NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 17th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Sacramento Kings at Toronto Raptors – 3:30 PM ET
Sacramento Kings | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 207.0 | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 97.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.9 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | George Hill | Buddy Hield | Garrett Temple | Skal Labissiere | Zach Randolph | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 3 | 23 | 1 | 10 | 14 | DvP | 11 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 29 | |
DRPM Rat. | 6 | 24 | 5 | 19 | 28 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 8 | 14 | 27 | 21 |
Sacramento Kings
Notable Injuries
De’Aaron Fox (Doubtful)
Happy Sunday, Grinders! This will be my last NBA Grind Down article before the holidays, as there are no NBA games next Sunday. As such, I would like to wish all of you a Merry Christmas! We have a relatively light NBA day today, with just four games on the schedule. FanDuel has split the day up into a pair of two game slates, while DraftKings is using all four games as their main offering, with an additional two game evening slate. Let’s see what the day has to offer!
We kick things off with one of the worst teams to target in all of DFS hoops, as the Sacramento Kings take the court against Toronto. Both of these teams rank in the bottom ten in the NBA in pace, and Toronto ranks inside the top ten in defensive efficiency. This is not a great matchup for the Kings, and they are double digit road underdogs. On a larger slate, this would be a team that we would simply write off and move on. Unfortunately, we can’t quite do that on a four game day.
The backcourt for this team is a real mess, but it will be a little less cluttered with De’Aaron Fox doubtful for this one. Still, eleven Kings saw more than 12 minutes of court time in the last game, and that is a nice microcosm of how hard it is to peg this squad. Frank Mason and Buddy Hield should each pick up a few more minutes with Fox likely out, and they carry much more upside than the likes of George Hill and Garrett Temple. You can give Mason and Hield a look in GPPs today.
Things are a little more settled up front. Zach Randolph has looked like an All Star over the last month, but he will take a hit with Willie Cauley-Stein back in action. We haven’t seen Cauley-Stein have a big game yet, but he’s got plenty of potential even though he has been coming off the bench. All told, Randolph is the safest guy from this team in cash games, but nobody checks in as an elite play despite the short slate.
UPDATE – Zach Randolph is OUT today due to rest. Upgrade Willie Cauley-Stein a lot.
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 96.2 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.5 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (3 of 8)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
George Hill | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 19.0 | 6.2 | 25.8 | -0.4 | 0.73 | 16.3% | 1 | 3 | 6 |
Buddy Hield | $5,300 | $5,000 | $10,300 | 21.5 | -1.6 | 23.1 | 4.0 | 0.93 | 21.7% | 30 | 23 | 24 |
Garrett Temple | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 15.6 | -8.6 | 24.4 | -8.2 | 0.64 | 14.2% | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Skal Labissiere | $3,500 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 15.3 | -1.6 | 16.7 | -3.1 | 0.91 | 20.0% | 9 | 10 | 19 |
Zach Randolph | $7,300 | $6,400 | $13,200 | 28.4 | 9.1 | 25.9 | 4.0 | 1.10 | 24.1% | 7 | 14 | 28 |
Frank Mason | $4,300 | $4,100 | 14.9 | 2.8 | 18.9 | 5.9 | 0.79 | 21.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
Willie Cauley-Stein | $5,900 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 24.2 | -3.8 | 24.6 | -0.1 | 0.98 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Willie Cauley-Stein
Secondary Plays – Frank Mason (GPP), Buddy Hield
Toronto Raptors
Notable Injuries
C.J. Miles (Probable)
Even though this game likely won’t be played at a fast pace, the matchup is certainly better for the Toronto side. Sacramento ranks near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency, and Toronto is at home here, so that’s why they have an implied team total of a healthy 110 points. Kyle Lowry has been a really interesting case this year. He was bad in October, great in November, and has slumped a bit again in December. It all comes down to his shooting, as he shot 37% in October, 50% in November, and is now shooting 35% in December. That doesn’t take a math wizard to figure out. The peripheral stats have been consistent, but the scoring is what has been more hit or miss. Against an inexperienced Sacramento backcourt, I’ll bank on him being able to knock down a few more jumpers today. DeMar DeRozan should also thrive against this team, and he is an elite play in all formats.
Toronto is the opposite of Sacramento in that their backcourt is stable but the frontcourt is less so. Poor Jonas Valanciunas has always been a very effective per minute player, but Dwane Casey just doesn’t like him or something. Over his last three games, Valanciunas has put up 105 DraftKings points in 80 minutes of court time. That would equate to 47 fantasy points per 36 minutes for a guy that costs $5,300 on the site. That’s three more fantasy points than Andre Drummond is averaging per game this year. Unfortunately, Big Val has zero chance of playing 36 minutes per game. I have no idea why the coaching staff hates him like they do. He’s an elite tournament option on the hopes that he sees 28-32 minutes today, but the risk is very real every time he takes the court. Serge Ibaka is your safer frontcourt option, though he doesn’t carry the ceiling of Valanciunas. With C.J. Miles back today, Norman Powell and Pascal Siakam carry more risk off the bench.
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.0 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -1.5 (6 of 8)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (28 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kyle Lowry | $8,600 | $8,300 | $15,100 | 35.2 | 0.5 | 33.1 | 0.7 | 1.06 | 21.1% | 17 | 11 | 19 |
DeMar DeRozan | $9,000 | $8,400 | $15,400 | 38.8 | 4.0 | 34.3 | -0.1 | 1.13 | 28.0% | 9 | 15 | 8 |
OG Anunoby | $3,900 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 12.5 | -2.6 | 20.3 | 3.3 | 0.61 | 11.0% | 18 | 14 | 14 |
Serge Ibaka | $6,400 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 25.8 | 8.2 | 27.8 | 3.2 | 0.93 | 16.9% | 27 | 15 | 27 |
Jonas Valanciunas | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 22.3 | 7.6 | 21.1 | 4.4 | 1.06 | 17.2% | 28 | 29 | 21 |
Jakob Poeltl | $4,100 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 16.3 | -0.4 | 16.6 | 3.0 | 0.98 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP), Serge Ibaka (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (Cash), Serge Ibaka (GPP), Pascal Siakam
Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons – 4:00 PM ET
Orlando Magic | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 201.5 | Vegas Total | 201.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 95.8 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Jonathon Simmons | Mario Hezonja | Wes Iwundu | Nikola Vucevic | Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 5 | 18 | 30 | 14 | 6 | DvP | 29 | 28 | 21 | 27 | 17 | |
DRPM Rat. | 26 | 18 | 16 | 30 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 22 | 30 | 20 | N/A | 5 |
Orlando Magic
Notable Injuries
Aaron Gordon (Out)
Evan Fournier (Out)
Terrence Ross (Out)
Arron Afflalo (Questionable)
Jonathan Isaac (Questionable)
Look at that list of injuries. Wow. Of course, all five of those guys play shooting guard and small forward, with Gordon also spending time at the four. This team is extremely thin on the wings right now. Jonathan Simmons is going to continue to see massive minutes, because the team simply has no choice. Mario Hezonja should continue to start, and he was absolutely fantastic in the last game that Gordon missed. If this game stays close, I could see both Simmons and Hezonja playing about 40 minutes, especially if Afflalo can’t go. Fire both of them up as elite point per dollar options in all formats.
Hi, yes, Elf? It’s me, Justin. Can you please come off the shelf? What in the world is wrong with Elfrid Payton??? Even with half this team on the injury report, Payton simply can’t get it going. In theory, he should be able to smash with this offense in shambles, but that simply hasn’t been the case. His minutes haven’t really increased, either, as the injuries haven’t been at point guard. Payton is not a cash game option this point, but the potential GPP upside still feels tangible. He’s a risk/reward play. D.J. Augustin carries some appeal as a value play, as he will play backup point guard minutes and will also see some time off the ball with all the injuries. He’s preferable if all five of the above listed players are sidelined.
It’s a small sample size, but if we fire up CourtIQ with Gordon, Fournier, Ross, and Isaac off the floor, Nikola Vucevic is averaging 60 (!) fantasy points per 36 minutes. That’s… pretty good stuff. This is a tough individual matchup against Andre Drummond, but Vucevic can’t be removed from the elite plays list at this point. Even though Orlando has the lowest implied team total on the board today at just 96 points, they carry a lot of appeal simply because so many guys are injured.
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.8 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -10.2 (8 of 8)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (22 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Elfrid Payton | $7,000 | $5,600 | $12,100 | 27.0 | -8.0 | 28.1 | 0.3 | 0.96 | 19.9% | 14 | 5 | 26 |
Jonathon Simmons | $6,600 | $6,600 | $11,900 | 23.3 | 12.4 | 28.4 | 6.2 | 0.82 | 21.0% | 1 | 18 | 18 |
Mario Hezonja | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 0.70 | 13.0% | 29 | 30 | 16 |
Wes Iwundu | $3,700 | $3,200 | $6,200 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 0.47 | 13.4% | 14 | 14 | 30 |
Nikola Vucevic | $9,800 | $9,200 | $17,500 | 38.7 | 15.7 | 30.6 | 3.1 | 1.26 | 22.3% | 13 | 6 | 2 |
D.J. Augustin | $4,200 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 16.6 | 1.9 | 20.5 | 4.0 | 0.81 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic, Jonathan Simmons, Mario Hezonja
Secondary Plays – D.J. Augustin, Elfrid Payton (GPP)
Detroit Pistons
Notable Injuries
Avery Bradley (Questionable)
Avery Bradley is questionable to play today after missing the last game for the Pistons. Reggie Bullock and Luke Kennard stepped up in his absence, with Bullock putting up a decent fantasy line for minimum salary. He also played 33 minutes and would stand to benefit the most if Bradley is out again. He’s by no means a sexy play, but he’s available as a value if that circumstance plays out. Stanley Johnson would also get a boost off the bench, but he’s a low usage guy that’s almost impossible to get excited about. You could also avoid this whole gaggle of wing players and probably not miss out on much.
The team has responded to Stan Van Gundy’s criticism after a lifeless effort against Denver earlier in the week. They have busted out after a seven game losing streak with a pair of wins, and they should get another one here today. Orlando is a weak defensive squad, especially with all those injuries. Andre Drummond is having a fine year and should be able to have his way on the glass in this one. Drummond has had massive games in both of the recent wins, and you can make a case for him as one of the top overall plays today. Tobias Harris is also a safe play, and he doesn’t shoot 2-for-14 from the floor very often, as he did on Friday. I would expect a better game today.
The only spot on this team that is really hard to peg is at the point. Both Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith played exactly 24 minutes in the last game, which is a nice microcosm of what to expect with this rotation. Jackson tends to get the upper hand in most games, but that’s no lock. As such, he is nothing more than a risk/reward mid-range point guard play. I prefer the other options.
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.6 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.2 (1 of 8)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.1 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.1 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.2 (6 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reggie Jackson | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,700 | 26.1 | -8.9 | 27.5 | -3.5 | 0.95 | 25.4% | 26 | 29 | 22 |
Avery Bradley | $5,500 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 23.7 | -7.8 | 31.3 | -3.8 | 0.76 | 21.0% | 28 | 28 | 30 |
Reggie Bullock | $3,800 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 16.8 | 4.9 | 0.58 | 10.1% | 27 | 21 | 20 |
Tobias Harris | $6,800 | $6,100 | $12,300 | 28.5 | -5.1 | 33.0 | -1.4 | 0.86 | 20.4% | 18 | 27 | N/A |
Andre Drummond | $10,000 | $9,500 | $17,500 | 43.1 | -5.4 | 33.1 | -2.6 | 1.30 | 17.9% | 22 | 17 | 5 |
Stanley Johnson | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 16.7 | -6.0 | 27.7 | -10.1 | 0.60 | 13.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Tobias Harris
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Reggie Bullock (value – IF Bradley is out)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards – 6:00 PM ET
Cleveland Cavaliers | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 213.0 | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -1.5 | Vegas Spread | 1.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 107.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.8 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 13 | 6 | 24 | 1 | 11 | DvP | 21 | 26 | 19 | 19 | 12 | |
DRPM Rat. | 11 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 10 | 26 | 14 | 28 | 19 |
Cleveland Cavaliers
Notable Injuries
Dwyane Wade (Out)
Tristan Thompson (Out)
Iman Shumpert (Out)
Derrick Rose (Out)
This is probably your game of the day on a short four game Sunday. Cleveland is on the tail end of a back-to-back set after beating Utah on Saturday, and they have already announced that both Dwyane Wade and Tristan Thompson will rest today. I assume this means that the other players will all play, as you would THINK they would announce all resting players at the same time. As such, we can safely fire up the two primary players as elite options, with those obviously being LeBron James and Kevin Love. In case you need a refresher here’s what James did the last time Cleveland faced this team:
43 minutes.
23-for-34 shooting.
57 points.
11 rebounds.
7 assists.
That’s a lot of fantasy points. Washington has struggled mightily with elite wings all year, and LeBron is obviously a physical mismatch. I wouldn’t go expecting 90 fantasy points again, but the high upside and high floor make James the obvious #1 overall play on today’s slate. Outside of James and Love, this team is very difficult to trust. I am not buying into one big game from Jose Calderon. J.R. Smith is capable of getting hot from distance and should benefit a bit from Wade’s absence. He would be the only other player on my radar here.
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.3 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.1 (7 of 8)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.2 (15 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jose Calderon | $4,500 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 10.0 | 13.3 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 0.60 | 11.0% | 4 | 13 | 11 |
J.R. Smith | $4,100 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 17.6 | 2.0 | 30.7 | -2.1 | 0.57 | 11.9% | 12 | 6 | 19 |
LeBron James | $12,500 | $11,800 | $21,900 | 55.1 | 8.5 | 37.3 | 0.7 | 1.48 | 29.4% | 12 | 24 | 1 |
Jae Crowder | $3,600 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 15.7 | 3.5 | 25.8 | 1.4 | 0.61 | 13.8% | 18 | 1 | 11 |
Kevin Love | $8,000 | $8,200 | $14,900 | 36.3 | 3.2 | 29.4 | 0.3 | 1.23 | 22.9% | 11 | 11 | 13 |
Dwyane Wade | $4,800 | $5,000 | $10,600 | 24.9 | -6.1 | 23.7 | 0.4 | 1.05 | 22.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Jeff Green | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 18.7 | -0.2 | 21.9 | 4.2 | 0.85 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Kyle Korver | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 16.2 | -0.4 | 22.5 | 1.3 | 0.72 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love
Secondary Plays – J.R. Smith
Washington Wizards
Notable Injuries
Otto Porter (Questionable)
This could very well be a close, high-scoring game, in which case it might make sense to stack it up in a tournament setting. John Wall returned and played 30 minutes the other night against the Clippers. I would expect him to play without much (if any) restrictions in this one. His price is still slightly discounted from its usual level, so take advantage of the discount while it still exists. With Wade out, Cleveland’s guards have no ability to match up with him. Bradley Beal is also a fine option, but I prefer Wall between the two.
Otto Porter left the game the other night after playing just three minutes and is listed as questionable today. If he can’t play, Kelly Oubre should earn the start. He played 34 minutes and logged eight points and seven rebounds in the contest. He has proven to be a reliable stopgap in the past, though he does tend to disappear at times. Keep an eye on Porter’s status, and fire up Oubre if Porter is sidelined. I can’t trust the other starting forwards at this point. Both Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat have been massive disappointments thus far in the 2017-2018 season, while Mike Scott has quietly been playing well off the bench. Scott is a GPP option if you are feeling super frisky and contrarian on a four game slate. Porter’s status is the big thing to watch up front.
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (4 of 8)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (13 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
John Wall | $9,500 | $8,500 | $16,200 | 40.8 | -8.9 | 33.8 | -5.2 | 1.21 | 29.0% | 18 | 21 | 10 |
Bradley Beal | $8,500 | $7,700 | $15,900 | 36.1 | 3.3 | 35.1 | 2.3 | 1.03 | 26.9% | 22 | 26 | 26 |
Otto Porter | $6,800 | $6,200 | 30.6 | -2.8 | 31.5 | -6.2 | 0.97 | 17.3% | 26 | 19 | 14 | |
Markieff Morris | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 18.9 | -8.0 | 23.1 | -4.5 | 0.82 | 17.8% | 21 | 19 | 28 |
Marcin Gortat | $4,600 | $5,100 | $10,300 | 25.4 | 0.2 | 28.5 | -3.7 | 0.89 | 13.6% | 12 | 12 | 19 |
Kelly Oubre | $4,900 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 22.5 | -2.7 | 27.6 | 0.2 | 0.81 | 16.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Mike Scott | $3,800 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 15.0 | 8.9 | 18.5 | 4.8 | 0.81 | 16.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal, Mike Scott (GPP), Kelly Oubre (IF Porter is out)
Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets – 6:00 PM ET
Indiana Pacers | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 217.0 | Vegas Total | 217.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 110.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.0 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 4.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 27 | 20 | 27 | 25 | 28 | DvP | 20 | 13 | 4 | 22 | 30 | |
DRPM Rat. | 4 | 22 | 3 | 20 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 1 | 28 | 10 | 10 |
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries
Thaddeus Young (Questionable)
Indiana draws the favorable fantasy assignment that is the Brooklyn Nets today, and while Brooklyn is not the defensive joke that they were last year, they still aren’t a strong defensive group. They also play at the fastest pace in the NBA, so there is plenty of fantasy goodness to go around. This game has a high 217 point total and a three point spread, so giddy up for some fun! With this Pacers team, it all starts with Victor Oladipo right now. He has been nothing short of fantastic this season, and he is averaging 24 shot attempts per game over the last five contests. He is taking over this team and should absolutely thrive against the Nets. Oladipo is my #2 overall play today behind only LeBron James and ahead of Andre Drummond. Fire him up with confidence in all formats.
The rest of the squad is a bit of a wild card, especially since we don’t yet know the status of Thaddeus Young. Should Young happen to sit, Domantas Sabonis might play next to Myles Turner some, or you could see the team go small and give more minutes to Lance Stephenson, who is also playing well right now. I will only consider Sabonis if Young is out, but you can consider Stephenson as a risk/reward value in any case. Darren Collison also fits that mold; though this is a great matchup, he has been losing a few more minutes to Cory Joseph. Indiana does generally go with a tight nine man rotation, so there should be a few guys that make value against the Nets. Picking the right secondary play in addition to Oladipo will likely be a big key to success today. Keep a close eye on Young’s status.
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.1 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (2 of 8)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 111.0 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.1 (2 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Darren Collison | $5,800 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 27.6 | -6.5 | 30.8 | -3.6 | 0.90 | 18.4% | 28 | 27 | 4 |
Victor Oladipo | $9,700 | $9,300 | $17,400 | 42.1 | 8.5 | 34.2 | 5.1 | 1.23 | 27.6% | 24 | 20 | 22 |
Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 20.5 | -5.1 | 31.6 | 1.6 | 0.65 | 16.1% | 7 | 27 | 3 |
Thaddeus Young | $6,600 | $6,300 | $13,200 | 29.6 | 7.1 | 33.9 | 4.7 | 0.87 | 15.9% | 28 | 25 | 20 |
Myles Turner | $8,300 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 32.5 | 5.5 | 30.3 | 5.1 | 1.07 | 18.1% | 26 | 28 | 13 |
Cory Joseph | $3,600 | $4,000 | $7,700 | 17.4 | -5.1 | 24.6 | -0.2 | 0.71 | 15.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Lance Stephenson | $4,600 | $4,200 | $8,300 | 19.3 | 5.7 | 22.1 | 4.8 | 0.88 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Domantas Sabonis | $4,300 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 24.8 | -5.6 | 24.1 | -5.2 | 1.03 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner
Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (GPP), Lance Stephenson, Thaddeus Young (if active), Domantas Sabonis (if Young is out)
Brooklyn Nets
Notable Injuries
Allen Crabbe (Probable)
The wild card team on this slate is most definitely the Nets. Their rotations are a mess at times, but they are also capable of scoring some points. They are only three point underdogs in this game and have an implied team total of 107 points, so ignoring this spot completely feels like a mistake. Don’t put too much stock into the minutes from the last game, as they got blown out by the Raptors in that one. Allen Crabbe is expected to return today, which will send Joe Harris back to a minimal bench role. I’m not going to trust Crabbe in his return, so I will avoid that situation. Caris LeVert was a massive disappointment as a popular play the other day, but I am okay going back to the well today. His skill set matches up the best in an attempt to slow down Victor Oladipo, so I expect a lot of minutes today. He’s also got some sneaky upside. LeVert is my second favorite play from this squad.
Naturally, the top play from the Nets is Spencer Dinwiddie. He has been amazingly consistent since D’Angelo Russell got hurt, and his mid-range price point is still reasonable given his production. He’s a little more pricey on FanDuel, but he’s still in play everywhere. DeMarre Carroll rested against the Raptors but should be good to go today. Along with Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, these are the last two Nets that carry any steady fantasy value. I generally side with Hollis-Jefferson if choosing between the two since he seems to carry a bit more upside, but it’s hard to parse these players apart. Both are in play as secondary options.
UPDATE – I am downgrading LeVert slightly with Crabbe back and Stauskas stealing some minutes going forward.
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.4 (5 of 8)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (11 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,500 | $6,800 | $12,600 | 28.5 | 5.7 | 26.7 | 3.8 | 1.07 | 22.7% | 10 | 20 | 7 |
Allen Crabbe | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 20.7 | -1.7 | 27.9 | 4.9 | 0.74 | 16.8% | 11 | 13 | 1 |
DeMarre Carroll | $5,800 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 26.7 | -5.2 | 29.6 | -0.9 | 0.90 | 17.5% | 6 | 4 | 28 |
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,300 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 28.1 | 5.4 | 27.7 | 2.3 | 1.01 | 19.5% | 26 | 22 | 10 |
Tyler Zeller | $3,600 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 17.2 | 0.5 | 18.8 | 2.0 | 0.92 | 15.0% | 29 | 30 | 10 |
Caris LeVert | $6,000 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 23.9 | -1.5 | 26.4 | 2.1 | 0.91 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Jarrett Allen | $3,600 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 13.9 | -2.2 | 16.3 | 1.4 | 0.85 | 10.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |