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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 6th - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-07 07:10:51

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Atlanta at New Orleans – 8:00 PM

Atlanta New Orleans
atlantanba Vegas Total 205.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 104.0 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 98.90 Team Pace 105.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Eric Gordon Luke Babbitt Anthony Davis Alexis Ajinca
Opp. Season 30 26 17 17 27 Opp. Season 9 14 19 9 26
Opp. Last 7 30 26 17 17 27 Opp. Last 7 9 14 19 9 26

Atlanta

After losing their season opener, the Hawks have won five games in a row. They will be in a pace-up game tonight against the Pelicans, who have averaged nearly six more possessions per game this season than the Hawks have.

It is surprising how bad the Pelicans have been defensively this season. They are right there with the Lakers as the worst defense in the NBA. Through their first four games, they are ranked 29th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Hawks have an implied team total of 104 points tonight, which is the eighth highest of the 20 teams in play.

The Hawks will have all five starters in action tonight, as Kyle Korver is probable after getting the last game off to rest. Isn’t it a little too early to be rest players, coach? This will send Dennis Schroder back to the bench. The Hawks have a great matchup and a high team total, but with a full slate, they are secondary options at their respective positions. Kent Bazemore may be the best play here in the points per dollar sense, but there are better values on the board.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 32.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 19.9
FP/Game: 36.2 — FP/Min.: 1.13

Paul Millsap

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 35.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 17.8
FP/Game: 36.3 — FP/Min.: 1.04

Jeff Teague

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,500
Min/Game: 32.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 23.8
FP/Game: 31.8 — FP/Min.: 0.99

Kent Bazemore

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 28.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 13.8
FP/Game: 22.1 — FP/Min.: 0.79

New Orleans

The Pelicans would be fine if their schedule consisted primarily of second-half games. They can’t seem to start a game out to save their lives, as they constantly find themselves clawing back from huge deficits each game. Despite little evidence to suggest that the Pelicans can stay competitive, Vegas has installed them as very small underdogs tonight against the Hawks.

The Pelicans draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked sixth in points allowed per game and ninth in defensive efficiency this season. Atlanta’s one area of weakness has been rebounding and that’s a trait that they have carried over from last season. Even though this should be a pace-down game for the Pelicans, they still have an implied team total of 101 points tonight.

If you are a frequent visitor of the Grind Down, then I’m sure you have cursed both me and Anthony Davis this season. Davis continues to put up fantasy duds and I continue to recommend him. Davis has not been as aggressive offensively this season, but he still has an adjusted usage rate of 22.0. He is still an elite defender and he should be able to dominate the glass against the Hawks, who have the third worst rebounding differential in the NBA. They say that insanity is doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result. Call me insane if you want, but I have Davis ranked as my top fantasy option on the board tonight. Fade him if you want, but this may be the last time this season that we can target him at this price point with this low of an ownership.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

FD: $10,600 — DK: $10,700
Min/Game: 37.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 22.0
FP/Game: 39.9 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Secondary Plays

Eric Gordon

FD: $5,300 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 34.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 19.6
FP/Game: 23.7 — FP/Min.: 0.70

Miami at Indiana – 8:00 PM

Miami Indiana
miaminba Vegas Total 195.5 indiananba Vegas Total 195.5
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 97.3
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Jordan Hill
Opp. Season 12 10 23 2 30 Opp. Season 6 6 11 19 11
Opp. Last 7 12 10 23 2 30 Opp. Last 7 6 6 11 19 11

Miami

The Heat are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, as they picked up a relatively easy win over the Wolves last night. Dwyane Wade has basically been listed as a permanent game-time decision over the last few years. While nothing has been announced, the Heat sat him in a lot of back-to-backs last season, so keep your eye on that moving forward. Mario Chalmers and Gerald Green both missed last night’s game and both players may be forced out of action again tonight.

The Pacers did not look great defensively in their first couple of games, but they have turned it around. They are now ranked 12th in points allowed per game and 11th in fantasy points allowed per game this season. Both of these teams average less than 100 possessions per game, which should result in a low-scoring affair. With ten games on the schedule tonight, I will have very little exposure to either team in this matchup. Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic are both on my radar in tournaments, but they are both risky cash game options.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 30.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 14.5
FP/Game: 33.6 — FP/Min.: 1.12

Goran Dragic

FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 31.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 16.3
FP/Game: 24.4 — FP/Min.: 0.79

Indiana

The Pacers have bounced back nicely after losing their first three games of the season. They will look for their third win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Heat. As mentioned above, this should be one of the slowest-paced games on the schedule tonight. With a total of only 195.5 points, this game lacks fantasy appeal. C.J. Miles will not play tonight, but his absence doesn’t make a big impact fantasy-wise.

The Heat were one of the best defenses in the NBA last season and so far, that’s the case again this season. They are ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers are only projected to score 97.3 points, which is the second lowest implied team total on the board. Paul George is in play tonight based on his talent alone, but it’s hard to justify paying up for him in cash games in such a difficult matchup. Jordan Hill would also be a nice tournament play if Ian Mahinmi was ruled out. He had a solid 16-point, 10-rebound performance against the Celtics.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul George

FD: $8,500 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 35.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 23.2
FP/Game: 36.4 — FP/Min.: 1.04

Jordan Hill

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 24.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 16.9
FP/Game: 20.1 — FP/Min.: 0.84

Detroit at Phoenix – 9:30 PM

Detroit Phoenix
detroitnba Vegas Total 201.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 96.80 Team Pace 103.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Brandon Knight P.J. Tucker Markieff Morris Tyson Chandler
Opp. Season 14 11 18 19 3 Opp. Season 2 9 8 15 6
Opp. Last 7 14 11 18 19 3 Opp. Last 7 2 9 8 15 6

Detroit

The Pistons lost a single game and you would think the world was ending. Stan Van Gundy said that he may have to rethink the whole bench rotation. That seems like a bit of an overreaction, but either way, it shouldn’t impact the starters.

The Suns struggled on the defensive end of the floor last season and now they are ranked 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The difference? Tyson Chandler. He is an anchor defensively and he really helps protect the rim. While the Pistons have been a nice team to target early on this season, they are only projected to score 98.5 points tonight, which is the seventh lowest implied team total tonight.

Andre Drummond is coming off of a massive 25-point, 29-rebound game against the Pacers, but he draws a more difficult matchup tonight against Tyson Chandler. The sample size is still small, but the Suns are ranked third against centers this season. I’d like to fade Drummond in cash games, but that is a scary proposition with the way that he is playing. Reggie Jackson is a great GPP play, but draws too tough of a matchup to use in cash games. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris are both nice targets, though. KCP has been a minutes monster this season and Morris is facing his twin brother and his former team. ALL THE NARRATIVE.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $9,300 — DK: $8,900
Min/Game: 39.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 21.0
FP/Game: 49.5 — FP/Min.: 1.27

Marcus Morris

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 38.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 18.2
FP/Game: 28.9 — FP/Min.: 0.76

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 34.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 25.6
FP/Game: 31.1 — FP/Min.: 0.91

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,100
Min/Game: 38.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 16.0
FP/Game: 23.0 — FP/Min.: 0.61

Phoenix

The Suns may be 4.5-point favorites tonight, but this does not look like a great matchup for fantasy purposes. This will be a pace-down game for Phoenix and the Pistons are ranked at or above the league average in fantasy points allowed to every position on the floor this season.

A slow pace of play and a stout defense makes the Pistons one of the worst teams to target players against. On the season, Detroit is ranked sixth in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Suns implied team total of 103.0 points doesn’t half bad, but why take the risk with so many games on the schedule tonight. Eric Bledsoe may be worth a look in tournaments and Markieff Morris does get to face his twin brother, but I will be avoiding all Suns’ players in cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Eric Bledsoe

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 34.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 25.1
FP/Game: 37.6 — FP/Min.: 1.11

Markieff Morris

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 26.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 23.2
FP/Game: 23.0 — FP/Min.: 0.88

Houston at Sacramento – 10:30 PM

Houston Sacramento
houstonnba Vegas Total 215.0 sacramentonba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Sprd -6.5 Vegas Sprd 6.5
Team Proj. 110.8 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 100.80 Team Pace 105.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ty Lawson Marcus Thornton James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Darren Collison James Anderson Rudy Gay Willie Cauley-Stein
Opp. Season 27 18 4 27 28 Opp. Season 16 24 26 29 22
Opp. Last 7 27 18 4 27 28 Opp. Last 7 16 24 26 29 22

Houston

The Rockets will be without Dwight Howard, Patrick Beverley, Terrence Jones, and Donatas Motiejunas tonight, as they square off against the Kings in Sacramento. Even with all of the injuries, the Rockets are still 6.5-point favorites in what is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night.

The Rockets draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Rockets have an implied team total of 110.8 points, which is the second highest on the board tonight. DeMarcus Cousins being out doesn’t help the Kings’ defense, but it brings a greater probability of this game turning into a blowout.

I, like many other I expect, have the James Harden curse. I have targeted him every night that he has been on the schedule with the exception of his one good outing, which was against Oklahoma City. Just like Anthony Davis, I will continue to go to the well. Soon enough, I will be pulling up gallons and gallons of water, rather than buckets of dust. At the end of the day, the matchup and price is just too good to pass up. Marcus Thornton remains an elite play with Terrence Jones out. Ty Lawson, Trevor Ariza, Clint Capela, and Corey Brewer are all viable secondary plays tonight.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $9,800 — DK: $10,000
Min/Game: 39.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 27.9
FP/Game: 40.5 — FP/Min.: 1.04

Marcus Thornton

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 32.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 18.9
FP/Game: 24.8 — FP/Min.: 0.78

Secondary Plays

Ty Lawson

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 38.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 14.5
FP/Game: 26.0 — FP/Min.: 0.68

Trevor Ariza

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 36.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 13.0
FP/Game: 22.4 — FP/Min.: 0.62

Clint Capela

FD: $4,500 — DK: $3,700
Min/Game: 17.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 11.5
FP/Game: 18.2 — FP/Min.: 1.07

Corey Brewer

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 28.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 17.2
FP/Game: 19.7 — FP/Min.: 0.70

Sacramento

The Kings will be without DeMarcus Cousins again tonight. In their last game, they decided to bring Kosta Koufos off the bench and since the Rockets start such a small lineup, that will likely be the case again tonight.

The Rockets aren’t as bad defensively as their numbers suggest, but this is still a favorable matchup for the Kings. They are projected to score 104.3 points in this matchup, which is a very large number without Cousins in the lineup. That production is going to have to come from somewhere.

Rudy Gay is the obvious play from the Kings tonight. He has yet to have a breakout game without Cousins in the lineup, but he has faced two tough defenses in the Grizzlies and Suns. He draws a much better matchup tonight against Trevor Ariza and the uptempo Rockets. Darren Collison is a sneaky play at point guard that may fly under the radar. He drew the start on Wednesday night and he has scored at least 20 fantasy points in every game so far this season. Kosta Koufos is still the preferred big man on the Kings. Willie Cauley-Stein is talented, but he had a 0.0 usage rate the other night against the Suns.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gay

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 31.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 22.3
FP/Game: 30.6 — FP/Min.: 0.99

Darren Collison

FD: $5,500 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 31.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 19.0
FP/Game: 22.3 — FP/Min.: 0.72

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo

FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 28.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 20.4
FP/Game: 27.0 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Kosta Koufos

FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: 26.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 12.2
FP/Game: 22.2 — FP/Min.: 0.85

James Anderson

FD: $3,600 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 9.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 22.0
FP/Game: 7.1 — FP/Min.: 0.79

Denver at Golden State – 10:30 PM

Denver Golden State
denvernba Vegas Total 214.0 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Sprd 17.5 Vegas Sprd -17.5
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 115.8
Team Pace 98.70 Team Pace 104.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried J.J. Hickson Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 17 8 1 12 18 Opp. Season 26 30 5 24 2
Opp. Last 7 17 8 1 12 18 Opp. Last 7 26 30 5 24 2

Denver

The final game of the night should be a fun one. The Nuggets and Warriors are two of the fastest paced teams in the NBA and the total for this game is set at 214 points. The major concern here is a potential blowout. The Warriors are whopping 17.5-point favorites and the Nuggets are playing in the second half of a back-to-back.

The Warriors play at one of the fastest paces in the NBA, yet they have held their opponents to the eighth-fewest points per game. That should give you an idea at how good they are defensively. They are ranked first in defensive efficiency and the Nuggets are projected to score less than 100 points tonight. This game has blowout written all over it. That’s never good for the favorite and it’s usually even worse for the underdog. I will be avoiding all Nuggets’ players tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Golden State

The Warriors make everything look easy. They get so many open shots, they make their well-defended shots, and they seem to shut down every opponent in front of them. They are 5-0 to start the season and they have won by an average of 20.8 points per game. They are the largest favorites on the board tonight. The question isn’t about the matchup, it’s whether or not the Warriors’ starters will be able to reach value in three quarters of action.

The Nuggets haven’t been as bad defensively as they were in years past, but I expect that to change after tonight’s game. Their rankings will take a big hit after facing the Warriors. Stephen Curry is obviously a strong play tonight. He has been better than ever, although he may only see three quarters of action tonight. Festus Ezeli is also an elite play here, but only if Andrew Bogut is unable to suit up. The rest of the Warriors are best suited for tournaments.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

FD: $10,900 — DK: $10,300
Min/Game: 32.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 30.7
FP/Game: 53.7 — FP/Min.: 1.68

Festus Ezeli

FD: $3,800 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 20.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 16.5
FP/Game: 21.5 — FP/Min.: 1.08

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,200
Min/Game: 33.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 15.4
FP/Game: 30.0 — FP/Min.: 0.91

Klay Thompson

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,900
Min/Game: 27.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 19.2
FP/Game: 23.4 — FP/Min.: 0.87

Harrison Barnes

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 29.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 14.6
FP/Game: 23.5 — FP/Min.: 0.81

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious