MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 26th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-08-26 22:29:42

Toronto at Texas – 8:05 PM EST

Toronto					Texas
			David Price					Colby Lewis
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR (-176)					8.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.259	0.66	0.291	0.23	SP vs. Left	0.29	0.804	0.348	0.149
SP vs. Right	0.228	0.638	0.279	0.266	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.76	0.329	0.21
Batter Splits	TOR BvP		TOR vs R		Batter Splits	TEX BvP		TEX vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

David Price : FD: $11,700 — DK: $11,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 424.2 — SIERA: 2.97 — ERA: 2.90 — K%: 25.7% — BB%: 4.2% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.1 — SIERA: 3.34 — ERA: 2.72 — K%: 25.3% — BB%: 5.5% — HR/9: 1.0

Texas Rangers Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 22.2% (Rank: 23)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 17.8% (Rank: 5)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 17)

Analysis: Price has given this Blue Jays’ pitching staff a huge boost since coming over from the Tigers. Over the last month of play, he has a 3.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.3%. While a matchup against the Rangers in Globe Life Park may not be ideal, it’s actually a better matchup than you would think. On the season, Texas is ranked 15th in team wOBA and 23rd in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. The masses will gravitate to Chris Sale and Chris Archer tonight, making Price a very interesting tournament play.

Pitcher Rating: 87.7

Colby Lewis : FD: $6,900 — DK: $7,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 329.2 — SIERA: 4.21 — ERA: 4.75 — K%: 17.5% — BB%: 5.5% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 4.42 — ERA: 3.55 — K%: 15.0% — BB%: 3.8% — HR/9: 1.6

Toronto Blue Jays Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.331 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 18.9% (Rank: 6)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.338 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 19.2% (Rank: 10)
Pitches per PA: 3.83 (Rank: 13)

Analysis: Lewis has actually been a serviceable starter this season, but sometimes the numbers just don’t tell the whole story. He has still struggled with both left and right-handed hitters and he draws one of the toughest matchups in all of baseball. On the season, Toronto is ranked second in team wOBA and sixth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Pitcher Rating: 37.9

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have one of the highest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against Colby Lewis in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Since the start of the 2014 season, Lewis has given up a .329+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Elite Plays:

Edwin Encarnacion : FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 812 — wOBA: 0.382 — ISO: 0.276 — wRC+: 145
Last 30 Days: PA: 84 — wOBA: 0.504 — ISO: 0.343 — wRC+: 230

Troy Tulowitzki : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 631 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.181 — wRC+: 117
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.298 — ISO: 0.141 — wRC+: 87

Secondary Plays:

Josh Donaldson : FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 951 — wOBA: 0.354 — ISO: 0.201 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 115 — wOBA: 0.500 — ISO: 0.438 — wRC+: 228

Jose Bautista : FD: $5,100 — DK: $5,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 937 — wOBA: 0.385 — ISO: 0.260 — wRC+: 148
Last 30 Days: PA: 110 — wOBA: 0.358 — ISO: 0.298 — wRC+: 128

Texas

The Rangers draw an awful matchup tonight against David Price, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 wOBA over the last two seasons. The Rangers’ offense can safely be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

Boston at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM EST

Boston					Chicago White Sox
			Rick Porcello					Chris Sale
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CHW (-194)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.279	0.78	0.339	0.155	SP vs. Left	0.205	0.499	0.232	0.366
SP vs. Right	0.274	0.724	0.317	0.176	SP vs. Right	0.213	0.612	0.27	0.31
Batter Splits	BOS BvP		BOS vs L		Batter Splits	CHW BvP		CWS vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello : FD: $6,900 — DK: $5,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 319.1 — SIERA: 3.94 — ERA: 4.28 — K%: 16.5% — BB%: 5.1% — HR/9: 1.1

Chicago White Sox Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 20.3% (Rank: 16)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 19.6% (Rank: 11)
Pitches per PA: 3.80 (Rank: 18)

Analysis: Porcello is making his first start in nearly a month, after injuring his triceps. He signed a huge deal in the offseason and so far he has not performed up to the level that the Red Sox were hoping. He draws a decent matchup against the White Sox, but until he can string together a few quality outings in a row, he should be avoided in daily fantasy.

Pitcher Rating: 38.6

Chris Sale : FD: $12,500 — DK: $13,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 338.1 — SIERA: 2.45 — ERA: 2.74 — K%: 32.0% — BB%: 5.4% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 31.2 — SIERA: 2.06 — ERA: 5.40 — K%: 38.5% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 0.9

Boston Red Sox Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.330 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 19.0% (Rank: 8)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.410 (Rank: 1) — Strikeout Rate: 15.9% (Rank: 2)
Pitches per PA: 3.96 (Rank: 2)

Analysis: Sale has been as dominant as ever, posting a 2.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 38.5% over the last month of play. While his matchup against the Red Sox is a difficult one, his massive strikeout potential makes him the top pitching option on the board tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 98.3

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are facing Chris Sale tonight and they have to face him in Chicago. This is not the night to target Boston hitters.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw a favorable matchup tonight against Rick Porcello, who is making his first start since coming back from injury. Porcello has given up a .317+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

Jose Abreu : FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,900

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 856 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.245 — wRC+: 153
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.449 — ISO: 0.355 — wRC+: 193

Secondary Plays:

Adam Eaton : FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 773 — wOBA: 0.349 — ISO: 0.144 — wRC+: 123
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.368 — ISO: 0.142 — wRC+: 136

Trayce Thompson : FD: $3,000 — DK: $2,500

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 7 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 161
Last 30 Days: PA: 21 — wOBA: 0.574 — ISO: 0.368 — wRC+: 281

Baltimore at Kansas City – 8:10 PM EST

Baltimore					Kansas City
			Wei-Yin Chen					Johnny Cueto
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KCR (-150)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.662	0.290	0.169	SP vs. Left	0.188	0.543	0.246	0.245
SP vs. Right	0.257	0.762	0.329	0.191	SP vs. Right	0.209	0.627	0.276	0.232
Batter Splits	BAL BvP		BAL vs R		Batter Splits	KCR BvP		KC vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Wei-Yin Chen : FD: $7,900 — DK: $8,100

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 335.0 — SIERA: 3.89 — ERA: 3.36 — K%: 18.5% — BB%: 5.0% — HR/9: 1.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 4.04 — ERA: 4.09 — K%: 19.4% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 1.9

Kansas City Royals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 14.8% (Rank: 1)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.324 (Rank: 11) — Strikeout Rate: 13.9% (Rank: 1)
Pitches per PA: 3.69 (Rank: 30)

Analysis: Chen is a serviceable pitcher for the Orioles, but he rarely stands out as a great fantasy option. He pitches in the tough American League East and rarely has a favorable matchup. Tonight he faces a Royals’ offense that has the lowest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. There is more risk than potential reward with Chen tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 49.8

Johnny Cueto : FD: $11,500 — DK: $10,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 410.1 — SIERA: 3.32 — ERA: 2.43 — K%: 23.8% — BB%: 6.1% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 36.0 — SIERA: 3.99 — ERA: 3.00 — K%: 16.7% — BB%: 2.8% — HR/9: 0.5

Baltimore Orioles Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.319 (Rank: 8) — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 28)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.320 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per PA: 3.82 (Rank: 14)

Analysis: Cueto has been good for the Royals, but his SIERA is up and his strikeout rate is down. Some of that has to do with the move to the American League, but he’s not in the best of form at the moment. He draws a plus-strikeout matchup tonight against the Orioles though, as they have the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Cueto is in play here, but Chris Sale and Chris Archer are both better targets tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 81.2

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the lowest team totals on the board tonight, as they square off against Johnny Cueto, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

Kansas City

The Royals draw a decent matchup tonight against Wei-Yin Chen, who has given up a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters. Lorenzo Cain is a borderline elite play tonight at home, while Ben Zobrist and Alcides Escobar are better secondary options.

Elite Plays:

Lorenzo Cain : FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 305 — wOBA: 0.390 — ISO: 0.192 — wRC+: 153
Last 30 Days: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.363 — ISO: 0.165 — wRC+: 133

Secondary Plays:

Ben Zobrist : FD: $3,600 — DK: $4,100

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: 2B/OF
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 298 — wOBA: 0.388 — ISO: 0.155 — wRC+: 155
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.408 — ISO: 0.196 — wRC+: 165

Alcides Escobar : FD: $2,600 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 315 — wOBA: 0.322 — ISO: 0.104 — wRC+: 105
Last 30 Days: PA: 129 — wOBA: 0.228 — ISO: 0.051 — wRC+: 38

St. Louis at Arizona – 9:40 PM EST

St. Louis					Arizona
			John Lackey					Patrick Corbin
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-108)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.253	0.716	0.314	0.156	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.789	0.335	0.22
SP vs. Right	0.26	0.691	0.303	0.222	SP vs. Right	0.277	0.802	0.346	0.247
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs L		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

John Lackey : FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,000

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 363.2 — SIERA: 3.83 — ERA: 3.44 — K%: 18.9% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 34.1 — SIERA: 3.65 — ERA: 3.41 — K%: 21.5% — BB%: 5.2% — HR/9: 1.3

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.317 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 21.0% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.348 (Rank: 4) — Strikeout Rate: 20.6% (Rank: 13)
Pitches per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 28)

Analysis: Lackey has been in good form recently, posting a 3.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.5% over the last month of play. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the Diamondbacks, who are ranked tenth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and fourth in team wOBA over the last two weeks of play. Lackey is a bit overpriced for his matchup tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 59.9

Patrick Corbin : FD: $6,800 — DK: $7,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 44.0 — SIERA: 3.23 — ERA: 4.09 — K%: 24.1% — BB%: 5.9% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 22.0 — SIERA: 3.61 — ERA: 4.50 — K%: 22.5% — BB%: 8.2% — HR/9: 0.4

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.298 (Rank: 22) — Strikeout Rate: 22.8% (Rank: 25)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 20)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Corbin has been a great value play over the last month or two. On the season, he has a 3.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24.1%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Cardinals, who are ranked 22nd in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season. The only issue here is that Corbin typically doesn’t pitch deep into games. The most pitches that he has thrown in any single start this season is 91.

Pitcher Rating: 70.1

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals may not hit left-handed pitching well as a team, but there are a couple of hitters that are on my radar tonight. Jhonny Peralta and Yadier Molina both excel against southpaws and they are both very cheap options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

Jhonny Peralta : FD: $2,400 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 281 — wOBA: 0.367 — ISO: 0.233 — wRC+: 137
Last 30 Days: PA: 104 — wOBA: 0.297 — ISO: 0.095 — wRC+: 88

Secondary Plays:

Yadier Molina : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: C
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 228 — wOBA: 0.304 — ISO: 0.094 — wRC+: 93
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.281 — ISO: 0.129 — wRC+: 77

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are expected to have a decent offensive outing tonight, but no one stands out as an elite play in this matchup. Since the start of the 2014 season, John Lackey has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 wOBA over the last two seasons. The left-handed bats of David Peralta and Ender Inciarte are viable secondary plays.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

David Peralta : FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 593 — wOBA: 0.376 — ISO: 0.219 — wRC+: 136
Last 30 Days: PA: 95 — wOBA: 0.450 — ISO: 0.218 — wRC+: 186

Ender Inciarte : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,500

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 609 — wOBA: 0.326 — ISO: 0.114 — wRC+: 103
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.318 — ISO: 0.127 — wRC+: 96

Chicago Cubs at San Francisco – 10:15 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					San Francisco
			Kyle Hendricks					Jake Peavy
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SFG (-108)					7
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.255	0.702	0.307	0.178	SP vs. Left	0.243	0.76	0.331	0.179
SP vs. Right	0.246	0.64	0.284	0.192	SP vs. Right	0.263	0.722	0.318	0.188
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Hendricks : FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 216.2 — SIERA: 3.69 — ERA: 3.45 — K%: 18.6% — BB%: 5.2% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.2 — SIERA: 3.68 — ERA: 5.61 — K%: 21.0% — BB%: 9.2% — HR/9: 1.1

San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.322 (Rank: 5) — Strikeout Rate: 18.4% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.302 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 21.3% (Rank: 17)
Pitches per PA: 3.74 (Rank: 25)

Analysis: Hendricks has quietly become a very good pitcher. Over the last two seasons, he has a 3.69 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.6%. The issue tonight is his matchup. On the season, the Giants are ranked fifth in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Hendricks is worth keeping an eye on moving forward, but he can be avoided tonight in San Francisco.

Pitcher Rating: 59.0

Jake Peavy : FD: $7,100 — DK: $6,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 264.2 — SIERA: 4.16 — ERA: 3.88 — K%: 18.3% — BB%: 7.2% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.2 — SIERA: 3.96 — ERA: 3.77 — K%: 20.0% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 0.6

Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 23.9% (Rank: 29)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.382 (Rank: 2) — Strikeout Rate: 24.2% (Rank: 27)
Pitches per PA: 3.99 (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Peavy is a small favorite tonight at home, but I’m not sold on the matchup against the Cubs. Chicago has the second-highest team wOBA over the last two weeks and they average the most pitches per plate appearance on the season. I’m not targeting either pitcher in this matchup, even though the total for the game is set at only 7.0 runs.

Pitcher Rating: 55.4

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Jake Peavy. While their team total is low, Peavy has struggled with left-handed hitters. Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Dexter Fowler are all decent tournament targets, but they can safely be avoided in cash games.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Anthony Rizzo : FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,600

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 825 — wOBA: 0.392 — ISO: 0.261 — wRC+: 152
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.446 — ISO: 0.354 — wRC+: 187

Kyle Schwarber : FD: $4,000 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: C/OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 111 — wOBA: 0.455 — ISO: 0.344 — wRC+: 194
Last 30 Days: PA: 112 — wOBA: 0.366 — ISO: 0.283 — wRC+: 133

Dexter Fowler : FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,900

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 791 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.149 — wRC+: 112
Last 30 Days: PA: 126 — wOBA: 0.458 — ISO: 0.317 — wRC+: 196

San Francisco

Even though I won’t be targeting Kyle Hendricks tonight, I’m not going to have very much exposure to the Giants’ offense either. Since the start of last season, Hendricks has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey : FD: $3,100 — DK: $3,700

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 798 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 144
Last 30 Days: PA: 107 — wOBA: 0.310 — ISO: 0.111 — wRC+: 102

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