NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 22nd
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
New York Knicks at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
New York Knicks | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 211.5 | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 4.0 | Vegas Spread | -4.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Emmanuel Mudiay | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Michael Beasley | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | D.J. Augustin | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Nikola Vucevic | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 30 | 27 | 24 | 25 | 19 | DvP | 27 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 5 | |
DRPM Rat. | 19 | 27 | 30 | 25 | 6 | DRPM Rat. | 30 | 17 | 16 | 26 | 28 |
New York Knicks
The All-Star break is a great opportunity for the NBA players to rest up and for DFS players to recharge their batteries. The daily grind can certainly take its toll, but we are back at it tonight with a six-game slate. We kick it off with the Knicks and Magic, who are both well outside of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. While this game won’t interest the casual fan, it offers plenty of appeal for daily fantasy basketball. It features a 4-point spread and a total of 211.5 points. The Magic are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.
With little to play for, the Knicks are going to take a longer look at the three young point guards on their roster. Emmanuel Mudiay is being listed as the likely starter for tonight’s game. While I don’t expect him to play 30+ minutes right off the bat, we could certainly see something in the range of 26-30 minutes. It’s often better to be too early than too late, so I will be targeting Mudiay in all formats if he gets the nod. Frank Ntilikina and Trey Burke are both expected to see increased roles in the last two months of the season, but I’ll take a wait and see approach before targeting them in DFS.
Courtney Lee could see a decline in his minutes moving forward, but we have to like his chances to reach value at this price point and in this matchup. He grades out as one of the top shooting guard options tonight on FanDuel ($4,200). Tim Hardaway will look to pick up where he left off before the break, scoring 48 fantasy points against the Wizards. He offers tremendous upside at his price point and is viable in tournaments.
In 11 starts this season, Michael Beasley has averaged 20 points, 7 rebounds, 2 assists, and a block per game. He should find plenty of open looks against a poor Magic defense. Enes Kanter has seen an increased role without Kristaps Porzingis in the lineup. Over his last five games, Kanter is averaging 32 minutes and 40 fantasy points. The way I see it, there are three options at center today and they are all at different price points. We can pay all the way up to Joel Embiid, take the balanced approach with Kanter, or go all the way down to Cristiano Felicio.
Notable Injuries
Michael Beasley (Probable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (10 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (11 of 12)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.9 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (7 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emmanuel Mudiay | $4,600 | $4,400 | $9,500 | 15.9 | 6.2 | 18.2 | 3.6 | 0.87 | 23.0% | 27 | 30 | 19 |
Courtney Lee | $4,200 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 24.0 | -6.1 | 32.6 | -2.9 | 0.74 | 16.7% | 25 | 27 | 27 |
Tim Hardaway | $6,200 | $6,300 | $13,400 | 28.4 | -3.0 | 32.6 | -0.7 | 0.87 | 22.0% | 29 | 24 | 30 |
Michael Beasley | $7,000 | $7,100 | $14,600 | 22.9 | 9.3 | 20.7 | 11.9 | 1.11 | 24.5% | 17 | 25 | 25 |
Enes Kanter | $7,500 | $7,600 | $13,900 | 30.7 | 9.1 | 26.1 | 5.5 | 1.18 | 18.8% | 24 | 19 | 6 |
Kyle O’Quinn | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 19.4 | -1.6 | 16.7 | 0.3 | 1.16 | 15.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Frank Ntilikina | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 13.8 | -6.2 | 20.1 | -1.3 | 0.69 | 16.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Emmanuel Mudiay, Michael Beasley, Enes Kanter, Courtney Lee (FD), Tim Hardaway (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Courtney Lee (FD), Tim Hardaway (GPP)
Orlando Magic
It’s been another subpar season for the Magic, but they do have some good news coming out of the break. Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are both expected to play tonight, which will be a big boost for this offense. Defensively, they are still one of the worst teams in the league. They draw an exploitable matchup against the Knicks, who are playing without their best defender (Kristaps Porzingis) the rest of the season. The Magic have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the seventh highest of the slate and two points above their season average.
We should get an update on how many minutes we can expect from Gordon and Vucevic tonight. With the length of these absences, I expect them to be on minute restrictions. This makes predicting fantasy production difficult and both can be avoided in all formats. With two high usage players back in the lineup, it will cut into the fantasy production of D.J. Augustin, Shelvin Mack, Evan Fournier, Jonathon Simmons, and Mario Hezonja. Rather than trying to out-think the field, I will be avoiding the Magic altogether until we see how their rotation shakes out.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Terrence Ross (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Probable)
Nikola Vucevic (Probable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.5 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (7 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (8 of 12)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (16 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D.J. Augustin | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 16.9 | 5.6 | 21.0 | 6.2 | 0.80 | 18.5% | 19 | 27 | 30 |
Evan Fournier | $6,400 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 27.8 | 0.3 | 32.3 | 0.2 | 0.86 | 21.0% | 9 | 18 | 17 |
Jonathon Simmons | $4,700 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 22.5 | 2.6 | 28.9 | 1.7 | 0.78 | 19.5% | 26 | 14 | 16 |
Aaron Gordon | $8,500 | $7,400 | $13,700 | 34.6 | 34.0 | 1.02 | 21.2% | 7 | 10 | 26 | ||
Nikola Vucevic | $7,900 | $7,200 | $14,900 | 37.9 | 29.9 | 1.27 | 23.1% | 9 | 5 | 28 | ||
Shelvin Mack | $4,300 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 15.2 | 9.8 | 18.2 | 6.8 | 0.83 | 16.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Mario Hezonja | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 17.3 | 18.3 | 19.7 | 11.4 | 0.88 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Evan Fournier (DK)
Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 214.0 | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 103.3 | Implied Team Total | 110.8 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Quincy Acy | Jarrett Allen | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 12 | 11 | 26 | 15 | 16 | DvP | 23 | 15 | 10 | 28 | 30 | |
DRPM Rat. | 13 | 15 | 11 | 14 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 21 | 7 | 16 | 26 |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets will be an interesting team to watch over the next couple of months. With no shot of making the playoffs, they will likely turn the keys over to their young players (it’s not like they have many veterans anyway). They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked 17th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. It doesn’t help that this game is being played in Charlotte. The Nets have an implied total of only 103.3 points, which is the second lowest of the slate and two points below their season average.
Spencer Dinwiddie playing time and fantasy production have not been affected by the return of D’Angelo Russell. This is partly thanks to Caris LeVert being out, which has opened up 25+ minutes a night in the rotation. Over his last five games, Dinwiddie has averaged 35 minutes and 36 fantasy points. Russell is the preferred tournament target of the two, as he offers more per-minute upside. If you are risk-tolerant, I would even consider playing Russell in cash games.
Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll have two fairly difficult matchups against Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but they should both play 30+ minutes if this game stays close. Crabbe and Carroll both grade out as decent values in most projection models, but I won’t be forcing either player into my lineups. Joe Harris is worth a look as a deep tournament dart that should carry low ownership. As for the Nets’ frontcourt, Quincy Acy continues to have a big workload. He’s a decent play tonight on FanDuel ($3,800) where we have to roster two power forwards.
Notable Injuries
Caris LeVert (Out)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Out)
Jahlil Okafor (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (11 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (12 of 12)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (10 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,000 | $6,700 | $12,800 | 29.3 | 7.2 | 29.0 | 5.6 | 1.01 | 23.1% | 15 | 12 | 13 |
Allen Crabbe | $5,400 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 22.0 | 8.7 | 29.5 | 6.6 | 0.75 | 17.0% | 10 | 11 | 15 |
DeMarre Carroll | $6,100 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 26.6 | 6.6 | 29.8 | 4.1 | 0.89 | 18.2% | 24 | 26 | 11 |
Quincy Acy | $3,800 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 20.8 | 13.4 | 0.65 | 12.4% | 24 | 15 | 14 |
Jarrett Allen | $5,300 | $4,900 | $10,100 | 17.2 | 8.1 | 18.2 | 3.9 | 0.95 | 13.9% | 11 | 16 | 7 |
Joe Harris | $3,700 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 17.9 | 7.6 | 25.2 | 4.3 | 0.71 | 15.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
D’Angelo Russell | $6,100 | $5,600 | $11,900 | 26.4 | -0.5 | 23.9 | 0.4 | 1.11 | 31.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Quincy Acy (FD)
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie, Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, Joe Harris (GPP)
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets will try to make a push for the playoffs in the next few weeks but have some major work to do. If they are out of contention in a month’s time, we could see them waive the white flag. They’ve played well at home this season and draw a favorable matchup against the Nets, who are ranked sixth in pace of play and 25th in points allowed per game. The Hornets have an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the third highest of the slate and five points above their season average.
Kemba Walker entered the break in great form, averaging 41 fantasy points in his last five games. While Spencer Dinwiddie is an above-average defender, the Nets as a whole are ranked 24th in efficiency and 23rd in DvP against point guards. The issue with Walker is the elevated price point, which makes him a better tournament play than cash game option. Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have struggled with consistency all season and the Nets have actually defended wing players fairly well this season.
Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky are both viable tonight given their cheap price points and their matchup against the Nets, who are ranked 28th in efficiency and DvP against power forwards. Williams will likely play around 26 minutes with Kaminsky picking up the other 22 minutes. If you are looking for a cheap power forward on FanDuel, you can certainly do worse than these two. Dwight Howard has 20-20 type of upside against a Nets’ team that doesn’t defend the paint or rebound well. Much like Walker, Howard’s price point makes him a better tournament play than cash game option.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (3 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (2 of 12)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (6 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kemba Walker | $9,100 | $8,600 | $16,100 | 38.0 | 3.1 | 35.1 | 0.4 | 1.08 | 27.2% | 24 | 23 | 7 |
Nicolas Batum | $6,300 | $5,900 | $13,100 | 26.1 | -1.6 | 31.6 | 0.1 | 0.83 | 18.7% | 18 | 15 | 21 |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $3,900 | $4,100 | $7,900 | 19.9 | -8.8 | 26.2 | -1.7 | 0.76 | 14.8% | 4 | 10 | 7 |
Marvin Williams | $4,200 | $4,200 | $9,100 | 19.3 | 2.1 | 26.1 | -0.1 | 0.74 | 12.7% | 28 | 28 | 16 |
Dwight Howard | $9,000 | $8,400 | $15,400 | 37.1 | -5.7 | 31.0 | -1.2 | 1.20 | 19.2% | 29 | 30 | 26 |
Jeremy Lamb | $4,800 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 24.5 | -1.9 | 24.9 | -2.8 | 0.98 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Frank Kaminsky | $3,600 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 18.8 | -0.8 | 23.1 | -1.4 | 0.81 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP), Marvin Williams (FD), Frank Kaminsky (FD)
Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
Philadelphia 76ers | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 214.0 | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 110.0 | Implied Team Total | 104.0 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 0.6 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Zach LaVine | David Nwaba | Lauri Markkanen | Cristiano Felicio | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 24 | 28 | 15 | 27 | 17 | DvP | 11 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 12 | |
DRPM Rat. | 10 | 24 | 8 | 26 | 30 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 24 | 1 | 23 | 2 |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are hoping to make their first postseason appearance since the 2011-2012 season. With a record of 30-25, they are currently sitting in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Sixers have an implied total of 110 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate and nearly three points above their season average.
Ben Simmons draws a favorable matchup against a Bulls’ team that is ranked 24th in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. He entered the break in solid form, averaging 45 fantasy points over his last five games. Given his price point, Simmons is best suited as a tournament play despite the matchup. J.J. Redick has scored at least 23 fantasy points in five straight games, he is affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and the Bulls have struggled to defend shooting guards. The best part is that I expect Redick to fly under the radar a bit. T.J. McConnell is an intriguing tournament play off the bench. We know the upside is there, it’s just a question of how many minutes he will play tonight.
Robert Covington grades out as a nice play in my model, but it doesn’t take into account a player’s floor and ceiling. He has as good of a chance to score 15 fantasy points as he does to score 30 fantasy points. His volatility makes him a strong tournament play. Dario Saric seems a bit overpriced, although the matchup is certainly in his favor. As mentioned earlier, there are three center targets on my radar tonight. If paying up, Joel Embiid makes sense against a Bulls’ team that is ranked 20th in rebounding differential. It’s also worth noting that Cristiano Felicio has one of the worst DRPM grades (-0.88) of any center in the NBA.
Notable Injuries
Markelle Fultz (Out)
Justin Anderson (Out)
Joel Embiid (Probable)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.5 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (7 of 12)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.2 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.0 (12 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ben Simmons | $9,000 | $9,000 | $17,400 | 41.4 | 3.5 | 34.9 | -1.8 | 1.19 | 23.0% | 24 | 24 | 10 |
J.J. Redick | $5,100 | $5,300 | $9,800 | 25.8 | 0.9 | 31.9 | -2.5 | 0.81 | 19.4% | 29 | 28 | 24 |
Robert Covington | $5,400 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 27.4 | -6.7 | 32.3 | -1.8 | 0.85 | 15.3% | 26 | 15 | 8 |
Dario Saric | $6,700 | $6,500 | $12,900 | 28.0 | 3.5 | 30.8 | 2.4 | 0.91 | 18.3% | 27 | 27 | 26 |
Joel Embiid | $10,200 | $9,700 | $17,500 | 44.9 | 3.6 | 31.4 | -3.0 | 1.43 | 27.8% | 16 | 17 | 30 |
T.J. McConnell | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.0 | 5.9 | 24.5 | 1.6 | 0.86 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Marco Belinelli | $3,800 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 18.5 | -2.3 | 23.4 | 4.2 | 0.79 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – J.J. Redick, Joel Embiid
Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (GPP), Robert Covington (GPP), T.J. McConnell (GPP), Dario Saric (GPP)
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are starting their youth movement early. With no chance of making the playoffs, they want to get a longer look at the younger players on their roster. They have announced David Nwaba and Cristiano Felicio as starters, moving Justin Holiday and Robin Lopez to the bench. Tonight’s matchup against the Sixers is a difficult one, but it helps that the Bulls are playing at home. Chicago comes into the game with an implied total of 104 points, which is slightly above their season average.
Kris Dunn is no longer on a minute restriction, but it’ll be worth tracking his playing time moving forward after the long layoff, and don’t forget Cameron Payne is expected to make his season debut tonight. We know what Dunn can do when given the minutes though. Zach LaVine is coming off of a solid five-game stretch, averaging 30 minutes and 34 fantasy points in the five games prior to the All-Star break. He’s viable in all formats tonight, but will likely draw the defense of Robert Covington. If the Sixers put Covington on LaVine, David Nwaba will square off against J.J. Redick. Not only is this a great matchup, but Nwaba is close to minimum salary. He’s close to a must play in this six-game slate.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the Bulls’ frontcourt rotation. It sounds like Robin Lopez will be a DNP-CD tonight, which opens up 28 minutes in the rotation. Cristiano Felicio is the most likely beneficiary, but his minutes aren’t quite as safe as those of Lauri Markkanen or Bobby Portis. Given the fact that Felicio’s priced at the minimum on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he warrants the elite play tag in all formats. Markkanen and Portis could both see a boost in playing time as well. While the matchup isn’t ideal, they are both borderline elite plays against the Sixers.
Notable Injuries
None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (9 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (9 of 12)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.1 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (5 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kris Dunn | $6,400 | $6,800 | $11,400 | 32.8 | -13.7 | 29.4 | -9.6 | 1.11 | 24.5% | 1 | 11 | 1 |
Zach LaVine | $7,100 | $7,000 | $12,500 | 28.3 | 5.2 | 25.4 | 5.7 | 1.11 | 29.1% | 16 | 19 | 24 |
David Nwaba | $3,500 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 16.4 | -4.4 | 21.5 | -4.3 | 0.76 | 12.7% | 13 | 16 | 1 |
Lauri Markkanen | $6,400 | $6,000 | $11,600 | 28.6 | -1.7 | 30.2 | 1.0 | 0.95 | 19.5% | 8 | 16 | 23 |
Cristiano Felicio | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 8.4 | -1.2 | 12.8 | -0.9 | 0.66 | 10.9% | 6 | 12 | 2 |
Bobby Portis | $6,000 | $5,500 | $11,900 | 24.2 | 5.4 | 21.0 | 4.2 | 1.15 | 23.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Denzel Valentine | $3,800 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 22.1 | -2.5 | 27.7 | -5.1 | 0.80 | 16.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Justin Holiday | $4,600 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 25.6 | -1.7 | 34.1 | -0.3 | 0.75 | 16.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – David Nwaba, Cristiano Felicio, Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Bobby Portis (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (GPP), Bobby Portis (Cash)
Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM ET
Washington Wizards | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 220.5 | Vegas Total | 220.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 107.5 | Implied Team Total | 113.0 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | George Hill | J.R. Smith | Cedi Osman | LeBron James | Tristan Thompson | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 29 | 25 | 28 | 18 | 23 | DvP | 16 | 9 | 25 | 2 | 11 | |
DRPM Rat. | 27 | 27 | 17 | 20 | 29 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 11 | 1 | 19 | 7 |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and currently sit in fourth place in the Eastern Conference standings. The name of the game for Washington is to tread water until John Wall is able to return to the lineup. Despite playing on the road without their best player, the Wizards are only listed as 5.5-point underdogs. They draw a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wizards’ implied total of 107.5 points is nearly identical to their season average.
Tim Frazier is expected to play tonight, but Tomas Satoransky should still see the bulk of the point guard minutes. Satoransky really played well before the break, averaging 29 minutes and 30 fantasy points in his last five games. We know the Cavaliers struggle to defend point guards and Satoransky should carry low ownership in tournaments. If the Wizards are going to win this game, they will need a big outing from Bradley Beal. He should play 38-40 minutes and he will be the focal point offensively. Given Beal’s price point, he’s a better tournament play than cash game target.
Otto Porter has been inconsistent this season and he is currently priced at a premium. While I love the matchup, I see Porter the same way that I see Beal — they are best suited for tournaments. Kelly Oubre has taken on a larger role with Wall out and should push for 30+ minutes in an excellent matchup. Oubre could be a difference maker in tournaments, as I expect his ownership to be under 15%. Markieff Morris has played well on a per-minute basis, but he hasn’t played more than 29 minutes in any of his last five games. Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi are easy fades in a game where both teams may employ the small ball approach.
Notable Injuries
Jason Smith (Questionable)
Tim Frazier (Probable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (8 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 0.1 (10 of 12)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.8 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.7 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (13 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tomas Satoransky | $5,900 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 15.1 | 14.9 | 18.4 | 11.3 | 0.82 | 15.1% | 27 | 29 | 27 |
Bradley Beal | $9,500 | $9,400 | $16,900 | 38.0 | 1.2 | 36.4 | 3.4 | 1.04 | 26.0% | 20 | 25 | 27 |
Otto Porter | $7,500 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 30.5 | 4.7 | 31.9 | 1.8 | 0.96 | 16.9% | 26 | 28 | 17 |
Markieff Morris | $6,000 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 22.2 | 5.2 | 26.1 | 0.6 | 0.85 | 16.2% | 25 | 18 | 20 |
Marcin Gortat | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 24.0 | 2.1 | 26.3 | -1.1 | 0.91 | 13.8% | 19 | 23 | 29 |
Kelly Oubre | $4,700 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 21.8 | -0.8 | 27.6 | 5.2 | 0.79 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Mike Scott | $3,500 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 15.2 | -0.6 | 18.5 | 0.6 | 0.82 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal (GPP), Otto Porter (GPP), Tomas Satoransky (GPP), Kelly Oubre (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (Cash), Otto Porter (Cash), Tomas Satoransky (Cash), Kelly Oubre (Cash), Markieff Morris
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have won four games in a row and all of a sudden, they look like the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. They picked up depth and shooting before the trade deadline and certainly improved when it comes to team chemistry. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked between 12th and 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 113 points, which is the second highest of the slate and three points above their season average.
The Cavaliers picked up four players at the trade deadline. Here is how they have fared in their first two games with the team — George Hill has averaged 22 minutes and 16 fantasy points, Jordan Clarkson has averaged 23 minutes and 25 fantasy points, Rodney Hood has averaged 21 minutes and 23 fantasy points, and Larry Nance has averaged 22 minutes and 26 fantasy points. All four are intriguing tournament plays, especially in large-field GPPs. My favorite two of the bunch are Clarkson and Nance, but they are risky cash game options.
With all of the value available tonight, LeBron James makes sense as an anchor for both cash games and tournaments. With the team still needing to gel, James will continue to carry the load offensively. He has a good track record against the Wizards, scoring 72, 49, 93, and 53 fantasy points in their last four meetings. Jeff Green has played well off the bench this season, but I’d like to see how this rotation shakes out before targeting him in tournaments. Tristan Thompson offers decent value at center, but we can expect similar production out of Cristiano Felicio.
Notable Injuries
None
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.2 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (2 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (5 of 12)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.5 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (15 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
George Hill | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,300 | 19.8 | -1.5 | 26.4 | -2.9 | 0.75 | 16.2% | 11 | 16 | 9 |
J.R. Smith | $4,800 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 17.3 | 6.8 | 29.7 | 0.4 | 0.58 | 12.2% | 5 | 9 | 11 |
Cedi Osman | $3,900 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 0.68 | 11.5% | 15 | 25 | 1 |
LeBron James | $11,600 | $11,800 | $21,300 | 52.7 | 4.3 | 37.0 | 0.9 | 1.42 | 29.3% | 19 | 2 | 19 |
Tristan Thompson | $4,200 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 15.7 | 4.5 | 21.1 | 6.2 | 0.74 | 10.3% | 10 | 11 | 7 |
Larry Nance | $5,600 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 23.7 | 0.9 | 22.0 | -1.1 | 1.08 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Rodney Hood | $4,800 | $4,900 | $10,000 | 23.9 | -1.5 | 27.5 | -5.5 | 0.87 | 23.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Jeff Green | $3,900 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 18.5 | 2.6 | 22.4 | 3.3 | 0.83 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Larry Nance (GPP), Jordan Clarkson (GPP), Tristan Thompson
Oklahoma City Thunder at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder | Sacramento Kings | |||||||||||
Vegas Total | 212.5 | Vegas Total | 212.5 | |||||||||
Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
Implied Team Total | 110.0 | Implied Team Total | 102.5 | |||||||||
Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Alex Abrines | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Justin Jackson | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | |
Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DvP | 18 | 16 | 23 | 22 | 27 | DvP | 3 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 2 | |
DRPM Rat. | 29 | 23 | 21 | 27 | 17 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 21 | 8 | 27 | 20 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder have picked up some big wins recently, but if they want to advance deep into the playoffs, they are going to need home-court advantage in the first round. They are currently sitting in fifth place in the Western Conference. While the Kings play at a slow pace, they are still an excellent matchup for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 29th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. The Thunder have an implied total of 110 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate and three points above their season average.
The fact that this game is being played in Sacramento helps the fantasy appeal of the Thunder, as the game features a spread of only 7.5 points. Russell Westbrook is an elite play in all formats, as the likes of De’Aaron Fox and Frank Mason stand little chance at defending him. With all of the value, it’s easy to pay up for Westbrook in this slate. Paul George is still overpriced after carrying the load offensively in the few games that Westbrook missed. Until his salary comes down to a playable level, George can be avoided in all formats.
Carmelo Anthony is never an exciting play, but he offers decent value at a price of only $5,800 on DraftKings. The Kings aren’t particularly good at defending power forwards and he presents a difficult matchup for the aging Zach Randolph. Steven Adams is one of the safer plays on the board, but there are three centers that I prefer in a points-per-dollar sense (Joel Embiid, Enes Kanter, and Cristiano Felicio). Adams is viable on sites that allow you to roster more than one center, but he’s not on my list of potential targets on FanDuel.
Notable Injuries
Alex Abrines (Probable)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (5 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.4 (4 of 12)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (26 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Russell Westbrook | $12,000 | $11,500 | $21,400 | 54.0 | 3.8 | 36.2 | 1.2 | 1.49 | 34.7% | 14 | 18 | 29 |
Alex Abrines | $3,900 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 16.0 | 8.1 | 0.55 | 12.0% | 26 | 16 | 23 |
Paul George | $9,500 | $8,800 | $16,400 | 39.0 | 11.4 | 36.5 | 0.1 | 1.07 | 23.4% | 18 | 23 | 21 |
Carmelo Anthony | $6,100 | $5,800 | $13,100 | 28.9 | -8.2 | 32.3 | -7.1 | 0.89 | 22.0% | 19 | 22 | 27 |
Steven Adams | $6,900 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 31.3 | -0.3 | 32.4 | 0.0 | 0.97 | 14.7% | 28 | 27 | 17 |
Jerami Grant | $4,400 | $4,400 | $9,200 | 17.2 | 6.7 | 20.7 | 4.5 | 0.83 | 14.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony (DK)
Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony (FD), Steven Adams
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are tied with five other teams for the fewest number of wins in the NBA. They have been on the wrong end of too many blowouts this season, but are only listed as 7.5-point underdogs tonight. Their matchup against the Thunder doesn’t look great on paper, as Oklahoma City is ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. With that said, the Kings’ implied total is nearly four points higher than their season average.
Frank Mason is expected to return to the lineup, which will eventually cut into the minutes of De’Aaron Fox. While the Kings’ team total is enticing, I don’t have interest in either point guard. I will say that Mason could become an intriguing play if Fox (questionable) is ruled out and we get word that Mason is able to play 20+ minutes. Bogdan Bogdanovic played well before the break and then put on a show at the Rising Stars game. He’s my favorite target from the Kings moving forward and is worth a look tonight in tournaments.
Zach Randolph draws an exploitable matchup against Carmelo Anthony, who is one of the worst power forward defenders in basketball this season. The issue with Randolph is that we never quite know how many minutes he is going to play. The Kings have been upfront about wanting to give their younger players more minutes and it sounds like Skal Labissiere is going to return to the lineup tonight. Willie Cauley-Stein could see a few extra minutes tonight, but he’s a little too expensive given his recent form.
Notable Injuries
De’Aaron Fox (Questionable)
Frank Mason (Probable)
Skal Labissiere (Probable)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 98.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (12 of 12)
Projected Point Differential: 3.8 (3 of 12)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.2 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)
Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
De’Aaron Fox | $5,700 | $5,800 | $12,100 | 22.1 | 0.7 | 27.2 | 1.3 | 0.81 | 21.7% | 10 | 3 | 5 |
Bogdan Bogdanovic | $6,000 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 21.5 | 8.6 | 27.4 | 4.4 | 0.79 | 17.8% | 12 | 17 | 21 |
Justin Jackson | $4,200 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 19.5 | 8.1 | 0.59 | 13.7% | 12 | 6 | 8 |
Zach Randolph | $6,500 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 27.1 | 2.2 | 25.6 | 1.8 | 1.06 | 23.9% | 18 | 13 | 27 |
Willie Cauley-Stein | $7,000 | $6,000 | $11,800 | 28.1 | -2.3 | 27.4 | -1.3 | 1.03 | 19.4% | 2 | 2 | 20 |
Buddy Hield | $4,400 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 20.7 | -0.7 | 23.7 | -3.3 | 0.87 | 21.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |