MLB Grind Down: Saturday, June 20th

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2015-06-23 18:09:00

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Remember, these writeups are done prior to lineups being released, so make sure to check our Starting Lineups page to ensure the recommended options are playing.

Note: For more info on DFS MLB scoring systems on the two largest sites, check out our DraftKings review and FanDuel review.

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Baltimore at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST

Baltimore					Toronto
			Kevin Gausman					Mark Buehrle
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-114)					9.0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.722	0.321	17.9%	SP vs. Left	0.267	0.758	0.332	13.30%
SP vs. Right	0.248	0.646	0.287	20.9%	SP vs. Right	0.284	0.745	0.326	13.10%
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs L		Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman

Toronto Blue Jays vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 3)
Strikeout Rate: 20.0% (Rank: 17)

Gausman will be making the start today because the Orioles did not want to throw Chen, a lefty, into the fire against the Blue Jays. Well, it is not much of an upgrade as in eight appearances this year, Gausman has allowed six earned runs in only 12 innings pitched. He does have some solid stuff as his K rate is around a 20% career average, but the matchup is too difficult to trust him today against the Blue Jays who are ranked third in the league in team wOBA against righties. Rating = 4

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $6,100

Mark Buehrle

Baltimore Orioles vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.313 (Rank: 14)
Strikeout Rate: 20.2% (Rank: 12)

Analysis: Although Buehrle has not pitched terribly over his past three starts, he is never someone I want to target for daily fantasy purposes. He has a below-average xFIP for the season and a abysmal 11.2% K rate. He has a tough matchup against the Orioles today and can safely be avoided. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $7,600 FD, $6,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Manny Machado
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.350

Analysis: The Orioles have been on fire recently, so a stack against Buerhle today is clearly in play. Machado has been leading the charge recently as he has 17 hits in his last ten games, including five home runs. Ride the hot streak and the hot team this afternoon.

Secondary Plays:

Matt Wieters
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.126 — ISO: 0.000 — OBP: 0.143

Nolan Reimold
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.650 — ISO: 0.889 — OBP: 0.400

Adam Jones
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.447 — ISO: 0.279 — OBP: 0.417

Delmon Young
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 — ISO: 0.020 — OBP: 0.340

Toronto

Josh Donaldson
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.233— OBP: 0.350

Analysis: Donaldson continues to rake in 2015 and he should continue rolling today. Donaldson has crushed right-handed pitching for a .376 wOBA and ISO of .233 on the year. This game features a total of nine and the Blue Jays are small favorites, which means their main guys should produce some runs today.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Bautista
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.384 — ISO: 0.274 — OBP: 0.380

Russell Martin
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.229 — OBP: 0.335

Jose Reyes
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.338 — ISO: 0.115 — OBP: 0.344

Chicago Cubs at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					Minnesota
			Jon Lester					Trevor May
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (-107)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.271	0.739	0.325	25.5%	SP vs. Left	0.285	0.774	0.341	20.60%
SP vs. Right	0.237	0.653	0.289	23.6%	SP vs. Right	0.291	0.000	0.357	20.40%
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester

Minnesota Twins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 7)

Lester bounced back after two rough outings to pitched well against the Reds on Sunday. Lester has pitched well for the most part this year and that is backed up by his 3.28 xFIP on the season. Lester will get a decent matchup against the Twins who are an average offense this year (.307 team wOBA against lefties). He makes a good play in all formats this afternoon, but I would rather pay up for some of the other aces that are pitching in the early slate. Rating = 7

Salaries: $8,900 FD, $9,000 DK

Trevor May

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 18)
Strikeout Rate: 25.3% (Rank: 29)

May has surprised us a bit so far this year as he has put together a solid season so far with an xFIP of 3.74 as well as a K rate of just over 20%. He has cut his walk rate by more than half from last year’s, which should continue today as the Cubs are not the most patient team in the league and strikeout at a very high 25.3% clip. He may not get a ton of run support this afternoon, but he does make an interested SP2 at sites where he is cheap. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $6,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.400 — ISO: 0.277 — OBP: 0.389

Analysis: Rizzo is crushing righties this year for a wOBA of .400 and an ISO of .277. He is coming off a two home run game yesterday and although he is expensive, could be a nice contrarian option this afternoon.

Secondary Plays:

Kris Bryant
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.387 — ISO: 0.182 — OBP: 0.402

Miguel Montero
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.341 — ISO: 0.200 — OBP: 0.353

Kyle Schwarber
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.796 — ISO: 0.625 — OBP: 0.625

Minnesota

No Elite Plays

Secondary Plays:

Brian Dozier
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.291 — OBP: 0.356

Trevor Plouffe
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.350 — ISO: 0.184 — OBP: 0.352

Texas at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST

Texas					Chicago White Sox
			Nick Martinez					Carlos Rodon
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHW (-127)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.761	0.336	12.5%	SP vs. Left	0.236	0.630	0.286	29.00%
SP vs. Right	0.279	0.788	0.344	14.0%	SP vs. Right	0.292	0.781	0.347	18.00%
Batter Splits			TEX vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Martinez

Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.295 (Rank: 23)
Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 12)

Martinez has actually been serviceable for the Rangers so far in 2015. He has a sub 3.00 ERA, yet his 4.80 xFIP shows some regression is in store. He has a decent matchup against the White Sox who are in the bottom third of the league in team wOBA against righties. Yet, his 14.2% strikeout rate leaves his upside very limited and is not in play this afternoon. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $6,400 FD, $5,900

Carlos Rodon

Texas Rangers vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 15)
Strikeout Rate: 23.0% (Rank: 21)

Rodon was lit up in his last start to the surging Pirates. Prior to this start, Rodon had been solid for the most part and still carries an xFIP of 4.06 into this game. Rodon matches up well against the lefty-heavy Rangers right now as they injuries have really left their lineup without many solid right-handed bats. Rodon pitched well against this squad just two weeks ago striking out 10 in six innings. He makes a tournament play today for his upside. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6,800 FD, $5,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Elvis Andrus
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.129 — OBP: 0.366

Analysis: This Rangers team is really depleted from the right side of the plate, which puts elevates Andrus’ fantasy potential. Against a lefty, Andrus should be slotted in the two spot and comes very cheap across the industry. The Texas bats are not my favorite plays of the afternoon, but Andrus is in a decent spot.

Secondary Plays:

Prince Fielder
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.357 — ISO: 0.186 — OBP: 0.355

Robinson Chirinos
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.381 — ISO: 0.268 — OBP: 0.348

Chicago White Sox

Adam Eaton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.134 — OBP: 0.339

Analysis: The White Sox are another offense that is really going to be tough to pick this afternoon, especially with the heavy total in the Toronto/Baltimore game and the Coors matchup. With that said, I continue to wait for Eaton to produce like he was in 2014. When he is, he is a great cash game play and he has a great matchup against Martinez who allowed a wOBA of .366 to lefties in 2014.

Secondary Plays:

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.374 — ISO: 0.221 — OBP: 0.351

Melky Cabrera
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.299 — ISO: 0.046 — OBP: 0.313

LA Angels at Oakland – 4:05 PM EST

LA Angels					Oakland
			Jered Weaver					Jesse Hahn
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (-129)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.257	0.741	0.326	18.0%	SP vs. Left	0.260	0.693	0.307	17.30%
SP vs. Right	0.233	0.671	0.296	15.4%	SP vs. Right	0.186	0.535	0.250	20.40%
Batter Splits	LAA BvP		ANA vs R		Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jered Weaver

Oakland Athletics vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.323 (Rank: 5)
Strikeout Rate: 17.4% (Rank: 5)

Weaver has struggled mightily over his last four starts of the season. During this span he has allowed 19 earned runs, 34 hits and seven home runs against him. Even if he was pitching well, his upside is so limited by his strikeout rate of 11.9%, that he is tough to play in any format. He is an easy avoid today. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $7,400 FD, $7,200 DK

Jesse Hahn

Los Angeles Angels vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 21)
Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 14)

Hahn has been a serviceable starter so far this year for the Athletics. He comes into this game with a solid 3.86 xFIP on the season, which matches up well with his 3.62 ERA. Hahn is cheap across the industry, but a lot of that is due to his K rate being at 15% this year. His matchup is decent on paper, but that shows the early season struggles of the Angels. Over the last month, the Angels have a team wOBA of .324, ranking them sixth in the league. This makes Hahn a bit of a tough start on a slate that has some solid options. Rating = 5.5

Salaries: $7,800 FD, $6,200 DK

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Albert Pujols
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.398 — ISO: 0.286 — OBP: 0.355

Analysis: This spot is usually reserved for Trout, but it is tough to ignore what Pujols has done recently. Pujols has 11 hits in his last ten games, including four home runs and twelve runs batted in. He is locked in in that cleanup spot as he is slugging .554 on the year. He makes a contrarian play at the first base position today.

Secondary Plays:

Kole Calhoun
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.315 — ISO: 0.131 — OBP: 0.318

Mike Trout
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.413 — ISO: 0.302 — OBP: 0.383

Oakland

Ben Zobrist
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.207 — OBP: 0.320

Analysis: Weaver is allowing a wOBA of .330+ from both sides of the plate so the A’s do make a solid contrarian stack this afternoon. While the others are a bit expensive, Zobrist’s price is still affordable today and he has been hitting the ball very well with three doubles, one triple and two home runs in his last six games. He makes a great play at the second base position today.

Secondary Plays:

Josh Reddick
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.429 — ISO: 0.234 — OBP: 0.412

Stephen Vogt
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.270 — OBP: 0.284

Billy Burns
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.346 — ISO: 0.110 — OBP: 0.360

Pittsburgh at Washington – 4:05 PM EST

Pittsburgh					Washington
			Francisco Liriano					Max Scherzer
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			WAS (-129)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.249	0.675	0.304	0.287	SP vs. Left	0.235	0.655	0.292	0.255
SP vs. Right	0.19	0.589	0.268	0.265	SP vs. Right	0.207	0.578	0.257	0.332
Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R		Batter Splits	WAS BvP		WAS vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano

Washington Nationals vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 9)
Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 15)

Liriano is a great option for DFS purposes anytime he takes the mound. He has the sixth-highest K rate in the majors this year at 30.5% and has been pitching very well recently. Over his last five starts, Liriano has an xFIP of 1.49 to go along with a 12.09 K/9. With his upside, Liriano makes for a great cash game and tournament play against the Nationals. Rating = 8

Salaries: $9,900 FD, $10,400 DK

Max Scherzer

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20)
Strikeout Rate: 19.7% (Rank: 15)

With Fister joining the rotation this week, everyone’s start got pushed back a day, which has given us a tremendous pitching matchup today. Scherzer has had a great season so far as his xFIP of 2.76 backs up his great 1.93 ERA on the season. He has huge upside as his K rate is the fourth-highest in the majors (30.9%). Add this to the fact that he is coming off one of his best performances of the season (9 innings, 0 earned runs, 16 strikeouts) and you have a great play this afternoon and the safest play in all formats. Rating = 9

Salaries: $11,900 FD, $12,600 DK

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

This game should be a pitchers’ duel and no offensive plays should be used.

Secondary Plays:

None

Washington

This game should be a pitchers’ duel and no offensive plays should be used.

Secondary Plays:

None

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