NBA Grind Down: Monday, December 26th
Jump to Page 1 2 3
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 215.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 105.5 | Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 0.3 | Pace +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Matthew Dellavedova | Tony Snell | Jabari Parker | John Henson | Proj. Starter | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 7 | 14 | 6 | 22 | 13 | DvP | 11 | 12 | 27 | 18 | 13 | |
DRPM | -0.45 | -1.38 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.42 | DRPM | 3.78 | -0.21 | -0.61 | -1.29 | 1.25 |
Milwaukee Bucks
- Injury Watch:
Mirza Teletovic (Questionable)
- Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5 (9 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 (12 of 22)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (19 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.3 (10 of 22)
- Washington Wizards Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.3 (17 of 30)
The Bucks are 14-14 overall this season and currently sit in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. The Wizards are a team that Milwaukee could end up competing against for one of the last two spots in the playoffs. The Bucks are listed as 4-point underdogs tonight in a game that features an over/under of 215 points. The Wizards have been an exploitable matchup all season, as they are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is the ninth highest in the slate and just above their season average.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is having a breakout season for Milwaukee, averaging 47.8 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 29.9%. Anthony Davis may be the only other player in the NBA that has as much steal and block upside as Giannis. In his two meetings against Washington this season, Giannis has scored 37 and 62 fantasy points, respectively. Matthew Dellavedova is cheap, but there are better value plays that we will get to later on. Jabari Parker is the only other Bucks’ player on my radar tonight. He is averaging 39.6 fantasy points in his last three games and he scored 42 fantasy points in his last meeting against the Wizards.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Giannis Antetokounmpo | $10,600 | $10,300 | 1.37 | 34.8 | 1.2 | 47.8 | 5.9 | 29.9% | -0.2% | 7 | -0.45 |
Matthew Dellavedova | $3,700 | $3,700 | 0.66 | 28.2 | 0.5 | 18.5 | -5.2 | 19.1% | -2.6% | 14 | -1.38 |
Tony Snell | $3,600 | $3,300 | 0.53 | 29.4 | 0.0 | 15.6 | 0.8 | 12.7% | -3.0% | 6 | 1.36 |
Jabari Parker | $6,900 | $6,900 | 0.96 | 32.8 | 2.9 | 31.5 | 8.1 | 25.8% | 1.3% | 22 | 1.36 |
John Henson | $4,400 | $4,000 | 0.94 | 20.4 | 1.1 | 19.1 | 0.4 | 16.9% | 0.7% | 13 | 1.42 |
Greg Monroe | $4,800 | $4,500 | 1.19 | 19.2 | -0.3 | 22.9 | -2.2 | 22.6% | -1.7% | 13 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jabari Parker
Secondary Plays – NONE
Washington Wizards
- Injury Watch:
Ian Mahinmi (Out)
- Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.5 (4 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (4 of 22)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (14 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -0.3 (14 of 22)
- Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.1 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.1 (12 of 30)
The Wizards have won six of their last ten games, but are still on the outside looking in when it comes to the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Bucks at home in what should be a close, high scoring game. Even though Milwaukee is ranked tenth in points allowed per game, the Wizards have an implied total of 109.5 points. Their team total is the fourth highest in the slate and 4.5 points above their season average.
John Wall seems to get better every season. Through the first 29 games, he is averaging 44.6 fantasy points with a top five true usage rate of 34.9%. He’ll likely have to deal with Matthew Dellavedova, who is an above-average on ball defender. In their two meetings this season, Wall is averaging 41 fantasy points per game, which is below his season average. Bradley Beal has been quiet in the last few games, but makes sense as a low-owned tournament play at home. Otto Porter and Markieff Morris always seem to grade out as viable plays at their respective positions, but they are better tournament plays given their inconsistencies. Marvin Gortat should see around 35 minutes against a beatable Bucks’ frontcourt. He is a high-floor cash game target on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Wall | $9,700 | $8,800 | 1.24 | 36.1 | -0.9 | 44.6 | -3.9 | 34.9% | -4.5% | 11 | 3.78 |
Bradley Beal | $6,900 | $6,300 | 0.91 | 34.8 | -2.4 | 31.5 | -5.5 | 26.5% | 1.4% | 12 | -0.21 |
Otto Porter | $5,400 | $5,300 | 0.83 | 33.5 | -8.3 | 27.7 | -4.3 | 14.9% | 2.7% | 27 | -0.61 |
Markieff Morris | $5,100 | $4,900 | 0.77 | 31.5 | -0.5 | 24.2 | -5.6 | 20.0% | -3.7% | 18 | -1.29 |
Marcin Gortat | $6,100 | $5,800 | 0.83 | 35.4 | -0.7 | 29.4 | -1.0 | 13.9% | 2.8% | 13 | 1.25 |
Kelly Oubre | $3,800 | $3,500 | 0.67 | 18.6 | -0.3 | 12.4 | 0.0 | 14.3% | 0.8% | 27 | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall (DK)
Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD), Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat
Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
Memphis Grizzlies | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 193.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 193.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
Team Total | 98.0 | Team Total | 95.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -1.1 | Pace +/- | -3.3 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Mike Conley | Tony Allen | Chandler Parsons | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Proj. Starter | D.J. Augustin | Evan Fournier | Aaron Gordon | Serge Ibaka | Bismack Biyombo | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 19 | 8 | 13 | 10 | 26 | DvP | 2 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
DRPM | -1.94 | -1.57 | -1.04 | 0.54 | 1.02 | DRPM | -0.44 | 1.74 | 0.11 | 1.14 | 2.24 |
Memphis Grizzlies
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 97.4 (29 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.0 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.6 (13 of 22)
Pace of Play: 95.4 (28 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -1.1 (15 of 22)
- Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 203.1 (14 of 30)
The Grizzlies have won six of their last ten games and are 20-12 overall. Tonight they head to Orlando for a game that I will have very little exposure to. Both of these teams are ranked in the bottom ten in pace of play and they are both ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game. This is the exact opposite type of environment that we are looking to target in daily fantasy. Even though the Grizzlies’ implied total of 98 points is above their season average, it is still the fourth lowest of the 22 teams in action tonight.
Mike Conley grades out as a terrific play on DraftKings at a price of only $6,400, but the Grizzlies have been all over the map when it comes to his minutes. His matchup against the likes of Elfrid Payton and D.J. Augustin sticks out like a sore thumb, but it’s hard to recommend Conley in anything outside of GPPs. With Chandler Parsons back in the mix and playing limited minutes, all of the wing players for Memphis can be avoided. Marc Gasol is averaging 42.4 fantasy points in his last three games and is a bit too cheap on DraftKings ($7,200). He’s not my favorite play on the board given the expected pace of this games, but I will certainly have some exposure to him in tournaments.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mike Conley | $7,000 | $6,400 | 1.04 | 31.5 | -2.1 | 32.7 | 0.0 | 28.9% | 1.4% | 19 | -1.94 |
Tony Allen | $4,400 | $4,700 | 0.76 | 27.7 | 3.8 | 21.2 | -2.0 | 17.7% | -5.9% | 8 | -1.57 |
Chandler Parsons | $4,200 | $3,400 | 0.62 | 19.5 | -4.5 | 12.0 | -2.0 | 20.7% | -1.1% | 13 | -1.04 |
JaMychal Green | $4,900 | $4,600 | 0.73 | 29.7 | -1.2 | 21.8 | -1.2 | 14.7% | -1.6% | 10 | 0.54 |
Marc Gasol | $8,000 | $7,200 | 1.07 | 34.0 | 2.1 | 36.4 | 6.0 | 28.3% | 2.1% | 26 | 1.02 |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – Mike Conley (DK), Marc Gasol (DK)
Orlando Magic
- Injury Watch:
Evan Fournier (Questionable)
- Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 98.3 (28 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.5 (22 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (19 of 22)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (20 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -3.3 (21 of 22)
- Memphis Grizzlies Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.6 (2 of 30)
The Magic have lost six of their last ten games and are four games below .500 overall. To make matters worse, they draw one of the worst possible matchups tonight, as they host the visiting Grizzlies. On the season, Memphis is ranked 28th in pace of play, second in points allowed per game, and first in defensive efficiency. The Magic have an implied total of only 95.5 points, which is the lowest in the entire slate. If you look at the DvP chart above, you can see that the Grizzlies are ranked tenth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. The Magic are an easy fade tonight, especially since there are ten other games that we can target. Evan Fournier is listed as questionable, but even if he’s ruled out, there aren’t any plays that stand out as viable fantasy options.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D.J. Augustin | $3,600 | $3,600 | 0.73 | 20.6 | 0.9 | 15.1 | -1.5 | 22.0% | -2.4% | 2 | -0.44 |
Evan Fournier | $5,900 | $6,000 | 0.80 | 33.4 | 6.3 | 26.9 | 8.2 | 24.2% | 0.5% | 10 | 1.74 |
Aaron Gordon | $4,000 | $4,700 | 0.76 | 25.8 | -2.3 | 19.5 | -3.9 | 20.1% | 0.6% | 1 | 0.11 |
Serge Ibaka | $6,300 | $6,300 | 0.94 | 30.6 | 3.3 | 28.7 | 11.5 | 20.2% | 2.5% | 5 | 1.14 |
Bismack Biyombo | $4,900 | $4,400 | 0.78 | 26.5 | 2.2 | 20.6 | 4.1 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 1 | 2.24 |
Nikola Vucevic | $6,600 | $6,300 | 1.14 | 27.8 | 3.2 | 31.6 | 0.8 | 24.7% | 1.2% | 1 | N/A |
Elfrid Payton | $6,000 | $6,000 | 0.92 | 28.8 | 3.3 | 26.5 | 8.8 | 24.5% | 1.9% | 2 | N/A |
Elite Plays – NONE
Secondary Plays – NONE
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 217.5 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 217.5 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 112.3 | Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 5.8 | Pace +/- | 0.0 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | Proj. Starter | Jeremy Lin | Sean Kilpatrick | Bojan Bogdanovic | Trevor Booker | Brook Lopez | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 29 | 29 | 30 | 29 | 30 | DvP | 16 | 12 | 22 | 15 | 25 | |
DRPM | -0.10 | -2.10 | -2.72 | 2.04 | 0.11 | DRPM | -0.75 | 0.37 | 2.05 | 0.32 | 1.98 |
Charlotte Hornets
- Injury Watch:
Marco Belinelli (Questionable)
- Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 112.3 (2 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 8.0 (2 of 22)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (16 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 5.8 (1 of 22)
- Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 114.7 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.9 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 227.8 (30 of 30)
The Hornets are looking for their fourth win in a row tonight, as they head to Brooklyn to take on the Nets. This is always one of the top matchups to target in DFS because the Nets are ranked 30th in points allowed per game, 28th in defensive efficiency, and 26th in rebounding differential. The Hornets come into the game as 7-point favorites with an implied total of 112.3 points. Not only does Charlotte have the second highest team total on the board, but it is a whopping eight points above their season average. We can give a sizable boost to the Hornets’ offense as a whole.
Kemba Walker is coming off of a solid three-game stretch, averaging 40.5 fantasy points with a true usage rate just below 30%. He has slightly better numbers at home than he does on the road, but we should be willing to overlook that with a matchup against Brooklyn. The Nets are ranked 29th in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Nicolas Batum is playing his best basketball of the season, but I always have a hard time paying premiums for players that I eventually expect to cool off. I see Batum as a nice play in tournaments, but I may look elsewhere in cash games. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams are two players that I typically don’t play often, but I like their upside in a matchup against the Nets. Cody Zeller has quietly averaged 31 minutes and 28.7 fantasy points in his last three games. He is a sneaky play on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $8,000 | $8,100 | 1.09 | 33.5 | 2.4 | 36.4 | 4.1 | 30.5% | -1.6% | 29 | -0.10 |
Nicolas Batum | $7,500 | $7,800 | 0.94 | 34.7 | 1.7 | 32.6 | 6.2 | 22.4% | 0.2% | 29 | -2.10 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,500 | $4,300 | 0.75 | 28.7 | -1.1 | 21.6 | -0.3 | 14.6% | 1.7% | 30 | -2.72 |
Marvin Williams | $4,400 | $4,800 | 0.72 | 27.4 | 0.4 | 19.8 | 3.9 | 17.1% | -0.3% | 29 | 2.04 |
Cody Zeller | $5,100 | $5,000 | 0.88 | 26.1 | 4.9 | 22.9 | 5.8 | 16.9% | 0.9% | 30 | 0.11 |
Frank Kaminsky | $4,200 | $4,000 | 0.82 | 25.0 | -4.8 | 20.4 | -1.2 | 21.4% | 1.5% | 29 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker
Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller
Brooklyn Nets
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.3 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (15 of 22)
Pace of Play: 104.5 (1 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.0 (12 of 22)
- Charlotte Hornets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.8 (21 of 30)
The Nets may have the worst record in the NBA, but they are always one of our favorite teams to see on the schedule, especially when they are playing at home. They are ranked first in pace of play and they rarely play any defense. The fact that they are playing at home should help keep the game close, as six of the Nets’ seven wins have come in Brooklyn. The Nets draw a tough matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. Despite the difficult matchup, there are two players on my radar for tournaments tonight on DraftKings – Jeremy Lin and Brook Lopez. Lin has played 32 and 25 minutes in his last two games and could push for 30 minutes tonight in a decent matchup against Kemba Walker. Lin is averaging an impressive 1.11 fantasy points per minute this season. Lopez has the best matchup of the five starters, as the Hornets are ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed to centers. Lopez is only $6,400 on DraftKings.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jeremy Lin | $6,400 | $5,900 | 1.11 | 25.3 | 1.9 | 28.0 | -1.4 | 28.7% | -2.5% | 16 | -0.75 |
Sean Kilpatrick | $4,600 | $4,600 | 0.87 | 27.5 | -2.0 | 23.9 | -4.5 | 25.2% | -1.2% | 12 | 0.37 |
Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,000 | $4,200 | 0.73 | 27.1 | -5.8 | 19.7 | -11.6 | 20.9% | -3.0% | 22 | 2.05 |
Trevor Booker | $5,300 | $5,700 | 0.94 | 28.0 | -6.1 | 26.2 | -9.3 | 16.9% | 1.5% | 15 | 0.32 |
Brook Lopez | $7,300 | $6,400 | 1.15 | 28.6 | -2.2 | 32.9 | -2.6 | 28.3% | 1.7% | 25 | 1.98 |
Elite Plays – Brook Lopez (DK)
Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez (FD), Jeremy Lin (DK)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 202.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 98.5 | Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | -3.0 | Pace +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | DeAndre Liggins | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Jon Leuer | Andre Drummond | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 23 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 9 | DvP | 16 | 26 | 9 | 3 | 11 | |
DRPM | -0.87 | 0.62 | 0.36 | 1.35 | 2.17 | DRPM | -2.41 | 0.36 | 1.22 | 1.47 | 1.88 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
- Injury Watch:
J.R. Smith (Out)
LeBron James (Questionable)
Kyrie Irving (Questionable)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.8 (4 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.5 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -12.3 (22 of 22)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (15 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: -3.0 (20 of 22)
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.0 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.5 (9 of 30)
This season has been full of vague terms to describe players. After the Cavaliers beat the Warriors on Christmas, Tyronn Lue said that LeBron James and Kyrie Irving were both “iffy” for tonight’s game against the Pistons. There was a report this morning that said they were expected to play, but now both players are back to being “iffy.” Given the fact that they are listed as 5-point underdogs against Detroit, I would consider both players to be truly 50/50. Without knowing their availability, it’s hard to break down the Cavaliers’ matchup tonight against the Pistons. We do know that Detroit is a top five defense and that Cleveland currently has an implied total of 98.5 points. If one or both of James and Irving sit out tonight, it would obviously give a major boost to Kevin Love. He would become close to a must play if they are both ruled out and he would be close to an elite play if one of them were ruled out. Luckily, the game tips off at 7:30 ET, so we should have an update before lineups lock.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyrie Irving | $7,900 | $7,600 | 1.06 | 34.7 | 0.4 | 36.7 | 16.8 | 30.5% | -1.0% | 23 | -0.87 |
DeAndre Liggins | $3,500 | $3,200 | 0.54 | 15.0 | 6.5 | 8.0 | -0.6 | 11.4% | -2.8% | 5 | 0.62 |
LeBron James | $10,000 | $9,700 | 1.30 | 36.9 | -2.9 | 47.9 | -1.5 | 33.2% | 3.1% | 4 | 0.36 |
Kevin Love | $8,400 | $8,200 | 1.19 | 31.9 | -3.5 | 38.1 | -4.7 | 26.0% | -1.1% | 3 | 1.35 |
Tristan Thompson | $5,200 | $4,900 | 0.81 | 28.7 | -2.0 | 23.3 | 4.8 | 10.1% | 4.2% | 9 | 2.17 |
Kay Felder | $3,700 | $3,000 | 0.89 | 9.7 | -0.9 | 8.6 | 1.2 | 24.5% | 6.2% | 23 | N/A |
Iman Shumpert | $4,200 | $4,000 | 0.62 | 23.2 | 2.3 | 14.4 | 3.6 | 14.8% | 2.4% | 5 | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD
Secondary Plays – TBD
Detroit Pistons
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 98.4 (27 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 103.5 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (3 of 22)
Pace of Play: 95.7 (27 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 0.1 (11 of 22)
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.8 (8 of 30)
The Pistons are looking to snap their five game losing streak tonight against the defending-champion Cavaliers. That seems like a tall task on paper, but Cleveland is playing in the second half of a back-to-back and there is a chance that LeBron James and/or Kyrie Irving could sit out tonight’s game. The Cavaliers’ haven’t been nearly as stout defensively this season, ranking right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Pistons have an implied total of 103.5 points, which gives them the third highest projected point differential in the slate (+5.1 points).
Reggie Jackson has been inconsistent this season, but he has flashed his upside and he is coming off of a season-high 30-minute game against the Warriors. The best way to attack Cleveland is at point guard, as they are ranked 16th against the position. Kyrie Irving also has one of the worst DRPM’s of any point guard in the NBA. Jackson is worth a look in tournaments, as he should have a sub-10% ownership. Jon Leuer was inserted into the starting lineup the other night and he played 33 minutes. If that is a trend moving forward, I’d like to take advantage of it before his price goes up. The matchup against Cleveland is not in his favor, but I still see him as a borderline elite play tonight. Andre Drummond is always worth a look at home, where he is averaging 8.4 fantasy points more than he is when he’s playing on the road.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reggie Jackson | $5,500 | $5,400 | 0.89 | 26.1 | 0.5 | 23.1 | -0.1 | 31.2% | -1.3% | 16 | -2.41 |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,500 | $5,300 | 0.74 | 33.3 | -1.2 | 24.7 | -5.6 | 20.7% | -2.2% | 26 | 0.36 |
Marcus Morris | $4,200 | $4,500 | 0.68 | 31.8 | -4.2 | 21.7 | -8.8 | 19.8% | 0.8% | 9 | 1.22 |
Jon Leuer | $4,900 | $5,000 | 0.82 | 26.9 | 1.0 | 22.1 | 1.6 | 17.3% | 1.1% | 3 | 1.47 |
Andre Drummond | $7,400 | $6,900 | 1.16 | 30.0 | 0.7 | 34.7 | -7.0 | 21.7% | -3.2% | 11 | 1.88 |
Tobias Harris | $5,500 | $5,300 | 0.78 | 32.6 | -4.0 | 25.5 | -2.3 | 21.3% | 0.0% | 3 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jon Leuer
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP)
Phoenix Suns at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
Phoenix Suns | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
![]() | Vegas Total | 230.0 | ![]() | Vegas Total | 230.0 | |||||||
Vegas Spread | 13.0 | Vegas Spread | -13.0 | |||||||||
Team Total | 108.5 | Team Total | 121.5 | |||||||||
Pace +/- | 1.6 | Pace +/- | 4.7 | |||||||||
Proj. Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Marquese Chriss | Tyson Chandler | Proj. Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Montrezl Harrell | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 5 | 23 | 26 | 22 | 17 | DvP | 25 | 21 | 24 | 25 | 23 | |
DRPM | 1.23 | -0.82 | 1.78 | -0.60 | 0.60 | DRPM | -0.37 | -2.36 | 0.68 | -0.42 | 2.07 |
Phoenix Suns
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.5 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.4 (10 of 22)
Pace of Play: 103.4 (2 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 1.6 (5 of 22)
- Houston Rockets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 202.2 (18 of 30)
The Suns are 9-21 on the season, which is tied for the worst record in the Western Conference. While fans in Phoenix may not be happy with their team, we always like seeing them on the schedule. They play a lot like the Nets in that they love to push the pace and they often forget to play defense. The Suns draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets in a game that features an over/under of 230 points. The main concern here is a potential blowout, as the Suns are listed as 13-point underdogs. The good news is that they have the fifth highest implied total in the slate at 108.5 points.
Eric Bledsoe has been the one Suns’ player that I’ve had the most exposure to this season, but he is an easy fade tonight. Patrick Beverley is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. When these two teams met a week ago, Bledsoe scored only 26 fantasy points in 31 minutes of action. The fact that Bledsoe has a tough matchup opens the door for Devin Booker, who is finally showing the type of upside that we saw from him in his rookie season. In his last three games, he is averaging 36.3 fantasy points per contest. His price is up across the industry, but dollar-for-dollar, he is still one of my favorite plays at shooting guard. P.J. Tucker could see big minutes tonight if he can stay out of foul trouble, but that’s tough to do when you are defending James Harden. I’d rather take a chance on T.J. Warren, who has scored 29 fantasy points in back-to-back games.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Bledsoe | $8,200 | $7,900 | 1.09 | 32.4 | 1.1 | 35.4 | 1.1 | 29.1% | -0.6% | 5 | 1.23 |
Devin Booker | $6,200 | $6,700 | 0.82 | 33.3 | 0.9 | 27.3 | 9.0 | 27.2% | 1.5% | 23 | -0.82 |
P.J. Tucker | $4,400 | $4,300 | 0.63 | 26.9 | 7.0 | 16.9 | 8.0 | 11.3% | -1.5% | 26 | 1.78 |
Marquese Chriss | $3,500 | $3,400 | 0.74 | 16.7 | -3.6 | 12.3 | -3.1 | 19.1% | 0.3% | 22 | -0.60 |
Tyson Chandler | $5,100 | $5,000 | 0.82 | 27.9 | 0.5 | 23.0 | -3.2 | 10.7% | 2.3% | 17 | 0.60 |
Brandon Knight | $4,600 | $4,500 | 0.82 | 24.0 | -0.9 | 19.6 | 3.8 | 27.0% | 1.1% | 23 | N/A |
Elite Plays – Devin Booker
Secondary Plays – T.J. Warren
Houston Rockets
- Injury Watch:
Clint Capela (Out)
- Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 112.9 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 121.5 (1 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 8.6 (1 of 22)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (8 of 30)
Projected Pace Differential: 4.7 (2 of 22)
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.6 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.4 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 213.1 (28 of 30)
The Rockets have won eight of their last ten games and are 22-9 overall. They draw a near perfect matchup tonight against the Suns, who are ranked second in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The only thing holding the Rockets back from a perfect matchup is the 13-point spread. I generally don’t shy away from targeting the favored teams in potential blowouts because the upside is always massive if the game stays relatively close. The Rockets have an implied total of 121.5 points, which is the highest in the slate and 8.6 points above their season average.
People may be hesitant to play spend close to $12,000 on James Harden in a potential blowout, but he is close to a cash game lock in my eyes. There is a ton of value in the slate, which makes it easy to afford Harden on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Without Russell Westbrook in the slate, James Harden has the highest floor of any player available tonight. It’s hard to fade that in cash games, especially with all of the value available. Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, and Eric Gordon are all viable plays at their respective positions. The three don’t stand out as must starts, but I’m perfectly fine rostering them if I need a player at their price points. Montrezl Harrell has played at least 27 minutes and has scored at least 28 fantasy points in back-to-back games. As long as he draws the start tonight, he grades out as one of the top value plays in the slate.
Notable Fantasy Players
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FP/Min | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Game | L3 +/- | True Usage | L3 +/- | DvP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Beverley | $5,800 | $5,800 | 0.83 | 30.8 | 2.0 | 25.4 | 4.1 | 16.1% | 1.1% | 25 | -0.37 |
James Harden | $11,600 | $11,900 | 1.43 | 36.7 | -0.8 | 52.6 | -2.8 | 38.0% | -0.8% | 21 | -2.36 |
Trevor Ariza | $5,600 | $5,300 | 0.75 | 33.5 | 1.6 | 25.2 | -3.1 | 15.3% | -1.5% | 24 | 0.68 |
Ryan Anderson | $5,900 | $5,400 | 0.72 | 30.9 | 2.8 | 22.3 | 4.3 | 17.6% | 0.0% | 25 | -0.42 |
Montrezl Harrell | $4,500 | $4,600 | 0.91 | 15.1 | 10.9 | 13.7 | 11.0 | 18.6% | 0.2% | 23 | 2.07 |
Eric Gordon | $5,700 | $5,900 | 0.83 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 25.4 | 2.3 | 23.6% | 3.3% | 21 | N/A |