MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, October 19th
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs
Cleveland at Toronto – 4:08 PM ET
| Cleveland | Toronto | ||||||||
 | Ryan Merritt |  | Marco Estrada | ||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| TOR -180 | 8.5 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.251 | 0 | 16.7% | 14.3% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.266 | 11 | 26.7% | 22.5% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.134 | 0 | 24.0% | 16.7% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.293 | 12 | 36.4% | 23.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Ryan Merritt | ||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $5,800 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 14.3 | FPPG: | 8.3 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 52.2 | Pitcher Rank: | 4 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 1 | 75.0 | 3.56 | 3.18 | 19.1% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 43.8% | 31.3% | 35.3% |
| 2016 | 1 | 75.0 | 3.37 | 1.64 | 16.2% | 0.0% | 6.3% | 53.3% | 26.7% | 22.6% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 0.00 — K%: 12.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.055
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.18 — K%: 19.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.238
Merritt has one major league start under his belt and the Indians are asking him to go on the road and pitch in a critical Game 5 in the ALCS. To say that he is in over his head is an understatement. He pitched well in his short major league stint this season, but had mediocre numbers in the minors – 3.85 SIERA with a 15.4% strikeout rate. He comes into the game as a massive underdog and appears to be an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments. The Blue Jays’ lineup is loaded with right-handed power hitters.
| Marco Estrada | ||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,900 | Salary: | $9,400 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 32.0 | FPPG: | 17.5 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 74.3 | Pitcher Rank: | 1 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 6 | 95.3 | 4.50 | 3.98 | 25.0% | 11.0% | 11.5% | 27.1% | 56.5% | 24.1% |
| 2016 | 29 | 98.0 | 4.35 | 3.48 | 22.8% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 33.5% | 48.2% | 31.3% |
| 2015 | 28 | 104.0 | 4.64 | 3.13 | 18.1% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 32.2% | 52.3% | 27.4% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.26 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.34 — K%: 20.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274
Estrada has been awesome in each of his two postseason starts this season. He pitched eight and one-third innings against the Rangers and then backed that up with eight innings against the Blue Jays in Game 1. Three earned runs in over 16 innings of works is outstanding for any pitcher in the playoffs. He comes into the game as a huge favorite and he will likely be the chalk at pitcher. The only issue I have with Estrada is that if you roster him, you can only use three Blue Jays’ hitters on FanDuel.
Batter Grind Down
Cleveland
The Indians may be sizable underdogs today, but they still have the second highest implied team total on the board. Marco Estrada has been awesome in the postseason, but he allowed a 4.64+ xFIP to both left and right-handed hitters during the regular season. Even if you decide to roster Estrada, it may not be a terrible play to take a hitter or two against him in this ballpark.
- Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (7 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.175 (9 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.83 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.79 (2 of 4)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.388 | 0.285 | 39.5% | 0.526 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $4,100 |
| 2 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.353 | 0.200 | 38.9% | 0.333 | 2B | $3,400 | 2B | $3,800 |
| 3 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.139 | 26.8% | 0.320 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $4,000 |
| 4 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.242 | 34.9% | 0.178 | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,000 |
| 5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.146 | 25.5% | 0.398 | 3B | $3,300 | 3B/OF | $3,400 |
| 6 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.156 | 28.1% | 0.197 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $2,800 |
| 7 | Coco Crisp | SWITCH | 0.309 | 0.175 | 24.6% | 0.381 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,200 |
| 8 | Tyler Naquin | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.225 | 40.3% | 0.282 | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,700 |
| 9 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.247 | 0.087 | 25.9% | 0.307 | C | $2,100 | C | $2,200 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.339 | 0.184 | 31.6% | 0.325 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis
Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Lonnie Chisenhall
Stackability – YELLOW
Toronto
The Blue Jays should mash at the plate today against Ryan Merritt. He is making his second career major league start and he had mediocre numbers in the minor leagues this season. They should be able to jump on him early and if that’s the case, they will get to face a tired Indians’ bullpen. There is no reason not to load up on the Blue Jays’ offense in both cash games and tournaments against this young lefty.
- Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.324 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.168 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.2% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.69 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.71 (1 of 4)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | HC% vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.209 | 41.3% | 0.443 | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,600 |
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.396 | 0.240 | 38.3% | 0.395 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $5,200 |
| 3 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.275 | 37.8% | 0.349 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,400 |
| 4 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.147 | 45.8% | 0.283 | C | $2,700 | C | $3,500 |
| 5 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.165 | 33.0% | 0.290 | SS | $2,800 | SS | $3,600 |
| 6 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.305 | 0.124 | 32.0% | 0.326 | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,400 |
| 7 | Melvin Upton | RIGHT | 0.367 | 0.258 | 28.9% | 0.185 | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,000 |
| 8 | Ezequiel Carrera | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.123 | 25.0% | 0.353 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,900 |
| 9 | Ryan Goins | LEFT | 0.172 | 0.028 | 25.9% | 0.176 | 2B | $2,100 | 2B/SS | $2,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.328 | 0.174 | 34.2% | 0.311 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Russell Martin
Secondary Plays – Troy Tulowitzki, Kevin Pillar, Melvin Upton
Stackability – GREEN
Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers – 8:08 PM ET
| Chicago Cubs | LA Dodgers | ||||||||
 | John Lackey |  | Julio Urias | ||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||
| LAD -105 | 7.0 | ||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% | Stats | wOBA | HR All. | HC% | K% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.303 | 6 | 34.1% | 20.8% | SP vs. Left (2016) | 0.324 | 3 | 26.2% | 31.6% |
| SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.264 | 17 | 34.6% | 26.5% | SP vs. Right (2016) | 0.322 | 2 | 28.6% | 23.1% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| John Lackey | ||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $9,200 | Salary: | $9,800 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 35.4 | FPPG: | 19.0 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 74.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 2 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 5 | 90.0 | 4.40 | 3.00 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 45.8% | 34.9% | 32.2% |
| 2016 | 29 | 98.4 | 3.83 | 3.35 | 24.1% | 7.1% | 11.5% | 41.0% | 36.3% | 34.4% |
| 2015 | 33 | 94.8 | 3.90 | 2.77 | 19.5% | 5.9% | 9.4% | 46.0% | 33.3% | 30.1% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 2.26 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.273
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.06 — K%: 21.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.309
Lackey is looking for some redemption, after struggling against the Giants in his first playoff start. He gave up three runs on seven hits and was eventually pulled after the fourth inning. The Cubs may not technically be in a must-win situation, but if they lose tonight, Clayton Kershaw will have a chance to close them out. The Cubs need a strong start from Lackey, who has historically pitched well in the postseason. If you are playing on FanDuel and want to load up on the Blue Jays’ offense, Lackey is a decent pivot off of Estrada.
| Julio Urias | ||||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | ||||||||
| Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $7,400 | |||||||
| FPPG: | 25.3 | FPPG: | 12.8 | |||||||
| Pitcher Rating: | 62.1 | Pitcher Rank: | 3 | |||||||
| Statistics | Starts | PitchPS | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | SS% | GB% | FB% | HC% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L30 Days | 2 | 84.5 | 4.49 | 1.04 | 21.1% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 60.9% | 21.7% | 20.8% |
| 2016 | 15 | 94.4 | 3.88 | 3.39 | 25.0% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 43.7% | 29.6% | 28.1% |
Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.05 — K%: 26.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.305
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.72 — K%: 23.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.339
Urias is making his first career postseason start. While experience is an issue, he did pitch well in a relief appearance against the Mets in the NLDS. He’s had a tremendous rookie season, but the Dodgers will be quick to pull him if he struggles early. It will take a near perfect outing from him if he is going to last long enough to be eligible for the win. The Cubs looked awful at the plate last night, but I’m not ready to count them out just yet. I have Urias ranked as the second worst pitching option in the slate.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
This game is basically set as a pick ‘em, which means both teams are projected to score 3.5 runs. The Cubs could not figure Rich Hill out last night and will likely feel a lot of pressure as they head into Game 4. While the matchup isn’t ideal, they are facing a rookie left-handed pitcher in Julio Urias. During the regular season, Chicago was ranked second in team wOBA against southpaws.
- Cubs Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.347 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.182 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.1% (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.02 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.50 (3 of 4)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. LHP | ISO vs. LHP | HC% vs. LHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.380 | 0.187 | 34.7% | 0.455 | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,700 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.438 | 0.327 | 40.5% | 0.331 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B/OF | $4,900 |
| 3 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.367 | 0.154 | 31.3% | 0.495 | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,800 |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.205 | 24.8% | 0.346 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $3,700 |
| 5 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.164 | 30.6% | 0.366 | SS | $2,900 | 2B/3B | $4,700 |
| 6 | Jorge Soler | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.200 | 33.3% | 0.173 | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,900 |
| 7 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.245 | 31.7% | 0.253 | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,100 |
| 8 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.189 | 28.8% | 0.598 | C | $2,700 | C/OF | $3,900 |
| 9 | John Lackey | RIGHT | 0.046 | 0.000 | 25.0% | 0.000 | P | $9,200 | P | $9,800 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.335 | 0.186 | 31.2% | 0.335 | — | — | — | — |
Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant
Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez
Stackability – YELLOW
LA Dodgers
The Dodgers are extremely tough when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. Their lineup is loaded with left-handed bats that are all seeing the ball well right now. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against John Lackey, but he gave up a .303 wOBA to left-handed hitters during the regular season. He also allowed a 34% hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate.
- Dodgers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.48 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.50 (3 of 4)
Projected Lineup
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA vs. RHP | ISO vs. RHP | HC% vs. RHP | wOBA L14 | FD Position | FD Salary | DK Position | DK Salary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Utley | LEFT | 0.334 | 0.152 | 38.8% | 0.325 | 2B | $2,700 | 2B | $3,300 |
| 2 | Corey Seager | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.223 | 39.6% | 0.277 | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,200 |
| 3 | Justin Turner | RIGHT | 0.385 | 0.258 | 37.2% | 0.370 | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,400 |
| 4 | Adrian Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.185 | 36.9% | 0.335 | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,300 |
| 5 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.163 | 32.8% | 0.388 | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 |
| 6 | Joc Pederson | LEFT | 0.386 | 0.278 | 41.3% | 0.446 | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 |
| 7 | Yasmani Grandal | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.268 | 39.7% | 0.435 | C | $2,600 | C | $2,700 |
| 8 | Andrew Toles | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.185 | 32.4% | 0.227 | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,300 |
| 9 | Julio Urias | LEFT | 0.155 | 0.000 | 18.8% | 0.000 | P | $7,400 | P | $7,400 |
| Team Averages | — | 0.347 | 0.190 | 35.3% | 0.311 | — | — | — | — |