MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 11 - Page Three

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-07-11 15:09:17

Washington at Baltimore – 7:15 PM EST

Washington					Baltimore
			Jordan Zimmermann					Miguel Gonzalez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.268	0.683	0.302	0.19	SP vs. Left	0.252	0.754	0.331	0.16
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.593	0.263	0.228	SP vs. Right	0.241	0.727	0.321	0.185
Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs R		Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jordan Zimmermann

Baltimore Orioles vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 7)
Strikeout Rate: 22.7% (Rank: 28)

Zimmermann has pitched well this season and holds a 3.89 xFIP and an average 17.5% strikeout rate. Recently, he has been stellar as he has only allowed one earned run over his last three starts (22.2 innings). The strikeouts have been hit or miss in games and they may be a bit easier today against the Orioles, who have a 22.7% strikeout rate. He is in a tough spot tonight and there are better options. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $9,200 DK

Miguel Gonzalez

Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 23)

Gonzalez is a tough play today, as he brings his 4.26 xFIP into this matchup against the Nationals. Although they are injury ridden, the Nationals still have have Harper and some other decent bats in their lineup. Gonzalez is not someone we want to target since he is way too home run prone (15 in 15 starts) and does not make up for it with strikeouts. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,300 FD, $6,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Miguel Gonzalez allows a wOBA to .312+ from both sides of the plate and has a home run rate of 1.53 HR/9 this year. This Nationals squad could be a sneaky stack tonight.

Elite Plays:

Bryce Harper
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.495 — ISO: 0.383 — OBP: 0.470

Yunel Escobar
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.359 — ISO: 0.089 — OBP: 0.398

Clint Robinson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.153 — OBP: 0.319

Secondary Plays:

Ian Desmond
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.262 — ISO: 0.130 — OBP: 0.255

Baltimore

Zimmerman has struggled a bit with lefties this year (.325 wOBA allowed). This game does feature a close money line with a total of eight, which means some runs should be scored by both sides.

Elite Plays:

Manny Machado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.251— OBP: 0.360

Chris Davis
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.340 — ISO: 0.249 — OBP: 0.318

Secondary Plays:

Matt Wieters
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.323

San Diego at Texas – 9:05 PM EST

San Diego					Texas
			James Shields					Colby Lewis
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TEX (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.266	0.756	0.332	0.198	SP vs. Left	0.297	0.828	0.358	0.142
SP vs. Right	0.236	0.692	0.303	0.238	SP vs. Right	0.274	0.783	0.339	0.215
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields

Texas Rangers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 8)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 19)

Shields comes into this game with a solid 3.21 xFIP and an elite 26.9% strikeout rate. He now has to take these numbers into hitter friendly Globe Life, which may be difficult for him. as he has allowed lefties a wOBA of .385 so far this year. The upside is tremendous, but the matchup and park factors bump his value down quite a bit tonight. . Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $9,200 FD, $8,000 DK

Colby Lewis

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.290 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 26)

Colby was rocked for 10 earned runs in his last start and that is what I think we assume should happen to him each time he takes the field. It has definitely not been the norm this year, as he comes into this game with a 4.24 SIERA on the season. With that said, he is one of the least trusted pitchers in the league and the wheels may start to come off. Even with the good matchup today, Lewis is not an option in any format. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,200 FD, $5,900 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have one of the best matchups on the board today when they face off against Lewis. He was blown up in his last start, which could lead to a couple bad starts that we have been expecting, and he has allowed a .300+ wOBA to both sides of the plate.

Elite Plays:

Justin Upton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.356

Yonder Alonso
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.333 — ISO: 0.082 — OBP: 0.383

Secondary Plays:

Matt Kemp
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.127 — OBP: 0.287

Jedd Gyorko
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.250 — ISO: 0.083 — OBP: 0.261

Texas

This Rangers squad hits right-handed pitching much better and are in a good spot today against Shields, who has allowed a wOBA of .385 to left-handed bats this year.

Elite Plays:

Prince Fielder
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.437 — ISO: 0.186 — OBP: 0.452

Shin-Soo Choo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.213 — OBP: 0.358

Secondary Plays:

Josh Hamilton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.250 — OBP: 0.324

Mitch Moreland
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.279 — OBP: 0.339

Philadelphia at San Francisco – 10:05 PM EST

Philadelphia					San Francisco
			David Buchanan					Ryan Vogelsong
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-193)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.232	0.635	0.289	0.114	SP vs. Left	0.276	0.813	0.356	0.187
SP vs. Right	0.298	0	0.37	0.15	SP vs. Right	0.221	0.663	0.295	0.182
Batter Splits	PHI BvP		PHI vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Buchanan

San Francisco Giants vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 5)

The Phillies are going with Buchanan this Saturday, as they let go one of our favorite stack against options in O’Sullivan. Things do not get much better with Buchanan, as he has made five starts this year and has a 8.76 ERA (5.70 xFIP). The Giants are a solid lefty-heavy lineup that should get to Buchanan early today and he should be avoided. Rating = 3

Salaries: $4,900 FD, $4,000 DK

Ryan Vogelsong

Philadelphia Phillies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.283 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 19.1% (Rank: 10)

Vogelsong is an average pitcher and a below average option for daily fantasy. He usually gives up a few runs each start (4.61 xFIP), but the bigger problem is his below average strikeout rate of 16.5%. This caps his upside and even though he has a decent matchup against a Phillies squad that is ranked last in team wOBA against righties. He is a huge favorite and could make a SP2 today, but with some risk. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $6,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies offense is tough to trust in any format, but they do feature a few cheap bats that you could fit into some tournament lineups.

Elite Plays:

None

Secondary Plays:

Maikel Franco
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.205 — OBP: 0.326

Cesar Hernandez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 — ISO: 0.088 — OBP: 0.346

Ben Revere
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 — ISO: 0.091 — OBP: 0.352

San Francisco

The Giants are in a great spot today against Buchanan, who has allowed a wOBA of .350+ to hitters from both sides of the plate. They are a great offense to look for production from in the late slate, as they are coming off a monster performance last night.

Elite Plays:

Brandon Belt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.389— ISO: 0.235— OBP: 0.372

Buster Posey
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.386 — ISO: 0.198 — OBP: 0.388

Joe Panik
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.157 — OBP: 0.372

Secondary Plays:

Angel Pagan
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.242 — ISO: 0.067 — OBP: 0.257

Hunter Pence
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.182 — OBP: 0.352

LA Angels at Seattle – 10:10 PM EST

LA Angels					Seattle
			C.J. Wilson					Hisashi Iwakuma
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SEA (-108)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.217	0.644	0.289	0.231	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.734	0.321	0.188
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.728	0.324	0.193	SP vs. Right	0.224	0.639	0.278	0.235
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	SEA BvP		SEA vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

C.J. Wilson

Seattle Mariners vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 10)

Wilson comes into this game with a 3.82 ERA, which is directly backed up by his 3.87 xFIP. He has pitched well in his last five games, as he has had a 3.56 xFIP and a 23% strikeout rate. The upside is clearly there for Wilson, as he takes on a Mariners squad that Wilson has dominated twice already this year (1.20 ERA in 15 innings). Rating = 6

Salaries: $7,900 FD, $7,400 DK

Hisashi Iwakuma

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: .310 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 12)

Iwakuma struggled mightily in his first start since April. He was crushed by the home run, which was a problem prior to his DL stint, as he allowed four home runs in just five innings. This Angels squad has some big bats in it, and it is better to take a wait and see approach with Iwakuma tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $7,500 FD, $6,300 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Iwakuma was lit up in his first start and may still be looking to find his groove in this one. If the home run trend continues, this Angels offense looks to be in a great position to put some runs and points up on the board tonight.

Elite Plays:

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.415 — ISO: 0.292 — OBP: 0.397

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 — ISO: 0.150 — OBP: 0.315

Secondary Plays:

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.397 — ISO: 0.307 — OBP: 0.351

Johnny Giavotella
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.295 — ISO: 0.086 — OBP: 0.313

Seattle

The Mariners bats are not in a great spot, other than Nelson Cruz, who has crushed any and all left-handed pitching this year with a ridiculous .531 wOBA and .435 ISO.

Elite Plays:

Nelson Cruz
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.531 — ISO: 0.435 — OBP: 0.472

Secondary Plays:

None

Milwaukee at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Milwaukee					LA Dodgers
			Taylor Jungmann					Brandon Beachy
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.661	0.299	0.200	SP vs. Left
SP vs. Right	0.203	0.629	0.279	0.158	SP vs. Right
Batter Splits	MIL BvP		MIL vs R		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Taylor Jungmann

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.340 (Rank: 1)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 16)

Jungmann comes into this game with a 2.43 ERA. His xFIP is more than a full point higher at 3.99, which shows some regression is in order, and this could be the start it happens in. He has to go into Dodger Stadium against the league’s best offense against right-handed pitching. Avoid him tonight. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $6,800 DK

Brandon Beachy

Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 21)

Beachy will be making his first start of the year tonight against the Brewers. The last time he pitched in the majors was in 2013 and has a career xFIP of 3.54. With that said, starting anyone after a long layoff is not something that leads to a lot of success in fantasy sports, and this Brewers offense is much improved from where it was. Although he is a big favorite, it is better to use a stay off approach tonight. Rating = 5

Salaries: $5,900 FD, $7,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

You never know what you are going to get from a guy that has not pitched in a while. Yet, this Brewers squad has some bats that could get to Beachy early and chase him from his first start back.

Elite Plays:

Adam Lind
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.401 — ISO: 0.246 — OBP: 0.387

Secondary Plays:

Gerardo Parra
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357— ISO: 0.183 — OBP: 0.343

Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.218 — OBP: 0.325

LA Dodgers

Jungmann has allowed a wOBA of less than .300 to both sides of the plate this year. This Dodgers offense has lefties in it that can hit any pitcher and should be in a good spot today as big-time favorites in this matchup.

Elite Plays:

Adrian Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.256 — OBP: 0.374

Joc Pederson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.383 — ISO: 0.283 — OBP: 0.375

Yasmani Grandal
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.409 — ISO: 0.275 — OBP: 0.398

Secondary Plays:

Andre Ethier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.216 — OBP: 0.381

Justin Turner
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.454 — ISO: 0.295 — OBP: 0.413

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