NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 12th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
NOTE – We have a nice big slate tonight after a big slate last night. That means lots of these teams are on a back to back and several are playing their third game in four nights. There are tons of injuries to monitor, so I’d make certain to be in front of your computer prior to lineup lock. It’s a nice night to use the back-to-back tool here at RotoGrinders, and we could see some guys rested, but hopefully no late scratches!
Indiana at Dallas – 02:00 PM
- Vegas Line – EVEN SPREAD, 204 OVER/UNDER
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Ellis-George-Turner-Mahinmi
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Williams-Matthews-Parsons-Nowitzki-Pachulia
| Indiana | Dallas | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 204 | | Vegas Total | 204 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | Vegas Sprd | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 102.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.16 | Team Pace | 96.50 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | George Hill | Monta Ellis | Paul George | Myles Turner | Ian Mahinmi | Proj Starter | Deron Williams | Wesley Matthews | Chandler Parsons | Dirk Nowitzki | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 9 | 8 | 27 | 19 | Opp. Season | 11 | 14 | 6 | 12 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 22 | 5 | 29 | 28 | Opp. Last 7 | 16 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 26 | |
Indiana
Record: 34-30 — Road: 15-19 — Last 10: 5-5
- Indiana Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.2 (15 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.8
Projected Point Differential: +0.6
This game should be very competitive as it’s a pick em, and features two teams battling for the playoffs so they should be well motivated
- Dallas Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (25 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.14 ( of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Lavoy Allen (Q)
Joseph Young (Q)
While this game should be competitive, it’s not an especially great game to target for fantasy purposes. I don’t mind grabbing a play or two here if the salary fits, but if you’re playing in an All Day Slate it’s definitely not a game I’d load up on. The Mavericks weakness has been on the interior so I’m liking the Pacers’ interior of Turner and Mahinmi, who are both cheap, as the top options.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Myles Turner
He was benched a few games and has seen his minutes fluctuate, but he stepped back into the starting lineup last game and played 37 minutes. While his minute volatility does present some concern for cash games, it has also reduced his price point to a point where he makes for a nice gamble as a value option. As long as he can avoid foul trouble against Dirk, the matchup is premier as Dirk is a very poor defender. If you’re into the narrative street angle he’ll also be returning to his hometown of Dallas.
FD — $4,900— PF
DK — $4,800– PF
Min/Game —Season: 22.6 | Last Five Games: 28
FP/Game — Season: 19.9
Paul George (DK)
George has been a guy I mainly look to only in tournaments as he’s throws in a few too many games below 30 fantasy points for my liking at his high price point. However, he does present quality upside and that price point on DK is very tempting. The Mavs have defended SF well this season but George is a guy who can go off in any matchup so he’s a viable tournament option given his reduced price on DK.
FD — $9,000— SF
DK — $8,000– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 36.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.2
Monta Ellis
If you like narratives then there are a few Pacers to consider tonight as Monta has the revenge factor going while Myles Turner will be returning to his hometown of Dallas. The matchup isn’t great as the Mavs have defended wings well, but Monta is locked into 35 minutes a night and has topped 32 FD points in four of his last six games.
FD — $6,600— SG
DK — $5,900– SG
Min/Game —Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 36.6
FP/Game — Season: 27.4
Ian Mahinmi
The weakness of this Mavericks defense has been on the interior, and they’re playing David Lee increased minutes off the bench, who is a very poor defender. Mahinmi isn’t an overly exciting option typically but he’s hit 6x value in three of his last four games, and is still very affordable.
FD — $5,200— C
DK — $4,700– C
Min/Game —Season: 25.0 | Last Five Games: 26.6
FP/Game — Season: 22.3
Dallas
Record: 33-32 — Home: 19-15 — Last 10: 4-6
- Dallas Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.3 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.8
Projected Point Differential: -0.5
The Mavericks have lost four in a row and are in need of a win so we should see their starters play quality minutes.
- Indiana Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 194.88 ( of 30)
The Pacers aren’t a great team to pick on and no matchup really stands out as Dallas is also a team that tends to spread around production. Zaza Pachulia draws the top matchup but there’s been rumors of him wearing down and his minutes have really been fluctuating lately.
- Injury Watch:
NONE
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Dirk Nowitzki
If I’m rostering a Maverick I’ll look to Dirk. The Mavs are on a losing streak and need to stop the bleeding so this profiles as a game where Dirk should see solid run. They’ve shown a willingness to play him 35 minutes in competitive games recently, and he’s flashed some upside recently with two 40 fantasy point games. In terms of DVP the matchup isn’t great but Dirk will have a ton of experience over the rookie Myles Turner.
FD — $6,900— PF
DK — $6,300– PF
Min/Game —Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 30
Miami at Toronto – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Toronto -6, 199 OVER/UNDER
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Johnson-Deng-Stoudemire
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Powell-Scola-Valanciunas
| Miami | Toronto | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | +6 | Vegas Sprd | -6 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.5 | Team Proj. | 102.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.64 | Team Pace | 95.47 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Joe Johnson | Luol Deng | Amar’e Stoudemire | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Norman Powell | Luis Scola | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 18 | Opp. Season | 2 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 6 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 8 | 24 | Opp. Last 7 | 2 | 18 | 15 | 9 | 23 | |
Miami
Record: 38-27 — Road: 17-15 — Last 10: 7-3
- Miami Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 98.1 (26 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 96.5
Projected Point Differential: -1.5
This should be a quality game between two of the better teams in the Eastern Conference,but from a fantasy perspective it’s unappealing as both of these teams play quality defense.
- Toronto Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +2.6 (7 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.12 (4 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Chris Bosh (O)
The Raptors have been a tough team to target all year long so Miami is a team to approach with caution. I haven’t seen Dwayne Wade listed as questionable for tonight, but he was questionable to play last night and then didn’t play well. This is a back to back as well as the third game in four nights for Miami so based on that I wouldn’t be surprised if he popped as a GTD or rested tonight. In that scenario both Luol Deng and Goran Dragic would get a solid boost.
Elite Plays
Hassan Whiteside
Whiteside is the one Heat player I’m really looking at tonight as he’s been incredible since Chris Bosh went down. He’s coming off the bench but he’s racked up at least 40 FD points in eight of his last ten games, and the center position is the one spot where Toronto has struggled this season.
FD — $8,700— C
DK — $8,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 35
Secondary Plays
Goran Dragic
If Wade plays then I’ll likely just limit my Miami exposure to Whiteside. However, there’s no ignoring how well Dragic has been playing and his price just isn’t moving so I think he’s in play. If Dwyane Wade does sit this one out then Dragic is a guy I’ll look to get into some lineups.
FD — $6,600— PG
DK — $6,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 26.1
Toronto
Record: 43-20 — Home: 25-7 — Last 10: 8-2
- Toronto Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.5
Projected Point Differential: -0.2
Toronto has been great at home this year and check in as solid 6 point favorites over Miami tonight. They’re also one of the few teams who aren’t on a B2B or playing three games in four nights.
- Miami Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.2 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.5 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.0 (5 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 189.24 (5 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Demarre Carroll (O)
While I like the Raptors are rested, I don’t like the matchup with a tough Miami defense. These teams have played three teams and there hasn’t been a ton of fantasy goodness to go around. Miami won the first meeting 96 to 76, while Toronto took the last two meetings 108-94 and 101-81.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
DeMar DeRozan
Given the tough matchup, I’m not going out of my way to target DeRozan or Lowry, but DeRozan is my preferred option of the two. Dwyane Wade will be playing on tired legs (if he plays) and Miami has struggled against SG recently. DeRozan has also excelled in the past two meetings as he’s scored 30 and 33 real life points.
FD — $7,900— SG
DK — $7,500– SG
Min/Game —Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 35
Kyle Lowry
I’m not really looking his way tonight as the matchup is tough and he hasn’t been great against Miami this year. However, he’s a guy you never fully write off as he can stuff a stat sheet and plays a ton of minutes.
FD — $8,700— PG
DK — $8,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 39.0
FP/Game — Season: 39.5
Detroit at Philadelphia – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Detroit -10, 207 Over/Under
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Harris-Drummond
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Smith-Thompson-Covington-Grant-Noel
| Detroit | Philadelphia | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 207 | | Vegas Total | 207 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.5 | Team Proj. | 98.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.46 | Team Pace | 100.12 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Proj Starter | Ish Smith | Hollis Thompson | Robert Covington | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | |
| Opp. Season | 25 | 18 | 27 | 28 | 30 | Opp. Season | 9 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 8 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 16 | 13 | 4 | 29 | Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 23 | 7 | |
Detroit
Record: 33-32 — Road: 14-21 — Last 10: 6-4
- Detroit Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.8
Projected Point Differential: +7.1
The Pistons got blown out in Charlotte last night, but should be able to rebound nicely tonight against the worst team in the NBA. Vegas agrees as they have the Pistons projected at one of the higher team totals on the slate.
- Philadelphia Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 212.24 (28 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Anthony Tolliver (O)
The 76ers have been a team that you can basically target across the board as they are awful in every defensive category. The Pistons starters look to be in a good spot across the board. The worrisome factors here are the 10.5 spread, the fact that Philly could be very short-handed, and that this is the third game in four nights for Detroit. Kentavious-Caldwell Pope and Marcus Morris are worth a peek but with all of the value with the Memphis wings it’s tough to pull the trigger on them.
Elite Plays
Andre Drummond
He’s coming off of a terrible game last night, which may be good for tonight as he only played 23 minutes. The risk of the blowout and third game in four nights is slightly concerning but the upside for Drummond in this matchup is too much to ignore. The 76ers are dead last in DVP against centers on the season and he has dominated them this season in three meetings averaging 18.3 PPG, 17.3 RPG and 2 blocks in 31 MPG.
FD — $8,600— C
DK — $7,900– C
Min/Game —Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 29.4
FP/Game — Season: 40.3
Secondary Plays
Tobias Harris
I’d categorize Harris as an elite cash game option, but a secondary tournament option. He’s found his way in Detroit and is now playing 35 minutes a night. He hasn’t flashed huge upside but he’s living in 5x territory on a nightly basis with at least 27 FD points in nine of his last ten games, including a 33 FD point game against Philly.
FD — $6,000— PF
DK — $6,200– SF
Min/Game —Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 37.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.9
Reggie Jackson
PG is loaded tonight, but Jackson presents a solid mid-range option. He’s played well in two of his last three games and Philly is 25th in DVP against PG and was shredded by Donald Sloan last night. Against Philly this year, Jackson is averaging 21.7 PPG, 3.3 RPG, and 4 APG in 29.3 MPG
FD — $6,700— PG
DK — $6,500– PG
Min/Game —Season: 30.9 | Last Five Games: 30.6
FP/Game — Season: 31.4
Philadelphia
Record: 9-56 — Home: 6-26 — Last 10: 1-9
- Philadelphia Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 96.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 98.3
Projected Point Differential: +1.6
The 76ers are already the worst team in the NBA, but they’ve now lost Jahlil Okafor for the season and had Jerami Grant, Robert Covington and Richaun Holmes all leave last night’s game with an injury. That means their starting lineup is currently up in the air and this is a team you’ll have to monitor throughout the day.
- Detroit Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.5 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: +3.5 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.31 (7 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Jahlil Okafor (O)
Robert Covington (D)
Jerami Grant (D)
Richaun Holmes (Q)
The Pistons are a team that I don’t necessarily avoid, but they also aren’t a team that I go out of my way to target, especially on a ten game slate. The 76ers would be a team that I’d be more than happy to fade in this spot if it wasn’t for all of their injuries. Robert Covington and Grant had a scary collision last night and both are in concussion protocol so both would seem doubtful to play. The 76ers could be incredibly thin in the frontcourt, which would force Nerlens Noel into secure minutes and potentially vault Carl Landry into consideration as a tournament punt option.
I don’t mind Ish Smith but the 76ers have bodies at PG and SG so I’m mainly looking at their frontcourt players here.
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel
I’m concerned about the third game in four nights for a guy with the injury history of Noel, but if all those guys are out then the 76ers should have to play him at least 30 minutes. He’s averaged 33 MPG over his past two games, and he’s a guy who brings an immense fantasy ceiling to the table when his minutes are secure, so he’s a guy I’ll be heavily targeting, depending on how the 76ers injury situation shakes out.
FD — $6,300— PF
DK — $6,200– PF
Min/Game —Season: 28.9 | Last Five Games: 31.0
FP/Game — Season: 27.1
Secondary Plays
Hollis Thompson
I haven’t rostered Thompson all season long but he’s averaged 31 MPG and should see that number go up if Covington is out tonight. He falls behind the Memphis wings in terms of pecking order but he has topped 20 FD points in three of his last four games.
FD — $3,800— SF
DK — $4,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 15.3
Carl Landry
If the 76ers are down Covington, Holmes and Grant then Landry could draw the start and has been a guy who is averaging around a fantasy point per minute. He received 25 minutes and 26 minutes recently and put up productive outings in both games so he’s a guy to monitor depending on the injury situation.
Houston at Charlotte – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Charlotte -5, 214.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Ariza-Motiejunas-Howard
- Charlotte Proj. Starters – Walker-Lee-Batum-Williams-Zeller
| Houston | Charlotte | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 214 | | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 5.0 | Vegas Sprd | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.12 | Team Pace | 97.83 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Donatas Motiejunas | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Kemba Walker | Courtney Lee | Nicolas Batum | Marvin Williams | Cody Zeller | |
| Opp. Season | 13 | 13 | 22 | 22 | 11 | Opp. Season | 14 | 24 | 30 | 30 | 14 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 18 | Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 23 | 16 | 18 | 17 | |
Houston
Record: 33-32 — Road: 16-18 — Last 10: 6-4
- Houston Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 105.8 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.0
Projected Point Differential: -0.8
- Charlotte Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.6 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.76 (18 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
NONE
This game looks like a solid game to target as it checks in with a 215 total, has a spread of only 5 and both teams have been generous in terms of fantasy points allowed. The one thing to monitor here is that this is a B2B for both teams as well the thrid game in four nights for both teams. Outside of an injury, there are really four players that I’m looking at for Houston: Beverley, Harden, Ariza and Howard. I don’t necessarily mind Ariza and Beverley but there are plenty of options at PG and SF today so they aren’t making the cut for me today.
Elite Plays
James Harden
He’s coming off of a tough game last night but that came against one of the better perimeter defenses in the NBA in the Boston Celtics. He still continued to play huge minutes and is averaging 40 MPG over his past five games. Courtney Lee and Nicolas Batum are solid defenders, but at 40 MPG, I’m more than willing to roster him in 95% of his matchups, and Charlotte doesn’t fall into that 5%. In the first meeting he poured in 36 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in 35 minutes.
FD — $11,000— SG
DK — $10,600– SG
Min/Game —Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 40.0
FP/Game — Season: 47.3
Secondary Plays
Dwight Howard
Howard has been playing better, but I’m a little more concerned with the three games in four nights with a guy like him so I’m considering him as secondary option. The matchup isn’t bad, but it’s tough to just not pay the extra money for Drummond today.
FD — $8,100— C
DK — $8,100– C
Min/Game —Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 34.2
Charlotte
Record: 36-28 — Home: 24-9 — Last 10: 8-2
- Charlotte Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 110.0
Projected Point Differential: +7.3
The Hornets continue to roll at home as they easily dispatched the Detroit Pistons last night,and now will face a bad Houston defense. They check in with the second highest team total on the night at 110 points, which is 7.3 points highers than their season average.
- Houston Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (22 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.43 (27 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Spencer Hawes (O)
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (O)
The Rockets have been a team to target across the board defensively so this is a great spot for the Hornets, as evidenced by their high team total. The one downside is that this is the third game in four nights for Charlotte and they are fairly healthy. They’re really dividing up minutes at PF and C so outside of Marvin Williams, it’s tough to target any Charlotte big man.
Elite Plays
Nicolas Batum
Batum is my favorite option on the Hornets tonight as he’s very fairly priced. I think Giannis and Matt Barnes will be the top two owned SF on the slate and then we also have Durant and Kawhi, so Batum could be low owned on FD. He makes for a nice pivot as he is playing tons of minutes and does bring triple double upside to the table against a Houston defense that is dead last in DVP against SF.
FD — $6,900— SF
DK — $7,000– SG
Min/Game —Season: 35.5 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 30.3
Secondary Plays
Kemba Walker
Walker is one guy I’m struggling with today as I went back and forth between elite and secondary. He does draw one of the better Houston defenders in Patrick Beverley, but Beverley hasn’t been the same defender this year and Houston is 14th in DVP against PG, so it’s not a matchup to avoid. I don’t like the fact that he’s basically at his highest price all year and that this is the third game in four nights for a guy who shoots lots of threes. On the flipside, he’s been terrific at home and he’s the primary offensive weapon for a team with a team total of 110 points. I certainly wouldn’t argue with you if you view him as elite but there are tons of options once again at PG today.
FD — $9,100— PG
DK — $8,600– PG
Min/Game —Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 36.9
Marvin Williams
I don’t love his minutes as he’s been topping out at 30 recently, but he’s been a solid cash game option producing 27 FD points in four of his last five games. The upside may not be there given his minutes, but Houston is dead last in DVP against PF so this is definitely a matchup where he can average a fantasy point per minute and reach 5x value.
FD — $5,800— PF
DK — $5,400– PF
Min/Game —Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 28.4
FP/Game — Season: 23.8
New Orleans at Milwaukee – 07:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Milwaukee -6, 210 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Cole-Holiday-Cunningham-Davis-Asik
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Bayless-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Monroe
| New Orleans | Milwaukee | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 210 | | Vegas Total | 210 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 6.0 | Vegas Sprd | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.0 | Team Proj. | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.00 | Team Pace | 96.81 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Norris Cole | Jrue Holiday | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Jerryd Bayless | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | |
| Opp. Season | 7 | 25 | 25 | 21 | 22 | Opp. Season | 15 | 26 | 18 | 16 | 29 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 2 | 30 | Opp. Last 7 | 12 | 14 | 29 | 27 | 22 | |
New Orleans
Record: 24-40 — Road: 7-25 — Last 10: 3-7
- New Orleans Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.7 (10 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 102.3
Projected Point Differential: -0.4
If I’m game stacking one game tonight this would be it as it checks in with a solid total, should remain somewhat close, and it’s very easy to know where the production is going to come from. The one downside for the Pelicans is that this is their third game in four nights, and they played an overtime game last night. However, given their injury situation, the minutes of their starters should remain secure.
- Milwaukee Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.39 (21 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
Eric Gordon (O)
Norris Cole (Q)
Alexis Ajinca (O)
Bryce Jones (O)
The Bucks have fallen off defensively this year, and the Pelicans have been depleted by injuries. That means Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday are going to see all the shots they want. The injury to monitor here is Norris Cole, who has missed the last two games. If he plays then he’ s a guy to potentially look to in tournaments as he has flashed upside, but if he sits then Toney Douglas enters the equation as a great value option.
Elite Plays
Anthony Davis
He disappointed last night and was somewhat saved by overtime, but he’s a guy I’ll go back to in tournaments tonights. He’s averaging 21.4 FGA per game over his past five games and this Milwaukee interior is susceptible.
FD — $10,300— PF
DK — $9,800– PF
Min/Game —Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 38.8
FP/Game — Season: 44.4
Jrue Holiday
I don’t think Anthony Davis is a must in cash games, but I will want exposure to at least one Pelicans guard. If Cole plays then Holiday will start at SG, and if Cole sits then he’ll pick up more PG duties. Either way he’s locked into big minutes and usage. Over his past five games, Ho averaging 21.4 FGA per game, and has taken 50 FGA over his past two games, which has translated to great fantasy production.
FD — $8,200— PG
DK — $8,300– PG
Min/Game —Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 36.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.5
Toney Douglas (if Norris Cole out)
Douglas is dependent on Cole, but if Cole is out then Douglas is an elite value option at PG. He’s played 37 and 42 (OT) minutes with Cole out of the lineup and has far exceeded value in each of those outings.
FD — $3,600— PG
DK — $3,700– PG
Min/Game —Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 25.8
FP/Game — Season: 11.8
Secondary Plays
Norris Cole (if he plays)
Milwaukee
Record: 27-38 — Home: 19-12 — Last 10: 5-5
- Milwaukee Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.3 (23 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 107.8
Projected Point Differential: +8.5
The Bucks are my favorite team to target tonight as they’ll face a tired and depleted Pelicans team. They have a team total of 107 points, which is 8.5 points higher than their season average, and the minutes of most of their starters have been way up recently.
- New Orleans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.5 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (23 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 204.77 (22 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
John Henson (O)
Michael Carter-Williams (O)
O. J. Mayo (O)
The Pelicans have been a team to target all year long and present a top 15 DVP matchup at every position. The Bucks have been hit hard at PG recently as Mayo and Carter-Williams were both lost for the year. That means Jerryd Bayless will see extended minutes, while the Greek Freak will continue to handle the ball a ton. They are also one of the more rested teams as they aren’t on a back to back.
Elite Plays
Giannis Antetokounmpo
His price is on the rise, but I’m willing to pay it, especially given the matchup and the Bucks’ injury situation at PG. He’s a nightly triple double threat and is averaging 38 MPG over his past five. The result has been monster fantasy upside as well as a great floor as he put up 43 FD points in a tough matchup with Miami. He’s my personal favorite SF on this slate.
FD — $9,600— SF
DK — $8,700– SF
Min/Game —Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.5
Khris Middleton
I think you can easily conceivably roster three Milwaukee Bucks tonight. The three at the top of the list are Giannis, Middleton and Parker as they are all playing huge minutes. Middleton has been as good of a cash game option as there is as he’s basically been a lock for 35 fantasy points. The Pelicans are 26th in DVP against SG and he put up 22 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists in the first meeting.
FD — $7,900— SG
DK — $7,400– SG
Min/Game —Season: 36.8 | Last Five Games: 39.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.7
Jabari Parker
Like Middleton and Giannis, Parker’s minutes have really spiked and he’s playing 38 minutes a night right now. The matchup with Anthony Davis isn’t ideal but the Pelicans are just 16th in DVP against PF on the season and 27th over the past week. Meanwhile, Jabari has continued to pour in quality production.
FD — $6,800— PF
DK — $6,300– PF
Min/Game —Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 23
Secondary Plays
Jerryd Bayless
He’s a borderline elite value as he’s going to see big minutes with Mayo and MCW out, but his usage leaves something to be desired. He’s thrown in a few duds recently, but he’s averaging close to 5x value on the season at his current price, and is going to see at least 30 minutes (39 MPG over his past two).
FD — $4,200— PG
DK — $4,500– PG
Min/Game —Season: 28.8 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 19.7
Greg Monroe
In typical Jason Kidd fashion, Monroe drew the start last game but then played LESS minutes than he’s been seeing off the bench. The matchup is great and I do really like his upside for tournaments if he sees 30 minutes. However, his minutes are not secure like the other Bucks players so he’s a tournament only option in my eyes. He put up 22 points, 11 rebounds and 2 assists in 30 minutes against the Pelicans earlier this year so the upside is there, if the minutes are there.
FD — $6,800— C
DK — $6,200– C
Min/Game —Season: 30.2 | Last Five Games: 28.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.8
