MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 13 - Page Two
Washington at Milwaukee – 4:10 PM EST
| Washington | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Joe Ross |  | Jimmy Nelson | ||||||
| Right | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIL (-123) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.417 | 0.917 | 0.401 | 0.083 | SP vs. Left | 0.274 | 0.846 | 0.365 | 0.182 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.111 | 0.222 | 0.098 | 0.333 | SP vs. Right | 0.25 | 0.662 | 0.298 | 0.213 |
| Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs R | Batter Splits | MIL vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,800 DK
Milwaukee Brewers vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 5)
His first start came without much fanfare, but there were some early encouraging signs from Tyson Ross’ younger brother Joe. The Cubs did get to him as they went through the order for the second and third time, and the younger Ross doesn’t really profile as anything more than a mid-to-back of the rotation starter. He is not a recommended option against a Milwaukee offense that is getting healthy and heating up. Rating = 3
Salaries: $6,900 FD, $6,900 DK
Washington Nationals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 9)
There are extremes with Jimmy Nelson. When he takes the mound, you never know what you are going to get. A big key for him is the first inning. If he can get through it unscathed, he has a chance at a solid performance, but that has been a big “if” for him this season. I like the strikeout upside, but this is not a favorable matchup on paper. Give him a look as a potentially contrarian tournament option. Rating = 5.5
Batter Grind Down
Washington
Bryce Harper
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.509 — ISO: .444 — OBP: 0.461
Do I even need to say anything here? Look at those numbers. Look at those numbers!
Secondary Plays:
Clint Robinson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: .113 — OBP: 0.293
Milwaukee
Jonathan Lucroy
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.245 — ISO: .075 — OBP: 0.259
Don’t let his overall data thus far in 2015 scare you away. Lucroy missed the better part of a month and a half with a toe injury, so he has few at-bats and is just now getting back in the groove. The Brewers have actually hit Lucroy in the leadoff spot over the last two games, which gives him the potential to see five at-bats in a game. With Milwaukee’s offense heating up, Lucroy is a decent target at a thin catcher position.
Secondary Plays:
Ryan Braun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: .267 — OBP: 0.348
Kansas City at Saint Louis – 4:10 PM EST
| Kansas City | Saint Louis | ||||||||
 | Jeremy Guthrie |  | Tyler Lyons | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| STL (0) | 0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.301 | 0.864 | 0.379 | 0.141 | SP vs. Left | 0.128 | 0.381 | 0.189 | 0.341 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.238 | 0.611 | 0.273 | 0.121 | SP vs. Right | 0.286 | 0.833 | 0.358 | 0.218 |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs L | Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $5,700 FD, $4,500 DK
“Saint Louis” vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 6)
Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 23)
Jeremy Guthrie simply cannot get left-handed batters out. That doesn’t bode well when Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Jason Heyward, and company come up to the plate. Guthrie doesn’t strike anyone out, either. If you are thinking about rostering Guthrie for DFS, just choose your favorite charity and donate the money directly to a good cause. Rating = 1.5
Salaries: $5,800 FD, $5,300 DK
Kansas City Royals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.328 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 13.9% (Rank: 30)
In various past writeups, I have likened Tyler Lyons to a “AAAA” pitcher; a guy who has great numbers in the minor leagues but can never translate that success to the big league level. Lyons has been everything the Cardinals could ask for at Memphis, tallying a 2.61 ERA to go with 10.43 K/9 with just 1.68 BB/9. However, he seems to nitpick more at the MLB level. His underlying metrics are decent through his 15 major league starts, and there are signs of improvement. The Royals, however, are not the team with which to give Lyons a test drive. They don’t strike out often and they hit lefties well. Look elsewhere today. Rating = 2.5
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
Lorenzo Cain
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.394 — ISO: .169 — OBP: 0.411
Cain is quietly one of the better hitters in the league against left-handed pitching. With a wOBA that is approaching .400 and an OBP over .400, he is one of the best under-the-radar targets for DFS games, especially against a pitcher that has struggled at the big league level. Fire up Cain with confidence in all formats today.
Secondary Plays:
Salvador Perez
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.324 — ISO: .183 — OBP: 0.283
Saint Louis
Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.412 — ISO: .223 — OBP: 0.417
As one of the peskiest hitters in the game that also possesses increasing power potential, Matt Carpenter is becoming my favorite Redbird of the bunch. Throw in a matchup with a pitcher who really struggles against left-handed bats and you have a great play. Carpenter is my favorite third base option of the day.
Secondary Plays:
Kolten Wong
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.364 — ISO: .184 — OBP: 0.359
Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.276 — ISO: .138 — OBP: 0.270
Atlanta at NY Mets – 4:10 PM EST
| Atlanta | NY Mets | ||||||||
 | Shelby Miller |  | Jacob Degrom | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| NYM (-149) | 6.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.23 | 0.673 | 0.297 | 0.158 | SP vs. Left | 0.235 | 0.637 | 0.286 | 0.241 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.21 | 0.638 | 0.286 | 0.18 | SP vs. Right | 0.209 | 0.557 | 0.247 | 0.272 |
| Batter Splits | ATL BvP | ATL vs R | Batter Splits | NYM BvP | NYM vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $8,900 FD, $8,500 DK
New York Mets vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.294 (Rank: 25)
Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 10)
Predictably, Shelby Miller has started to cool down after his blistering start to the 2015 campaign. He is settling in as a solid pitcher for the Braves, but it wasn’t realistic to expect him to keep up a sub-2.00 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP. He’s never been a dominant pitcher because his walks have always been a problem and he generally doesn’t strike out a ton of batters. He is in play for this slate as the Mets offense is in a major funk, but I don’t have a strong feeling one way or the other about the outcome here.Rating = 7
Salaries: $10,600 FD, $10,500 DK
Atlanta Braves vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.314 (Rank: 10)
Strikeout Rate: 16.9% (Rank: 27)
Jacob deGrom is turning into one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game, and he has put the home/road doubters to rest with dominant road performances in his last two starts. The strikeout upside is immense, though it is mitigated somewhat in a matchup against Atlanta. Still, deGrom has great home numbers throughout his career and should be a very safe option in this one. Rating = 8.5
Batter Grind Down
Atlanta
NO RECOMMENDED PLAYS
NY Mets
Lucas Duda
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: .273 — OBP: 0.419
Lucas Duda is emerging as a fine play at first base this year, and he has been very good so far in the month of June. Though he has improved against LHP this year, he still profiles as a better option against righties. The Mets bats aren’t the best plays today, but I do like Duda in this spot.
Secondary Plays:
Michael Cuddyer
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 — ISO: .161 — OBP: 0.311
Colorado at Miami – 4:10 PM EST
| Colorado | Miami | ||||||||
 | David Hale |  | Mat Latos | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIA (-150) | 8 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.778 | 0.34 | 0.096 | SP vs. Left | 0.275 | 0.707 | 0.312 | 0.163 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.246 | 0.682 | 0.298 | 0.137 | SP vs. Right | 0.235 | 0.693 | 0.306 | 0.194 |
| Batter Splits | COL BvP | COL vs R | Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $6,200 FD, $4,500 DK
Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.291 (Rank: 28)
Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 11)
If I was feeling super frisky about a pitching selection today and wanted to go really cheap, Hale might be the guy for me. He was surprisingly effective at Coors Field against the Cardinals his last time out, and now he draws a struggling Marlins offense that doesn’t hit right-handers well. Hale also gets a great park shift with this game being contested at the pitcher-friendly park in Miami. There’s blow-up risk here, but Hale could be a sneaky source of decent production today. Rating = 4
Colorado Rockies vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.337 (Rank: 2)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 18)
Although the Rockies’ offense is significantly less potent away from Coors Field, it is simply impossible to trust Latos in his first start back. He hasn’t done anything noteworthy so far in 2015, and a pitch limit is also possible for him today. Wait for some encouraging signs before putting Latos on your DFS squads. Rating = 3.5
Batter Grind Down
Colorado
Carlos Gonzalez
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: .194 — OBP: 0.339
While his best days are clearly behind him, Carlos Gonzalez actually has better numbers than the king Troy Tulowitzki against RHP this season. He may be on the verge of a hot streak, too, as he looks locked in at the plate right now. He cracked his seventh home run of the season yesterday and will be a good target against Mat Latos in this one.
Secondary Plays:
Troy Tulowitzki
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: .163 — OBP: 0.309
DJ Lemahieu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: .128 — OBP: 0.402
Miami
Giancarlo Stanton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: .287 — OBP: 0.330
Part of the reason why I kind of like David Hale today is that Stanton is the only Marlins bat that really strikes fear into an opponent. Stanton is much stronger against left-handed pitching, but the power potential is still there against righties, and he is always a playable option against a fringe pitcher.
Secondary Plays:
Martin Prado
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: .082 — OBP: 0.304
Seattle at Houston – 4:10 PM EST
| Seattle | Houston | ||||||||
 | Mike Montgomery |  | Collin McHugh | ||||||
| Left | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-136) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.62 | 0.276 | 0.212 | ||||
| SP vs. Right | SP vs. Right | 0.232 | 0.68 | 0.301 | 0.257 | ||||
| Batter Splits | SEA BvP | SEA vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Salaries: $6,200 FD, $4,300 DK
Houston Astros vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 24.1% (Rank: 2)
One of the newfound rules of DFS is that you really take a risk targeting pitchers against these Astros! You never know what you are going to get from their bats, and they torched King Felix for eight first inning runs on Friday night. They also have several hitters that are capable of hitting left-handed pitching very well. Montgomery gets an upgrade if Jose Altuve sits out, but this isn’t a play I can endorse given his fringe prospect status and less-than-stellar minor league track record. Rating = 3
Salaries: $8,300 FD, $7,800 DK
Seattle Mariners vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 27)
Strikeout Rate: 23.2% (Rank: 3)
McHugh has struggled at times so far this season, but better days are likely on the horizon. His stuff still looks good, and his SIERA is about a full run lower than his 4.34 ERA. The Mariners have struggled all year against RHP, and this could be the matchup to get McHugh on track. If he can get through the red-hot Kyle Seager, I like McHugh to be one of the best pitching values on the board today. Rating = 8
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
NO ELITE PLAYS
Secondary Plays:
Kyle Seager
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.328 — ISO: .178 — OBP: 0.328
Houston
Carlos Correa
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.658 — ISO: .636 — OBP: 0.455
The young phenom for the Astros is already showing his fantasy upside. The best news is that he provides it at the super-thin shortstop position. He profiles as a very good hitter against LHP, and he has already found a place in the middle of the order. Even at an increasing price tag, Correa is a fine option against Montgomery today.
Secondary Plays:
George Springer
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.395 — ISO: .221 — OBP: 0.402