NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 14th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Happy Thursday everyone. We are only a day away from the start of the weekend. Luckily, there are only five games on the schedule tonight. My internet went out this morning and not surprisingly, they can’t send anyone out to look at it until Friday morning. So, I am writing this at a nearby Starbucks. While my Lime Refresher is great, the Christmas music is blasting through the podcasts that I’m trying to listen to with my headphones. Unfortunately, I don’t want to stay here the entire day, so I will not be able to do the premium chat or the Grind Down video update for premium members. Hopefully, my internet will be fixed tomorrow and I’ll do the chat and the video then.
New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 4.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 17 | 28 | 24 | 28 | DvP | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 4 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 22 | 3 | 20 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 14 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 22 | |
New York Knicks
The Knicks have lost six of their last ten games and have dropped down into a tie for seventh in the Eastern Conference. While they are a borderline playoff team at best, they draw an elite matchup tonight against the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked second in pace of play and 27th in points allowed per game. The Knicks have an implied total of 105.8 points, which is the fifth highest overall and 1.5 points above their season average.
Jarrett Jack has scored at least 23 fantasy points in three of his last four games, but I like his backup (Frank Nkilitina) a little more. Frank is considerably cheaper and should see a similar number of minutes. The matchup is obviously the same for both players. Ron Baker has also gotten into the mix, but he’s a deep tournament dart at best tonight. Courtney Lee is going to fly under the radar because that’s what he always does. Despite an elite matchup and 35+ minute upside, I expect his ownership to be under 15% in tournaments.
Lance Thomas has seen extended playing time recently, but he has a true usage rate of 10% and a FP/min of only 0.49. Kristaps Porzingis is coming off of a huge outing against the Lakers and draws an equally favorable matchup tonight against the Nets. Brooklyn is ranked 24th or worse in efficiency and DvP against power forwards. Porzingis is a bit expensive, but I will still have some shares in tournaments. Enes Kanter has been quiet since coming back from his injury and a lot of teams tend to play small against the Nets. Kanter is a deep GPP dart at best.
Notable Injuries
Tim Hardaway (Out)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.3 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.5 (3 of 10)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.6 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.0 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,900 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 18.9 | 5.1 | 26.1 | 0.8 | 0.73 | 16.5% | 28 | 27 | 4 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,300 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 24.4 | -2.1 | 32.2 | 0.0 | 0.76 | 15.9% | 20 | 17 | 22 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 8.2 | 1.6 | 16.8 | 9.0 | 0.49 | 10.9% | 9 | 28 | 3 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $10,200 | $9,600 | $18,500 | 41.9 | 3.9 | 32.4 | 4.6 | 1.29 | 29.5% | 27 | 24 | 20 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,700 | $6,600 | $12,900 | 29.2 | -4.2 | 25.8 | -0.6 | 1.13 | 17.9% | 23 | 28 | 13 |
| Ron Baker | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 10.8 | 3.6 | 14.4 | 7.0 | 0.75 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 15.7 | 7.2 | 20.1 | 4.2 | 0.78 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Frank Ntilikina (DK), Courtney Lee (FD), Kristaps Porzingis (GPP)
Secondary Plays -Frank Ntilikina (FD), Courtney Lee (DK), Kristaps Porzingis (Cash), Jarrett Jack
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule. They push the pace and they prefer not to play defense. This leads to a lot of shootouts, which leads to a lot of fantasy production. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 12th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency. Brooklyn has an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the third highest on the board.
Spencer Dinwiddie has really flourished in D’Angelo Russell’s absence. For whatever reason, he always seems a bit overpriced on FanDuel and a bit underpriced on DraftKings. If you are playing both sites, it makes sense to get your exposure to him on DraftKings, where he is $1,000 cheaper. We have to like the matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 29th in efficiency and 28th in DvP against point guards.
Allen Crabbe is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is active, he makes a nice tournament play given the fact that he has played at least 31 minutes in three straight games. If he is ruled out, Caris LeVert and Joe Harris will both see an increase in playing time. LeVert is viable on DraftKings either way, but I would bump him up to an elite play if Crabbe is out. Harris is a slightly better play on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings.
DeMarre Carroll minutes are tough to predict and with three viable pivots at small forward (Harrison Barnes, Courtney Lee, and Taurean Prince), he’s a fairly easy fade. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is similar to Dinwiddie in that he always seems underpriced on DraftKings. RHJ is averaging 34 fantasy points over his last four games and could see a few extra minutes tonight, as he’ll be tasked with defending Kristaps Porzingis. I expect Jahlil Okafor to crack the rotation soon, so I will be avoiding both Tyler Zeller and Jarrett Allen.
Notable Injuries
Allen Crabbe (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 108.3 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.3 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (7 of 10)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,700 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 28.5 | 2.0 | 26.5 | 2.0 | 1.07 | 22.4% | 29 | 28 | 14 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 20.9 | -0.6 | 27.6 | 1.9 | 0.76 | 17.0% | 4 | 15 | 20 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 26.9 | -4.8 | 29.5 | -1.0 | 0.91 | 17.7% | 20 | 7 | 19 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,200 | $6,100 | $12,900 | 27.8 | 6.3 | 27.6 | 3.8 | 1.01 | 19.3% | 3 | 6 | 18 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,800 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 17.3 | 3.8 | 18.8 | 1.6 | 0.92 | 15.1% | 3 | 4 | 22 |
| Caris LeVert | $6,100 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 24.2 | 10.6 | 26.4 | 3.0 | 0.92 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jarrett Allen | $3,900 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 15.0 | 3.1 | 16.6 | 3.7 | 0.90 | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 17.3 | -4.5 | 23.9 | 4.4 | 0.73 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (DK), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK), Caris LeVert & Joe Harris (if Crabbe is out)
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (FD), Caris LeVert & Joe Harris (if Crabbe is active), Allen Crabbe (if active)
Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.5 |  | Vegas Total | 207.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -4.0 | Vegas Spread | 4.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 105.8 | Implied Team Total | 101.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Reggie Jackson | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Tyler Cavanaugh | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 25 | DvP | 6 | 18 | 30 | 12 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 2 | 18 | 4 | 21 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 18 | 16 | 30 | 2 | |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons forgot to show up against the Nuggets the other night and it hurt my wallet. It was basically a dream matchup and they were playing at home. Targeting the Pistons in that game was a case of good process, bad result. They will try to snap their seven game losing streak tonight against the Hawks, who are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Detroit has a projected point differential of +3.3, which is the highest of the ten teams in action tonight.
We can’t hold biases in DFS, so I will be going right back to the Detroit well tonight. Reggie Jackson isn’t going to crack the 30-minute mark often, but 26-28 minutes against the Hawks is a lot like 30 minutes against an average NBA team. Atlanta is ranked 26th in efficiency against point guards and Dennis Schroder has the worst DRPM of any point guard in basketball. Jackson is firmly in play on FanDuel, as is Ish Smith, who should see around 20 minutes off the bench.
Avery Bradley has not played well recently, but he should play 30+ minutes in a fairly exploitable matchup against the Hawks. Bradley stands out as a nice value in my NBA model, but I’m going to bump him down to a secondary play given his form. I’ll never talk anyone out of playing Tobias Harris against the Hawks, but he’s not really a player that I’m looking to start my lineups with.
Andre Drummond was my favorite play on Tuesday night and to put it kindly, he played like garbage (insert poop emoji). However, he’s made me a lot of money this season and now gets to face one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The Hawks don’t really have a talented center on their active roster and I don’t expect the likes of Miles Plumlee and Tyler Cavanaugh to slow him down. This sets up as a perfect bounce-back opportunity for Drummond.
Notable Injuries
Anthony Tolliver (Probable)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.4 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (1 of 10)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.3 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Jackson | $5,700 | $5,800 | $12,800 | 27.0 | -7.2 | 27.6 | -1.9 | 0.98 | 25.8% | 26 | 14 | 30 |
| Avery Bradley | $5,100 | $5,100 | $10,000 | 23.6 | -3.9 | 31.5 | -1.5 | 0.75 | 20.8% | 5 | 24 | 2 |
| Reggie Bullock | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 8.0 | 1.2 | 15.0 | -0.1 | 0.53 | 9.2% | 30 | 27 | 18 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 28.9 | -3.3 | 33.3 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 20.3% | 24 | 28 | 4 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,400 | $9,300 | $17,100 | 42.2 | -6.7 | 33.1 | -0.8 | 1.28 | 17.5% | 26 | 25 | 21 |
| Ish Smith | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,400 | 18.3 | -0.5 | 20.0 | 2.3 | 0.92 | 24.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson (FD), Andre Drummond
Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (DK), Ish Smith, Avery Bradley (FD), Tobias Harris
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have the worst record in the NBA, but unlike the Pistons, they have at least won a game recently. Atlanta is only listed as a 4.5-point underdog, so hopefully we see a full complement of minutes for the starters. Their matchup against the Pistons doesn’t look great on paper, but Detroit has not been great defensively during their losing streak. The Hawks’ implied total of 101.8 points is two points below their season average.
Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith are both below-average defenders, so it’s strange that the Pistons have held opposing point guards in check this season. I’m still willing to play point guards against Detroit, which brings Dennis Schroder into play. He’s not a core play for me tonight, but with everyone looking to pay up for LeBron James and Kevin Durant, the mid-range options are going to get overlooked in tournaments.
Kent Bazemore is volatile, but he has massive upside. He has topped 45 fantasy points in two of his last three games. He may end up drawing the defense of Avery Bradley, but Bazemore is still on my radar in tournaments. Taurean Prince has the best matchup of the five starters, as the Pistons are ranked 29th in efficiency and 30th in DvP against small forwards. Marco Belinelli is a sneaky value play off the bench, especially on FanDuel ($3,800). I was on board with Prince the other night and I’m on board again tonight. With John Collins returning to action tonight, I will be taking a wait and see approach with the Hawks’ frontcourt.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Out)
Dewayne Dedmon (Out)
John Collins (Probable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.9 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (9 of 10)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.3 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,700 | $7,200 | $14,000 | 33.9 | -1.3 | 31.9 | -0.8 | 1.06 | 29.4% | 18 | 6 | 26 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,900 | $5,700 | $11,800 | 28.0 | 5.1 | 28.7 | 1.3 | 0.98 | 19.2% | 2 | 18 | 18 |
| Taurean Prince | $6,000 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 26.1 | 6.2 | 31.2 | 3.1 | 0.84 | 16.8% | 29 | 30 | 16 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,600 | $5,300 | $11,200 | 20.4 | 8.7 | 22.4 | 4.8 | 0.91 | 15.6% | 13 | 12 | 30 |
| Tyler Cavanaugh | $4,500 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 14.1 | 11.3 | 0.84 | 13.9% | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| John Collins | $5,900 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 24.5 | 23.1 | 1.06 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||
| Marco Belinelli | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,800 | 20.3 | -3.6 | 25.4 | -1.2 | 0.80 | 19.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Taurean Prince, Marco Belinelli (FD)
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore (GPP), Marco Belinelli (DK)
Los Angeles Lakers at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Lakers | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.0 |  | Vegas Total | 219.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.5 | Vegas Spread | -9.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 114.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 4.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Lonzo Ball | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Brandon Ingram | Larry Nance | Brook Lopez | Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 26 | 15 | 17 | 15 | DvP | 25 | 21 | 6 | 25 | 26 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 26 | 14 | 28 | 19 | DRPM Rat. | 2 | 6 | 22 | 4 | 8 | |
Los Angeles Lakers
All I ask of the fantasy gods tonight is that they allow this game to stay competitive. It’s my favorite game to stack in both cash games and tournaments. The Lakers are ranked first in pace of play and both teams are ranked in the bottom nine in points allowed per game. If the starters see a full complement of minutes, there will be plenty of fantasy production to go around.
If any of you play PGA DFS, I like to compare Lonzo Ball to Si Woo Kim. Kim will randomly pop up and win tournaments, but most of the time he misses the cut and ends up being a bust in DFS. Ball is very similar. In his last nine games, he has topped 50 fantasy points twice and has scored below 35 fantasy points seven times. Basically, he’s exceeded value twice in nine games. The way I see it, Ball is an easy cash game fade and for tournaments, you should either always play him or never play him. I personally play Jordan Clarkson more often, as he reaches value far more often.
Outside of Ball, I like a lot of the Lakers in this spot. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should see 35+ minutes tonight against a bad defense. The same can be said for Brandon Ingram, although the mid-range is pretty deep at small forward.
Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma have both been playing more minutes than Larry Nance recently. Randle is viable in all formats, while Nance and Kuzma are best suited as GPP darts. Brook Lopez is only $4,300 on FanDuel. Even if I set his minute projection between 18-19, he stands out as a nice value play in my model.
Notable Injuries
None
Los Angeles Lakers Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (8 of 10)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lonzo Ball | $7,500 | $7,000 | $13,600 | 32.4 | 0.9 | 33.1 | -1.5 | 0.98 | 18.0% | 19 | 22 | 10 |
| Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | $5,900 | $6,000 | $11,900 | 28.1 | 1.2 | 34.5 | 1.1 | 0.82 | 16.5% | 21 | 26 | 26 |
| Brandon Ingram | $6,900 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 29.5 | 2.1 | 34.2 | 3.8 | 0.86 | 19.7% | 25 | 15 | 14 |
| Larry Nance | $5,000 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 24.0 | -1.4 | 23.7 | -0.2 | 1.01 | 13.3% | 19 | 17 | 28 |
| Brook Lopez | $4,300 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 25.5 | -3.2 | 22.9 | -2.3 | 1.11 | 21.9% | 12 | 15 | 19 |
| Julius Randle | $5,300 | $5,100 | $10,900 | 24.3 | -0.8 | 22.6 | 2.3 | 1.07 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Kuzma | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 26.3 | 2.5 | 30.4 | -3.4 | 0.86 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jordan Clarkson | $5,300 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 23.4 | -2.2 | 22.5 | -1.9 | 1.04 | 25.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Julius Randle
Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (GPP), Jordan Clarkson (GPP), Brandon Ingram, Larry Nance (DK), Kyle Kuzma (FD), Brook Lopez (FD)
Cleveland Cavaliers
If you don’t like the spot for the Cavaliers tonight, then you must be looking at something different than I am. Based on my pace projections, they should see around five extra possessions (over their season average) and they are facing a defense that is ranked 24th in points allowed per game. Cleveland has an implied total of 114.3 points, which is the highest on the board and 3.3 points above their season average. The only concern is a potential blowout, but I’m throwing that out the window given the upside for the Cavaliers.
When it comes to Cleveland, it’s basically LeBron James and then everyone else. James is my favorite overall play of the slate and that means that I prefer him over Kevin Durant. If you can find a way to play both without sacrificing the rest of your lineup, that’s the preferred approach. However, if I have to choose one, I’m going to side with James. This team total is massive, the Lakers have no interior defense, and we’ve see James push for 40 minutes in games that are competitive.
Dwyane Wade missed Tuesday’s game with a knee injury and is currently questionable for tonight’s contest. If he is active, he becomes a very intriguing tournament play. If he is out, I will go right back to the Jeff Green and Kyle Korver well. Both would see minutes in the mid to upper-20s in an ideal matchup. Kevin Love continues to produce at a high level (1.22 FP/min), but his minute upside is capped. Luckily, his ownership is typically lower because of it. He is an elite tournament play tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked 26th in DvP against centers.
Notable Injuries
Dwyane Wade (Questionable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 111.0 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 114.3 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (2 of 10)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.9 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.7 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,800 | $3,300 | $6,000 | 8.7 | 7.1 | 16.4 | 7.7 | 0.53 | 10.3% | 20 | 25 | 2 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,300 | $4,100 | $8,800 | 17.3 | 1.7 | 30.6 | -1.6 | 0.57 | 12.0% | 14 | 21 | 6 |
| LeBron James | $12,600 | $11,900 | $20,300 | 54.9 | 9.5 | 37.2 | 1.4 | 1.48 | 29.5% | 6 | 6 | 22 |
| Jae Crowder | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 15.5 | 2.4 | 25.8 | 1.2 | 0.60 | 13.6% | 30 | 25 | 4 |
| Kevin Love | $7,900 | $7,900 | $13,900 | 35.5 | -1.8 | 29.2 | -1.1 | 1.22 | 22.9% | 15 | 26 | 8 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,200 | $5,300 | $10,900 | 24.8 | -7.9 | 23.7 | 1.0 | 1.05 | 22.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 19.2 | 1.8 | 21.8 | 4.2 | 0.88 | 18.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Korver | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 16.2 | 0.3 | 22.5 | 2.4 | 0.72 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (Cash), Dwyane Wade (GPP – if active), Jeff Green and Kyle Korver (if Wade is out)
Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 96.5 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Garrett Temple | Skal Labissiere | Zach Randolph | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 19 | 8 | 5 | 24 | DvP | 11 | 10 | 17 | 15 | 29 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 2 | 28 | 5 | 28 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 19 | 14 | 27 | 21 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings have won five of their last ten games, so we should consider them to be in good form. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on a Wolves’ team that is ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. Despite the decent matchup, the Kings have the lowest implied total on the board (96.5 points). There is also blowout potential here, as the game features a ten point spread.
Even though this doesn’t look like a great spot on paper, there are a few intriguing plays from Sacramento tonight. George Hill has been wildly inconsistent, but has topped 24 fantasy points in three of his last five games. The Wolves haven’t been great against point guards if you want to give him a look in tournaments. Buddy Hield has been playing well off the bench, but will likely draw the coverage of Jimmy Butler for most of his minutes. I have more interest in Bogdan Bogdanovic, who is averaging 26 minutes and 22 fantasy points over his last four games.
With Willie Cauley-Stein back, Zach Randolph played only 27 minutes the other night. I expect him to see 26-28 minutes per game moving forward and not the 32+ minutes that he was playing with WCS out. At the moment, Randolph is overpriced. Cauley-Stein is an intriguing tournament play, as he scored 23 fantasy points in 29 minutes of action in his first game back from injury. The Kings will need his size tonight against Karl-Anthony Towns.
Notable Injuries
None
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 96.2 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (5 of 10)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.5 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (21 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $4,600 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 20.8 | -6.1 | 26.3 | 1.2 | 0.79 | 21.0% | 14 | 16 | 17 |
| George Hill | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 19.4 | 8.6 | 25.6 | -0.1 | 0.76 | 16.6% | 27 | 19 | 2 |
| Garrett Temple | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 15.7 | -7.8 | 24.6 | -8.1 | 0.64 | 14.1% | 16 | 8 | 28 |
| Skal Labissiere | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 15.3 | -0.8 | 16.8 | -2.9 | 0.91 | 20.0% | 7 | 5 | 5 |
| Zach Randolph | $7,500 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 28.6 | 14.1 | 26.0 | 5.8 | 1.10 | 24.0% | 27 | 24 | 28 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $6,000 | $5,100 | $11,000 | 24.6 | -1.4 | 24.8 | 4.7 | 0.99 | 18.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Buddy Hield | $5,400 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 21.9 | 3.9 | 23.1 | 5.0 | 0.95 | 21.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 18.8 | 2.8 | 24.3 | 1.9 | 0.77 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Willie Cauley-Stein (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Willie Cauley-Stein (Cash), George Hill, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have lost five of their last ten games, but are still in fourth place in the Western Conference standings. While the Kings play at a very slow pace, I still consider them a favorable matchup. On the season, Sacramento is ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 26th in rebounding differential. The Wolves have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the fourth highest on the board.
If you are worried about a potential blowout, let me talk you down. There are only five games on the schedule, so eliminating an entire game leaves you with very few options. Not only that, but Tom Thibodeau is famous for leaving his starters in for too long in blowouts. Jeff Teague put up a dud against the Sixers the other night, but should bounce back nicely against the Kings, who don’t have any good point guard defenders. Teague is basically a lock for me in cash games on FanDuel ($6,500).
Andrew Wiggins finally broke out of his slump the other night, but we can’t count on him to put up that type of a well-rounded performance each night. He relies so much on scoring for his fantasy production that he’s going to be volatile on a nightly basis. He’s fine tonight against the Kings, but not a player that I’m starting my lineups with. Ladies (shoutout to any and all female DFS players) and gentlemen, Jimmy Butler has arrived. Over his last four games, he is averaging 47 fantasy points.
Nemanja Bjelica may play tonight, but I’m going right back to the Taj Gibson ATM on FanDuel. All you do is click the plus next to his name and boom, winnings come flying out. He is basically locked into 35+ minutes a night and he draws a nice matchup against the Kings. Karl-Anthony Towns is a nice buy on DraftKings ($9,100). He has the highest minute projection of any center in the slate and he gets to face a Kings’ defense that is ranked 28th in efficiency and 29th in DvP against centers.
Notable Injuries
Nemanja Bjelica (Questionable)
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (6 of 10)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.0 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,500 | $6,400 | $12,400 | 30.6 | -8.7 | 34.3 | 1.5 | 0.89 | 20.0% | 16 | 11 | 29 |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,500 | $8,700 | $16,900 | 37.9 | 8.7 | 37.4 | 4.9 | 1.01 | 22.8% | 8 | 10 | 19 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,500 | $6,200 | $14,000 | 29.6 | -5.8 | 37.0 | 0.1 | 0.80 | 21.4% | 18 | 17 | 14 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 26.6 | 4.9 | 33.5 | 3.4 | 0.79 | 12.4% | 26 | 15 | 27 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,100 | $9,100 | $17,200 | 40.8 | 8.2 | 35.4 | 5.3 | 1.15 | 20.0% | 28 | 29 | 21 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 14.3 | -0.4 | 17.7 | 1.5 | 0.81 | 22.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler (DK), Taj Gibson (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)
Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (FD), Taj Gibson (DK), Andrew Wiggins (FD)
Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 212.5 |  | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.8 | Implied Team Total | 111.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Yogi Ferrell | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Shaun Livingston | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Omri Casspi | Jordan Bell | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 6 | 18 | 22 | 18 | DvP | 23 | 16 | 10 | 23 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 13 | 14 | 3 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 28 | 29 | 12 | 14 | |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are coming off of a big win against the Spurs and will now look to take out another Western Conference juggernaut in the Warriors. Luckily for Dallas, Golden State will basically be without half of their team tonight. The spread is set at 11 points, but there is enough upside to justify taking the risk with the potential blowout. The Mavericks have an implied total of 100.8 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.
In the last two games without Dennis Smith, Yogi Ferrell has played 32 and 35 minutes. He’s one of the top value plays on the board and he helps to afford the two superstars that everyone wants to pay up for (LeBron James and Kevin Durant). J.J. Barea price is up across the industry, which will keep his ownership low. He’s a tremendous tournament play and a great pivot off of Ferrell. You can even play both if you expect the Mavericks to be competitive.
Wesley Matthews should play as many minutes as he can handle and is only $4,600 on DraftKings. I have a hard time not locking him into my main lineup, even in a game that has blowout potential. You can play Ferrell and Matthews for $9,200 combined and will basically get 65-70 minutes. Devin Harris is a decent value as well, although I prefer the other three guards.
This is a revenge game for Harrison Barnes. In his four career games against the Warriors, he has scored 36, 38, 16, and 28 fantasy points. I’ll have some shares of Barnes in tournaments, but he’s my fourth favorite Mavericks’ player to target tonight. Dirk Nowitzki grades out as a decent value, but I’ll likely pass, as he’ll be the first one on the bench in a blowout. Dollar for dollar, I’d rather take a shot on Maxi Kleber, who is averaging 29 minutes over his last four games.
Notable Injuries
Dennis Smith (Out)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 99.9 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (4 of 10)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.4 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,700 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 17.8 | 4.9 | 28.3 | 2.9 | 0.63 | 14.8% | 11 | 19 | 4 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,100 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 22.1 | 2.5 | 34.6 | 0.7 | 0.64 | 15.5% | 3 | 6 | 13 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,600 | $6,700 | $14,200 | 30.9 | 0.1 | 35.1 | -0.9 | 0.88 | 21.6% | 15 | 18 | 14 |
| Maxi Kleber | $4,300 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 17.6 | 11.5 | 0.68 | 11.1% | 17 | 22 | 3 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,500 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 22.2 | -1.4 | 25.0 | 2.0 | 0.89 | 17.9% | 8 | 18 | 4 |
| J.J. Barea | $5,500 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 23.5 | 1.3 | 22.6 | 2.6 | 1.04 | 25.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Devin Harris | $4,100 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 16.2 | -2.6 | 18.8 | 0.7 | 0.86 | 19.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Yogi Ferrell, Wesley Matthews (DK), J.J. Barea (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Wesley Matthews (FD), J.J. Barea (Cash), Harrison Barnes, Maxi Kleber (DK), Devin Harris (DK)
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are missing a number of players tonight, yet they are still listed as 11-point favorites at home against the Mavericks. This is not a great matchup on paper, as Dallas is ranked 25th in pace of play and ninth in points allowed per game. With that said, the Warriors’ implied total is still set at 111.8 points, which is insane given how many injuries they are dealing with.
Shaun Livingston and Quinn Cook have been holding down the fort at point guard, but neither has been productive in fantasy. They are both easy fades tonight against the Mavericks. Klay Thompson may not see a big boost in fantasy production when Stephen Curry is out, but he does see a nice usage bump with Draymond Green off the floor. Given all of the injuries, Thompson could play 35+ minutes and have a usage rate close to 30%. My interest in Thompson will depend on what his ownership projection is set at right before lineups lock.
Andre Iguodala plays everywhere on the floor and should see 30+ minutes tonight against the Mavericks. He’s not a high usage player, but he does a little bit of everything and is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Kevin Durant is an elite play in all formats. He has scored 66, 75, and 51 fantasy points in his last three games. Even though I slightly prefer LeBron James, I’m going to have a lot of exposure to both superstars.
Omri Casspi played 25 minutes the other night and should see a similar number tonight. He’s a little expensive on FanDuel, but makes for a nice value play on DraftKings ($3,500). Jordan Bell will likely be one of the highest owned players of the slate and rightly so. He’s cheap, he should see extended playing time, and the Mavericks have struggled against centers this season.
Notable Injuries
Half the Team (Out)
—- kidding, of course —-
Stephen Curry (Out)
Draymond Green (Out)
Zaza Pachulia (Out)
Nick Young (Out)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 117.0 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.8 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (10 of 10)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Livingston | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 11.5 | 0.7 | 15.9 | 5.3 | 0.72 | 14.5% | 22 | 23 | 1 |
| Klay Thompson | $7,600 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 31.9 | -1.0 | 33.4 | 2.8 | 0.96 | 20.8% | 9 | 16 | 28 |
| Kevin Durant | $11,900 | $11,300 | $21,900 | 46.8 | 10.8 | 34.5 | 1.8 | 1.36 | 26.1% | 27 | 10 | 29 |
| Omri Casspi | $4,100 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 14.1 | -1.4 | 14.8 | 0.6 | 0.95 | 13.6% | 6 | 23 | 12 |
| Jordan Bell | $4,300 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 13.5 | 2.3 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.19 | 12.2% | 23 | 21 | 14 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,700 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 18.4 | 4.3 | 26.5 | 2.6 | 0.69 | 11.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David West | $4,500 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 17.5 | 5.2 | 12.5 | 3.6 | 1.40 | 18.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |