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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-26 20:02:52

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Golden State Warriors at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM

Golden State Warriors Orlando Magic
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 222.5 orlandonba Vegas Total 222.5
Vegas Sprd -8.0 Vegas Sprd 8.0
Team Proj. 115.3 Team Proj. 107.3
Team Pace 102.30 Team Pace 96.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opp. Season 21 4 20 17 8 Opp. Season 26 11 13 12 27
Last 3 Weeks 13 1 22 17 17 Last 3 Weeks 30 27 8 5 30

Golden State Warriors

Record: 51-5 — Road: 27-5 — Last 10: 9-1

The Warriors picked up a tough win over the Heat last night in Miami. For the tail end of their back-to-back, they head to Orlando to take on the Magic. This could be a terrific game for fantasy production, especially if the game stays as close as the spread suggests. The Warriors are only 8-point favorites with their team total set at 115.3 points.

The Magic have been a mediocre team defensively this season. If the Spurs and Heat can’t slow the Warriors down, we shouldn’t expect the Magic to. The Warriors have the highest team total on the board and provide four viable fantasy options tonight. Even though this is a back-to-back situation, it could help keep the game close.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry
stephen-curry-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,800 Salary:$10,400
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.41 FP/Min:1.55
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.8 34.1 0.3 32.7 -1.1
FPPG (FD) 47.6 48.9 1.3 51.5 4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 27.7 29.2 1.5 30.6 2.9

In yesterday’s Grind Down, I mentioned that Russell Westbrook was a better play than Curry in cash games. The logic was right, but the results didn’t pan out as expected. Curry went bonkers against the Heat, posting a 42/7/7/2/1 line, which was good enough for 59 fantasy points. He should see a full complement of minutes tonight against the Magic and as I mentioned above, the Warriors have the highest team total on the board. While you can’t go wrong with either player, I’m going to give the edge to Westbrook in cash games again tonight.

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green
draymond-green-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,400 Salary:$8,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.24
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.2 34.3 0.1 34.3 0.1
FPPG (FD) 38.7 35.9 -2.8 32.1 -6.6
TO-Adj. Usage 16.2 13.2 -3.0 13.7 -2.4

Green’s production has been down over his last ten games, averaging 2.8 fantasy points less in each contest. His minutes are nearly identical during that stretch, but we have seen a much lower usage rate. The good news is that his recent play has led to a decrease in price. He is a borderline elite play tonight against the Magic, but with very few value plays on the board, it will be tough to fit him in your lineup if you are paying up for Curry or Westbrook.

Klay Thompson
klay-thompson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,200 Salary:$7,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 33.9 1.0 34.4 1.5
FPPG (FD) 30.3 33.9 3.6 39.9 9.6
TO-Adj. Usage 22.1 24.9 2.9 26.2 4.1

Thompson has treated me about as well as Anthony Davis has this season. Well, I should take that back, no one has treated me as poorly as the Brow. Thompson had a nice outing against the Heat last night and we know how streaky of a shooter he is. The Magic have been tough on shooting guards this season, but they may be without Victor Oladipo (who is the main reason why they have been efficient against the position).

Harrison Barnes
harrison-barnes-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,500 Salary:$5,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.4 31.3 1.9 29.1 -0.3
FPPG (FD) 21.2 20.3 -0.9 19.2 -1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 14.5 12.8 -1.7 11.7 -2.8

Barnes is not a sexy play, but he offers nice value tonight on FanDuel. His minutes are up over his last ten games and he draws a slightly above-average against the Magic. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but I don’t mind looking his way in cash games tonight on FD.

Orlando Magic

Record: 25-30 — Home: 15-14 — Last 10: 5-5

The Magic have won five of their last ten games and find themselves only 3.5 games out of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. Even though they are sizable favorites tonight at home against the Warriors, they are projected to score 107.3 points. Their implied team total is 7.2 points above their scoring average for the season.

The Warriors may be ranked third in defensive efficiency, but when the spread is under ten points, they are a team that we can confidently target players against. Golden State is ranked below the league average in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. The key situation to monitor here is the availability of Victor Oladipo. If he is unable to play, Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton, and Mario Hezonja would all see a fantasy boost.

Elite Plays

Nikola Vucevic
nikola-vucevic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 35.4 3.2 37.6 5.4
FPPG (FD) 34.6 40.7 6.1 45.6 11.1
TO-Adj. Usage 22.3 24.3 2.0 24.3 2.0

Over the last three weeks, no team in the NBA has allowed more fantasy points to centers than the Warriors. Vucevic is a strong play in all league formats tonight. Not only is the matchup in his favor, but he has been in great form, averaging 45.6 fantasy points over his last five games. Vucevic would also see a small usage boost if Victor Oladipo is unable to suit up.

Aaron Gordon
aaron-gordon-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 22.2 30.5 8.3 29.2 7.0
FPPG (FD) 19.6 30.8 11.2 31.9 12.3
TO-Adj. Usage 14.4 15.2 0.8 14.9 0.5

If you have read the Grind Down at all over the last month or so, you know how big of a Gordon fan I am. He has incredible athleticism and pretty nice touch for a power forward. We are starting to see him breakout, as he is averaging 31.9 fantasy points over his last five games. The minutes are always a concern, but I love the idea of targeting him in such a fast-paced game.

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$7,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.9 37.7 5.8 38.7 6.8
FPPG (FD) 28.4 33.9 5.5 33.6 5.2
TO-Adj. Usage 19.7 19.5 -0.2 19.0 -0.6

This pick obviously hinges on Oladipo’s status. He is dealing with a thigh bruise and is 50/50 for tonight’s game. If he is able to play, I’d feel comfortable using him in all league formats. He has been terrific in his last ten games, averaging 37.7 minutes and 33.9 fantasy points per contest. If Oladipo is ruled out, Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton, and Mario Hezonja (if he starts) would all become borderline elite plays.

Secondary Plays

Evan Fournier
evan-fournier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,900
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.78
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 33.8 1.8 40.6 8.6
FPPG (FD) 23.0 25.6 2.6 31.1 8.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.7 16.6 -0.1 16.4 -0.3

Fournier has been playing all of the minutes that he can handle recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 40.6 minutes and 31.1 fantasy points per contest. He is a borderline elite play regardless, but would obviously see a major boost if Victor Oladipo is unable to suit up. I’m high on the Magic tonight, so let’s hope this game stays within striking distance.

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 217.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Sprd 8.0 Vegas Sprd -8.0
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 112.5
Team Pace 96.50 Team Pace 101.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter O.J. Mayo Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Jabari Parker Miles Plumlee Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 7 19 26 26 Opp. Season 7 26 25 23 10
Last 3 Weeks 19 16 20 21 29 Last 3 Weeks 11 24 7 10 2

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 24-33 — Road: 8-24 — Last 10: 4-6

The Bucks have lost six of their last ten games, but have been more competitive since Jason Kidd made the lineup switch. Jabari Parker, Khris Middleton, and Giannis Antetokounmpo have all played well in the first unit, while Greg Monroe and Michael Carter-Williams have provided some much needed scoring off the bench. Tonight the Bucks head to Boston to take on the Celtics. Milwaukee is projected to score 104.5 points, which is 5.9 points above their scoring average.

The Celtics are another team that is ranked near the top of the league in defensive efficiency, but plays at such a quick pace that we can still target players against them. Jerryd Bayless and John Henson have both been out for an extended period of time. They are currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game, but don’t be surprised if they are ruled out again.

Elite Plays

Giannis Antetokounmpo
giannis-antetokounmpo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,100 Salary:$7,700
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.9 38.1 3.2 38.4 3.5
FPPG (FD) 31.5 36.7 5.2 42.9 11.4
TO-Adj. Usage 17.7 19.1 1.3 20.4 2.7

Giannis is coming off of a triple-double against the Lakers. He was highly owned that night, but his 69 fantasy points basically made the difference between cashing or not in double-ups and 50/50’s. The Celtics are very good against opposing backcourts, but they struggle to defend small forwards and froncourts. The only concern here is his elevated price point.

Jabari Parker
jabari-parker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$6,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.72 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.7 36.8 7.1 39.3 9.6
FPPG (FD) 21.5 25.7 4.2 33.2 11.7
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 15.4 -0.7 18.9 2.8

Parker is starting to break out right before our eyes. If you look at the table above, you will see a lot of green boxes. That means that his recent minutes and production are way up over his season averages. Over his last five games, Parker is averaging 33.2 fantasy points in 39.3 minutes per contest. He also draws a nice matchup against the Celtics, who do not defend the paint well.

Secondary Plays

Greg Monroe
greg-monroe-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,800 Salary:$7,100
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.10 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.5 31.3 0.8 31.1 0.6
FPPG (FD) 33.7 33.7 0.0 34.6 0.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.5 21.1 0.6 20.6 0.1

I will be looking elsewhere in cash games, but I like Monroe as a contrarian tournament play tonight. Everyone has been off of him ever since he started coming off the bench, but his minutes are actually up. We know that the Celtics struggle against centers and Monroe should have a low ownership tonight.

Khris Middleton
khris-middleton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,500 Salary:$7,200
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.81 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.4 38.3 1.9 40.1 3.7
FPPG (FD) 29.4 32.0 2.6 36.9 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.9 2.2 21.7 1.9

Like the rest of the Bucks, Middleton’s production is way up over his last five games. While that’s encouraging, I may pull a fade on Middleton tonight. He is projected to match up against Avery Bradley, who is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. In their first two meetings this season, Middleton has only averaged 16.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game.

Boston Celtics

Record: 33-25 — Home: 17-10 — Last 10: 6-4

The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and are now eight games above .500 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bucks in what should be a high-scoring game. The Celtics are 8-point favorites here with their team total set at 112.5 points, which is 6.4 points above their scoring average.

If you look at the Bucks pace on the season, they are ranked well below the league average. However, over their last five games they have averaged well over 100 possessions per contest. If that trend continues, the Bucks will be one of the top teams to target players against for the rest of the season. Kelly Olynyk remains out, which gives a small boost to the Celtics’ frontcourt. I will be fading Isaiah Thomas tonight. The Bucks are very tough on point guards and he has struggled against Milwaukee in their first two meetings this season.

Elite Plays

Jae Crowder
jae-crowder-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,200 Salary:$6,000
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.88
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.2 32.0 -0.2 34.3 2.1
FPPG (FD) 26.9 25.9 -1.0 32.9 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 15.7 15.0 -0.7 16.5 0.8

Crowder’s production dipped a bit at the first part of February, but he is back and producing at a high level once again. Over his last five games, he is averaging 32.9 fantasy points in 34.3 minutes per contest. He offers a high floor and a high ceiling tonight against the Bucks in what should be a fast-paced game.

Avery Bradley
avery-bradley-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.77
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 35.5 2.4 36.2 3.1
FPPG (FD) 23.6 24.8 1.2 24.6 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 17.3 17.1 -0.2 15.8 -1.5

Bradley may fly under the radar tonight, but dollar for dollar, I prefer him over his opponent (Khris Middleton). Bradley should see minutes in the mid to upper-30s tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked 26th against shooting guards this season.

Secondary Plays

Jared Sullinger
jared-sullinger-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$5,800
Position:PF Position:C
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.16
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.6 23.3 -0.3 26.5 2.9
FPPG (FD) 25.5 27.0 1.5 32.6 7.1
TO-Adj. Usage 18.6 20.1 1.6 19.6 1.0

I’m hesitant to list Sullinger as an elite play, even though his recent production justifies it. With Kelly Olynyk out, Sullinger has averaged 32.6 fantasy points in 26.5 minutes over his last five games. The only concern here is his playing time. He has to be extremely efficient in his minutes to reach value at this price point.

Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder New Orleans Pelicans
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 221.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Sprd -5.5 Vegas Sprd 5.5
Team Proj. 113.5 Team Proj. 108.0
Team Pace 99.20 Team Pace 98.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Dion Waiters Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Norris Cole Bryce Jones Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Alexis Ajinca
Opp. Season 14 25 12 16 29 Opp. Season 18 22 8 6 4
Last 3 Weeks 17 19 9 13 14 Last 3 Weeks 14 9 14 26 7

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 41-16 — Road: 16-9 — Last 10: 7-3

The Thunder have won seven of their last ten games, but are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight. That could help explain why they are only listed as 5.5-point favorites against the Pelicans. The Thunder are projected to score 113.5 points in this matchup, with their team total set at 113.5 points.

The Pelicans have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor this season, ranking 21st or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Some may see the back-to-back as a bad thing, but I actually think it helps solidify the minutes of both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. With the spread set at only 5.5 points, they should both see a full complement of minutes tonight.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook
russell-westbrook-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,900 Salary:$11,000
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.42 FP/Min:1.56
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.4 35.6 1.2 34.2 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 49.0 52.6 3.6 50.2 1.2
TO-Adj. Usage 28.6 26.5 -2.1 26.8 -1.8

Westbrook had an off night against the Mavericks, yet he still managed to score 49 fantasy points. His floor over the last two months has basically been 45 fantasy points with a ceiling that is much, much higher. Westbrook is my favorite play on the board tonight and I prefer him over Stephen Curry. He draws an elite matchup against the Pelicans and the spread is set at only 5.5 points.

Kevin Durant
kevin-durant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,200 Salary:$9,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 36.6 0.6 35.1 -0.9
FPPG (FD) 45.1 46.6 1.5 41.7 -3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 25.6 27.0 1.4 26.2 0.6

With Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, and Anthony Davis all on the schedule, Durant may get overlooked tonight. His production has been down a little recently, but his price has come down as well. Durant also draws a favorable matchup against the Pelicans in what should be a very high scoring affair.

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka
serge-ibaka-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,700 Salary:$5,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 31.6 -1.0 31.9 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 25.7 23.1 -2.6 26.4 0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.7 14.3 -0.5 16.6 1.9

I always hate using Ibaka, but he’s in consideration tonight against the Pelicans. If he can stay out of foul trouble, he should see big minutes tonight, as he will be tasked with defending Anthony Davis. Ibaka has been in decent form over his last five games, averaging 26.4 fantasy points in 31.9 minutes per contest.

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 22-34 — Home: 15-12 — Last 10: 4-6

The Pelicans have lost six of their last ten games, but have played much better over the last month of play. They are expected to keep tonight’s game against the Thunder close, which helps the fantasy appeal of both teams. The Pelicans are projected to score 108 points, which is 5.6 points above their scoring average on the season.

The Thunder have been a slightly above average team on the defensive end of the floor this season. They are ranked 14th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Vegas doesn’t seem too concerned with the matchup though, as the Pelicans are projected to score well over their season average.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis
anthony-davis-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,200 Salary:$10,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.31
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.7 36.8 1.1 36.8 1.1
FPPG (FD) 44.3 48.1 3.8 49.1 4.8
TO-Adj. Usage 24.4 26.6 2.2 26.4 2.0

After putting up 59 points and 20 rebounds against the Pistons, Davis came crashing back down to Earth against the Wizards. Things appear to be looking up though, as he is starting to rack up those peripheral stats that made him a fantasy superstar last season. Davis also has a lot to play for the rest of the season, as he could lose out on $23 million if he doesn’t make the All-NBA team.

Jrue Holiday
jrue-holiday-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,500
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.06 FP/Min:1.15
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.5 30.8 4.3 32.0 5.5
FPPG (FD) 28.2 36.6 8.5 40.9 12.7
TO-Adj. Usage 25.1 29.2 4.1 29.2 4.1

Holiday’s usage rate over the last month of play nearly rivals that of Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins. While he isn’t going to play 35+ minutes, he should continue to rack up statistics while he is on the floor. Over his last five games, he is averaging 40.9 fantasy points per contest. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Thunder.

Secondary Plays

Ryan Anderson
ryan-anderson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,300
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.91
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 27.3 -3.4 24.5 -6.2
FPPG (FD) 25.9 19.3 -6.6 18.6 -7.4
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 19.4 -0.5 21.2 1.3

Omer Asik has been ruled out for the next couple of weeks, which should give a small boost to Anderson. He played well in Asik’s absence the other night, scoring 27 fantasy points in 25 minutes of action. I’m expecting his minute total to be closer to 30 tonight against the Thunder in a game where they will need his scoring.

Brooklyn Nets at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM

Brooklyn Nets Phoenix Suns
brooklynnba Vegas Total 208.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd -2.0 Vegas Sprd 2.0
Team Proj. 105.3 Team Proj. 103.3
Team Pace 96.70 Team Pace 100.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Donald Sloan Wayne Ellington Joe Johnson Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Kris Humphries Alex Len
Opp. Season 29 29 30 12 7 Opp. Season 27 20 21 20 21
Last 3 Weeks 28 30 26 9 19 Last 3 Weeks 20 20 16 18 20

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 15-42 — Road: 4-20 — Last 10: 3-7

The Nets have won three of their last ten games, so I guess we can consider them to be in average form. They have not fared well on the road this season, but they could potentially pick up a win tonight against the Suns. The Nets are listed as 2-point favorites with their team total set at 105.3 points, which is 8.7 points above their scoring average.

The Suns have been a bottom three defense for the better part of a month now. On the season, they are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. As strange as it sounds, it could be a good time to load up on the Nets, in both cash games and GPPs.

Elite Plays

Thaddeus Young
thaddeus-young-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,700
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.93 FP/Min:0.99
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 34.5 1.7 34.7 1.9
FPPG (FD) 30.5 30.7 0.1 30.0 -0.6
TO-Adj. Usage 18.2 16.3 -1.9 16.8 -1.5

Young is one of my favorite power forward options tonight. I’d obviously like to get up to Anthony Davis if possible, but it will be difficult with such little value in this six game slate. Young is affordable, he comes into this game in good form, and he draws a nice matchup against the Suns, who have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season.

Donald Sloan
donald-sloan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,600 Salary:$4,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.8 27.5 6.7 28.6 7.8
FPPG (FD) 15.8 20.3 4.5 23.3 7.5
TO-Adj. Usage 13.9 13.5 -0.5 13.9 0.0

It doesn’t feel right recommending Sloan as an elite play, but at the moment, he is my favorite value play on the board. He has been productive over his last five games and he is averaging just under 30 minutes during that stretch. At his price, I’m pretty sure I could come close to reaching value against the Suns in 30 minutes.

Secondary Plays

Brook Lopez
brook-lopez-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,900 Salary:$7,700
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.07 FP/Min:1.14
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.8 35.6 1.8 34.1 0.3
FPPG (FD) 36.0 40.6 4.6 40.5 4.5
TO-Adj. Usage 22.8 23.3 0.5 23.6 0.8

The one position that the Suns have been tough on this season has been centers. The fantasy appeal of Lopez hinges on the availability of Alex Len and Tyson Chandler, who are both solid low post defenders. If Len and Chandler are both ruled out, I would bump Lopez up to an elite play tonight, as the Suns don’t have anyone else that can match up against him.

Phoenix Suns

Record: 14-43 — Home: 10-20 — Last 10: 0-10

The Suns have lost each of their last 12 games. Luckily, they have the perfect matchup to end their losing streak. Tonight they host the visiting Nets, who are only 4-20 on the road this season. The Suns are small underdogs here, but they are projected to score 103.3 points, which is markedly higher than their scoring average (which is a common theme in tonight’s slate).

The Nets are always a matchup that I try to exploit in daily fantasy basketball. On the season, they are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Alex Len and Tyson Chandler are both questionable for tonight’s game. If they are ruled out, it could open the door for some great value plays in the Suns’ frontcourt. If Len is able to suit up and if he draws another start, he is a borderline elite play in all league formats.

Elite Plays

Devin Booker
devin-booker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,900 Salary:$5,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.66 FP/Min:0.73
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.5 33.1 9.6 30.2 6.7
FPPG (FD) 15.5 23.1 7.6 18.9 3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.6 18.1 1.5 16.3 -0.3

Booker has not been sharp in his last five games, but the Suns have had some difficult matchups. I expect him to bounce back tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 20th against shooting guards this season. Booker should see minutes in the mid-30s and he should continue to have a high usage rate in this offense.

P.J. Tucker
p.j.-tucker-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,400 Salary:$4,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.62 FP/Min:0.65
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.0 36.2 6.2 35.3 5.3
FPPG (FD) 18.5 19.7 1.2 18.9 0.4
TO-Adj. Usage 9.9 9.6 -0.4 10.2 0.3

Tucker is one of those players that can play 40 minutes and score 12 fantasy points. That’s certainly in his range of outcomes tonight, but it’s hard to pass on any player that should see close to 40 minutes against the Nets. Tucker is also affordable on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Secondary Plays

Mirza Teletovic
mirza-teletovic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,200 Salary:$4,800
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.8 22.6 3.8 25.2 6.4
FPPG (FD) 15.9 19.0 3.1 23.5 7.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.2 20.4 1.2 20.1 0.9

Teletovic is a nice value play either way, but would see a major boost if Alex Len and/or Tyson Chandler are ruled out tonight. Mirza has played well over his last five games, averaging 23.5 fantasy points per contest. He is instant offense off the bench and he should find some success against his former team.

Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM

Houston Rockets Portland Trail Blazers
houstonnba Vegas Total 222.0 portlandnba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 108.8 Team Proj. 113.3
Team Pace 99.70 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Josh Smith Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Al-Farouq Aminu Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 17 17 5 21 20 Opp. Season 16 23 28 30 18
Last 3 Weeks 2 26 1 12 24 Last 3 Weeks 3 11 27 29 13

Houston Rockets

Record: 28-29 — Road: 12-16 — Last 10: 3-7

The Rockets are starting to fall apart at the seams. They have lost seven of their last ten games and would not make the playoffs if the season ended today. They really need a win to turn their season around. Tonight they take on the red-hot Blazers in what should be a close, high-scoring game. The Rockets are projected to score 108.8 points, which is 3.3 points above their scoring average.

The Blazers have played some great defense over the last few weeks and are now ranked 18th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Pace trumps all though, as the Rockets still have a high team total tonight.

Elite Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,900 Salary:$10,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.24 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.4 37.0 -0.4 38.9 1.5
FPPG (FD) 46.5 50.9 4.5 53.7 7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 27.4 28.7 1.3 29.6 2.2

For whatever reason, Harden loves facing the Blazers. In their three meetings last season, Harden averaged 55.1 fantasy points per game. In their three meetings this season, he has averaged 60.2 fantasy points. In terms of prioritizing superstars, I’d probably rank them in the following order: Westbrook, Harden, Davis, Durant, and then Curry.

Dwight Howard
dwight-howard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,400
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.04 FP/Min:1.12
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.4 31.7 -0.7 36.2 3.8
FPPG (FD) 33.9 32.2 -1.7 37.6 3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 15.1 16.6 1.5 17.0 1.9

Howard has really played well over his last five games, averaging 37.6 fantasy points in 36.2 minutes per contest. His price has come up a bit on FanDuel, but he is still far too cheap on DraftKings. Given the lack of options at the position, he is an elite play on both sites. Howard has also had good success against the Blazers this season, averaging 42.1 fantasy points in their first three meetings.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 30-27 — Home: 19-11 — Last 10: 9-1

The Blazers have won nine of their last ten games and are now three games above .500 on the season. They draw one of the most favorable matchups in all of daily fantasy basketball. The Blazers are projected to score 113.3 points against the Rockets, which is the third highest team total on the board and 9.8 points above their scoring average.

The Rockets play at a fast pace, they don’t rebound the ball well, and they have allowed the fourth most fantasy points of any team in the NBA this season. The Blazers’ offense sees a sizable boost as a whole, but there are really only two fantasy options on my radar here.

Elite Plays

Damian Lillard
damian-lillard-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$9,500 Salary:$9,700
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.0 35.9 -0.1 36.6 0.6
FPPG (FD) 40.5 45.5 4.9 50.5 10.0
TO-Adj. Usage 27.8 29.3 1.6 31.7 3.9

Lillard has been on an absolute tear over his last five games, averaging 50.5 fantasy points in 36.6 minutes per contest. He has basically been a freight train, running over anything that crosses his path. He is an elite play again tonight against the Rockets in a game that should be both close and high-scoring.

Secondary Plays

C.J. McCollum
c-j-mccollum-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,600 Salary:$7,500
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.0 34.6 -0.4 34.5 -0.5
FPPG (FD) 32.4 34.2 1.9 36.2 3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 24.0 24.2 0.2 25.8 1.8

McCollum struggled in his last outing against the Rockets, but we should throw that game out the window. He has really played well over his last five games, averaging 36.2 fantasy points in 34.5 minutes per contest. He also draws a terrific matchup against James Harden, who is arguably the worst defender in the NBA.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious