MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 11th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.
Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.
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Toronto at Kansas City – 2:10 PM EST
| Toronto | Kansas City | ||||||||
 | Mark Buehrle |  | Chris Young | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-105) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.752 | 0.329 | 13.7% | SP vs. Left | 0.250 | 0.778 | 0.341 | 13.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.729 | 0.318 | 13.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.181 | 0.602 | 0.262 | 18.60% |
| Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs R | Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kansas City Royals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 12)
Strikeout Rate: 15.3% (Rank: 1)
Buehrle has been pitching very well since the month of June began. He has not allowed more than two earned runs over a seven-game streak and has an xFIP of 3.30 (1.41 ERA) during that span. The problems with Buehrle today are the matchup against the Royals and his continued lack of strikeouts (12.7%). He is a SP2 today with a very low upside. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7,800 FD, $7,200 DK
Chris Young
Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.238 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 14)
Young is not someone to think long about starting this afternoon in any format. He provides very little upside, as he will not pitch deep into this ballgame and will have one of the toughest matchups on the board against the Blue Jays, who are the fifth-ranked offense in terms of wOBA against righties. Avoid him today. Rating = 4
Salaries: $6,300 FD, $5,200 DK
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
This Blue Jays offense was shut down by Danny Duffy last night. The chances of Young making it back to back scoreless games are highly unlikely. Young has pitched well this year, but the big bats are always in play against any average pitcher.
Elite Plays:
Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.114 — OBP: 0.319
Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.373 — ISO: 0.271 — OBP: 0.372
Secondary Plays:
Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.218 — OBP: 0.345
Edwin Encarnacion
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.315
Kansas City
The Royals are in a decent spot today against Buehrle, who has pitched well this year but is still allowing way too many base runners and actually giving up a wOBA of .349 to left-handed bats. I do not love the Royals offense today, but they could be a decent play this afternoon with everyone jumping on the Coors game.
Elite Plays:
Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.417 — ISO: 0.187 — OBP: 0.433
Salvador Perez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.264 — ISO: 0.165 — OBP: 0.224
Secondary Plays:
Kendrys Morales
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: 0.084 — OBP: 0.359
Detroit at Minnesota – 4:05 PM EST
| Detroit | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Alfredo Simon |  | Phil Hughes | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIN (-132) | 8.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.267 | 0.776 | 0.338 | 15.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.673 | 0.294 | 19.10% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.228 | 0.643 | 0.285 | 17.3% | SP vs. Right | 0.287 | 0.760 | 0.330 | 19.30% |
| Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Minnesota Twins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.303 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 20)
I think it is simple to say that the wheels have fallen off for Simon recently. Over his last four starts, he has allowed 23 earned runs over just 20.1 innings pitched. The matchup provides a bit of upside, as the Twins lack the left-handed bats that Simon struggles against (.378 wOBA). Yet, he is tough to trust until he can show us a bit of a rebound from the recent poor play. He is a tournament option only. Rating = 4.5
Salaries: $7,800 FD, $5,400 DK
Detroit Tigers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 9)
Hughes has simply been an average starter for the Twins. He has a SIERA of 4.26 on the year, but his strikeout rate has dropped to a very low 14.4%. Although Hughes has kept runs off the board lately (2.48 ERA in his last four starts), he has a tough matchup today against the Tigers, who even without Miggy have the top ranking offense in terms of wOBA over the last 14 days (.380). The upside for taking the risk is not high enough to warrant playing Hughes today. Rating = 5
Salaries: $7,700 FD, $7,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Detroit
This Tigers offense has been extremely hot even without Miguel Cabrera in the lineup recently. Hughes has pitched well, but this offense should still be able to produce, and they make solid tournament plays today, as Hughes has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career (.348 wOBA allowed to righties in 2015).
Elite Plays:
J.D. Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.292— OBP: 0.336
Ian Kinsler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316— ISO: 0.100 — OBP: 0.340
Secondary Plays:
Victor Martinez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.246 — ISO: 0.082 — OBP: 0.280
Yoenis Cespedes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.371 — ISO: 0.204 — OBP: 0.344
Minnesota
The Twins are big favorites today, and that could be attributed to the struggles of Simon recently. He has allowed an average of .374 against over his last four games, which puts a number of Twins bats in line to produce today.
Elite Plays:
Brian Dozier
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: 0.264 — OBP: 0.322
Miguel Sano
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.601 — ISO: 0.267 — OBP: 0.632
Secondary Plays:
Eddie Rosario
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 — ISO: 0.153 — OBP: 0.291
Torii Hunter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.339 — ISO: 0.264 — OBP: 0.324
Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Chris Sale |  | Jon Lester | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (0) | 0.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.168 | 0.417 | 0.197 | 35.8% | SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.716 | 0.316 | 25.00% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.210 | 0.602 | 0.267 | 30.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.646 | 0.286 | 24.10% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Chicago Cubs vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 4)
Strikeout Rate: 21.2% (Rank: 17)
If anyone was questioning how good Sale has been this year, his start on Monday hopefully closed the book on that thought. He had the toughest matchup on the board facing the Blue Jays, and went and pitching a complete game, allowing just two earned runs. Sale has been ridiculous this year with a 2.25 SIERA heading into this game. The scariest part of his most recent play is the fact that over his last nine games he has a strikeout rate of 39.6%. He now heads into a matchup with the team that has struck out the most in the majors this year. He is an elite play in a great spot today and is at the top of the list for starters this afternoon. Rating = 9.5
Salaries: $11,600 FD, $12,500 DK
Chicago White Sox vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.257 (Rank: 30)
Strikeout Rate: 22.4% (Rank: 20)
The big-time lefty for the other Chicago squad, Lester has had a pretty solid season as well. Lester holds a SIERA of 3.37 after his 17 starts this year. He is pitching very well over his last two games (14 innings, 0 earned runs) and now has an elite matchup against the White Sox, who have struggled mightily against lefties. The win is going to be tough, as run support should be minimal, but Lester could be viewed as a solid tournament play on sites that value the win less. Rating = 7.5
Salaries: $8,900 FD, $9,500 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Lester has pitched very well even though he has still allowed a wOBA of .300+ to both sides of the plate. He is a slight favorite against the mighty Sale today. The two big righties in the lineup are in tournament play contention only.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
Jose Abreu
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.343 — ISO: 0.179 — OBP: 0.343
Avisail Garcia
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.133 — OBP: 0.349
Chicago Cubs
Sale has been unbelievable lately and has allowed an overall Batting Average Against of .170 over his last 10 starts. Avoid the Cubs bats this afternoon.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
None
Arizona at NY Mets – 4:10 PM EST
| Arizona | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Patrick Corbin |  | Matt Harvey | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-155) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.667 | 0.000 | 0.717 | 0.0% | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.724 | 0.315 | 25.60% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.333 | 0.882 | 0.377 | 16.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.229 | 0.607 | 0.265 | 22.20% |
| Batter Splits | ARI BvP | ARI vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
New York Mets. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.299 (Rank: 22)
Strikeout Rate: 23.5% (Rank: 26)
Corbin is a guy we want to keep an eye on going into the All-Star break, as he could be a nice play for a string of starts if his salary stays relatively low. Right now, he is going to most likely be on a pitch count, as he was on a 90 count in his first start and only made it to 76. I do not foresee him pitching too deep into this game, which sadly limits his upside in a good matchup against the Mets. Keep Corbin on your radar going forward, but he is not ready for daily use yet. Rating = 5.5
Salaries: $6,700 FD, $6,500 DK
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 18)
Harvey has continued to string quality starts together this year. He has a 3.26 SIERA on the year to go along with his solid 23.8% strikeout rate. Harvey has a decent matchup against the Diamondbacks, who are ranked around the league average in wOBA and K rate against righties. If you are going to pay up for your starter this afternoon, Sale may be the better option, but Harvey should be safe for a cheaper price, as he is a -160 favorite with a 6.5 total. Rating = 8
Salaries: $10,300 FD, $10,600 DK
Batter Grind Down
Arizona
This game features the lowest total of the slate and this Diamondbacks offense is a big underdog. Avoid the bats this afternoon.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
None
NY Mets
The Mets are not exactly a powerhouse of righties and are in the bottom third of the league in wOBA and strikeout rate. They do have a few guys that should make solid value plays against the young lefty, since they should get pushed up in the lineup.
Elite Plays:
None
Secondary Plays:
Ruben Tejada
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: 0.125 — OBP: 0.333
Wilmer Flores
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.239 — OBP: 0.340
Atlanta at Colorado – 4:10 PM EST
| Atlanta | Colorado | ||||||||
 | Matt Wisler |  | Jorge De La Rosa | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| COL (-140) | 10.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.637 | 0.283 | 24.10% | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.240 | 0.743 | 0.328 | 17.60% | ||||
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs L | Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.334 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 13)
Wisler has been average in his first four career starts. During this span, he has a 4.53 xFIP and a disappointingly low 14.6% strikeout rate. This will be his first trip to Coors, and he should be avoided due to the park factors. Rating = 2.5
Salaries: $6,000 FD, $5,700 DK
Jorge De La Rosa
Atlanta Braves vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.282 (Rank: 29)
Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 19)
De La Rosa’s numbers at Coors are, unlike last year, terrible; he’s allowed six home runs in only eight starts. Avoid him this afternoon. Rating = 3.5
Salaries: $6,600 FD, $6,800 DK
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
De La Rosa is tough, as he does have the ability at times to shut down offenses in Coors Field. That being said, he can also give up a few home runs and 5-6 runs as well. I like the Colorado offense a lot more in this game, but I would not argue with throwing any of the Braves bats in your lineup either.
Elite Plays:
Juan Uribe
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.410 — ISO: 0.346 — OBP: 0.367
Chris Johnson
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398— ISO: 0.119 — OBP: 0.409
Cameron Maybin
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.193 — OBP: 0.373
Secondary Plays:
Jonny Gomes
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.377 — ISO: 0.167 — OBP: 0.421
Andrelton Simmons
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.176 — ISO: 0.019 — OBP: 0.207
Colorado
Wisler will be going to Coors for the first time and has allowed bad numbers to both sides of the plate this year. All the usual suspects are in play today, as they are projected to be the highest scoring offense of the slate.
Elite Plays:
Nolan Arenado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: 0.349 — OBP: 0.325
Troy Tulowitzki
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.140 — OBP: 0.335
Charlie Blackmon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.379 — ISO: 0.188 — OBP: 0.380
Carlos Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.365 — ISO: 0.230 — OBP: 0.336
Secondary Plays:
D.J. LeMahieu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: 0.110 — OBP: 0.345