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NBA Grind Down: Friday, November 6th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-08 15:58:38

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

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Toronto at Orlando – 7:00 PM

Toronto Orlando
torontonba Vegas Total 201.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd -6.0 Vegas Sprd 6.0
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 97.8
Team Pace 101.60 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Dewayne Dedmon
Opp. Season 28 17 13 22 7 Opp. Season 13 16 14 7 18
Opp. Last 7 28 17 13 22 7 Opp. Last 7 13 16 14 7 18

Toronto

The Raptors are one of two remaining undefeated teams in the NBA. It’s a race to see who will lose first, Toronto or Golden State. Judging by the fact that the Warriors are winning by an average of 72.4 points per game (that may be a little exaggerated), my money is on the Raptors to lose first. Tonight the team North of the border travels to Orlando to take on the Magic.

The Magic present a nice matchup in terms of potential fantasy production. They are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Orlando also plays at a fast pace and more possessions means more opportunities to score fantasy points for their opponents. The Raptors are favored by six points and have a high implied team total of 103.8 points.

Kyle Lowry is fresh off of his worst fantasy outing of the season, but he had his hands full against Russell Westbrook. Look for him to bounce back tonight against the Magic, who have allowed the third most fantasy points to point guards in the early part of the season. High-volume scorer DeMar DeRozan is also in play. He has an adjusted usage rate of 24.2 and he has averaged 35 fantasy points per game on the season. DeMarre Carroll has struggled with his shot, but he is still seeing more minutes than any player on the Raptors. Jonas Valanciunas makes a nice tournament play with Nikola Vucevic out.

One quick note before we move on: Rather than using the traditional usage rate – which measures the number of possessions a player uses (that includes turnovers), I have adjusted the formula to take turnovers out of the equation. This adjusted usage rate now only includes offensive possessions that end in a shot attempt or an assist, as we don’t want to reward players that have a high turnover rate.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 35.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 20.9
FP/Game: 38.5 — FP/Min.: 1.10

DeMar DeRozan

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 35.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 24.2
FP/Game: 35.0 — FP/Min.: 1.00

Secondary Plays

Jonas Valanciunas

FD: $6,300 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 29.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 16.2
FP/Game: 29.0 — FP/Min.: 1.00

DeMarre Carroll

FD: $6,000 — DK: $5,800
Min/Game: 36.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 16.3
FP/Game: 23.7 — FP/Min.: 0.66

Orlando

The Magic will be without their big man Nikola Vucevic for at least the next couple of games, as he is dealing with a bone bruise in his knee. Dewayne Dedmon is expected to slide into the starting lineup, but we could see the Magic play more small ball with Vucevic out. If anything, his absence solidifies the minutes for Evan Fournier, Tobias Harris, and Aaron Gordon.

The Raptors have played some excellent defense early in the season and it hasn’t been the product of their schedule. They have faced quality opponents in the Thunder, Mavericks, and Bucks. On the season, Toronto is ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defenisve efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The good news is that this game will be played at a fast pace, as both teams have averaged over 101 possessions per game.

Dewayne Dedmon may be a popular value play tonight, but I’d like to see a game or two with him in the starting lineup before deploying him in daily fantasy. I’d rather take a chance on Aaron Gordon, who should see a nice boost in minutes as well. He is coming off of one of his best outings as a professional. Victor Oladipo and Evan Fournier both remain elite plays at shooting guard (small forward for Fournier on DK). They are both seeing heavy minutes and both have high adjusted usage rates in this offense. Tobias Harris can be used in tournaments at small forward, but his minutes are trending in the wrong direction.

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 41.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 18.6
FP/Game: 36.7 — FP/Min.: 0.90

Evan Fournier

FD: $5,500 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 39.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 19.4
FP/Game: 32.2 — FP/Min.: 0.83

Secondary Plays

Tobias Harris

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 30.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 21.3
FP/Game: 28.6 — FP/Min.: 0.95

Aaron Gordon

FD: $4,100 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 19.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 17.4
FP/Game: 19.8 — FP/Min.: 1.04

Milwaukee at New York – 7:30 PM

Milwaukee New York
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 197.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 197.5
Vegas Sprd 2.0 Vegas Sprd -2.0
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 99.8
Team Pace 96.70 Team Pace 101.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tyler Ennis Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Greg Monroe Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Sasha Vujacic Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 21 1 21 18 4 Opp. Season 25 13 15 25 12
Opp. Last 7 21 1 21 18 4 Opp. Last 7 25 13 15 25 12

Milwaukee

The Bucks lost their first three games of the season, but they have won back-to-back games against the Nets and 76ers. Those may not be quality wins, but they are worth just as much in the win column. They will look for their third win in a row tonight against the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. Michael Carter-Williams has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and Jason Kidd has decided to mix things up (surprise, surprise). He will start Tyler Ennis at point guard, with Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez coming off the bench.

The Knicks are about as mediocre of a matchup as we are going to find. On the season, they are ranked between 12th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bucks have an implied team total of 97.8 points in what is expected to be a close game throughout. This should be a pace-up game for Milwaukee, as the Knicks have averaged nearly five more possessions per game this season.

With Michael Carter-Williams out, Tyler Ennis will draw the start at point guard. While it’s hard to ignore a starting point guard at minimum salary, it could be fools gold. Jerryd Bayless and Greivis Vasquez are both very capable backups and we know how inconsistent Kidd can be with his rotations. I am going to list all three guards as secondary plays tonight. The two options that really stand out in this matchup are Greg Monroe and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Both players contribute in all areas of the stat sheet and both are heavily involved offensively.

Elite Plays

Greg Monroe

FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,500
Min/Game: 35.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 19.8
FP/Game: 39.9 — FP/Min.: 1.14

Giannis Antetokounmpo

FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 37.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 18.5
FP/Game: 35.1 — FP/Min.: 0.95

Secondary Plays

Khris Middleton

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 36.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 19.0
FP/Game: 22.3 — FP/Min.: 0.62

Greivis Vasquez

FD: $4,300 — DK: $3,700
Min/Game: 24.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 19.3
FP/Game: 18.5 — FP/Min.: 0.77

Jerryd Bayless

FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 31.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 13.6
FP/Game: 17.1 — FP/Min.: 0.55

Tyler Ennis

FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 8.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 11.5
FP/Game: 4.9 — FP/Min.: 0.61

New York

The Knicks have lost their last two games, but they have been competitive here in the early part of the season. They are listed as 2-point favorites tonight, as they host the visiting Bucks.

Milwaukee’s defense has really struggled in their first five games of the season. They are ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. I chalk up their bad play to a small sample size more than anything, as they have some very good defenders in their lineup. Even though this will be a pace-down game for the Knicks, they are still projected to score 99.8 points at home.

In addition to dunking on LaMarcus Aldridge, Porzingis has also been a viable target in daily fantasy this season. His minutes aren’t quite to where we want them to be, but he is averaging 1.13 fantasy points per minute this season. Foul trouble has been an issue early on, so if he can stay clean tonight, he could see 30+ minutes of action. The Bucks will likely throw a few different defenders at Carmelo Anthony tonight. He will have a tough time reaching value against the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker, and Khris Middleton.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

FD: $5,000 — DK: $5,000
Min/Game: 23.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 21.2
FP/Game: 26.0 — FP/Min.: 1.13

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD: $9,500 — DK: $8,400
Min/Game: 34.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 27.5
FP/Game: 39.2 — FP/Min.: 1.15

Philadelphia at Cleveland – 7:30 PM

Philadelphia Cleveland
philadelphianba Vegas Total 194.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 15.0 Vegas Sprd -15.0
Team Proj. 89.5 Team Proj. 104.5
Team Pace 97.50 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Mo Williams LeBron James Richard Jefferson Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 4 19 7 4 8 Opp. Season 15 4 25 26 24
Opp. Last 7 4 19 7 4 8 Opp. Last 7 15 4 25 26 24

Philadelphia

The Sixers came close to getting their first win, but they are now 0-4 to start the season. Coach Brett Brown mixed up his starting lineup the other night, starting T.J. McConnell and Jerami Grant over Isaiah Canaan and Hollis Thompson. While ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE, Brown will likely keep the same starters for tonight’s contest against the Cavaliers.

On paper, the Sixers may have the worst matchup on the schedule tonight. The Cavaliers are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Sixers are 15-point underdogs in this matchup with a very low implied team total of 89.5 points.

The good news is that the Sixers’ players are immune to the blowout factor. They are looking to develop their young players, so even if they get down big, their starters should still see close to their usual allotment of minutes. There are a lot of decent plays in this lineup, but only T.J. McConnell stands out as an elite play. His price is just too cheap for a starting point guard. Nerlens Noel, Jahlil Okafor, and Nik Stauskas are all viable tournament options.

Elite Plays

T.J. McConnell

FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 28.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 10.2
FP/Game: 24.2 — FP/Min.: 0.86

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

FD: $7,500 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 34.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 18.9
FP/Game: 32.3 — FP/Min.: 0.95

Jahlil Okafor

FD: $5,800 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 34.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 21.1
FP/Game: 27.4 — FP/Min.: 0.81

Nik Stauskas

FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 28.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 20.3
FP/Game: 21.1 — FP/Min.: 0.75

Cleveland

The Cavaliers have won each of their last four games and they have have a positive point differential of 11.2 points per game. They should be able to cruise to another easy win tonight against the Sixers at home.

The Cavaliers draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. While the Cavaliers have a high implied team total of 104.5 points tonight, a lot of that production could come from their bench. If they get up big – and they should, their starters will see very limited action in the second half. With the potential blowout, I will be avoiding the Cavaliers in cash games tonight. Kevin Love and Matthew Dellavedova are both in play for tournaments.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kevin Love

FD: $7,600 — DK: $7,600
Min/Game: 32.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 22.1
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min.: 1.07

Matthew Dellavedova

FD: $4,200 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 25.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 16.0
FP/Game: 22.0 — FP/Min.: 0.88
p.

Washington at Boston – 7:30 PM

Washington Boston
washingtonnba Vegas Total 210.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 105.8 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 103.80 Team Pace 104.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Kris Humphries Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Marcus Smart Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Jared Sullinger Amir Johnson
Opp. Season 3 29 24 13 13 Opp. Season 7 27 29 8 5
Opp. Last 7 3 29 24 13 13 Opp. Last 7 7 27 29 8 5

Washington

The Wizards picked up a big win against the Spurs on Wednesday night. They have to feel pretty good about their start to the season. They will look to improve their record to 4-1 tonight, as they take on the Celtics in Boston.

The Celtics have been fairly stout defensively this season, ranking tenth in defensive efficiency. However, their fast pace of play has caused them to be ranked below the league average in points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. Even though the total for this game isn’t the highest on the board, this may be the fastest-paced game on the schedule tonight. Both teams have averaged more than 103 possessions per game this season.

John Wall and Bradley Beal continue to be one of the best backcourt duos in the NBA. They have both averaged over 33 fantasy points per game this season and they have adjusted usage rates of 23.1 and 24.5, respectively. Both players are starting to become more expensive, but they both deserve consideration as elite plays in an uptempo game against the Celtics. Otto Porter is also on my radar in this one. He has flown under the radar this season, despite playing 35 minutes per game. He is a safe cash game option at the always-thin small forward position.

Elite Plays

John Wall

FD: $9,500 — DK: $9,100
Min/Game: 36.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 23.1
FP/Game: 42.8 — FP/Min.: 1.19

Brad Beal

FD: $7,400 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 35.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 24.5
FP/Game: 33.5 — FP/Min.: 0.96

Secondary Plays

Otto Porter

FD: $5,500 — DK: $4,800
Min/Game: 35.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 12.2
FP/Game: 25.0 — FP/Min.: 0.71

Boston

The Celtics have lost each of their last three games and are now 1-3 to start the season. They will look to end their losing streak tonight, as they host the visiting Wizards. Marcus Smart and Amir Johnson are both questionable to play tonight, so keep an eye on their status as we get closer to lineup lock.

The Wizards have not been the stout defense that we have seen in years past. They are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. This game should be full of fantasy goodness, as there is very little separating these teams. The Wizards are only favored by one point and both teams are projected to score at least 104 points.

If Marcus Smart is ruled out tonight, that would pave a shiny yellow brick road for Isaiah Thomas to lead us to Neverland. Wait, did I get my childhood stories mixed up? Thomas had 27 points and 7 assists in his spot start on Wednesday night. He has always been a dynamic fantasy option and anytime we can safely project him for 30+ minutes, we should take advantage. I’m going to avoid the Celtics’ bigs once again, as a four-man rotation isn’t fun for anyone. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are both secondary plays on the wing.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Thomas

FD: $7,300 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 30.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 29.8
FP/Game: 35.5 — FP/Min.: 1.18

Secondary Plays

Avery Bradley

FD: $5,800 — DK: $4,400
Min/Game: 32.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 17.6
FP/Game: 23.4 — FP/Min.: 0.73

Jae Crowder

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 30.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 12.1
FP/Game: 22.6 — FP/Min.: 0.75

L.A. Lakers at Brooklyn – 7:30 PM

L.A. Lakers Brooklyn
lalakersnba Vegas Total 206.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 105.0
Team Pace 104.60 Team Pace 95.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Markel Brown Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 18 21 20 11 20 Opp. Season 29 5 28 28 29
Opp. Last 7 18 21 20 11 20 Opp. Last 7 29 5 28 28 29

L.A. Lakers

The Lakers may not win many games this season, but they are going to provide us with one of the most favorable fantasy matchups every time they are on the schedule. Tonight’s game against the Nets features two of the four remaining winless teams. It will be a struggle, but one of these teams will walk away with a win tonight.

The Lakers draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 17th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. While the total of the game isn’t the highest on the board, I always love when two bad teams get together. There is generally very little defense played.

Julius Randle has a ton of talent, he just needs to become a little more consistent on a nightly basis. His price is slowly going up, which makes it harder and harder to use him in cash games. That said, given the matchup and his upside, he still deserves the elite play tag tonight. Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams are also on my radar in tournaments. They will both be low owned, yet they both provide good upside at their respective price points.

Elite Plays

Julius Randle

FD: $5,700 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 28.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 20.7
FP/Game: 28.3 — FP/Min.: 1.01

Secondary Plays

Jordan Clarkson

FD: $6,600 — DK: $5,500
Min/Game: 31.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 18.8
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min.: 0.85

Louis Williams

FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 29.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 20.9
FP/Game: 25.8 — FP/Min.: 0.89

Brooklyn

The Nets are looking for their first win of the season tonight. They have lost their first four games by an average of 14.6 points. Luckily, they get to face the struggling Lakers at home. While a win is never guaranteed in the NBA, the Nets are 3.5-point favorites tonight.

The Nets have been an easy team to avoid so far this season, but that all changes tonight against the Lakers. On the season, Los Angeles is ranked dead last in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. If you look at the Defense vs. Position table above, you will see that the Lakers are ranked 28th or worse in fantasy points allowed to point guards, small forwards, power forwards, and centers.

Four of the five starters from the Nets are in play tonight and thanks to their slow start, they are all very affordable. Jarrett Jack has only averaged 24.4 fantasy points per game, but he should be able to turn things around tonight against the Lakers. Joe Johnson is the ultimate letdown player in daily fantasy basketball, but he is only $4,600 on DraftKings and he should play 30+ minutes against the worst defense in the NBA. Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young are both in play down low, as the Lakers’ interior defense has been nowhere to be found this season.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

FD: $7,900 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 33.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 21.2
FP/Game: 32.8 — FP/Min.: 0.99

Jarrett Jack

FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 31.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 21.0
FP/Game: 24.4 — FP/Min.: 0.79

Joe Johnson

FD: $6,100 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 32.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 16.8
FP/Game: 19.8 — FP/Min.: 0.62

Secondary Plays

Thaddeus Young

FD: $5,600 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 29.0 — Adj. Usage Rate: 17.7
FP/Game: 24.3 — FP/Min.: 0.84

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious