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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 9th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-10 20:57:36

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks – 12:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors New York Knicks
torontonba Vegas Total 203 newyorknba Vegas Total 203
Vegas Spread -9.5 Vegas Spread 9.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 97
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Ron Baker Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Willy Hernangomez Marshall Plumlee
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 17 18 18 15 28 Adj. DvP 11 3 3 5 9
DRPM 0.12 -1.21 -1.50 0.78 1.05 DRPM 0.57 -1.99 1.15 0.69 0.27

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are competing with the Wizards for the third seed in the east; they’re currently up a game after the Wizards’ loss to the Heat last night. Kyle Lowry returned from a long absence in time for their playoff run and he’s already playing heavy minutes; he’s had at least 36 in both games since he rejoined the lineup. After a terrific 27-point, 10-assist double-double to kick things off, he struggled on 35.7% shooting to 12 points against the Heat in the follow-up. Miami has a tough defense; they have the fifth-best defensive rating in the league and they play at the tenth-slowest pace. Lowry is a solid peripherals guy – 43.7% of his FD fantasy production comes from these statistics – which gives him a nice floor, but his big games come when he scores and racks up assists by way of his teammates making their shots. His upcoming opponent will surely help him in both categories. The Knicks have the sixth-worst defensive rating and over the past six games, they’re in the bottom ten in opponent EFG% (52.2%). This sets up a great spot for him to head towards his ceiling.

Whenever we talk more scoring, we have to talk DeMar DeRozan. The only person that takes more shots than him is Russell Westbrook. However, he takes 1.65 fewer shots and scores 2.93 fewer points per 36 minutes when Lowry is on the court. His usage drops 2.8% and his fantasy production drops 3.3 FD points per 36 minutes. Despite the drop, his usage remains elite, 33.5% is good for seventh league-wide. Plus, in the two games Lowry has been back, DeRozan’s usage actually rose to 42.5%. The scoring does matter, though, considering 68.4% of his FD production comes from points. Fortunately, his salary has fallen, but it’s still tough with both guys sharing the floor.

Outside of the two main guys, we have to take a look at Jonas Valanciunas, Serge Ibaka, and Cory Joseph. Valanciunas has been playing some excellent basketball over the past eight games. Both his field goal percentage and rebounding have been up and his minutes are starting to rise towards 30. His rebounding is sporadic, so we need to pick the right spots. During the last 15 games, the Knicks have been the seventh-worst rebounding team. If Porzingis is out, that trend is more likely to continue. Ibaka’s usage has taken a hit with Lowry back, it’s dropped 7.8% and he’s only taken nine shots in each of the past two games. Although it’s a small sample, keep in mind, it’s the only one we have with Lowry and Ibaka together since the latter joined the club after the former’s injury. Joseph has actually done well the past two games, despite losing some minutes and moving to the bench. Most likely, this is due to due to his time without DeRozan. His price hasn’t dropped, though. There isn’t much reason to look deeper into the roster here, the Raptors will maintain a tight rotation as long as they’re competing for seeding.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,500 1.05 37.7 1.2 39.6 -0.4 27.1% -0.7% 17 0.12
DeMar DeRozan $8,900 1.12 35.5 0.8 39.8 -0.3 34.3% 1.4% 18 -1.21
DeMarre Carroll $3,500 0.66 26.3 -4.9 17.3 -4.5 15.4% 1.8% 18 -1.50
Serge Ibaka $5,300 0.89 30.7 -0.6 27.5 -0.1 20.3% -1.2% 15 0.78
Jonas Valanciunas $5,500 0.99 26.0 2.1 25.8 4.2 18.6% -1.7% 28 1.05

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas, Cory Joseph

New York Knicks

UPDATE: Kristaps Porzingis and Carmelo Anthony have been ruled OUT for today.

Kristaps Porzingis may be shut down for the season, he’s missed the past three games, but he’s listed as questionable as of this writing. Carmelo Anthony rested on the second night of a back-to-back, he’s more likely to play today. If these two play, it would probably be in a somewhat limited fashion. New York has no reason to push these guys.

Either way we can expect Ron Baker, Courtney Lee, and Willy Hernangomez to start. Only Baker got over 30 minutes against Memphis, when both Melo and Porzingis were out, but every starter, including Justin Holiday and Maurice NDour received at least 27 minutes. It’s hard to say for sure that NDour and Holiday would start again in a similar situation, but it seems like there’s a good chance (of course, they could pop Marshall Plumlee in there). Over the past three games without Anthony on the floor, Courtney Lee has stepped up: he’s leveraged a 28% usage rate into 1.1 FD ppm and 1.14 DK ppm. Toronto ranks third in DvP against shooting guards, but DeMar DeRozan has a poor DRPM of -1.99, the fourth-lowest among shooting guards on the slate. Hernangomez and O’Quinn are both hovering around a point per minute on both sites. Even with Porzingis out, O’Quinn has been held to 20 minutes or less on the floor. Hernangomez has pushed 30 over the past two. Holiday doesn’t have a big upside in fantasy, if Melo is out and he starts, his low salary warrants consideration, but otherwise, he’ll have a super low floor. Ron Baker will face Kyle Lowry’s defense, that’s not a favorable situation. NDour has produced over 30 fantasy points in both games he’s played over 28 minutes. He’s an exciting tournament option if he gets another start.

It would almost be a bummer if Carmelo plays, he’s not going to be a strong target and he’ll take away from the value guys. The below plays are with him and Porzingis out, we’ll try to update if they’re ultimately ruled in.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Ron Baker $3,600 0.61 15.8 16.5 9.7 8.6 16.3% -3.6% 11 0.57
Courtney Lee $4,800 0.63 32.1 -0.6 20.2 7.6 14.9% 5.9% 3 -1.99
Carmelo Anthony $6,800 1.00 34.5 -0.3 34.6 -0.6 28.9% 4.6% 3 1.15
Willy Hernangomez $5,100 1.03 18.2 7.7 18.7 5.7 20.4% 0.5% 5 0.69
Marshall Plumlee $3,500 0.66 7.4 5.1 4.9 5.4 11.9% 0.1% 9 0.27
Justin Holiday $3,700 0.72 19.7 7.2 14.1 5.4 17.0% 1.7% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Courtney Lee, Willy Hernangomez, Maurice N’Dour (if starting)

Secondary Plays – Justin Holiday, Kyle O’Quinn (if he somehow gets a start)

Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks – 3:30 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Atlanta Hawks
clevelandnba Vegas Total 212.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread -2 Vegas Spread 2
Team Total 107.25 Team Total 105.25
Pace +/- 1.1 Pace +/- -0.4
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Channing Frye Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 25 28 8 7 Adj. DvP 23 29 26 9 16
DRPM -2.60 -1.18 1.90 3.25 3.18 DRPM -2.18 -0.99 1.20 2.02 -0.40

Cleveland Cavaliers

After a statement win in Boston to take the lead in the eastern conference standings, the Cavaliers lost to a Hawks team that rested their best players. They want that number one seed, so we should expect an angry LeBron tonight, and Angry LeBron is just as good as Angry Brady. That said, his matchup with a rookie isn’t as great as it sounds. In fact, Taurean Prince has a DRPM of 2.66, which is the third-best mark among 81 qualifying small forwards. Yes, that’s better than LeBron James himself (1.57).

On the bright side (from a fantasy perspective at least), Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson may sit this one out. James has been crushing it over the past four weeks without those two on the floor. His usage rises 4.3% to 37.3% and he produces an extra 0.34 FD ppm and 0.35 DK ppm to bring his totals to 1.67 and 1.76, respectively. That’s a per-36 rate of 60.18 FD points and 63.46 DK points and he’ll push past that if the game stays close. He will take this over if Kyrie doesn’t play. Kevin Love has only played 30 minutes without that pair over that time span, and over the course of the year, he’s only played 132 .7 minutes in that situation. He killed it though. 28.8% usage and a per-36 rate of 56.65 FD points and 59.07 DK points. Hit the lock button in LineupBuilder on these two if Irving and Thompson are out.

Channing Frye has provided us great value in his past two starts in place of Thompson despite being limited 25 minutes or less. He’ll have a tougher time in this rematch with Millsap and Howard both expected to play. J.R. Smith did a very J.R. Smith thing by following up a string of five great performances by going 1-for-6 from three while taking zero shots inside the arc. He doesn’t seem worth the risk.

If Irving starts, he could be limited as he’s dealing with knee soreness. Cleveland has to balance their desire for pushing for the top seed with having a healthy starting point guard for the actual playoffs. He’s too much on FanDuel, but he’s cheap enough on DraftKings to be worth a tournament look.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,500 $7,700 1.09 34.9 -0.3 37.9 -0.5 32.0% -5.4% 24 -2.60
J.R. Smith $3,900 $4,300 0.56 28.7 4.1 16.1 7.0 14.3% -1.3% 25 -1.18
LeBron James $10,900 $10,600 1.30 37.6 2.1 49.1 7.9 32.9% 0.0% 28 1.90
Kevin Love $7,600 $7,800 1.15 31.1 1.4 35.7 2.3 25.3% -0.9% 8 3.25
Channing Frye $3,700 $4,600 0.83 18.8 -1.2 15.7 2.8 18.3% -0.1% 7 3.18

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (if Kyrie sits)

Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (if Kyrie plays), Kyrie Irving (DK), Channing Frye (if Thompson out)

Atlanta Hawks

Atlanta rested a ton of guys in their last game but they’re bringing them all back for this one. They’ve clinched a playoff berth so they’re just playing for seeding at this point. Still, they’re only one game up on eighth place, so they’ll want to win this one.

No word yet (as of this writing) on whether Millsap will start or not. His return is bad for Dwight Howard, not from a per-minute fantasy production perspective, but because he takes minutes from him. Since Millsap’s return, he’s averaged 23 minutes per game. We should see him more today given the circumstance, but it’s definitely not a guarantee. Millsap takes away Ersan Ilyasova’s value as well. Schroder doesn’t take a noticeable hit. Surprisingly, everyone stays pretty steady in terms of usage with or without Millsap on the court.

Perhaps the most interesting note about the projected starting lineup is that they’ve only played 9.6 minutes together all year. That’s because Taurean Prince joined the starting five when Thabo Sefolosha was injured, which happened after Millsap was already out. What we do know is Millsap was awesome in 30 minutes in his last game, against Boston. He scored 26 and added 12 rebounds. Kevin Love is a good defender, but Channing Frye is not, so the battle down low won’t be as bad as it seems in DvP rankings if Thompson sits. If they lift the minutes restriction off him, he’s a great play, particularly on DraftKings. He and Schroder are both solid targets as Schroder will have a very favorable spot whether Kyrie starts or not and he should log plenty of minutes. As should Taurean Prince. He only got 25 minutes against them last game, but they did some weird things with their rotations. It was probably a planned limitation with everyone else resting. He should get back up in the mid-30s here. James’ defense is a concern, of course, but his price is low enough to consider him for tournaments. As an added bonus, he will have suppressed ownership after burning everyone that used him last game. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been shooting the ball well the past couple of games, but he could start losing minutes to Kent Bazemore. Bazemore? More like Bazeless. #Analysis.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,200 $7,600 0.95 31.6 5.6 30.2 1.7 30.4% -1.8% 23 -2.18
Tim Hardaway $5,800 $5,800 0.79 27.2 7.9 21.6 6.8 22.6% -1.0% 29 -0.99
Taurean Prince $4,400 $4,800 0.71 16.2 16.4 11.5 8.6 17.2% 1.0% 26 1.20
Paul Millsap $7,500 $7,100 1.03 34.1 -6.5 35.1 -0.5 24.8% 7.2% 9 2.02
Dwight Howard $7,200 $7,000 1.10 29.9 0.2 33.0 -1.8 18.4% 2.6% 16 -0.40
Ersan Ilyasova $5,000 $5,100 0.89 26.4 1.4 23.4 -2.9 21.5% -2.9% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap (if starting without minutes restriction), Dennis Schroder

Secondary Plays – Taurean Prince (GPP), Tim Hardaway Jr., Dwight Howard (GPP, if Thompson out)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets – 5:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Denver Nuggets
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 227.5 denvernba Vegas Total 227.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 111.5 Team Total 116.0
Pace +/- 1.6 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Doug McDermott Taj Gibson Steven Adams Proj. Starter Jamal Murray Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 28 30 20 10 17 Adj. DvP 5 19 14 12 11
DRPM -1.95 -2.34 0.33 -1.48 1.94 DRPM -0.41 1.09 -3.34 1.89 1.29

Oklahoma City Thunder

We finally made it. We made it to the game that will make history as Russell Westbrook records his 42nd triple-double of the season, breaking Oscar Robertson’s record. Could he have asked for a better matchup to do it? Oh yeah, the Suns are pretty bad too. It was kind of weird watching that one; Westbrook kept passing to get the assists and Phoenix was specifically defending his assists not his shots. They cared more about not being the team to let this happen than anything else. Denver will be more concerned with winning. Although they’re all but eliminated, they have a chance. A 1% chance, according to ESPN’s 538. We cane expect them to go for it and not worry about a triple-double. Therefore, this is the game Westbrook will do it. How about that for a bold prediction? The guy averaging a triple-double will triple-double. #Analysis.

He’s a lot of money, he’s essentially at $14k on DraftKings, but the Thunder are locked in to the sixth seed and this is the only thing he’s playing for today. It helps that Denver is just horrendous at defending guards. That means Oladipo is in play as a sneaky pivot for game theory folks. If Andre Roberson plays, he could be limited, but he’s been doing well recently, topping 23.7 FD points in four straight games prior to his injury. Doug McDermott would start in his place again, but he’s not a great choice. He needed 41 points to make it to 19 FanDuel points against Phoenix. As you can see above, Denver is a great rebounding team, which is bad for the bigs: Steven Adams, Taj Gibson, and Ernes Kanter. Adams and Kanter are cheap enough on DraftKings to consider them for tournaments, but Adams doesn’t score enough and Kanter’s minutes are down. It’s not their night. Westbrook ‘til I die.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $13,500 $13,900 $24,900 1.69 34.8 0.0 58.8 -0.9 45.8% -0.6% 28 -1.95
Victor Oladipo $5,800 $5,800 $11,500 0.80 33.3 -1.7 26.6 -3.3 21.3% 0.0% 30 -2.34
Doug McDermott $3,500 $3,300 $6,400 0.60 22.8 0.3 13.6 -2.4 15.9% -4.0% 20 0.33
Taj Gibson $4,000 $3,900 $7,700 0.83 25.6 -6.8 21.3 -3.8 18.4% 1.3% 10 -1.48
Steven Adams $4,700 $4,200 $8,400 0.82 30.1 -0.1 24.7 -4.8 16.1% -1.2% 17 1.94

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson (GPP, if starting)

Denver Nuggets

As mentioned above, Denver wants to win this game, which is a good thing. They have a trio of guards banged up: Jameer Nelson, Emmanuel Mudiay, and Will Barton. Nelson has been ruled out already so Jamal Murray will get another start. The other two are questionable. If they’re ruled it out it means extra minutes for Murray and Gary Harris. It also means they’ll have a super tight rotation and everyone will get plenty of minutes.

There are four guys to look at here: Murray, Harris, Nikola Jokic, and Danilo Gallinari, all of whom have been in great form. Murray is the least consistent, but he’s too cheap on FanDuel for this situation. The DvP isn’t great, but he displayed his upside when he dropped 30 points on the Pelicans Friday and the Nuggets have an implied total 4.5 points above their average. Murray’s per-minute production has risen 0.08 FD ppm and 0.11 DK ppm to 0.87 and 0.95, respectively. Gallinari could end up with a phenomenal matchup against Doug McDermott. Although he’s up and down, he’s topped 41 DK points in three of his past eight games as his minutes trended upward and Wilson Chandler’s trended down. Both are great tournament option. The other two are viable in all formats. Jokic can do it all, he’s a triple-double threat each night, the team’s lead is usage, and he’s in a must-win game. Harris has been extremely consistent with his extra workload, he’s topped 30 DK points in 11 of his past 16 games. This game has the highest total of the night at 227.5, there will be plenty of scoring to go around.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jamal Murray $4,300 $5,100 $10,100 0.77 20.9 9.8 16.1 10.2 22.3% -2.1% 5 -0.41
Gary Harris $6,200 $6,100 $12,000 0.78 31.1 6.1 24.4 6.6 19.2% -1.7% 19 1.09
Danilo Gallinari $6,700 $6,400 $12,600 0.81 33.8 3.0 27.5 3.9 19.9% 0.3% 14 -3.34
Kenneth Faried $4,700 $4,600 $9,100 1.03 21.2 -2.2 21.9 -2.6 18.1% 2.0% 12 1.89
Nikola Jokic $10,100 $9,500 $17,600 1.31 27.8 5.9 36.4 11.5 25.5% 0.4% 11 1.29
Emmanuel Mudiay $3,800 $4,300 $8,400 0.79 25.6 -2.1 20.3 3.9 24.4% 0.1% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Danilo Gallinari (GPP)

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns – 6:00 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Phoenix Suns
dallasnba Vegas Total 213.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread 1.0 Vegas Spread -1.0
Team Total 106.3 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- 4.1 Pace +/- -4.8
Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Nerlens Noel Proj. Starter Tyler Ulis Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 26 28 12 25 27 Adj. DvP 2 7 4 13 5
DRPM -1.28 -2.58 -2.50 -1.68 1.55 DRPM -1.21 0.42 -0.21 1.12 2.11

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have listed Barnes, Barea, and Curry as out for Sunday’s game with the Suns. It’s hard to imagine Dirk Nowitzki and Wesley Matthews play a full complement of minutes even though they’re expected to start. Nerlens Noel hasn’t been getting minutes as it is, due to knee soreness, so we shouldn’t expect it to start here.

That means we can find some value here. Yogi Ferrell and Nicolas Brussino are the most attractive targets as we can expect the Mavericks to use this opportunity to develop/evaluate these guys. A.J. Hammons should also get an extended look. Fortunately for all of them, they get to play one of the worst defenses in the NBA. The Suns have poor DvP rankings and DRPMs across the board and they allow the third-most fantasy points per game. As of this writing, the Mavericks have an implied total 8.3 points above their average due to the fast pace of the Suns. Ferrell has been consistent whereas the other two have been up and down in the few games they’ve received extended minutes. We should expect Brussino to take a lot of shots, especially when he’s on without Dirk and Matthews. In the one game he played over 30 minutes those two were out and he hit 28.2 FD points and 32.25 DK points – he also took the most shots on the team (12). Hammons has shown an aptitude for blocking weak $^!*. IN all four games he’s played for more than ten minutes, he’s tallied a block; he had at least two of them in three of those games. In both games he’s played more than 20 minutes, he’s nabbed seven boards. He’s still developing his shot, though. In three of the four games over 10 minutes he’s missed every field goal he took. That said, we can expect better today.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $4,700 $4,800 $9,500 0.74 25.6 0.0 18.9 0.9 21.7% 0.7% 26 -1.28
Wesley Matthews $4,600 $5,000 $9,800 0.68 34.4 -3.9 23.5 -1.7 19.6% -3.4% 28 -2.58
Harrison Barnes $5,200 $5,800 $11,500 0.79 35.5 -4.0 28.2 -9.1 24.0% -4.8% 12 -2.50
Dirk Nowitzki $5,900 $5,600 $11,200 0.98 26.5 -1.4 26.1 -3.8 24.0% -1.1% 25 -1.68
Nerlens Noel $5,700 $4,700 $9,200 1.01 20.8 -0.8 21.0 -0.8 17.4% -2.2% 27 1.55

Elite Plays – Yogi Ferrell (cash), Nicolas Brussino (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Yogi Ferrell (GPP), A.J. Hammons (GPP)

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are very happy Russell Westbrook didn’t post his 42nd triple-double on them. They absolutely do not care that they won the game. They aren’t playing for anything but stats at this point, but that’s pretty cool for fantasy purposes. Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis routinely push for 40 minutes every night. Booker may be $8k but he’s topped 45 DK points in four of his last five. The Dallas DvP rankings are misleading. They aren’t a good basketball team, those numbers are aided by their slow pace, but Phoenix will force a pace-up game. On top of that, Dallas is resting a bunch of players and likely limiting their other starters. The Suns will be playing guys that have been in and out of the D-League this season, so fire Booker up. All the kid does is shoot, which is good for me and you. Ulis loves picking up assists to Booker and he can score a decent amount of points as well. Given the sheer number of minutes he’s playing and the matchup, he’s in great shape, but he seems to be all or nothing, which makes him better for tournaments. T.J. Warren was excellent last game, shooting 10-of-15 from the field and picking up 16 rebounds. He’s scored over 40 fantasy points in three of his last six. He should get plenty of time on the court as well.

The Suns also have their value guys that play inconsistent minutes. Marquese Chriss, Alex Len, and Alan Williams have all demonstrated upside, and they could all do really well if they get the time here. Williams has received 25+ minutes the past two nights, but that could disappear. He’s a double-double machine when he has the chance. Chriss gets the most consistent minutes of the trio.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Tyler Ulis $6,200 $6,800 $12,700 0.81 17.9 21.9 14.5 18.9 23.0% -2.1% 2 -1.21
Devin Booker $8,100 $8,000 $14,700 0.86 35.2 4.5 30.3 13.4 28.6% 5.2% 7 0.42
T.J. Warren $6,400 $6,700 $12,600 0.79 31.0 3.5 24.6 6.0 18.6% 0.4% 4 -0.21
Marquese Chriss $5,400 $5,400 $10,600 0.81 21.1 6.0 17.2 8.7 18.7% -0.4% 13 1.12
Alex Len $4,700 $4,200 $8,300 0.94 20.2 -1.2 19.0 2.3 17.0% 3.0% 5 2.11
Alan Williams $5,300 $4,600 $9,100 1.15 14.8 4.0 17.1 3.2 20.2% -0.7% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Devin Booker, Tyler Ulis (GPP), T.J. Warren

Secondary Plays – Marquese Chriss, Alan Williams

Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings – 6:00 PM ET

Houston Rockets Sacramento Kings
houstonnba Vegas Total 224.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 224.5
Vegas Spread -9.5 Vegas Spread 9.5
Team Total 117.0 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- 3.6
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela Proj. Starter Darren Collison Buddy Hield Arron Afflalo Skal Labissiere Willie Cauley-Stein
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 21 20 24 29 24 Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 25
DRPM -1.91 -2.53 -2.83 0.20 1.00 DRPM 1.93 -1.73 1.55 -0.19 1.22

Houston Rockets

UPDATE: Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon have been ruled OUT for today.

The Rockets are locked into the third seed in the west, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see guys start playing limited minutes for their final three regular season games. Coach Mike D’Antoni says he intends to play Harden for all three, but there isn’t a good reason to give him his normal time on the court. The Sacramento Kings are a very favorable matchup, so Harden could still perform well enough inside restrictions to be a target on a short slate like this, it’s just really risky to pay his salary here.

Nene is out, which means there will be an increased workload for Montrezl Harrell – he played 27 minutes after Nene got hurt last game as Clint Capela was out – but there’s no real upside there. Clint Capela could see a slight bump in time as well. Capela has been very consistent, he’s returned at least 26.75 DK points in 16 of his last 20 games despite being stuck in the mid-20s minute-wise. He may be the only guy worth playing given the circumstances. Ryan Anderson returned from a six-game absence and played 13 minutes. Although he played well and put up 16.25 DK points in that small window, he’s going to remain limited the rest of the regular season. As a result of his return, Louis Williams only played 22 minutes; he scored 15 points but did little else. He needs more time on the court to get in a rhythm and take more shots to have value in fantasy. Patrick Beverley has a reduced usage (-1.5%) and takes a hit to his per-minute production when Anderson shares the floor with him. He’s put together a nice few games, but he’s very up and down. With the impending minutes reduction, he’s probably not worth the risk.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $4,900 $5,400 $10,600 0.82 30.7 1.8 25.1 3.9 16.3% 0.9% 21 -1.91
James Harden $12,100 $12,400 $22,100 1.48 36.6 0.3 54.0 -3.4 38.6% 1.3% 20 -2.53
Trevor Ariza $5,800 $5,900 $11,600 0.72 34.6 2.1 24.9 1.0 14.4% 2.0% 24 -2.83
Ryan Anderson $4,200 $4,200 $8,400 0.70 29.6 -16.5 20.8 -6.2 17.1% 2.6% 29 0.20
Clint Capela $5,500 $5,700 $11,200 1.08 23.8 1.0 25.6 0.4 19.0% 2.4% 24 1.00
Eric Gordon $4,500 $5,100 $10,100 0.77 31.1 4.9 23.9 -1.6 22.3% -1.5% 20 N/A
Lou Williams $4,500 $5,400 $10,600 1.03 24.5 4.4 25.3 -3.0 29.1% -4.2% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Clint Capela (cash)

Secondary Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela (GPP)

Sacramento Kings

It seems like Koufos is done for the season. Sacramento is rotating players in and out for rest, so it’s a team to monitor throughout the day. Buddy Hield has been playing every night, though, and he’s routinely on the floor for 30 minutes. Over the past four weeks he has one of the highest usage rates (23.9%) along with Tyreke Evans (24.5%) and Ben McLemore (25.6%). Evans takes rest days frequently, and when he plays, he’s normally around the 20-minute mark. McLemore has received at least 25 in four of the past five games and he’s scored 26 or more FD points in three of them. Skal Labissiere has received over 30 in four of the past five and returned over 20 FD points in each. He’s the cheapest guy getting a decent workload, which makes him a nice value play. Especially considering Houston struggles to defend power forwards and their playing without motivation for the most part. Willie Cauley-Stein’s time on the floor fluctuates, but he’s be their best performer statistically. Darren Collison normally starts and plays into the mid-20s, but he’s unreliable. Given the weird rotations and matchup, the three guys worth considering are Hield, Cauley-Stein, and Labissiere. This could change based on who the Kings decide to rest today.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,500 $5,200 $10,200 0.77 30.3 -4.6 23.2 -1.5 22.1% 2.3% 25 1.93
Buddy Hield $5,500 $5,800 $11,600 0.71 22.6 7.2 16.1 5.0 20.9% 0.0% 26 -1.73
Arron Afflalo $3,600 $3,000 $6,000 0.50 25.8 -3.1 12.9 -0.3 14.3% 2.0% 23 1.55
Skal Labissiere $4,100 $5,000 $9,800 0.90 17.4 13.6 15.7 5.9 20.7% -2.6% 27 -0.19
Willie Cauley-Stein $6,300 $6,500 $12,300 0.87 18.6 10.9 16.2 13.4 18.6% -0.7% 25 1.22

Elite Plays – Skal Labissiere

Secondary Plays – Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein

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About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).