MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 20 - Page Two
Miami at Washington – 1:35 PM EST
| Miami | Washington | ||||||||
 | Justin Nicolino |  | Stephen Strasburg | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| WAS (-259) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.286 | 0.748 | 0.328 | 0.151 | SP vs. Left | 0.227 | 0.646 | 0.285 | 0.255 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.272 | 0.82 | 0.347 | 0.059 | SP vs. Right | 0.253 | 0.7 | 0.306 | 0.301 |
| Batter Splits | MIA BvP | MIA vs R | Batter Splits | WAS BvP | WAS vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Justin Nicolino – Nicolino’s strikeout rate is so absurdly low, you cannot even consider using him as there is zero upside and a lot of downside. I really can’t give you any more analysis than that; the guy has 18 strikeouts in 54 innings. If I got 19 more strikeouts, I would be ahead of him. Pitcher Rating – 2
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 54 – SIERA: 5.48 – ERA: 3.81 – K%: 8.0% – BB%: 6.7% – HR/9: 0.99
Salaries: $6,000 FD, $5,200 DK
Stephen Strasburg – We’ve said it before and been punished for it, but I’m going to say it again; Strasburg is back! He has burnt us enough times that some caution needs to be exercised, but a 27:2 K:BB ratio in his last two starts and a 35.9% strikeout rate and 2.00 SIERA over the past month are very convincing numbers. Factor in a home start against the lowly Marlins, and this looks like the top pitcher of the day. Pitcher Rating – 9.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 106 – SIERA: 2.94 – ERA: 3.98 – K%: 28.2% – BB%: 5.2% – HR/9: 1.10
Salaries: $10,700 FD, $10,400 DK
Batter Grind Down
Miami
With the way Strasburg has been pitching, there is no reason to play any Marlins batters.
Secondary Plays:
Washington
Against right-handed batters, Justin Nicolino has just 10 strikeouts along with 12 walks in 42 innings. With the help of a low BABIP and HR/FB, his wOBA allowed to righties is only .347, but that is likely to skyrocket if he continues with this weak pitching. Load up the Nationals bats in all formats.
Elite Plays:
Anthony Rendon – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .377 – ISO: .070 – wRC+: 117
Ian Desmond – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .336 – OBP: .323 – ISO: .195 – wRC+: 112
Jayson Werth – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .329 – OBP: .263 – ISO: .296 – wRC+: 107
Yunel Escobar – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .319 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .077 – wRC+: 100
Bryce Harper – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .424 – OBP: .433 – ISO: .243 – wRC+: 172
Secondary Plays:
Wilson Ramos – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .261 – OBP: .267 – ISO: .100 – wRC+: 60
Michael Taylor – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .293 – OBP: .298 – ISO: .147 – wRC+: 82
Oakland at Houston – 2:10 PM EST
| Oakland | Houston | ||||||||
 | Aaron Brooks |  | Collin McHugh | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| HOU (-220) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.341 | 0.933 | 0.398 | 0.217 | SP vs. Left | 0.223 | 0.624 | 0.278 | 0.211 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.374 | 1.054 | 0.45 | 0.119 | SP vs. Right | 0.254 | 0.703 | 0.309 | 0.233 |
| Batter Splits | OAK BvP | OAK vs R | Batter Splits | HOU BvP | HOU vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Aaron Brooks – Brooks has been bit by a high BABIP and HR/FB leading to a 7.68 ERA despite a decent 4.16 SIERA and a low walk rate. I expect him to turn into a respectable pitcher, but with a young pitcher who has been hit hard, there is no reason to play him until he shows some positive results at the major league level. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 38 – SIERA: 4.16 – ERA: 7.68 – K%: 17.5% – BB%: 5.1% – HR/9: 1.40
Salaries: $5,900 FD, $4,300 DK
Collin McHugh – McHugh has back-to-back rough starts, allowing five runs in four innings to Texas and five runs to this same Oakland team two weeks ago. Prior to that, he had been on a roll with six straight quality starts and 40 strikeouts in 41 innings. His peripherals for the year are right around league average with a decent strikeout to walk rate and a 3.98 SIERA. He has been better at home, and I expect him to return to his quality start type results, making him a consideration as an SP2. Pitcher Rating – 6
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 182 – SIERA: 3.98 – ERA: 4.05 – K%: 19.5% – BB%: 6.3% – HR/9: 0.89
Salaries: $8,900 FD, $8,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
McHugh has similar numbers against both right and left-handed batters, and I generally like him as a pitcher, so I am not looking at many Oakland bats today. Josh Reddick is always an option against right-handed pitching, and Danny Valencia is a GPP option as he has been hitting well recently.
Elite Plays
Josh Reddick – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .361 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .194 – wRC+: 133
Secondary Plays:
Danny Valencia – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .375 – OBP: .316 – ISO: .289 – wRC+: 141
Houston
Aaron Brooks has an elevated BABIP and HR/FB against both right and left-handed batters. Combined with small sample sizes, it’s difficult to know exactly what to look for here. Again, keeping in mind that we are looking at a small number of innings, he has a much higher strikeout rate against lefties than righties. For today, the Houston bats should be considered GPP options and a stackable team, as Brooks has allowed 17 runs in his last 13 innings, so he clearly can be hit hard. But, like I said in his write-up, I really don’t think he’s that bad of a pitcher, and things should even out at some point, so I’m not looking to load up on Astros bats in cash games.
Elite Plays
Carlos Correa – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .349 – OBP: .337 – ISO: .197 – wRC+: 122
George Springer – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .142 – wRC+: 105
Secondary Plays:
Jose Altuve – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .312 – OBP: .318 – ISO: .114 – wRC+: 96
Colby Rasmus – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .283 – ISO: .230 – wRC+: 99
Evan Gattis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .285 – ISO: .226 – wRC+: 104
Jed Lowrie – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .287 – OBP: .291 – ISO: .169 – wRC+: 79
LA Angels at Minnesota – 2:10 PM EST
| LA Angels | Minnesota | ||||||||
 | Matt Shoemaker |  | Tyler Duffey | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| MIN (-120) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.246 | 0.706 | 0.309 | 0.199 | SP vs. Left | 0.295 | 0.775 | 0.343 | 0.264 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.697 | 0.302 | 0.241 | SP vs. Right | 0.222 | 0.703 | 0.307 | 0.175 |
| Batter Splits | ANA vs R | Batter Splits | MIN BvP | MIN vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Matt Shoemaker – Shoemaker missed a start with a forearm injury, which calls for a cautious approach. He had been in good form in his previous two starts with one run allowed in 14 innings. He had a string of three great starts in late July-early August, but the two stretches of positive results were sandwiched around a couple of disaster starts where he allowed 13 runs in 7 innings. If he was not dealing with the injury, he would be on my list today, but with the question mark surrounding him, he is nothing more than a longshot GPP play. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 131 – SIERA: 3.89 – ERA: 4.31 – K%: 20.9% – BB%: 6.0% – HR/9: 1.50
Salaries: $8,000 FD, $7,000 DK
Tyler Duffey – Duffey was hit hard in his first major league start, but since then has reeled off a decent six-game stretch, including four starts with seven or more strikeouts. All four of those starts were very useful DFS performances and he is still at a low price point across most of the industry. I don’t see myself using him today, and certainly not in cash games, but I wouldn’t call you crazy if you wanted to take a shot on him in a GPP. Pitcher Rating – 5.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 38 – SIERA: 4.11 – ERA: 3.72 – K%: 22.2% – BB%: 10.2% – HR/9: 0.70
Salaries: $6,000 FD, $7,800 DK
Batter Grind Down
LA Angels
In his limited sample size, Tyler Duffey has a high 26.4% strikeout rate against left-handed batters with a 55% ground ball rate, while the K rate drops to 17.5% against righties with a 41% ground ball rate. We really don’t have a good grasp on what to expect out of Duffey, I am not actively targeting Angels batters, but their top hitters do not need to be completely avoided either.
Elite Plays
Mike Trout – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .407 – OBP: .389 – ISO: .293 – wRC+: 167
Secondary Plays:
Albert Pujols – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .312 – ISO: .238 – wRC+: 121
Kole Calhoun – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .327 – OBP: .317 – ISO: .171 – wRC+: 112
Minnesota
Shoemaker is solid against both right and left-handed batters. You can consider some Twins bats in tournaments, in case Shoemaker’s injury affects his performance, but for the most part, I am staying away from all sides of this game.
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Sano – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .423 – OBP: .406 – ISO: .323 – wRC+: 173
Brian Dozier – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .308 – ISO: .216 – wRC+: 107
Eddie Rosario – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .309 – OBP: .287 – ISO: .179 – wRC+: 94
Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM EST
| Cincinnati | Milwaukee | ||||||||
 | Anthony Desclafani |  | Ariel Pena | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CIN (-110) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.26 | 0.775 | 0.336 | 0.197 | SP vs. Left | 0.158 | 0.728 | 0.329 | 0.12 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.268 | 0.692 | 0.3 | 0.183 | SP vs. Right | 0.214 | 0.611 | 0.261 | 0.258 |
| Batter Splits | CIN BvP | CIN vs R | Batter Splits | MIL BvP | MIL vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Anthony Desclafani – Desclafani has been picking up steam as the season wears on. Over his last four starts, he has a 29:4 K:BB ratio in 26 innings with a 2.79 SIERA. He could be a sneaky tournament option as he doesn’t have a marquee name that will lead to high ownership. He’s certainly not an ace all of a sudden, but he is definitely on my radar with the way he’s been pitching. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 169 – SIERA: 4.15 – ERA: 3.67 – K%: 19.3% – BB%: 7.5% – HR/9: 0.80
Salaries: $7,000 FD, $7,900 DK
Ariel Pena – Pena has a respectable 3.46 ERA in his first three major league appearances, but his 5.03 SIERA and terrible walk rate paint a different picture. He struggled with his control in the minors as well, and I am unwilling to consider him a viable option until shows some ability to control the strike zone. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 13 – SIERA: 5.03 – ERA: 3.46 – K%: 19.6% – BB%: 14.3% – HR/9: 0.00
Salaries: $5,000 FD, $4,100 DK
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
We don’t have enough sample size to make any definitive statements about Ariel Pena, but I am definitely willing to consider stacking the Reds in tournaments, as anyone with this bad of control can see things spiral out of hand in a hurry. Outside of Joey Votto and possibly Jay Bruce, I don’t see any of their batters as cash game options.
Elite Plays
Joey Votto – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .434 – OBP: .465 – ISO: .247 – wRC+: 176
Jay Bruce – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .316 – OBP: .302 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 96
Secondary Plays:
Todd Frazier – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .337 – OBP: .316 – ISO: .215 – wRC+: 110
Brandon Phillips – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .330 – ISO: .118 – wRC+: 102
Milwaukee
With his recent success, I’m not excited about playing hitters against Desclafani, though on the year, he has had some trouble with left-handed batters, so if you want to take a shot on Adam Lind as a contrarian play, he is always an option against right-handed pitching.
Secondary Plays:
Adam Lind – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .390 – ISO: .218 – wRC+: 141
St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM EST
| St. Louis | Chicago Cubs | ||||||||
 | Carlos Martinez |  | Jon Lester | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CHC (0) | 0 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.266 | 0.788 | 0.34 | 0.183 | SP vs. Left | 0.256 | 0.695 | 0.306 | 0.261 |
| SP vs. Right | 0.24 | 0.626 | 0.278 | 0.282 | SP vs. Right | 0.231 | 0.637 | 0.282 | 0.243 |
| Batter Splits | STL BvP | STL vs L | Batter Splits | CHC BvP | CHC vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Carlos Martinez – Martinez had his best start of the second half in his last outing with nine strikeouts and one run allowed in eight innings against the Brewers. I’m still a little worried that he is wearing down, as he has nearly doubled his career high in innings pitched, but a 26.4% strikeout rate over the past month certainly doesn’t look like a cause for concern. The Cubs give him strikeout potential, but also downside from their power potential. Added all together, Martinez is a tournament only option for me. Pitcher Rating – 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 172 – SIERA: 3.41 – ERA: 3.02 – K%: 24.6% – BB%: 8.3% – HR/9: 0.68
Salaries: $9,500 FD, $9,300 DK
Jon Lester – Lester is coming off one of his best starts of the season, a complete game against Pittsburgh allowing just one run. He has been in good form since the All-Star Break, allowing two or fewer runs in nine of his last eleven starts. The Cardinals have the second-highest strikeout rate in the league against left-handed pitching and are 28th in runs scored over the past two weeks. Lester is a solid play in all formats. Pitcher Rating – 8.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 184 – SIERA: 3.24 – ERA: 3.38 – K%: 24.6% – BB%: 5.9% – HR/9: 0.68
Salaries: $10,700 FD, $10,300 DK
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
There are a lot of good offensive situations around the league today, and I don’t see a reason to play against Lester.
Secondary Plays:
Chicago Cubs
Carlos Martinez is a good pitcher and not someone you generally want to attack, but he is less dominant against left-handed hitters, allowing a .330 wOBA. The Cubs lefties could be a decent longshot tournament option.
Secondary Plays:
Kyle Schwarber – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .430 – OBP: .396 – ISO: .338 – wRC+:175
Anthony Rizzo – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .387 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .269 – wRC+: 146
Chris Coghlan – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .362 – OBP: .358 – ISO: .218 – wRC+: 129