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NBA Grind Down: Monday, January 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-27 01:20:55

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Boston Celtics at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Boston Celtics Washington Wizards
bostonnba Vegas Total 213.5 washingtonnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 105.5 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 101.10 Team Pace 99.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger Proj. Starter John Wall Garrett Temple Otto Porter Nene Hilario Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 6 26 29 7 12 Opp. Season 1 8 23 26 17
Last 3 Weeks 11 11 26 3 8 Last 3 Weeks 3 14 17 29 11

Boston Celtics

Record: 24-21 — Road: 12-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have lost five of their last ten games, but are still three games above .500 on the season. Tonight they head to Washington to take on the Wizards in what is expected to be a close, high scoring game. The Celtics are projected to score 105.5 points, which is the sixth highest team total on the board.

The Wizards have been much better defensively over the last few weeks, but are still ranked below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Wizards have been tough on point guards and opposing bigs this season, but they have really struggled to defend wing players, ranking 26th against shooting guards and 29th against small forwards.

Elite Plays

Avery Bradley

Bradley has been playing all of the minutes that he can handle recently, averaging 28.4 fantasy points in 35.7 minutes over his last five games. He should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s tonight in a favorable matchup against the Wizards. Given his projected playing time, he is a safe shooting guard option in cash games.

FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 35.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.5 | Last Five Games: 28.4

Secondary Plays

Jae Crowder

Crowder continues to play well for the Celtics. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29.1 fantasy points in 33.9 minutes per contest. Even with the Celtics being healthy, hit minutes have not taken a hit. Like Avery Bradley, he draws a favorable matchup against the Wizards, who have struggled to contain opposing wing players.

FD — $6,600 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 16.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 26.8 | Last Five Games: 29.1

Marcus Smart

Smart continues to come off the bench, but he is seeing starter-esque minutes. Over his last five games, he is averaging 25.6 fantasy points in 28.8 minutes per contest. While he is listed as a point guard, he spends a lot of his time at the two. He is an intriguing tournament play tonight against Washington.

FD — $5,200 — PG
DK — $4,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.9 | Last Five Games: 28.8
FP/Game — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 25.6

Washington Wizards

Record: 20-21 — Home: 10-13 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards have won five of their last ten games and have slowly climbed back into the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they are listed as 2.5-point favorites against the visiting Celtics. The Wizards are projected to score 108 points, which is 5.8 points higher than their average on the season.

The Celtics have been stout defensively this season, ranking 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Despite the tough matchup on paper, Vegas is expecting a big game from the Wizards tonight at home. We can give their offense a small boost as a whole.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

John Wall

This is one of those matchups where the DvP suggests one thing, but my gut suggests another. The Celtics have been very tough one point guards this season, which should help lower Wall’s ownership tonight. While there are better plays for cash games, Wall is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board.

FD — $10,000 — PG
DK — $9,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.7 | Last Five Games: 26.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 40.8 | Last Five Games: 44.6

Marcin Gortat

Gortat has been terrific over the last couple of months. While the Wizards’ frontcourt is slowly getting healthy, it hasn’t impacted Gortat’s playing time. Over his last five games, he is averaging 35.9 fantasy points in 36.1 minutes per contest. He also draws a nice matchup against an undersized Celtics’ frontcourt.

FD — $7,200 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 35.9

Nene Hilario

Long gone are the days where Hilario is going to average 30 minutes per game, but he is back in the starting lineup and should see minutes in the mid-20s tonight against the Celtics. This is a favorable matchup, as the Celtics have had trouble containing opposing bigs this season.

FD — $4,400 — PF
DK — $4,500 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 20.1
FP/Game — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 22.4

Minnesota Timberwolves at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM

Minnesota Timberwolves Cleveland Cavaliers
minnesotanba Vegas Total 203.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Sprd 13.5 Vegas Sprd -13.5
Team Proj. 94.8 Team Proj. 108.3
Team Pace 97.10 Team Pace 94.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Timofey Mozgov
Opp. Season 20 4 4 5 1 Opp. Season 19 16 15 8 13
Last 3 Weeks 27 3 11 19 4 Last 3 Weeks 16 15 25 15 3

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 14-31 — Road: 7-14 — Last 10: 2-8

The Wolves have lost eight of their last ten games and are likely in for another loss tonight, as they head to Cleveland to take on the Cavaliers. In addition to the potential blowout, this is a bad matchup for fantasy production. The Wolves are only projected to score 94.8 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.

The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the entire NBA. On the season, they are ranked fifth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Wolves are very risky fantasy options tonight. With a 13.5-point spread, they can be faded in all league formats.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 30-12 — Home: 16-3 — Last 10: 7-3

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games and are now 30-12 on the season. They are 0-1 under the tutelage of Tyronn Lue, but he should be able to pick up his first win tonight. The Cavaliers are the largest favorites on the board. While they do have a high team total of 108.3 points, the potential for a blowout looms over this game.

The Wolves have been mediocre at best on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, they are ranked between 13th and 20th in all four of the defensive categories listed above. This is one of those risk/reward matchups. While the Cavaliers should score with ease tonight, we may not be able to project their starters for a full complement of minutes.

Elite Plays

Kevin Love

If it wasn’t for Anthony Davis, Love would probably be the most hated power forward in DFS. He has a bad habit of playing poorly in favorable matchups, particularly when his ownership level is high. I see him as a borderline elite play tonight against his former team. In three games against the Wolves, Love has averaged 18 points, 11 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per contest.

FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $7,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 30.3
FP/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 28.6

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

If the spread was a little bit closer, I would consider James an elite play. However, I hate paying up for superstars when there is a good chance that he could end up sitting the entire fourth quarter. James is coming off of a monster outing against the Bulls and is worth a look. However, dollar for dollar, I prefer Kawhi Leonard against the Warriors.

FD — $9,900 — SF
DK — $9,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.8 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 44.1 | Last Five Games: 40.0

Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

Houston Rockets New Orleans Pelicans
houstonnba Vegas Total 215.0 neworleansnba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 105.3 Team Proj. 109.8
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 98.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Corey Brewer Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Proj. Starter Tyreke Evans Norris Cole Alonzo Gee Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 16 25 10 14 30 Opp. Season 11 23 27 30 16
Last 3 Weeks 7 5 20 1 28 Last 3 Weeks 6 23 23 9 16

Houston Rockets

Record: 24-22 — Road: 9-11 — Last 10: 7-3

The Rockets have won seven of their last ten games and are now two games above .500 on the season. They have had their struggles on the road though and are listed as 4.5-point underdogs tonight against the Pelicans. The Rockets are projected to score 105.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.

The Pelicans have slightly improved on the defensive end of the floor over the last few weeks, but they are ranked 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Donatas Motiejunas has already been ruled out of tonight’s game and it sounds like Dwight Howard will join him on the bench. Howard wasn’t able to do much when he tested his ankle over the weekend. It will be interesting to see if the Rockets go with a bigger lineup tonight to match up against Anthony Davis. If Josh Smith or Terrence Jones draws the start, that player would deserve consideration in all league formats.

Elite Plays

James Harden

With Dwight Howard expected to miss another game, Harden becomes close to a must play again tonight. In the nine games that Howard has missed this season, Harden has averaged 26.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 8.4 assists, and 3.1 blocks/steals. He also has two triple-doubles in his last three games.

FD — $10,000 — SG
DK — $10,100 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 27.4
Min/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 45.4 | Last Five Games: 50.2

Secondary Plays

Trevor Ariza

It will be interesting to see if the Rockets go big tonight against the Pelicans. Either way, Ariza will be in the starting lineup and see all of the minutes that he can handle. He has been in solid form recently, averaging 26.5 fantasy points over his last five games.

FD — $5,100 — SF
DK — $5,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 14.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.3 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 26.5

Corey Brewer

This pick hinges on whether or not Brewer is in the starting lineup. If Terrence Jones or Josh Smith gets the nod, you can avoid Brewer and give a boost to the player that draws the start. However, if Brewer does start at the three again, he offers great value at small forward. In his last two starts, he has scored 18 and 28 fantasy points.

FD — $3,700 — SF
DK — $3,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 16.6
Min/Game — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 24.4
FP/Game — Season: 13.8 | Last Five Games: 21.4

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 16-27 — Home: 11-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pelicans have won five of their last ten games and are now 11-9 on the season. They are still a ways out of playoff contention in the Western Conference, but there is still a glimmer of hope. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets at home. The Pelicans are projected to score 109.8 points, which is the highest team total on the board.

The Rockets have been one of the best teams to target players against this season. They are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Eric Gordon remains out, which means we will see another start from Norris Cole.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

Davis has the chance to right a lot of wrongs tonight. And I mean a lot of wrongs. It seems like every time he finds himself in a favorable matchup, he either gets hurt or underperforms. He doesn’t seem to have that same upside this season, although this is a perfect matchup for a breakout game. The Rockets are ranked dead last against power forwards this season.

FD — $10,300 — PF
DK — $10,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.7 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 43.9 | Last Five Games: 44.7

Secondary Plays

Jrue Holiday

I originally had Tyreke Evans listed here instead Holiday. However, Evans minutes have been down since returning from his injury. Holiday may not see minutes in the 30s, but he has been in terrific form. He has scored at least 33 fantasy points in four of his last five games.

FD — $6,500 — PG
DK — $6,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.9 | Last Five Games: 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 26.2
FP/Game — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 31.1

Norris Cole

This is speculation on my part, but it would make sense for the Rockets to put Patrick Beverley on Tyreke Evans. If that’s the case, Cole will be defended by James Harden, who is basically a turnstile to the basket. Cole has played well in his spot starts this season and he is still priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

FD — $4,300 — PG
DK — $4,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 15.9
Min/Game — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 25.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 19.1

Orlando Magic at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Orlando Magic Memphis Grizzlies
orlandonba Vegas Total 191.5 memphisnba Vegas Total 191.5
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 92.8 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 96.30 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Tobias Harris Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 10 5 20 12 2 Opp. Season 21 6 11 16 10
Last 3 Weeks 19 4 14 11 1 Last 3 Weeks 23 7 4 22 22

Orlando Magic

Record: 20-22 — Road: 8-11 — Last 10: 1-9

The Magic have lost nine of their last ten games and have fallen to 20-22 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Grizzlies on the road. The Magic are only projected to score 92.8 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board. It is also six points lower than their average points per game this season.

The Grizzlies are back to being an elite defense. Their slow pace of play obviously helps, but they have moved up in the defensive efficiency rankings as well. On the season, they are now ranked sixth in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. With nine games on the schedule tonight, I will be avoiding the Magic altogether.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 25-20 — Home: 16-7 — Last 10: 7-3

The Grizzlies have won seven of their last ten games and are now 25-20 on the season. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the struggling Magic at home. The Grizzlies are listed as 6-point favorites with their team total set at 98.8 points. That may not seem high, but it is actually 2.3 points higher than their season average.

The Magic have been stout defensively this season, ranking above the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Their recent play has been uninspiring though, and Vegas isn’t discounting the matchup. Treat this as a slightly favorable spot for the Grizzlies’ offense. If Tony Allen is unable to play, give a boost to Matt Barnes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

Gasol is playing out of his mind right now. Over his last five games, he is averaging 40 fantasy points in 36.8 minutes per contest. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the Magic, who have been mediocre against bigs this season. The only thing holding him back from being an elite play is his elevated price point.

FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 24.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 40.0

Matt Barnes

If Tony Allen is out again tonight, Barnes would become a viable mid-range small forward option. He has played well recently, averaging 24 fantasy points in his last five games. If Allen ends up playing, I’d prefer Trevor Ariza or Omri Casspi at similar price points.

FD — $5,200 — SF
DK — $5,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 12.7
Min/Game — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 24.0

Miami Heat at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM

Miami Heat Chicago Bulls
miaminba Vegas Total 190.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 190.5
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 91.5 Team Proj. 99.0
Team Pace 94.20 Team Pace 98.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Beno Udrih Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Amar’e Stoudemire Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 27 12 24 18 23 Opp. Season 3 2 19 2 8
Last 3 Weeks 29 27 27 24 17 Last 3 Weeks 18 10 19 8 10

Miami Heat

Record: 23-21 — Road: 8-12 — Last 10: 2-8

The Heat have lost eight of their last ten games, but a large part of that has to do with the injury bug. They have been hit hard and have had to play short-handed over the last couple of weeks. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on the Bulls. The Heat are only projected to score 91.5 points, which is the lowest team total on the board.

The Bulls defensive statistics don’t make a ton of sense. They are ranked eight in defensive efficiency and 14th in points allowed per game, yet they have somehow allowed the fifth most fantasy points to their opponents this season. The Heat have a host of injuries, so expect big minutes for the players that do end up being active tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Chris Bosh

With all of the injuries to the Heat, Bosh has seen a small boost in usage recently (although not as big of a boost as we expected). He has been in decent form and he draws a nice matchup tonight against the Bulls. Bosh offers a high floor and a lot of people are going to be off of him with so many options at power forward.

FD — $7,600 — PF
DK — $7,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 22.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.6 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 29.9

Justise Winslow

With every player that gets ruled out from the Heat, Winslow would see a small boost. He has one of the lowest usage rates of any small forward in the NBA, but if we can project him for 35 minutes, we have to at least consider him on FanDuel. He has played at least 36 minutes and has scored at least 20 fantasy points in each of his last two games.

FD — $3,800 — SF
DK — $4,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 9.6 | Last Five Games: 9.2
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 30.5
FP/Game — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 15.1

Chicago Bulls

Record: 25-18 — Home: 16-8 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games, but they have been terrific at home with a 16-8 record. They are listed as 7.5- point favorites tonight against the Heat. Even though Miami will be short-handed, they will still play at an incredibly slow pace. The Bulls are only projected to score 99 points, which is 2.7 points lower than their season average.

The Heat will likely be without their defensive anchor, Hassan Whiteside, tonight. While that does help a bit, this is still a difficult matchup for the Bulls. On the season, Miami is ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Jimmy Butler can be avoided tonight. If you are paying up for a shooting guard, spend a little more and take James Harden.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

Gasol has scored at least 36 fantasy points in four of his last six games. While the Heat have been tough on centers this season, we shouldn’t be scared of the matchup. Hassan Whiteside has already been ruled out, which means he will match up against the likes of Chris Bosh and Amar’e Stoudemire.

FD — $8,600 — PF
DK — $8,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 20.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.5 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 36.6

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious