MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 5th - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2015-07-05 15:55:52

Cleveland at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM EST

Cleveland					Pittsburgh
			Danny Salazar					Gerrit Cole
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PIT (-125)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.238	0.708	0.31	0.293	SP vs. Left	0.24	0.669	0.3	0.246
SP vs. Right	0.262	0.743	0.324	0.248	SP vs. Right	0.242	0.659	0.293	0.252
Batter Splits	CLE BvP		CLE vs R		Batter Splits	PIT BvP		PIT vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Salazar

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 18)

Strikeout Rate: 19.9% (Rank: 13)

This could be the matchup of the day that has the most potential. On one side, you have the upside of Danny Salazar. He owns a sparkling 3.03 xFIP with 10.65 K/9 on the year. All of his stats are better than a year ago, and he carries perhaps the most upside on the board today. The projected overall score is a bit lower given the recent hot streak from Pittsburgh’s bats and the fact that a pretty good pitcher is going for the home team here, too. Rating = 8

Salaries: $8,900 FD, $9,000 DK

Gerrit Cole

Cleveland Indians vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 17)

Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 22)

Though we have the upside of Salazar on the other side, we have the consistency of Gerrit Cole on this side. In sixteen starts this year, Cole has given up more than two runs just three times, and he has given up more than three runs just once. That is absolutely incredible consistency, and he should be able to keep it rolling against the Indians today. Cleveland’s offense has been scuffling of late, they were shut out by Jeff Locke yesterday, and they lose their designated hitter in this game. Gerrit Cole edges out Cole Hamels as the top pitching option on my board. Rating = 9.5

Salaries: $10,600 FD, $10,000 DK

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Cleveland’s offense has been cold, and today they get to face the most consistent pitcher in the league. They’re also on the road. Move along.

Elite Plays

No recommended plays.

Pittsburgh

The Pirates’ offense has made people a lot of money over the past week or two, but this isn’t the matchup with which to chase that production. Danny Salazar only gets in trouble when his command fails him, and that is not happening very often this season. This is not a game where you want to be targeting the bats.

Elite Plays

No recommended plays.

Baltimore at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM EST

Baltimore					Chicago White Sox
			Miguel Gonzalez					Carlos Rodon
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHW (-104)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.254	0.758	0.333	0.162	SP vs. Left	0.206	0.55	0.25	0.307
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.73	0.322	0.185	SP vs. Right	0.307	0.855	0.374	0.183
Batter Splits			BAL vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Miguel Gonzalez

Chicago White Sox vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.297 (Rank: 23)

Strikeout Rate: 19.3% (Rank: 19)

Miguel Gonzalez is filling in for Bud Norris today, which is an upgrade for the Orioles’ pitching staff. However, he has struggled a bit of late and isn’t a fantasy option even against the poor White Sox offense. Rating = 3.5

Salaries: $7,300 FD, $6,000 DK

Carlos Rodon

Baltimore Orioles vs. LH Pitching: (2015)
wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10)

Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 17)

After being shut out in back-to-back games, the Orioles struggled against Jeff Samardzija on Saturday, too. This makes Carlos Rodon an interesting potential option today, but Baltimore tends to hit well against left-handers in general. I won’t take any chances, but I wouldn’t argue if you go after their recent slump with Rodon’s strikeout upside. His 3.89 xFIP is solid, but the 5.04 walks per nine innings need improvement in order for Rodon to find more consistency. Rating = 4.5

Salaries: $6,700 FD, $5,400 DK

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Baltimore has plenty of pop against left-handed pitching, and they could be a lucrative GPP stack today assuming Rodon doesn’t bring his best stuff. They will likely be low-owned given their recent cold spell, and this is a potential breakout spot.

Elite Plays

Adam Jones
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: .231 — OBP: 0.397

Secondary Plays

Manny Machado
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: .188 — OBP: 0.373

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox offense has been right there with the Phillies this year, struggling to hit for any power and put up big numbers. It’s painstaking to target their bats, but if they were ever going to explode, it would seem likely to come against a pitcher like Miguel Gonzalez.

Elite Plays

Jose Abreu
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.360 — ISO: .210 — OBP: 0.337

Secondary Plays

Adam Eaton
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.334 — ISO: .149 — OBP: 0.343

Minnesota at Kansas City – 2:10 PM EST

Minnesota					Kansas City
			Ervin Santana					Danny Duffy
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-137)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.283	0.763	0.332	0.19	SP vs. Left	0.184	0.474	0.219	0.174
SP vs. Right	0.226	0.677	0.302	0.253	SP vs. Right	0.244	0.719	0.318	0.187
Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana

Kansas City Royals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 13)

Strikeout Rate: 16.1% (Rank: 30)

Ervin Santana will be returning from a lengthy suspension to start this game against the Royals. He will likely have some rust to shake off in this one, and he faces a Royals team that hardly ever strikes out. No thanks. Rating = 1.5

Salaries: $7,300 FD, $7,100 DK

Danny Duffy

Minnesota Twins vs. LH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 15)

Strikeout Rate: 19.8% (Rank: 21)

Minnesota’s lineup is set up to do damage against left-handed pitching more than right-handed pitching, as they have plenty of power bats that excel against LHP. This game is in a pitcher-friendly park, but that’s about where Danny Duffy appeal ends. He is the definition of a league average pitcher, and I want no part of that when it is a LHP against this lineup. Rating = 3

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $5,800 DK

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Duffy doesn’t overpower opponents and should be a prime target for the right-handed heavy Minnesota bats. There’s some upside potential in a Minnesota stack today.

Elite Plays

Brian Dozier
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.378 — ISO: .261 — OBP: 0.350

Secondary Plays

Trevor Plouffe
2015 vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.336 — ISO: .172 — OBP: 0.340

Torii Hunter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: .163 — OBP: 0.298

Kansas City

Given the lack of home runs that the Royals hit, it’s hard to trust their offense on a game-to-game basis. We also don’t really know what to expect from Ervin Santana out of the blocks. This makes pegging this side of this game tricky, and I’ll likely play it safe and avoid Santana along with the Kansas City bats.

Elite Plays

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays

San Diego at St. Louis – 2:15 PM EST

San Diego					St. Louis
			Ian Kennedy					Lance Lynn
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-164)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.239	0.733	0.319	0.243	SP vs. Left	0.231	0.676	0.303	0.18
SP vs. Right	0.259	0.751	0.33	0.234	SP vs. Right	0.242	0.65	0.29	0.252
Batter Splits	SDP BvP		SD vs R		Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy

St. Louis Cardinals vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 8)

Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 21)

The St. Louis offense is much less dangerous right now, as they have fallen on hard times with the loss of Matt Adams, the inevitable decline of Mark Reynolds, and slumps from Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong. I don’t hate targeting pitchers against them right now, but it’s very difficult to trust Ian Kennedy. He has been hittable all year, and this probably isn’t the spot to take a chance with Lance Lynn taking the hill for the home team. Rating = 5

Salaries: $7,400 FD, $7,700 DK

Lance Lynn

San Diego Padres vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.292 (Rank: 27)

Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 5)

On a slate that is devoid of many good mid-range options, Lance Lynn could be the guy to look toward. His 2.74 ERA is equal to his 2014 figure, and he has always been a guy who pitches much better at Busch Stadium. His 9.39 K/9 is a career high, and this is a friendly matchup against a San Diego team that is woeful offensively at times. Rating = 8.5

Salaries: $9,000 FD, $10,100 DK

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Combine Lance Lynn dominance at home with San Diego’s awful numbers against right-handed hurlers and you have an easy offense to avoid today.

Elite Plays

No recommended plays.

St. Louis

The Cardinals are ice-cold at the dish right now, having scored three runs or less in five consecutive games. None of their hitters are standing out as great plays with the current slump. If I am taking anyone from the Redbirds today, it will be someone with power upside against the HR-prone Kennedy.

Elite Plays

Matt Carpenter
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.399 — ISO: .190 — OBP: 0.424

Secondary Plays

Jason Heyward
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 — ISO: .177 — OBP: 0.300

Miami at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM EST

Miami					Chicago Cubs
			Mat Latos					Kyle Hendricks
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC (0)					0
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.263	0.697	0.306	0.174	SP vs. Left	0.246	0.666	0.293	0.15
SP vs. Right	0.235	0.699	0.308	0.199	SP vs. Right	0.249	0.661	0.292	0.193
Batter Splits	MIA BvP		MIA vs R		Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Mat Latos

Chicago Cubs vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 21)

Strikeout Rate: 24.6% (Rank: 2)

It’s always interesting to consider pitchers against the Cubs because of the frequency with which they strike out. They also rank surprisingly low in wOBA against right-handed pitching. Depending on the construction of the Cubs’ lineup today, I can see using Latos as a second hurler on multi-pitcher sites. The problem is that he struggles with left-handed bats, which would be a concern if Fowler, Rizzo, and Montero are all at the top of the order today. Rating = 5

Salaries: $6,300 FD, $7,000 DK

Kyle Hendricks

Miami Marlins vs. RH Pitching: (2015)

wOBA: 0.293 (Rank: 25)

Strikeout Rate: 20.5% (Rank: 9)

Kyle Hendricks is settling into a role as a perfect middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Cubs behind Lester, Arrieta, and Hammel. He pitches to contact, walking less than two batters per nine innings, and this allows him to eat up innings despite not being a dominant force. His 3.56 xFIP is a half a run better than his ERA, and he is showing some signs of improvement. He is a safe pick if you want to go cheaper with a pitcher today, as the Marlins offense is much less dangerous without Giancarlo Stanton feasting in the middle of the order. Rating = 6

Salaries: $6,900 FD, $6,500 DK

Batter Grind Down

Miami

With Giancarlo Stanton out, there isn’t a lot to love about the Marlins lineup. Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna are having a tough year, and this doesn’t project to improve much against a decent pitcher in Hendricks.

Elite Plays

No elite plays.

Secondary Plays

Dee Gordon
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: .083 — OBP: 0.354

Chicago Cubs

Left-handed hitters are tagging Latos for a .355 wOBA so far in 2015, so that is where you want to load up if you are targeting Cubs bats today. I am also operating under the assumption that Montero will get the day off with this being an early start after a late game on Saturday. However, he is a secondary option as a cheap play if he is in the lineup.

Elite Plays

Anthony Rizzo
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.406 — ISO: .284 — OBP: 0.391

Secondary Plays

Dexter Fowler
2015 vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.289 — ISO: .157 — OBP: 0.286

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