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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, October 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:07:26

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

LA Dodgers at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Washington
ladodgersmlb Rich Hill washingtonmlb Tanner Roark
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD -120 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.232 0 23.9% 18.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.281 6 29.2% 18.8%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.244 4 29.8% 32.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.283 11 20.0% 21.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
rich-hill-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,500
FPPG: 39.2 FPPG: 21.6
Pitcher Rating: 79.8 Pitcher Rank: 1
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.0 2.59 2.22 34.3% 4.8% 10.9% 31.1% 41.0% 34.4%
2016 20 91.0 3.29 2.12 29.4% 7.5% 10.6% 45.3% 35.8% 28.3%
2015 4 88.5 2.29 1.55 34.0% 4.7% 11.3% 48.4% 35.5% 22.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.04 — K%: 27.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.242
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 1.98 — K%: 32.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.223

At the beginning of the season, it was hard to imagine that the Dodgers would have a southpaw with nearly as good of numbers as Clayton Kershaw. In 20 starts, Hill had a 2.12 ERA with a strikeout rate of 29.4%. The only knock on him is that he typically doesn’t pitch deep into games (91 pitches per start this season, 86 in his last five). He has been as effective on the road as he has been at home and he is listed as a small favorite today against the Nationals. The Dodgers are looking to head back to Los Angeles up 2-0 in the series.

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,700
FPPG: 33.5 FPPG: 17.4
Pitcher Rating: 58.8 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 94.8 4.59 2.60 23.2% 12.7% 10.0% 46.1% 32.6% 22.2%
2016 33 101.7 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 8.9% 48.7% 31.2% 24.3%
2015 12 150.0 4.16 4.38 15.0% 5.6% 7.1% 47.8% 30.6% 26.3%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.25 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.47 — K%: 16.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.304

Roark had a career year, posting a 2.83 ERA with a strikeout rate of 20.1%. He has been a regression candidate all season though, as his peripheral statistics aren’t nearly as good. While he does get to pitch at home, he draws a difficult matchup against the Dodgers, who were ranked sixth in team wOBA and seventh in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Roark comes in as the lowest ranked pitcher in this two-game slate.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers come into today’s game with the second-highest implied team total in the slate. While Tanner Roark has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA, he had a 4.85 xFIP against left-handed hitters. All of the lefties in this lineup are in play, as is Justin Turner, who loves playing in Nationals Park.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.334 0.152 38.8% 0.325 2B $2,900 2B $3,500
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.400 0.223 39.6% 0.277 SS $3,700 SS $4,500
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.385 0.258 37.2% 0.370 3B $3,600 3B $4,400
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.362 0.185 36.9% 0.335 1B $2,900 1B $3,800
5 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.371 0.163 32.8% 0.388 OF $2,800 OF $3,900
6 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.386 0.278 41.3% 0.446 OF $3,100 OF $3,900
7 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.351 0.268 39.7% 0.435 C $2,900 C $3,700
8 Andrew Toles LEFT 0.375 0.185 32.4% 0.227 OF $2,100 OF $2,400
9 Rich Hill LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $9,000 P $9,500
Team Averages — 0.329 0.190 33.2% 0.311 — — — —

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Chase Utley, Justin Turner, Josh Reddick, Joc Pederson, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington

The Nationals need to find a way to win this game or they will fall in an 0-2 hole against the Dodgers. Unfortunately, they draw the most difficult matchup in the slate. In the regular season, Rich Hill held both left and right-handed hitters under a .245 wOBA. Give a slight edge to the right-handed hitters in this lineup, but this is a situation that we may want to fade completely.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.325 0.095 42.0% 0.341 OF $3,800 2B/OF $4,700
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.322 0.212 31.4% 0.281 OF $3,500 OF $3,800
3 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.432 0.298 46.3% 0.298 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.383 0.219 31.2% 0.000 2B $3,700 2B $4,200
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.355 0.143 34.9% 0.263 3B $3,100 3B $3,900
6 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.292 0.200 39.7% 0.329 1B $2,900 1B $3,400
7 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.297 0.261 40.7% 0.260 SS $2,800 SS $3,100
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.485 0.600 25.0% 0.422 C $2,800
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.129 0.071 16.7% 0.138 P $8,000 P $8,700
Team Averages — 0.336 0.233 34.2% 0.259 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Jayson Werth

Stackability – ORANGE

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 8:05 PM ET

San Francisco Chicago Cubs
sanfranciscomlb Jeff Samardzija cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -180 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.331 12 29.2% 19.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.269 6 23.7% 22.3%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.276 12 33.8% 21.3% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.243 9 27.4% 23.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeff Samardzija
jeff-samardzija-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $8,500
FPPG: 29.3 FPPG: 15.4
Pitcher Rating: 63.5 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 99.8 2.88 2.48 30.7% 5.5% 11.0% 46.8% 29.9% 29.6%
2016 32 99.7 4.13 3.81 20.1% 6.5% 9.2% 46.5% 33.6% 31.5%
2015 32 104.3 4.18 4.96 17.9% 5.4% 9.8% 39.0% 39.8% 27.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.50 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.31 — K%: 17.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.301

Samardzija finished the regular season strong, posting a 2.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.7% in his last five starts. His numbers on the season weren’t great overall though, and he is by far the biggest underdog in this two-game slate. He draws a difficult matchup against the Cubs, who were ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching in the regular season. The Giants always seem to have some tricks up their sleeve, but they need to pull off an upset to avoid falling behind two games in this series.

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $9,200
FPPG: 35.6 FPPG: 19.8
Pitcher Rating: 77.2 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 94.2 3.23 2.32 25.8% 4.2% 10.8% 47.0% 32.5% 32.5%
2016 30 96.3 3.70 2.13 22.8% 5.9% 10.0% 48.4% 31.3% 25.8%
2015 32 87.3 3.37 3.95 22.6% 5.8% 8.1% 51.3% 26.9% 25.8%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.29 — K%: 24.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.251
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.71 — K%: 20.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297

Hendricks may be the biggest favorite in the slate, but Joe Maddon has shown in the past that he will pull his starter at any point in the postseason. If there is any sign of a struggle, he will turn to his bullpen. That doesn’t mean that Hendricks is going to get into trouble, but it’s something to keep in mind. He is having a great season overall, posting a 3.70 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.8%. The Giants’ offense has struggled against right-handed pitching, but the strikeout upside isn’t there for Hendricks. I have him ranked slightly behind Rich Hill.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants have the lowest implied team total in the slate, but I like their offense a bit better than the Nationals. Kyle Hendricks has been terrific this season, but he has allowed a .269 wOBA to left-handed hitters. We know that the Giants are going to work the count and make it tough on Hendricks. I wouldn’t rule out their offense here, as this is the postseason and we are in an even year.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.338 0.139 26.8% 0.406 OF $2,800 OF $4,100
2 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.370 0.193 38.2% 0.445 1B $2,900 1B $3,700
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.324 0.134 35.7% 0.296 C $2,800 C $3,500
4 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.348 0.129 27.6% 0.299 OF $2,700 OF $3,200
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.334 0.180 34.0% 0.445 SS $2,600 SS $4,000
6 Angel Pagan SWITCH 0.334 0.132 24.8% 0.338 OF $2,800 OF $4,000
7 Joe Panik LEFT 0.313 0.166 26.5% 0.265 2B $2,800 2B $3,500
8 Conor Gillaspie LEFT 0.322 0.183 33.8% 0.512 3B $2,500 3B $3,000
9 Jeff Samardzija RIGHT 0.184 0.093 26.9% 0.000 P $8,700 P $8,500
Team Averages — 0.319 0.150 30.5% 0.334 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brandon Belt, Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the highest run projection in the slate, as they take on Jeff Samardzija at home. Fenway Park is going to be rocking once again, and given the other matchups, this is the most exploitable one on the slate. During the regular season, Samardzija allowed a .331 wOBA to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.363 0.165 28.8% 0.455 OF $3,600 OF $4,200
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.382 0.239 40.2% 0.331 3B $3,900 3B/OF $4,900
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.404 0.273 38.6% 0.346 1B $4,000 1B $4,000
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.357 0.182 32.9% 0.495 2B $3,100 2B $4,300
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.306 0.155 28.5% 0.253 SS $2,500 SS $2,900
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.287 0.100 27.1% 0.336 OF $2,800 OF $3,300
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.362 0.213 33.9% 0.598 C $2,900 C/OF $3,800
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.297 0.144 28.4% 0.366 SS $2,900 2B/3B $4,100
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.156 0.000 7.4% 0.146 P $9,500 P $9,200
Team Averages — 0.324 0.163 29.5% 0.370 — — — —

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward, Javier Baez

Stackability – GREEN

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious