NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 11th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Atlanta Hawks | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 220.0 |  | Vegas Total | 220.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 115.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Luke Babbitt | Dewayne Dedmon | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 10 | 30 | 13 | 5 | DvP | 16 | 29 | 14 | 23 | 26 | |
| DRPM | -0.83 | -0.94 | 0.03 | 1.54 | 1.33 | DRPM | -2.53 | -1.09 | 2.66 | 1.27 | 4.86 | |
Atlanta Hawks
Notable Injuries Ersan Ilyasova (Out) Mike Muscala (Questionable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.1 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.4 (12 of 22)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.3 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,500 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 36.4 | -3.8 | 32.3 | -1.3 | 1.13 | 29.8% | 56.4% | 17 | -0.83 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,300 | $5,100 | $11,000 | 27.5 | 2.5 | 29.3 | 0.3 | 0.94 | 20.5% | 48.3% | 10 | -0.94 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 25.9 | -5.1 | 31.0 | -1.6 | 0.83 | 18.1% | 51.9% | 30 | 0.03 |
| Luke Babbitt | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 11.6 | 10.2 | 18.2 | 12.7 | 0.64 | 12.7% | 66.0% | 13 | 1.54 |
| Dewayne Dedmon | $5,600 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 22.7 | 4.4 | 24.9 | 2.0 | 0.91 | 13.9% | 58.9% | 5 | 1.33 |
| John Collins | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 24.3 | 2.3 | 20.2 | 2.5 | 1.20 | 19.7% | 54.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder and Luke Babbit (if Muscala is out)
Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore and Tauren Prince
The Atlanta Hawks are coming off a back to back and are one of the worst teams in the league. I normally would not want to roster many players from this team but with the current injury situation and the pace of this game, there are going to be some plays I like here. Before I get into the plays this is a 220.5 total which is the third highest on the slate. Atlanta’s team total is only 105 but are ranked 9th in pace this season going up against the 7th fastest paced team in the league. This should be an up-tempo game and with Atlanta coming in as 10-point road underdogs I do worry slightly about them getting blown out but with their current injury situation that will not shy me away from these plays.
Dennis Schroder is the first play that I have interest in at $7300 on DraftKings. John Wall is not someone I am always interested in targeting but the amount of usage that Schroder is seeing at his price is just too good to pass up here. For only $7200 Schroder is averaging 37.5 DraftKings points this season!! Schroder is also ranked first in the league this year in touches per game. Schroder has been a bargain all year long and against the Wizards in a game that we expect to be high scoring he is a great way to get exposure to this game. If you fear that he won’t get a ton of run in a blowout don’t stress, Schroder is averaging 32.4 minutes per game this season.
Some other plays that I like getting exposure to here are Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince. The Wizards are ranked dead last allowing 49.28 fantasy points per game to Small Forwards this season. Prince is the starting Small Forward but Bazemore gets some time at small forward as well and I think both are in play for only $5100 and $5300. There are not many plays that have 40-point upside, in a fast-paced game, in this type of matchup and are this cheap.
With Ersan Ilyasova and the status of Mike Muscala still up in the air we can look to some of the bigs for value on this slate. I think going John Collins or Dewayne Dedmon are options you can consider but for me I prefer going Luke Babbit for only $3600. In his last 5 games he is averaging 24.4 DraftKings points and 28.6 minutes a game. On an eight-game slate yesterday I got him at only 3% owned and at this price tag still is a great value play if Ersan Ilyasova and Mike Muscala are still out.
Washington Wizards
Notable Injuries John Wall (questionable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 111.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 115.5 (3 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (6 of 22)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.5 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $10,100 | $9,600 | $17,600 | 44.0 | 4.7 | 35.8 | 2.0 | 1.23 | 28.9% | 51.2% | 16 | -2.53 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,900 | $7,500 | $13,700 | 37.6 | 3.5 | 34.6 | 3.4 | 1.09 | 26.6% | 59.9% | 29 | -1.09 |
| Otto Porter | $7,000 | $6,500 | $13,500 | 36.3 | -9.0 | 33.4 | 0.3 | 1.09 | 16.5% | 68.2% | 14 | 2.66 |
| Markieff Morris | $5,400 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 14.5 | 0.0 | 19.7 | 0.0 | 0.74 | 19.6% | 37.7% | 23 | 1.27 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,200 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 27.4 | -6.5 | 30.8 | -1.1 | 0.89 | 13.7% | 61.8% | 26 | 4.86 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 23.4 | -0.6 | 31.7 | -3.5 | 0.74 | 13.0% | 59.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal and John Wall
Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris
I always love getting exposure to the Wizards when they are in a fast-paced game and a 220 is always a great spot to do so. The Wizards are 10-point favorites with an implied team total of 115.5, the second highest team total on the slate. I would expect the Wizards are only 6-5 on the season but I would expect them to get an easy win here against a struggling Hawks team. The Wizards are ranked 7th in pace this year and get to play in a pace they are used to against the team ranked 9th in pace.
John Wall at home has always been better at home than on the road and that trend has once again continued this year. Wall is averaging 48.3 DraftKings points at home compared to 41.8 on the road this season. Schroder’s defense is not one that I worry about at all and for only $9600 Wall is someone that I will be looking to roster on this slate. If you can’t afford Wall I like paying down $7300 for Bradley Beal. This is an elite matchup for him going against the Hawks who are ranked last at defending the shooting guard position. They are allowing 47.82 fantasy points per game! Beal is another guy who is showing similar home/road splits the season as well. Beal is averaging 42.8 DraftKings points at home and only 33.1 on the road. Lucky for us Beal is home tonight and he is going to be an elite option for me on this slate.
Otto Porter has upside most slates but at his price tag I would prefer to find the money and pay up for Beal instead. Kelly Oubre and Markieff Morris are cheap forward options and if I had to pick one it would be Morris for me. Morris minutes have been down recently, and he is not a $4600 player. This is one of those situations where I am just buying on the low-price tag because I know it will increase and I don’t want to miss out on him. He is an interesting value option for me on this slate. The last guy I want to talk about draws a great matchup and that is Marcin Gortat. He is not the easiest to roster because he has been frustrating this season but hear me out. The Hawks are ranked in the bottom 5 against Center’s this season and we have seen many players dominate Dedmon so far. The one worry that we have with Gortat is the game going too small and him being phased out of games. With the current injury situation for the Hawks I expect Dedmon will play a ton which means they will need Gortat here and I think he is a viable option on this slate.
Los Angeles Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Clippers | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.5 | Implied Team Total | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lou Williams | Austin Rivers | Wesley Johnson | Blake Griffin | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 21 | 27 | 17 | 7 | DvP | 7 | 23 | 19 | 14 | 22 | |
| DRPM | 1.40 | -1.63 | -0.47 | 3.65 | 0.57 | DRPM | -1.49 | -1.78 | 2.64 | 0.41 | 3.57 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
Notable Injuries Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari (out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (17 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -4.0 (21 of 22)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lou Williams | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 22.2 | 0.5 | 23.2 | 3.5 | 0.96 | 26.0% | 57.6% | 4 | 1.40 |
| Austin Rivers | $5,900 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 23.1 | 5.4 | 32.0 | 3.4 | 0.72 | 17.7% | 50.9% | 21 | -1.63 |
| Wesley Johnson | $4,600 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 15.5 | -0.5 | 20.0 | 6.6 | 0.78 | 12.6% | 51.4% | 27 | -0.47 |
| Blake Griffin | $8,500 | $8,600 | $16,100 | 40.9 | 1.1 | 34.3 | 1.7 | 1.19 | 26.2% | 59.9% | 17 | 3.65 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,600 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 32.3 | -0.8 | 31.8 | 0.5 | 1.01 | 11.1% | 60.4% | 7 | 0.57 |
| Sindarius Thornwell | $3,400 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 7.7 | -1.8 | 11.0 | 1.9 | 0.70 | 16.5% | 48.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Lou Williams and Blake Griffin
Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan (DraftKings)
The Clippers are on the second night of a back to back on the road and are shorthanded here today in matchup against the Pelicans. The Clippers have a 103.25 team total but with the injury situation there will be value that makes up for this total. The Pelicans are playing at the 8th fastest pace in the league making this a pace up game for the Clippers who are only ranked 23rd. The Clippers will certainly have their hands full going up against two studs in Demarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis.
Blake Griffin certainly let me down yesterday, but he is in the same situation here seeing a high usage with all the injuries. For $8600 if we liked Griffin yesterday we should like him again today for the same reasons. Yes, he disappointed but he is averaging 42 DraftKings points per game this season and is in a higher usage situation than normal. It is worth noting that DeAndre Jordan is only $6700 today and is going to be needed a ton in this matchup. One thing I like about taking opposing big men against the Pelicans is that I know that their size will be needed all game long. He is not a play that I am in love with but more of a secondary option.
With no true point guard here on the Clippers we can look no further than Lou Williams being the guy you want to load up on in this spot. I normally hate taking jump shooters like Williams on second half of back to backs but, with no other point guard he will likely put up another 22 shots like he did against the Thunder. Williams had 49.75 last night and I don’t expect that again and expect some inflated ownership here in this spot. He should still easily pay off that price tag of $5200 and has a nice floor with upside. I also forgot to mention that the Pelicans are ranked the 6th worst team at defending shooting guards. Williams is an elite option here for me.
I think you can fire darts away on guys like Wesley Johnson and Sindarius Thornwell for cheap, but they are too risky for my liking and won’t make my player pool. I understand the cheap price tags and that they should play some minutes but there is other value I prefer on this slate. One last play to note is Austin Rivers who whenever his dad has a chance to let him get minutes and chuck up shots he can. With all the injuries I expect him to do so here. I also don’t hate the idea of pivoting to Rivers over Williams in tournaments as a leverage play but probably won’t be something that I do here. Also, one last thing to note the Pelicans did draft Rivers and gave up on him pretty early. This could be the spot to stroll down narrative street for a little Austin Rivers revenge.
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries Rajon Rondo ( out)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (6 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (10 of 22)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $7,100 | $6,600 | $13,200 | 30.4 | -4.7 | 36.9 | -0.4 | 0.82 | 19.1% | 47.9% | 7 | -1.49 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 18.8 | -3.1 | 31.4 | -1.0 | 0.60 | 13.7% | 53.1% | 23 | -1.78 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 13.5 | -3.4 | 25.5 | -7.1 | 0.53 | 9.9% | 36.5% | 19 | 2.64 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,600 | $10,700 | $19,100 | 55.2 | 4.9 | 36.8 | 4.2 | 1.50 | 24.9% | 65.5% | 14 | 0.41 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,800 | $10,900 | $19,400 | 59.9 | -5.2 | 38.3 | 1.6 | 1.56 | 29.0% | 59.5% | 22 | 3.57 |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins
Secondary Plays – None
The Pelicans have an implied total of 110 and draw a matchup against a slower paced team. This is not the best matchup for the Pelicans seeing that they are playing against a banged-up team on the second half of a road back to back. I do fear there could be a blow out here, but Vegas disagrees with the Pelicans as only 7-point favorites. I expect the Pelicans to win here and we all know that if they win there will likely be two guys doing all the damage, Demarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis.
It is no secret how incredible both these guys have been to start out the year but let’s put it in perspective for you. Cousins is averaging 61.1 DraftKings points per game and Davis is averaging 54.1! It’s also worth noting that one of Davis games he got hurt and only had 5.25 points. Either way these two guys have been unstoppable and are always options to consider. If you are paying up today I think I like Giannis more than these two, but they are both elite options that I will be looking to get exposure to.
I hate rostering anyone else on the Pelicans not named Davis or Cousins, but Jrue Holiday is worth mentioning here. Not only will he draw easy defenders but he’s averaging 37.2 minutes per game and coming off his best game of the year. 56.75 DraftKings points is more of an outlier to me and I will let others chase him at that $6600 price. I understand the argument for other fringe players on the Pelicans, but this is a massive slate and I am going to pass on anyone not named DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis.
Memphis Grizzlies at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 210.0 |  | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.0 | Implied Team Total | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Mike Conley | Dillon Brooks | James Ennis | Jarell Martin | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | James Harden | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 17 | DvP | 12 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 8 | |
| DRPM | -1.81 | -0.13 | 1.54 | -0.16 | 1.25 | DRPM | -0.50 | N/A | 1.40 | 1.38 | 0.84 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
Notable Injuries Jamychal Green (out)
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 101.5 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (15 of 22)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.1 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Conley | $7,300 | $6,700 | $13,900 | 30.5 | 3.3 | 31.2 | 0.6 | 0.98 | 27.1% | 54.3% | 11 | -1.81 |
| Dillon Brooks | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 19.1 | 0.8 | 29.7 | 1.4 | 0.64 | 12.8% | 50.7% | 16 | -0.13 |
| James Ennis | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 19.6 | 1.2 | 30.5 | 3.7 | 0.64 | 10.4% | 67.7% | 15 | 1.54 |
| Jarell Martin | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 16.1 | -3.5 | 22.0 | -3.4 | 0.73 | 11.2% | 46.5% | 10 | -0.16 |
| Marc Gasol | $7,800 | $7,400 | $13,700 | 38.7 | -4.2 | 34.3 | -0.1 | 1.13 | 23.8% | 56.1% | 17 | 1.25 |
| Tyreke Evans | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 29.3 | 4.1 | 27.1 | 4.8 | 1.08 | 25.3% | 60.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Chalmers | $4,100 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 19.1 | 1.7 | 23.0 | -0.4 | 0.83 | 18.7% | 45.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Marc Gasol
The Grizzles are 6-point road underdogs here with a 102.5 team total against the Houston Rockets. The Grizzles are well known as one of the slowest paced teams in the league, ranked 29th this season. They draw a matchup against the Rockets who are surprisingly only ranked 15th this year. These two opponents have already seen each other twice this season so we have a little bit of a sample of what we should expect here. Memphis won both games, but I expect this game to be a close one with the way the Rockets have been playing.
Mike Conley is typically someone that I like to roster in faster paced games, but he is has struggled in his two games against the Rockets only averaging 22.5 DraftKings points. He only shot .350% in these games and I wish I could like Conley more here, but I am only going to make him a secondary option for me. I don’t expect him to be as lousy as he was in the first two games, but I worry about his upside at this price. Tyreke Evans is priced up at $6300 and typically would be a great spot to play him but I think I will pass on him with this inflated price tag.
Marc Gasol is another option that I really like playing against the Rockets and he is only $7400. One of the issues I am having is that there are other options I would rather play at his position. Gasol will be like Conley someone that is just a secondary play for me. I think the only way I roster Gasol and Conley is if I do a game stack and I would make sure to correlate them together. Originally, I thought I would have more interest in the Grizzles but it is looking less appealing the more that I think about this slate.
Houston Rockets
Notable Injuries Chris Paul (out) and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (questionable)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 110.5 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.5 (19 of 22)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.9 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.9 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $11,800 | $11,400 | $20,600 | 49.9 | 6.9 | 35.6 | -1.9 | 1.40 | 33.8% | 61.8% | 12 | -0.50 |
| Eric Gordon | $6,100 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 31.3 | -0.7 | 33.0 | -2.1 | 0.95 | 26.0% | 59.0% | 4 | N/A |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,700 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 22.7 | 4.6 | 35.0 | -1.3 | 0.65 | 12.1% | 49.5% | 2 | 1.40 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,400 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 21.9 | -1.8 | 31.2 | -1.8 | 0.70 | 14.0% | 61.1% | 12 | 1.38 |
| Clint Capela | $6,800 | $6,300 | $13,800 | 33.4 | -2.1 | 24.2 | 0.0 | 1.38 | 16.5% | 70.6% | 8 | 0.84 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 18.8 | 1.0 | 29.1 | -2.7 | 0.64 | 9.0% | 48.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Clint Capela and Trevor Ariza
The Rockets are ranked 110.5 in points per game this year in a matchup against the Grizzles who have a Defensive efficiency rating in the top 10. The Rockets have lost two games so far to the Grizzles this year and I expect them to play with a little bit of a chip on their shoulder here. This game should be slower than normal for Houston going up against the 29th ranked team in pace this season. I typically like to target Houston players, but this pace has me slightly worried. The Rockets have an implied team total of 108.5 which is ranked 10th on the slate and there are still some viable fantasy options here.
Chris Paul is still out so we should still see plenty of usage for James Harden in this matchup. In Harden’s two games against the Grizzles this year he is averaging 40.1 DraftKings points. In his last two games though that he just played he is averaging 84.5 DraftKings points!! The debate is will people let the matchup take them off Harden today or the recent games boost his ownership?? For me I am going to stay away from Harden here unless I put him in a game stack. This is typically a matchup where Harden does not see his normal fantasy output and I understand he is matchup proof but there are better options to roster at his price. Eric Gordon has seen usage bump with no Chris Paul at 26% and been a real beneficiary to his injury. I think Gordon is a fine play here but there are other shooting guard options that I just think are better plays on this slate.
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was out the other night and if that is the case again we could see some interesting value emerge. He warmed up and almost gave it a go, so I’m assuming he will play. If he doesn’t PJ Tuker, Ryan Anderson and Trevor Ariza all could see some extra minutes. If he does play that could hurt, all of them and likely make them options that I don’t consider. My favorite option on the Rockets side would be Clint Capela here for only $6300. Capela is averaging 30.3 DraftKings points this year and it’s just too cheap for him. It is a tough matchup, so I worry about his upside but in cash games I don’t mind paying that price for Capela. Capela would be a secondary play for me here.
Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks – 8:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 8 | 21 | 1 | 18 | DvP | 18 | 13 | 5 | 16 | 30 | |
| DRPM | 0.01 | -1.34 | -1.35 | 1.66 | -0.91 | DRPM | 0.60 | -0.33 | N/A | -1.06 | 1.06 | |
Sacramento Kings
Notable Injuries Vince Carter (out)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 95.2 (29 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (21 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6 (5 of 22)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.3 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Hill | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 16.1 | -3.4 | 27.1 | -3.5 | 0.59 | 16.0% | 51.7% | 28 | 0.01 |
| Garrett Temple | $3,800 | $3,500 | $7,800 | 16.8 | -1.4 | 24.3 | 1.7 | 0.69 | 14.1% | 57.8% | 8 | -1.34 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 18.9 | -3.9 | 24.2 | -1.8 | 0.78 | 18.0% | 55.5% | 21 | -1.35 |
| Zach Randolph | $5,200 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 23.9 | 4.5 | 24.6 | 1.8 | 0.97 | 23.8% | 50.1% | 1 | 1.66 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 23.2 | -4.7 | 24.9 | -5.1 | 0.93 | 14.7% | 55.4% | 18 | -0.91 |
| De’aaron fox | $5,500 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 24.4 | -4.8 | 26.7 | -0.4 | 0.91 | 25.4% | 46.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox
The second lowest total on the slate at 204.5 and one of the least appealing games on the slate, the Kings get a matchup against the New York Knicks. The Kings have a projected total of 99.75 and battling out for one of the worst records in the league this season. They are also one of the slower paced teams in the league and the Knicks are not much faster ranked at 20th this year. It’s tough to find a whole lot of nice things to say about this team on such a big slate but let’s attempt it now!
Not a ton of injuries on the Kings side of the ball except for Vince Carter who is out. The one bright spot on the Kings this year has been De’Aaron Fox who is still only $5000 on DraftKings and averaging 25.2 fantasy points per game. The Knicks are ranked 28th against opposing point guards and I would expect that Fox has another good outing here. Fox won’t be an elite play for me, but I think he is a secondary option that I like getting exposure to in tournaments.
I fully expect Porzingis to play here because it sounded like the last day he banged something up, they threw it on the injury report and just used it as a rest day for him. This could cause some problems for guys like Zach Randolph and Willie Cauley-Stein. Randolph specifically has been dominating in his last four games averaging 31.4 DraftKings points. He looks appealing at $5200 but against the Knicks who are ranked 2nd in the league against opposing power forwards I will stay away from him here. If Porzingis does get ruled out, then Randolph will come back in play, but I think this is a good spot to stay away from Randolph. It’s a massive slate and I just don’t feel the need to load up on many Kings unless we get injury news here.
New York Knicks
Notable Injuries Kristaps Porzingis (questionable but expect him to play)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (14 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (17 of 22)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (29 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.8 | -3.0 | 25.6 | -1.7 | 0.69 | 16.5% | 38.6% | 18 | 0.60 |
| Courtney Lee | $4,600 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 21.5 | 0.9 | 31.9 | -0.8 | 0.67 | 14.2% | 51.3% | 13 | -0.33 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,300 | $6,400 | $14,300 | 27.9 | 5.3 | 33.9 | 1.6 | 0.82 | 21.8% | 52.3% | 5 | N/A |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,700 | $9,400 | $17,200 | 46.1 | 7.7 | 33.0 | 0.5 | 1.40 | 31.3% | 60.7% | 16 | -1.06 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,600 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 28.2 | -3.4 | 25.0 | 0.3 | 1.13 | 17.6% | 65.8% | 30 | 1.06 |
| Kyle o’quinn | $4,400 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 21.0 | 1.4 | 16.9 | 1.3 | 1.24 | 16.4% | 62.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,500 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 17.4 | 7.0 | 19.9 | 4.2 | 0.87 | 16.5% | 39.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis and Frank Ntilikina
The Knicks have won 6 of their last 8 games and one of those was only because Porzingis did not play against the Magic. The Knicks are 6-point home favorites with an implied team total of 105.25. This is one of the slower paced teams in the league and all around this is not an exciting fantasy game. The Knicks are ranked 20th in pace and the Kings are ranked 27th. Not only that this is the second game lowest total on the board. A big injury to note here before we get started is that Kristaps Porzingis went through full practice on Friday and I expect him to play in this matchup.
I am doing this writeup assuming that Porzingis plays if he doesn’t than there will be clear value here, but he is a guy that is always worth looking at. Porzingis currently leads the league in usage this season and is averaging 46.3 DraftKings points per game. The Kings are also ranked third worst in rebounding this year but have given up the most fantasy points to opposing centers. I know the Porzingis doesn’t play Center all game, but I fully expect him to have his way in this matchup. This is one of the most expensive price tags we have seen on Kristaps all year long and it isn’t the greatest game environment, but the matchup feels tough to pass on. If I am running multiple lineups today I think getting exposure to him is a good idea but there are other centers for cheaper that I may prefer. I like Porzingis but going to make him just a secondary option for me on this slate.
With Porzingis out last game the Knicks ran a 12-man rotation? Yes, Hornacek strikes again messing around with minutes even giving Willy Hernangomez 8 minutes off the bench. I wish I could endorse some of these other options but it’s a big slate, this is not a game that we want a ton of exposure to and the coach is unpredictable at times. Not only that some of the more appealing options are starting to get too priced up. I think this is a good spot to keep it simple and just play Porzingis or move on. If you forced me to play one other option I would look at Jarret Jack or Frank Ntilikina for less than $4000 but again their minutes are so spread, it is tough to figure out who will get most of the run.
Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:30 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Milwaukee Bucks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | Pace Projection +/- | 4.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Kyle Kuzma | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 21 | DvP | 26 | 24 | 4 | 25 | 2 | |
| DRPM | -0.53 | -0.79 | 0.54 | 1.49 | 2.02 | DRPM | N/A | -1.01 | -2.88 | N/A | 0.37 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
Notable Injuries Larry Nance (out)
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (16 of 22)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,000 | $6,500 | $13,400 | 30.2 | 0.4 | 33.5 | 0.6 | 0.90 | 19.1% | 35.9% | 21 | -0.53 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $4,900 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 23.8 | 1.5 | 32.7 | 1.8 | 0.73 | 14.7% | 53.3% | 3 | -0.79 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,000 | $6,000 | $12,300 | 28.4 | 5.2 | 33.2 | 3.6 | 0.86 | 18.8% | 52.3% | 9 | 0.54 |
| Kyle Kuzma | $5,800 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 24.9 | 2.9 | 29.6 | 7.4 | 0.84 | 16.7% | 64.0% | 15 | 1.49 |
| Brook Lopez | $6,400 | $5,800 | $11,300 | 28.5 | 8.0 | 24.8 | 1.6 | 1.15 | 23.1% | 57.2% | 21 | 2.02 |
| Jordan Clarkson | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 23.3 | 8.2 | 21.1 | 3.2 | 1.10 | 26.7% | 59.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Julius randle | $5,000 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 23.8 | 4.7 | 18.8 | -0.6 | 1.27 | 19.9% | 63.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays –
Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball and Julius Randle
The Lakers come into this game as 6-point road underdogs. The Lakers will be in a slower paced matchup going up against the 22nd ranked team in the league in pace. There is downside to that, but the Bucks are surprisingly the second worst team in the league in defensive efficiency this season! This is also a 214 total and a game we should be targeting on this slate.
Lonzo Ball feels like he has triple double upside almost every night if he can just make some shots! Ball is shooting an abysmal .292% this season and still averaging 30.7 DraftKings points per game. His $6500 price tag is appealing because of the upside that he can have. The Bucks are also surprisingly ranked in the bottom 10 at defending point guards this year. The addition of Eric Bledsoe won’t help on the defensive end. It is worth noting the last time Ball played against Bledsoe, Ball posted a stat line of 29 points, 11 rebounds and 9 assists! That was Ball’s best outing of the year and I don’t expect those numbers again but, I do think Ball has tournament upside here in this spot.
The injury to Larry Nance has provided us some value over the last week or so in options like Kyle Kuzma, Julius Randle and Brooke Lopez. In this matchup I think Kuzma is a bit priced up for my liking, but I don’t mind throwing a dart at Julius Randle, Jordan Clarkson and Brooke Lopez in a tournament. Brandon Ingram, I expect to struggle here and likely an option that I fade here at this price tag. I don’t mind paying this price when the matchup is great, but the Bucks are ranked third best at defending small forwards this season.
Milwaukee Bucks
Notable Injuries Mirza Teletovic (out)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (8 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (6 of 22)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.3 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $6,500 | $6,400 | $14,300 | 25.7 | 27.6 | 0.93 | 27.2% | 50.9% | 26 | N/A | ||
| Tony Snell | $4,100 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 33.6 | 5.1 | 0.54 | 9.1% | 75.5% | 24 | -1.01 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $7,500 | $12,900 | 36.2 | 12.2 | 36.8 | 3.3 | 0.98 | 23.9% | 51.3% | 4 | -2.88 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $12,200 | $11,200 | $21,200 | 56.5 | -5.5 | 37.2 | -0.5 | 1.52 | 29.8% | 65.7% | 25 | N/A |
| John Henson | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,700 | 18.8 | 4.4 | 20.2 | 4.4 | 0.93 | 9.9% | 54.8% | 2 | 0.37 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $6,300 | $5,800 | $12,900 | 28.0 | 5.2 | 33.6 | 2.8 | 0.83 | 19.0% | 62.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – John Henson
It’s rare we get to see the Bucks in a 214 total so when we do there is value that we can take advantage of. The Bucks have a team total of 110 and play against a Lakers team that is the playing at the third fastest pace in the league. The Bucks are playing on the second half of a back to back, but I am not too worried here seeing that Vegas has them as 6-point favorites. It is worth noting that the Bucks recently traded for Eric Bledsoe, so their team is going to look a little different than they have all year. I normally like to take the wait and see approach, but this is too good of a game environment for me to go that route.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. I talked about yesterday how no one on the Spurs could slow him down and surprise they didn’t!! I don’t see anyone that will be able to stop Giannis on the Lakers. The Lakers are ranked 24th in the league against power forwards and Giannis is averaging 57.1 DraftKings points per game. $11200 feels expensive but we have enough value on this slate and I love paying up for him in this fast-paced game. Khris Middleton is another option that we can look at here but for $7500 feels a bit too priced up for my liking
Eric Bledsoe and Malcom Brogdon are options that I wish I could consider. If I had to take one it would be Brogdon for the second team usage and cheaper price tag. Instead of guessing I will likely wait and see how this whole situation plays out. The Bledsoe trade did impact the front-court because the Bucks traded away Monroe leaving all the Center minutes for John Henson to soak up. Henson is still too cheap on DraftKings at $4500. In his last five games he is averaging 22.9 DraftKings points and is a value play that I have interest in. Henson is a good way to get cheap exposure to this game if you can’t pay up for Giannis.