO: 0.625 — wRC+: 423
Minnesota
As mentioned above, Kyle Hendricks is a much better pitcher than most people (including the oddsmakers) give him credit for. He has held left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA over the past two seasons and the Twins are one of the worst offenses against right-handed pitching (26th in wOBA).
Texas at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST
| Texas | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||
 | Colby Lewis |  | Chris Sale | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHW (-177) | 7 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.302 | 0.842 | 0.365 | 0.143 | SP vs. Left | 0.182 | 0.45 | 0.211 | 0.347 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.262 | 0.751 | 0.326 | 0.224 | SP vs. Right | 0.208 | 0.599 | 0.267 | 0.304 |
| Batter Splits | TEX BvP | TEX vs L | Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Colby Lewis : FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,800
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 250.2 — SIERA: 4.18 — K%: 17.7% — BB%: 5.9% — FB Rate: 45.3% — HR/FB: 8.7%
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 4.34 — K%: 14.8% — BB%: 2.2% — FB Rate: 47.2% — HR/FB: 7.8%
Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.252 (Rank: 30) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 27)
Pitchers per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 22)
Analysis: I’d really like to say something positive about Colby Lewis today, but not even this clock is right twice a day. Lewis was shelled in his last outing against the White Sox, he struggles with hitters from both sides of the plate, and he is a massive underdog tonight with Chris Sale pitching opposite him. Anything can happen in baseball, but it would be very surprising to see him pick up a win tonight.
Pitcher Rating:48.1
Chris Sale : FD: $11,000 — DK: $11,900
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 254.2 — SIERA: 2.53 — K%: 31.1% — BB%: 5.9% — FB Rate: 40.6% — HR/FB: 8.0%
Last 30 Days: IP: 37.1 — SIERA: 1.43 — K%: 43.3% — BB%: 5.0% — FB Rate: 43.7% — HR/FB: 9.7%
Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 21)
Pitchers per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 13)
Analysis: There are a few aces on the bump tonight, but it’s hard to argue against Sale being the top pitching option on the board. He has been dominant over the last month of play with a 1.43 SIERA and a flat out ridiculous strikeout rate of 43.3%. Sale has always pitched well at home at U.S. Cellular Field and he has already dominated the Rangers this season, striking out 13 batters over seven scoreless innings of work. He is the chalk play tonight in cash games.
Pitcher Rating:98.8
Batter Grind Down
Texas
Chris Sale dominated this Rangers’ lineup in their last meeting and with the way he has been pitching, it’s hard to expect a different result this time around. Avoid the Rangers tonight in lieu of offenses with better matchups.
Chicago White Sox
Jose Abreu : FD: $3,600 — DK: $5,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 669 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.241 — wRC+: 149
Last 14 Days: PA: 51 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.229 — wRC+: 132
Analysis: You wouldn’t think a player with his power would go as under-owned as Abreu does. Maybe it’s the fact that he plays first base, but still he seems to get overlooked even in favorable matchups. Abreu has a .388 wOBA and a .241 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against Colby Lewis, who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher.
Adam Eaton
Salaries: FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 580 — wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.124 — wRC+: 114
Boston at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST
| Boston | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Eduardo Rodriguez |  | Yohan Pino | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-123) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.167 | 0.6 | 0.262 | 0.263 | SP vs. Left | 0.263 | 0.697 | 0.309 | 0.191 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.181 | 0.516 | 0.243 | 0.207 | SP vs. Right | 0.26 | 0 | 0.322 | 0.212 |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Eduardo Rodriguez : FD: $7,800 — DK: $6,600
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 25.1 — SIERA: 4.02 — K%: 21.8% — BB%: 9.9% — FB Rate: 35.8% — HR/FB: 8.3%
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.1 — SIERA: 4.02 — K%: 21.8% — BB%: 9.9% — FB Rate: 35.8% — HR/FB: 8.3%
Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 14.5% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 13.6% (Rank: 1)
Pitchers per PA: 3.66 (Rank: 29)
Analysis: After three stellar starts, Rodriguez was battered around by the Blue Jays in Toronto. He gave up nine runs in that start. While we can give him a pass for struggling in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, I’m worried that he won’t be in the best mindset for tonight’s outing against the Royals. Not only do the Royals strikeout fewer times than any team against left-handed pitching, but they also have a .318 team wOBA against southpaws this season.
Pitcher Rating:52.3
Yohan Pino : FD: $5,200 — DK:
Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 74.1 — SIERA: 3.83 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 5.1% — FB Rate: 48.0% — HR/FB: 8.2%
Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 16.4% (Rank: 2)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.6% (Rank: 8)
Pitchers per PA: 3.97 (Rank: 2)
Analysis: Pino will be making his first start of the season, after making six appearances out of the bullpen. His numbers over the last two seasons aren’t terrible, but a lot of that work was in relief work. He’s an easy pitcher to avoid in my eyes, as the Red Sox have the 2nd-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Boston also averages the 2nd-most pitches per plate appearance this season.
Pitcher Rating:50.9
Batter Grind Down
Boston
The Red Sox are small underdogs tonight in a game that features a relatively low run total of 8.0 runs. Kaufmann Stadium is one of the toughest ballparks to score runs in, which is why I’ll have fairly limited exposure to the Red Sox tonight.
David Ortiz
Salaries: FD: $2,800 — DK: $4,000
Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 584 — wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.246 — wRC+: 137
Brock Holt
Salaries: FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,300
Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 451 — wOBA: 0.327 — ISO: 0.103 — wRC+: 106
Kansas City
Even though the Royals’ offense appears to have their mojo back, they draw a difficult matchup against the impressive rookie, Eduardo Rodriguez. The sample size is still small, but so far he has held left and right-handed hitters under a .265 wOBA.
Lorenzo Cain
Salaries: FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,500
Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 223 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 143
Alcides Escobar
Salaries: FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,900
Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 218 — wOBA: 0.308 — ISO: 0.102 — wRC+: 95