MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 20th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down article will give you an in-depth analysis into the MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
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Boston at Toronto – 1:07 PM EST
| Boston | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Rich Hill |  | Mark Buehrle | ||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR (-175) | 9.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.222 | 0.613 | 0.306 | 30.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.272 | 0.751 | 0.327 | 12.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.154 | 0.444 | 0.212 | 38.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.278 | 0.739 | 0.320 | 12.70% |
| Batter Splits | BOS BvP | BOS vs L | Batter Splits | TOR BvP | TOR vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Rich Hill – In one of the biggest surprises of the year, Hill made his first major league start since 2009 and proceeded to strike out 10 batters in seven scoreless innings. While that is wonderful and I’m very happy for him and his friends and family, I am not in the business of recommending left-handed pitchers at Toronto. Pitcher Rating – 4
Salaries: $4,600 FD, $4,000 DK
Mark Buehrle – Buehrle just keeps doing his thing, beating his SIERA by a full run with a low strikeout rate. If I owned a major league team, I guess he could be on my roster, but for our purposes in DFS, he has absolutely zero upside with that low strikeout rate. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 179 – SIERA: 4.61 – ERA: 3.66 – K%: 11.1% – BB%: 3.8% – HR/9: 0.95
Salaries: $7,800 FD, $6,000 DK
Batter Grind Down
Boston
Playing batters against Mark Buehrle is a beating your head against the wall type of experience as it just looks like he should get shelled with every pitch he throws, but more often than not you end up disappointed. He is basically the same pitcher against both right and left-handed batters. I am not going to load up on Red Sox, but certainly they are a good enough offense, playing a great hitter’s park, that they can be considered in moderation.
Secondary Plays:
Xander Bogaerts – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .397 – OBP: .426 – ISO: .105 – wRC+:151
Rusney Castillo – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .381 – OBP: .426 – ISO: .153 – wRC+:140
Dustin Pedroia – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .372 – OBP: .372 – ISO: .225 – wRC+:134
Toronto
We really don’t know what to expect from Rich Hill after one great start. I will exercise a little caution in cash games with the high prices of the top Toronto batters, but this is such an elite lineup against left-handed pitching, they are of course very much in play.
Elite Plays
Josh Donaldson – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .464 – OBP: .415 – ISO: .371 – wRC+:200
Edwin Encarnacion – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .354 – OBP: .365 – ISO: .184 – wRC+:124
Jose Bautista – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .352 – OBP: .368 – ISO: .211 – wRC+:123
Justin Smoak – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .445 – OBP: .344 – ISO: .387 – wRC+:187
Russell Martin – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .412 – OBP: .417 – ISO: .250 – wRC+:164
Secondary Plays:
Chris Colabello – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .413 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .269 – wRC+:165
Kevin Pillar – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .288 – OBP: .309 – ISO: .085 – wRC+:78
Kansas City at Detroit – 1:08 PM EST
| Kansas City | Detroit | ||||||||
 | Kris Medlen |  | Alfredo Simon | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| KCR (-125) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.198 | 0.615 | 0.276 | 18.6% | SP vs. Left | 0.265 | 0.787 | 0.341 | 13.90% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.280 | 0.712 | 0.310 | 15.6% | SP vs. Right | 0.237 | 0.682 | 0.302 | 16.80% |
| Batter Splits | KCR BvP | KC vs R | Batter Splits | DET BvP | DET vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kris Medlen – Medlen had a bizarre outing against the Indians on Tuesday, throwing six+ shutout innings despite zero strikeouts. He has not been pitching deep into games and has only struck out 16 batters total in his five starts, which really limits his upside. For now, he fits into the “better in real life than in fantasy” category and is not a recommended option unless near minimum salary. Pitcher Rating – 5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 43 – SIERA: 3.94 – ERA: 3.92 – K%: 17.2% – BB%: 6.3% – HR/9: 1.03
Salaries: $6,900 FD, $4,500 DK
Alfredo Simon – Simon has been one of the most frustrating pitchers this season as his peripherals suggest he should get shelled every time out, but he continues to mix in some great starts surrounded by expected rough outings. Two of his last six starts have been shutouts, while in the other four, he has allowed 22 runs in 22 innings. His 4.85 SIERA and low strikeout rate lead me to believe that the good starts are the outlier and we should expect the worst, especially against this Royals offense. Pitcher Rating – 3
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 166 – SIERA: 4.85 – ERA: 4.91 – K%: 14.9% – BB%: 8.6% – HR/9: 1.13
Salaries: $7,800 FD, $5,800 DK
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
The Royals are a top team to target today against Alfredo Simon. As I mentioned he does throw the occasional gem, but his overall numbers suggest very bad things for him. He is particularly weak against left-handed batters, allowing a .367 wOBA with a 12.7% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. Royals lefties are cash game and tournament options, while the right-handed batters can be used as part of stacks, as Simon is nothing special against righties either.
Elite Plays
Eric Hosmer – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .384 – OBP: .391 – ISO: .189 – wRC+:146
Kendrys Morales – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .369 – OBP: .355 – ISO: .223 – wRC+:135
Alex Gordon – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .358 – OBP: .386 – ISO: .172 – wRC+:128
Ben Zobrist – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .338 – OBP: .346 – ISO: .176 – wRC+:116
Mike Moustakas – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .357 – OBP: .353 – ISO: .183 – wRC+:127
Lorenzo Cain – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .347 – ISO: .150 – wRC+:116
Secondary Plays:
Alcides Escobar – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .256 – OBP: .279 – ISO: .055 – wRC+:57
Salvador Perez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .328 – OBP: .305 – ISO: .188 – wRC+:107
Alex Rios – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .294 – OBP: .299 – ISO: .110 – wRC+: 83
Detroit
Medlen has been very good against right-handed batters throughout his career with a high ground ball rate. Most of the Tigers bats you would normally consider are righties and they lose some appeal in this matchup. The top hitters are always tournament options as they are skilled enough to have big games in any situation.
Secondary Plays:
Miguel Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .409 – OBP: .434 – ISO: .191 – wRC+:162
J.D. Martinez – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .380 – OBP: .341 – ISO: .261 – wRC+:142
Ian Kinsler – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .341 – OBP: .350 – ISO: .135 – wRC+:116
Anthony Gose – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .324 – OBP: .339 – ISO: .122 – wRC+:104
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 1:10 PM EST
| Chicago White Sox | Cleveland | ||||||||
 | John Danks |  | Josh Tomlin | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| CLE (-174) | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.231 | 0.698 | 0.308 | 12.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.208 | 0.603 | 0.259 | 21.80% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.277 | 0.813 | 0.353 | 16.7% | SP vs. Right | 0.290 | 0.849 | 0.366 | 22.10% |
| Batter Splits | CHW BvP | CWS vs R | Batter Splits | CLE BvP | CLE vs L | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
John Danks – Danks has not been nearly as bad as we’ve come to expect, and has even put up a couple starts that would have useful for our lineups. He has a 4.18 SIERA with an 18.7% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate over the past month. However, that does not mean he can be recommended as a play by any means. I am just pointing out that he has not been the automatic stack against pitcher that we are used to thinking of him as being. Pitcher Rating – 4
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 161 – SIERA: 4.55 – ERA: 4.56 – K%: 16.5% – BB%: 6.9% – HR/9: 1.28
Salaries: $6,100 FD, $6,900 DK
Josh Tomlin – I have been slow to get on the Josh Tomlin bandwagon, but he just keeps going out and pitching well and making it very hard to ignore what he’s doing. That 1.6% walk rate is incredible, and by far the lowest mark for any starter in the league. To be able to combine that with an above average strikeout rate has made me a believer. I wish we had more than a 50 inning sample size to confirm that this is real, but these numbers say he worth a play in all formats. Pitcher Rating – 8
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 50 – SIERA: 3.17 – ERA: 2.70 – K%: 23.9% – BB%: 1.6% – HR/9: 1.98
Salaries: $8,200 FD, $10,800 DK
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
Josh Tomlin is a tough pitcher to against right now. He has had reverse splits throughout his career, and while it’s a limited sample size, he is allowing a 50% fly ball rate to righties this season, so you could take a GPP shot on Jose Abreu, but that’s about all I’m looking at with the White Sox.
Secondary Plays:
Jose Abreu – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .391 – OBP: .363 – ISO: .251 – wRC+:150
Cleveland
John Danks is always at risk against right-handed power hitters, and has been giving up some home runs to lefties as well this season. I would consider Indians bats in tournaments for the power upside.
Elite Plays
Ryan Rabun – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .411 – OBP: .399 – ISO: .261 – wRC+:166
Francisco Lindor – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .392 – OBP: .397 – ISO: .165 – wRC+:153
Carlos Santana – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .317 – OBP: .376 – ISO: .068 – wRC+:101
Secondary Plays:
Michael Brantley – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .352 – OBP: .359 – ISO: .153 – wRC+:125
Jason Kipnis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .289 – OBP: .293 – ISO: .128 – wRC+:81
Yan Gomes – 2015 vs LHP – wOBA: .224 – OBP: .242 – ISO: .080 – wRC+:37
Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM EST
| Baltimore | Tampa Bay | ||||||||
 | Kevin Gausman |  | Jake Odorizzi | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TBR (-120) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.239 | 0.679 | 0.301 | 20.4% | SP vs. Left | 0.224 | 0.634 | 0.279 | 27.30% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.266 | 0.750 | 0.324 | 18.4% | SP vs. Right | 0.242 | 0.729 | 0.321 | 18.10% |
| Batter Splits | BAL BvP | BAL vs R | Batter Splits | TBR BvP | TB vs R | ||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Kevin Gausman – Gausman has been pretty solid in his 14 starts for Baltimore this season. He has only allowed more than four runs twice, and has above average strikeout and walk numbers. He had one of his best outings in his last start, shutting out Boston in six innings with seven strikeouts. Tampa can be beat by right-handed pitching, and he deserves consideration as an SP2 on sites where his price is low. Pitcher Rating – 6.5
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 93 – SIERA: 3.86 – ERA: 4.15 – K%: 20.8% – BB%: 6.3% – HR/9: 1.45
Salaries: $6,500 FD, $5,600 DK
Jake Odorizzi – Odorizzi is a solid pitcher who does not beat himself, but is at the mercy of the opposing offense. He has been very good at home this season, with a 2.78 ERA and a strikeout per inning. He is a fly ball pitcher in a good ballpark facing a bust of a boom or bust offense in the Orioles who are near the top of the league in both home runs and strikeouts against right-handed pitching. Odorizzi is a decent option today. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 151 – SIERA: 3.81 – ERA: 3.26 – K%: 21.9% – BB%: 6.3% – HR/9: 0.89
Salaries: $8,600 FD, $8,900 DK
Batter Grind Down
Baltimore
Playing against Odorizzi is a tournament only option. He is a reverse splits pitcher, allowing a .318 wOBA to right-handed batters with a 16.7% strikeout rate and a .263 wOBA to left-handed batters with a 25.8% strikeout rate. I am not high on any Baltimore batters, but they could certainly find a home run or two.
Secondary Plays:
Manny Machado – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .378 – OBP: .370 – ISO: .210 – wRC+:140
Adam Jones – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .343 – OBP: .313 – ISO: .213 – wRC+:116
Chris Davis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .389 – OBP: .360 – ISO: .321 – wRC+:148
Tampa Bay
Gausman has been better against left-handed hitters this season with a .284 wOBA allowed and a 23.4% strikeout rate. Against right-handed batters, he has allowed a .355 wOBA with a 17.7% strikeout rate. We are still dealing with a relatively small sample size, and the numbers were more even last season, so I’m not going to stack up righties or avoid lefties. Tampa batters shouldn’t be targeted as core plays, but can be mixed in sparingly, with John Jaso always being a good catcher option where he is near minimum salary.
Elite Plays
John Jaso – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .356 – OBP: .361 – ISO: .182 – wRC+:131
Secondary Plays:
Kevin Kiermaier – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .322 – OBP: .304 – ISO: .180 – wRC+:107
Asdrubal Cabrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .314 – OBP: .319 – ISO: .155 – wRC+:102
Evan Longoria – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .299 – OBP: .303 – ISO: .144 – wRC+:91
Philadelphia at Atlanta – 1:35 PM EST
| Philadelphia | Atlanta | ||||||||
 | Aaron Nola |  | Julio Teheran | ||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| ATL (-139) | 7.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% | Stats | Avg | OPS | wOBA | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left | 0.291 | 0.802 | 0.348 | 10.9% | SP vs. Left | 0.264 | 0.785 | 0.342 | 17.40% |
| SP vs. Right | 0.219 | 0.669 | 0.291 | 29.0% | SP vs. Right | 0.212 | 0.593 | 0.263 | 24.00% |
| Batter Splits | PHI BvP | PHI vs R | Batter Splits | ATL vs R | |||||
| Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window | |||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
Aaron Nola – The Phillies talked about shutting down rookie Aaron Nola, but have decided to let him continue pitching, which could be good for us. He has given up six runs in two of his last three starts due to some home run trouble, but his peripherals looks very good with a 31:6 K:BB ratio and a 3.27 SIERA over his last five starts. The weak Braves offense gives him some upside today as Atlanta is dead last in the league in runs scored by a fairly wide margin. He can be considered on sites where his price is still low. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 65 – SIERA: 3.70 – ERA: 4.11 – K%: 21.7% – BB%: 5.9% – HR/9: 1.51
Salaries: $6,400 FD, $8,200 DK
Julio Teheran – Teheran has been more good than bad over the second half of the season allowing three runs or less in 12 of his last 14 starts. Outside of one disaster start against the Yankees, he has been solid at home all season. He is far from an elite pitcher, but he is a decent option against a beatable Phillies team today. Pitcher Rating – 7
Pitcher Stats 2015: IP: 180 – SIERA: 4.26 – ERA: 4.34 – K%: 20.2% – BB%: 8.8% – HR/9: 1.30
Salaries: $8,200 FD, $7,700 DK
Batter Grind Down
Philadelphia
While the Phillies are not a great offense, and Teheran has been a better pitcher at home, his numbers against left-handed batters are bad enough that they deserve a look. Teheran has allowed a .391 wOBA with an 11.5% walk rate to lefties.
Secondary Plays:
Andres Blanco – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .340 – OBP: .326 – ISO: .203 – wRC+: 114
Odubel Herrera – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .332 – OBP: .332 – ISO: .135 – wRC+: 109
Atlanta
In a limited sample size, Aaron Nola has extreme splits that put the Braves left-handed bats as secondary options, though outside of Freddie Freeman, I would lean toward Nola in this matchup.
Elite Plays
Freddie Freeman – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .385 – OBP: .381 – ISO: .221 – wRC+: 145
Secondary Plays:
Nick Markakis – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .344 – OBP: .392 – ISO: .088 – wRC+: 118
A.J. Pierzynski – 2015 vs RHP – wOBA: .334 – OBP: .336 – ISO: .137 – wRC+: 111