MLB Grind Down: Saturday, August 15th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-08-16 20:53:05

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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NY Yankees at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST

NY Yankees					Toronto
			Masahiro Tanaka					Marco Estrada
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-120)					8.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.228	0.646	0.282	24.3%	SP vs. Left	0.218	0.672	0.296	19.00%
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.700	0.304	25.4%	SP vs. Right	0.234	0.726	0.318	20.60%
Batter Splits	NYY BvP		NYY vs R		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Masahiro Tanaka

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 8)

Tanaka has continued to pitch well while giving up way too many long balls. Tanaka brings a 3.29 SIERA into this matchup with the Blue Jays, but the big problem has been his 1.63 HR/9 so far this season. This could become a problem at Rogers Centre today against the Blue Jays offense that is absolutely crushing the ball lately and has a .331 wOBA against right-handed pitching. No pitcher seems to be safe against this offense at the moment and Tanaka is a tough start for the price. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,900 FD, $10,500 DK

Marco Estrada

New York Yankees vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 10)

Estrada is coming off shutting down this Yankees squad in New York in his last start (6.1 innings). He has pitched well recently, posting a 2.41 ERA over the last month of play. The advanced stats show some major regression in order for Estrada as he has a 4.81 SIERA during that span and limited upside due to a 17% strikeout rate. In Rogers Centre against the Yankees, he is an easy avoid. Rating = 5

Salaries: $8,700 FD, $8,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Estrada has kept batters from both sides of the plate to a wOBA of under .300 on the season and has done a much better job this year of limiting his home runs against. Yet, they are in Rogers Centre today and the Blue Jays are just slight favorites. The big names are in play for the Yankees on an early slate of just two games.

Elite Plays:

Jacoby Ellsbury
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.311 — ISO: 0.094 — OBP: 0.335

Brett Gardner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.163 — OBP: 0.375

Secondary Plays:

Mark Teixeira
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.404— ISO: 0.342 — OBP: 0.351

Alex Rodriguez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.197 — OBP: 0.347

Toronto

With the early slate being only two games, this should be the game you target for offense. Tanaka has allowed 18 home runs in only 16 starts, putting him in a very tough spot against this offense that is on cruise control since the Tulowitzki trade. It is tough to pay the high price against such a good pitcher, but the slate may force taking these guys, and the way they are playing it may not be a terrible idea.

Elite Plays:

Troy Tulowitzki
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.244 — OBP: 0.352

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.299 — OBP: 0.357

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.380 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.350

Secondary Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.249 — OBP: 0.344

Russell Martin
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.187 — OBP: 0.306

Seattle at Boston – 1:35 PM EST

Seattle					Boston
			Felix Hernandez					Wade Miley
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-133)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.212	0.575	0.257	22.8%	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.689	0.307	18.30%
SP vs. Right	0.209	0.592	0.263	29.6%	SP vs. Right	0.268	0.769	0.337	19.90%
Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L		Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez

Boston Red Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 16.8% (Rank: 2)

While it may be a down season for him, King Felix is still putting up some solid numbers. He comes into this game with a SIERA of 3.16 on the season while continuing to strike batters out at a high clip (23.7%). With only two games being played on the early slate, Felix is clearly the safest option against a beat up Red Sox offense. Rating = 8

Salaries: $11,200 FD, $11,800 DK

Wade Miley

Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 25)

Wade Miley has really struggled recently for the Red Sox. Over the last month, a winless Miley has a SIERA of 4.98 in seven starts. This Mariners team has struggled against lefty bats all season and is ranked in the bottom third of the league in both wOBA and strikeout rate against lefties. With that said, the Mariners are close to -150 favorites this afternoon with a total of 8, making Miley a hard start. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $7,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Seattle does not have the greatest offense in the league, but for the morning slate, they have the highest team total at 4.59 runs. Attacking the right-handed bats is the way to go as Miley has allowed a wOBA of .349 to righties this season.

Elite Plays:

Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.488 — ISO: 0.343— OBP: 0.454

Austin Jackson
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.155 — OBP: 0.300

Secondary Plays:

Franklin Gutierrez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.396— ISO: 0.265 — OBP: 0.346

Mark Trumbo
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.118 — OBP: 0.278

Boston

This Red Sox offense is coming off a huge offensive explosion last night, yet now has to face King Felix who has kept batters to a wOBA of under .297 from both sides of the plate. If you are playing the early slate, it is tough to pay for the Red Sox bats as the other three teams’ totals are so high.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

David Ortiz
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.284 — OBP: 0.395

Brock Holt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.345

Oakland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM EST

Oakland					Baltimore
			Chris Bassitt					Miguel Gonzalez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (-139)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.229	0.649	0.296	19.4%	SP vs. Left	0.258	0.777	0.340	16.50%
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.647	0.288	16.9%	SP vs. Right	0.254	0.749	0.329	18.10%
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Bassitt

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 11)
Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 28)

Bassitt has pitched well for the Athletics in his seven starts and twelve appearances this year. Since becoming a starter in late June, Bassitt has an ERA of 2.48, with a SIERA of 3.98. During this time, Bassitt also has a 20.3% strikeout rate. He has a tough matchup against the Orioles in Camden Yards, but they do strike out a lot. There are a lot of options on the night slate, making Bassitt a bit tough to put on your radar tonight, but could be a long shot contrarian tournament play. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7,000 FD, $6,400 DK

Miguel Gonzalez

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 4)

Gonzalez is not a pitcher that should be on too many people’s lists tonight. He has a below average SIERA (4.26) and strikeout rate (18.2%) coming into this matchup. He has struggled recently giving up 12 earned runs in his last three starts (13.1 innings). He has a tough matchup against a patient A’s squad and should be avoided tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,100 FD, $6,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The Athletics have a decent matchup against Gonzalez tonight who has allowed 20 home runs in his 21 starts this year. He allows a wOBA of .338+ from both sides of the plate this year, putting a number of A’s players into play tonight.

Elite Plays:

Stephen Vogt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.357

Billy Burns
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.075 — OBP: 0.322

Secondary Plays:

Danny Valencia
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.548 — ISO: 0.500 — OBP: 0.421

Josh Reddick
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.190 — OBP: 0.355

Baltimore

Bassitt has pitched well this year (under .287 wOBA allowed from both sides of the plate), but does come into this game as a solid underdog in a game with a total of eight. The Orioles have a big team total of 4.63 on the night slate as Vegas believes they should be able to put up some runs against Bassitt tonight.

Elite Plays:

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.232 — OBP: 0.366

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.299 — OBP: 0.336

Secondary Plays:

Adam Jones
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.193 — OBP: 0.304

Gerardo Parra
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.280 — ISO: 0.156 — OBP: 0.286

Philadelphia at Milwaukee – 7:10 PM EST

Philadelphia					Milwaukee
			Jerome Williams					Jimmy Nelson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-170)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.297	0.786	0.348	13.9%	SP vs. Left	0.283	0.822	0.355	17.60%
SP vs. Right	0.296	0.000	0.359	15.7%	SP vs. Right	0.230	0.629	0.282	21.60%
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jerome Williams

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 22)

Williams is always a pitcher we can look to target offenses against any time he takes the field. He has a 4.51 SIERA on the season and rarely strikes batters out (12.9%). Williams is a big underdog tonight against the Brewers and should be avoided in all formats. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $5,100 FD, $4,000 DK

Jimmy Nelson

Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 12)

Nelson is a high upside, inconsistent starter, and you don’t always know what you are going to get. He has a 3.85 SIERA on the year, with a solid 20.5% strikeout rate. Over the last month of play, Nelson has pitched well as he has had four starts with zero earned runs. During this run, he has held a SIERA of 3.34 and a strikeout rate of 23.6%. While the matchup should be good, the Phillies have been tougher on starting pitching recently, yet Nelson makes a solid SP2 tonight. Rating = 6.5

Salaries: $8,000 FD, $8,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

This Phillies offense has a team total of under four in this matchup against Nelson, yet Cesar Hernandez has played very well and is batting .326 in the month of August. He is worth a look as a contrarian option at second tonight.

Elite Plays:

Cesar Hernandez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.303 — ISO: 0.085 — OBP: 0.333

Secondary Plays:

Chase Utley
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.252 — ISO: 0.107 — OBP: 0.270

Milwaukee

The Brewers are big favorites against Jerome Williams and the Phillies tonight due to Williams being such a poor pitching option. This Brewers offense has let us down in the past (last night), but are in a great spot to put up a solid offensive outing against Williams who has allowed a wOBA of .348+ from both sides of the plate.

Elite Plays:

Adam Lind
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.232 — OBP: 0.380

Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.211 — OBP: 0.330

Khris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.362 — ISO: 0.229 — OBP: 0.348

Secondary Plays:

Jonathan Lucroy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.094 — OBP: 0.319

Scooter Gennett
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.140 — OBP: 0.300

Pittsburgh at NY Mets – 7:10 PM EST

Pittsburgh					NY Mets
			Charlie Morton					Jonathon Niese
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM (-109)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.262	0.744	0.330	17.5%	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.239	0.666	0.298	17.8%	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits			PIT vs L		Batter Splits	NYM BvP		NYM vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton

New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 20)

Morton is a solid starter, but lacks the upside for daily fantasy usage. Morton rarely strikes batters out as he sports a 15.2% strikeout rate on the season. He does get a solid matchup against the Mets, but their offense has improved recently. Morton is a SP2 tonight with the understanding that he is not going to win you tournaments on his own. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $6,300 DK

Jonathon Niese

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 19)
Strikeout Rate: 22.9% (Rank: 23)

Niese has been a much-improved pitcher recently. Over the last month of play, Niese has a 3.56 SIERA over the span of six starts. Niese does, however, bring a low 15.6% strikeout rate into this matchup with the Pirates who, although having some very solid righty bats, have struggled against lefty starters. This game has a total of 7.5 with the Mets being slight favorites, which puts Niese into play as a decent SP2 tonight. Rating = 6

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

This Pirates offense on paper should be much better against left-handed pitching than they have been this season. They will still come into this game with the likes of McCutchen and Marte taking the field, who are both in play against Niese tonight. Vegas does project this to be one of the lower scoring games of the night, so limit your expectations.

Elite Plays:

Andrew McCutchen
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389 — ISO: 0.178 — OBP: 0.398

Starling Marte
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.247 — OBP: 0.363

Secondary Plays:

Jung-ho Kang
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.361

Neil Walker
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.281— ISO: 0.058 — OBP: 0.311

NY Mets

This Mets squad has been better offensively since the Cespedes trade and have a decent matchup against Morton who they should be able to put the ball in play against tonight. Target the lefty bats in this game as Morton has allowed a wOBA of .384 to lefties on the season.

Elite Plays:

Lucas Duda
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.227 — OBP: 0.343

Curtis Granderson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.231 — OBP: 0.384

Secondary Plays:

Daniel Murphy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.160 — OBP: 0.354

Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.345 — ISO: 0.194 — OBP: 0.306

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