MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, October 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-11 20:07:25

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Cleveland at Toronto – 4:08 PM ET

Cleveland					Toronto
			Corey Kluber					Aaron Sanchez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -120					7.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.284	9	28.4%	23.4%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.292	11	32.7%	21.1%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.266	13	26.8%	29.2%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.260	4	27.9%	19.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Kluber
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,900	Salary:		$12,800
					FPPG:		40.9	FPPG:		23.1
					Pitcher Rating:		65.4	Pitcher Rank:		2
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	97.8	3.58	3.45	28.8%	8.3%	14.1%	32.9%	49.4%	25.3%
2016	32	99.7	3.50	3.14	26.4%	6.6%	12.6%	44.5%	36.3%	27.6%
2015	32	102.3	2.98	3.49	27.7%	5.1%	12.9%	42.4%	35.9%	27.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.04 — K%: 26.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.284
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.61 — K%: 28.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.273

Kluber and the Indians have a chance to sweep the Blue Jays with a win today. Kluber dominated in Game 1, striking out six batters in over six innings of work without allowing a single run. He comes into this game as a small underdog though, largely thanks to the fact that this game is in Toronto. He grades out as the second best pitching option in the slate, but I slightly prefer Jake Arrieta in a more pitcher-friendly environment. Even though he shut the Blue Jays out in Game 1, they did have six hits and two walks against him.

Aaron Sanchez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,600
					FPPG:		34.8	FPPG:		17.9
					Pitcher Rating:		51.3	Pitcher Rank:		4
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	93.0	4.65	3.64	22.0%	11.4%	9.3%	40.0%	41.3%	39.5%
2016	30	97.3	4.01	3.00	20.4%	8.0%	8.2%	54.4%	25.1%	30.7%
2015	11	131.7	4.43	3.22	16.1%	11.6%	7.0%	60.6%	21.6%	21.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.32 — K%: 18.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.291
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.85 — K%: 19.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.277

Sanchez had a solid season for the Blue Jays, but he didn’t end the season in the best of form. His ground ball rate was way down over the last month of play, while his ERA and walk rates were both way up. He also struggled in his first postseason start, allowing six runs to the Indians in a start at home. At this point, it’s hard to trust any pitcher against the Indians, especially one that is in bad form. Even though the Vegas line is trying to draw us in, it’s hard to justify the play. The worst part is that he is priced at or above $9,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians were a top ten offense against right-handed pitching during the regular season and they haven’t slowed down one bit here in the postseason. With a win today, they would move on to the World Series. They draw an exploitable matchup against Aaron Sanchez, who had a 4.31 xFIP against left-handed hitters this season. He also gave up a hard contact rate of 32.7% to lefties.

• Indians Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.63 (2 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays need their offense to show up in a big way. They were one of the best offenses in baseball during the regular season, but their bats have been awfully quiet in the ALCS. They come into the game with the highest implied team total in the slate. While their matchup against Corey Kluber looks tough on paper, they managed to put eight runners on base when they faced him in Game 1. Ezequiel Carrera fantasy value hinges on where he bats in the order.

• Blue Jays Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (6 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (24 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.87 (1 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Michael Saunders

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers – 8:08 PM ET

Chicago Cubs					LA Dodgers
			Jake Arrieta					Rich Hill
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHC -117					6.5
Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	HC%	K%
SP vs. Left (2016)	0.278	7	29.6%	24.3%	SP vs. Left (2016)	0.232	0	23.9%	18.3%
SP vs. Right (2016)	0.246	9	21.8%	23.5%	SP vs. Right (2016)	0.244	4	29.8%	32.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,000	Salary:		$10,800
					FPPG:		37.9	FPPG:		20.4
					Pitcher Rating:		69.3	Pitcher Rank:		1
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	99.0	3.95	4.60	23.6%	8.9%	12.3%	46.8%	25.3%	24.7%
2016	31	100.8	3.94	3.10	23.9%	9.6%	10.5%	52.6%	27.9%	25.2%
2015	33	104.2	2.75	1.77	27.1%	5.5%	11.1%	56.2%	22.8%	22.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.29 — K%: 27.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.241
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.48 — K%: 23.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.244

Arrieta didn’t have as good of a regular season as he did in 2015, but he looked sharp in his first start of the postseason. He struck out five batters in six innings of work against the Giants in San Francisco. He can’t be too happy with the schedule, as his second postseason start also comes on the road. Of the four pitchers in this slate, Arrieta is the one pitcher that I’m not worried about getting pulled early. There is a good chance that the other three starters don’t make it five innings. For that reason, I have him ranked ahead of both Rich Hill and Corey Kluber.

Rich Hill
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,200
					FPPG:		39.2	FPPG:		20.6
					Pitcher Rating:		63.2	Pitcher Rank:		3
Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HC%
L30 Days	5	86.0	2.59	2.22	34.3%	4.8%	10.9%	31.1%	41.0%	34.4%
2016	20	91.0	3.29	2.12	29.4%	7.5%	10.6%	45.3%	35.8%	28.3%
2015	4	108.5	2.29	1.55	34.0%	4.7%	11.3%	48.4%	35.5%	22.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.04 — K%: 27.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.242
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 1.98 — K%: 32.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.223

Hill has as much (if not more) upside as any pitcher in this two-game slate. However, the Dodgers have been quick to pull him in his first two postseason starts and that will likely be the case again if he struggles in Game 3 against the Cubs. Even though he is pitching at home, this is not a great matchup by any means. During the regular season, the Cubs were ranked second in team wOBA and third in team ISO against left-handed pitching. I like the discount that we get when pivoting off of Jake Arrieta, but Hill is a much riskier play.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs couldn’t figure out Clayton Kershaw in Game 2 and now head to Los Angeles for an important Game 3. They are small favorites against Rich Hill and they come into the game with the third highest implied run total in the slate. Hill has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters this season, but he has a 6.43 ERA so far in the postseason. The right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play.

• Cubs Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.182 (3 of 30)
  Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (6 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 5.02 (3 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.35 (3 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers may be playing at home, but they come into the game with the lowest run projection of the four teams in this slate. They draw a difficult matchup against Jake Arrieta, who held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA during the regular season. They do have a number of left-handed hitters to throw at Arrieta, but I still prefer the other three offenses.

• Dodgers Offense (2016)
  Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
  Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (7 of 30)
  Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (18 of 30)
  Runs Per Game — 4.48 (14 of 30)
  Projected Run Total — 3.15 (4 of 4)

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson

Stackability – ORANGE