NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-11-10 03:58:35

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Los Angeles Lakers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		221.0					Vegas Total		221.0
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		105.5					Implied Team Total		115.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.4					Pace Projection +/-		4.2
Projected Starters	Lonzo Ball	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Brandon Ingram	Kyle Kuzma	Brook Lopez		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Otto Porter	Markieff Morris	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	16	10	30	13	3		DvP	24	24	4	25	13
DRPM	-0.83	-0.94	0.03	1.54	1.33		DRPM	N/A	-1.01	-2.88	N/A	0.37

Los Angeles Lakers

Notable Injuries

None

After two and three game slates the last few Thursdays, we should be ecstatic to see five games on the schedule tonight. After losing to the Celtics in Boston, the Lakers have to travel to Washington D.C. to take on the Wizards in the second half of a back-to-back. While they do come into the game as large underdogs, the Lakers have plenty of upside against a team that is ranked eighth in pace of play and 24th in points allowed per game. Los Angeles has an implied total of 105.5 points, which is identical to their average points per game this season.

Lonzo Ball had his best game in two weeks last night against the Celtics, scoring 37 fantasy points in 38 minutes. His true shooting (36%) is horrendous, which is hurting his game as a whole because defenders aren’t respecting his shot. He has a different style of play, but defenses are treating him like they do Rajon Rondo where they are daring him to shoot. He did play well in his first meeting against John Wall, but this is the second half of a back-to-back in a game where the Lakers are double-digit underdogs. I’d rather play Jordan Clarkson off the bench, who is finally seeing 20+ minutes consistently. Over his last three games, he is averaging 24 minutes and 31 fantasy points per game.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has played at least 34 minutes in each of his last four games and has topped 23 fantasy points in each of those outings. He provides a high floor at a relatively cheap price point. The value range at shooting guard is loaded, but KCP is right in the mix with Clarkson, J.J. Redick, and Buddy Hield. Brandon Ingram continues to play all of the minutes that he can handle. He has sneaky upside in an uptempo game against Washington, who has historically struggled against wing players.

Kyle Kuzma has played at least 34 minutes in the three games that Larry Nance has missed. We should expect another heavy workload tonight, although his price is no longer at an auto-play level. Dollar for dollar, I actually prefer Julius Randle. He dominated in limited minutes again last night and should have earned himself a few more minutes tonight. Randle has an elite 1.27 FP/min this season. Brook Lopez only played 17 minutes last night, so he should be fresh for this game if you want to look his way as a low owned tournament play.

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 105.5 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.5 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (7 of 10)

Matchup vs. Washington Wizards

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.6 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle

Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma, Brook Lopez (GPP)

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries

None

The Wizards are looking to get back to .500 at home on the year with a win over the Lakers. They come into the game as 10-point favorites. While there’s a chance this game could turn into a blowout, the reward outweighs the risk in this matchup. On the season, the Lakers are ranked third in pace of play and 20th in points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied total of 115.5 points, which is the second highest of the slate and 4.1 points above their season average.

John Wall was the ultimate chalk the first time he faced the Lakers this season and he flopped, scoring only 34 fantasy points and falling way short of salary expectations. I’ll chalk it up to a bad game rather than the matchup, as the Lakers are ranked 24th against point guards on the season. If we see that Wall is going to be low owned, I like him as a pivot off of James Harden and LeBron James in large-field tournaments. Bradley Beal is also viable in tournaments, but he should draw the defense of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. For cash games, I’m looking to pay up or pay down at shooting guard.

Otto Porter production has fallen off ever since Markieff Morris returned to the lineup. In his last three games, Porter is averaging only 27 fantasy points. Until his price come down, he’s a deep GPP flier at best. The same goes for Kelly Oubre off the bench. Morris might be my favorite point-per-dollar target from Washington tonight. He played 27 minutes on Tuesday night and could see 28-30 tonight. At his price point, he offers great value in all formats. Marcin Gortat has played 28 or fewer minutes in three of his last five games. While I like his price point, I prefer other centers in this slate.

Washington Wizards Offense

Points Per Game: 111.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 115.5 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (4 of 10)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.3 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.3 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall (GPP), Bradley Beal (GPP), Markieff Morris

Secondary Plays – John Wall (Cash), Bradley Beal (Cash)

New Orleans Pelicans at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		214.5					Vegas Total		214.5
			Vegas Spread		5.0					Vegas Spread		-5.0
			Implied Team Total		104.8					Implied Team Total		109.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.0					Pace Projection +/-		1.4
Projected Starters	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Dante Cunningham	Anthony Davis	DeMarcus Cousins		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	Norman Powell	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	19	5	18	9		DvP	4	21	27	17	5
DRPM	0.62	-2.21	-1.29	0.84	0.71		DRPM	1.40	-1.63	-0.47	3.65	0.57

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

None

I don’t want to jinx it, but it looks like a pretty quiet night on the injury front. Every time I started to feel good about a lineup yesterday, more news would break and I would have to start from scratch. The Pelicans have been a two-man show this season and so far, so good. They are looking for their fourth win in a row tonight, as they take on the Raptors. As far as the matchup is concerned, this is far from ideal. Toronto is ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Pelicans’ implied total of 104.8 points is the second lowest on the board.

Jrue Holiday is an excellent player, but he has taken a backseat in this offense. Point guards with usage rates below 20% are rarely on my radar unless they bring a lot to the table in terms of peripheral stats. The one positive with Holiday is his playing time. He is averaging 38 minutes per game, which gives him a fairly high floor. He’s fine in cash games if you need someone at his price point, but I don’t consider him a core play. The other role players — E’Twaun Moore, Jameer Nelson, and Dante Cunningham are GPP darts at best.

The real question is whether we want to roster Anthony Davis and/or DeMarcus Cousins tonight. On paper, this appears to be a mediocre matchup at best. Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas are both above-average defenders and the Raptors are ranked 17th in rebounding differential. We know the offense is going to flow through these two superstars, but I’m not expecting a high scoring game like we typically see from the Pelicans. Toronto is typically very good at home. Davis and Cousins are both elite plays at their respective positions, but not in the context of the entire slate. The hope with these two isn’t that they flop completely (highly unlilkely), it’s that they get outscored by the likes of James Harden and LeBron James.

New Orleans Pelicans Offense

Points Per Game: 106.3 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -1.6 (10 of 10)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (Cash), Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

None

The Raptors have been a tough team to peg this season. They have an ever-changing rotation and despite a 6-4 record, they haven’t exactly lived up to fantasy expectations. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pelicans. While New Orleans likes to push the pace (8th), they are ranked ninth in defensive efficiency and have the best frontcourt in basketball. Toronto is listed as a 5-point favorite with an implied total of 109.8 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate.

Kyle Lowry is the ugly duckling in every movie about high school kids. He doesn’t look pretty right now (29 fantasy points per game), but he’s about to blossom into something special. His matchup against Jrue Holiday isn’t great, but I’m not overly concerned about it. He has scored at least 34 fantasy points in four of his last eight games and his price is at one of its cheapest price points we have seen in years. I like to buy low and sell high on players in DFS and Lowry is a great opportunity to do just that.

DeMar DeRozan will likely draw a matchup against Dante Cunningham. While he’s not a lockdown defender, he’s certainly better than E’Twaun Moore. DeRozan is always fine in cash games, but like I said with Bradley Beal, I’m either going up to James Harden at shooting guard or going down to the value range. Norman Powell is intriguing in tournaments. He’s volatile and tough to predict, but he has an exploitable matchup and he’s played at least 27 minutes in four straight games.

Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are monsters on both ends of the floor and they draw a lot of fouls. Targeting bigs against the Pelicans always comes with a risk, but can be a nice reward for those willing to brave the elements. Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner both turned in big fantasy outings against New Orleans the other night. If they can stay out of foul trouble, Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas should both see a few extra minutes. In his last two games against Davis, Ibaka has scored 33 and 30 fantasy points. Meanwhile, Valanciunas has scored 47 and 46 fantasy points in his last two games against Cousins.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 108.9 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8 (6 of 10)

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (8 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, Jonas Valanciunas

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, Serge Ibaka

Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Houston Rockets
			Vegas Total		228.0					Vegas Total		228.0
			Vegas Spread		5.5					Vegas Spread		-5.5
			Implied Team Total		111.3					Implied Team Total		116.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.0
Projected Starters	LeBron James	J.R. Smith	Iman Shumpert	Jae Crowder	Kevin Love		Projected Starters	James Harden	Eric Gordon	Trevor Ariza	Ryan Anderson	Clint Capela
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	12	16	9	10	17		DvP	27	26	23	19	16
DRPM	-1.81	-0.13	1.54	-0.16	1.25		DRPM	1.57	-0.77	-0.44	1.37	1.93

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Derrick Rose (Out)

The Cavaliers are struggling to beat bad teams at home right now. Over the last few years, I’ve wanted to play LeBron James and company in DFS, but they were always such large favorites and they always had such a good defense that it was tough to feel good about playing them. This season, the exact opposite is true. They are rarely big favorites and they have one of the worst defenses in basketball. This is bad for Cleveland fans, but great for fantasy production. They come into tonight’s game against the Rockets with an implied total of 111.3 points, which is the third highest on the board.

There is a starting point guard that has eight more turnovers than assists this season. It’s unfortunate that we don’t get to see him tonight, as Derrick Rose has been ruled out with an ankle injury. The Cavaliers have already announced Iman Shumpert as the starter, which actually works out well in tonight’s matchup against James Harden and the Rockets. Shumpert is a low usage player that is only averaging 0.61 FP/min. He’s a serviceable value, but I would temper expectations.

LeBron is close to a must play right now. He is responsible for such a large portion of the offense and he’s being asked to play 38-40 minutes a night. As long as the Cavaliers can keep this game close, James should have another big fantasy outing. Jae Crowder has been quiet in his last two games, but this is a perfect bounce-back matchup. He’ll square off against Ryan Anderson in game where he could play 30 minutes. I’ll be buying low on Crowder in tournaments.

The Cavaliers seemed hesitant to play Kevin Love big minutes at the start of the season, but he has seen at least 34 minutes in three of his last five games. If he sees anything over 30 tonight, I like his chances to reach value. Clint Capela is a good rim protector, but he does not defend the three-point line well. This will be a matchup that the Cavaliers go to early and often. Dwyane Wade has played 26 and 32 minutes off the bench in the last two games. He is an excellent tournament play that should fly under the radar.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.9 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.3 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (5 of 10)

Matchup vs. Houston Rockets

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.3 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.3 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love, Dwyane Wade (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Iman Shumpert, J.R. Smith, Dwyane Wade (Cash)

Houston Rockets

Notable Injuries

Luc Mbah a Moute (Questionable)

The Rockets should be well rested, as they haven’t played since Sunday when they hung 137 points on the Utah Jazz. They draw a much better matchup tonight, as they square off against a Cavaliers’ team that is ranked 28th in points allowed per game and dead last in defensive efficiency. Cleveland is aging and it is showing on the defensive end of the floor. Houston comes into the game with an implied total of 116.8 points, which is the highest on the board and seven points above their season average.

Basketball is a funny sport. James Harden had been struggling with his shot all season and then he faces the toughest defense in basketball. He went on to score 56 actual points and 83 fantasy points. My goal tonight is to fit Harden and LeBron into as many lineups as possible. In their last two meetings, Harden has scored 75 and 77 fantasy points. The usage is there and he should have plenty of confidence in his shot. I like to give Harden a boost anytime he is facing a team that doesn’t have an elite rim protector and apologies to Kevin Love, but he’s not someone we should be scared of. If I can only have one superstar tonight, it’s Harden.

The rest of the Rockets are secondary plays in my eyes. Eric Gordon has cooled off lately and his salary hasn’t come down enough for me to consider him anything other than a boom or bust tournament option. I have yet to roster Trevor Ariza this season. I’m extremely proud of myself, as I used to get sucked into his playing time on a regular basis. It’s the small things in life that should give us the most satisfaction. Ariza could see a few extra minutes tonight defending LeBron if you want to give him a look on DraftKings ($4,700).

Ryan Anderson continues to struggle at home. Since the start of last season, he is averaging 19 fantasy points per game at home and 26 on the road. He’ll likely face Jae Crowder, who is an excellent defender. I’ll take P.J. Tucker straight up over Anderson in this spot. I wouldn’t be surprised if he plays 30 minutes to help slow down Lebron. Clint Capela is only averaging 24 minutes per game this season, which requires him to be extremely efficient to reach value. I don’t hate the matchup offensively, but Love is going to pull him away from the basket on defense, which could lower his rebounding projection.

Houston Rockets Offense

Points Per Game: 109.9 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 116.8 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 6.8 (1 of 10)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 113.9 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 112.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.1 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza (DK), Eric Gordon (GPP), P.J. Tucker

Philadelphia 76ers at Sacramento Kings – 10:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Sacramento Kings
			Vegas Total		206.5					Vegas Total		206.5
			Vegas Spread		-6.5					Vegas Spread		6.5
			Implied Team Total		106.5					Implied Team Total		100.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-3.3					Pace Projection +/-		4.1
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	J.J. Redick	Dario Saric	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	George Hill	Garrett Temple	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Zach Randolph	Willie Cauley-Stein
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	19	13	3	16	30		DvP	6	30	7	5	29
DRPM	0.60	-0.33	N/A	-1.06	1.06		DRPM	N/A	-1.80	-0.80	4.38	2.30

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries

Jerryd Bayless (Out)

The Sixers have won five games in a row and are currently sitting in fourth place in the East. I would love to see them take that next step and make the playoffs this year. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on a Kings’ team that is trending in the other direction. While the Kings play at the second slowest pace this season, they are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency and 29th in rebounding differential. The Sixers’ implied total of 106.5 points is just slightly below their average points per game.

Ben Simmons just continues to amaze. He has scored at least 50 fantasy points in four of his last five games. We keep saying that he feels overpriced, but that’s only when we compare it to his salary earlier in the season. If we look strictly at the his production, there is no reason that we should be fading him at this price, especially on DraftKings ($9,000). J.J. Redick is an interesting value play. He’s flown under the radar this season, despite averaging 24 fantasy points per game. His minutes are locked in with Jerryd Bayless out. T.J. McConnell has been great off the bench, but I like to see him priced below $5,000.

Dario Saric has scored at least 20 fantasy points in four of his last five games. His minutes are volatile, but the Sixers are willing to give him more time when he’s playing well. He’s still viable on FanDuel at a price of $4,100. Robert Covington is still too cheap on DraftKings ($5,500). With Bayless out, he should see minutes in the low 30s. Joel Embiid should be back in the lineup tonight and there’s no reason to think that he won’t pick up right where he left off. He has 30-minute upside against a Kings’ defense that is ranked dead last against centers. For some odd reason, he is only $8,000 on DraftKings.

Philadelphia 76ers Offense

Points Per Game: 107.3 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (9 of 10)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -6.0 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons (DK), Joel Embiid (DK), Robert Covington (DK)

Secondary Plays – Ben Simmons (FD & FDRFT), Joel Embiid (FD & FDRFT), Robert Covington (FD & FDRFT), J.J. Redick, T.J. McConnell, Dario Saric (FD)

Sacramento Kings

Notable Injuries

None

The Kings picked up a nice win over the Thunder in a game where they were down double-digits in the first quarter. They have been a frustrating team from a DFS perspective because their rotation is inconsistent and they have been on the wrong end of too many blowouts. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Sixers, who are ranked fourth in pace of play and 21st in points allowed per game. The Kings have the lowest implied total on the board, but it’s actually six points above their season average.

As long as George Hill and De’Aaron Fox are both healthy and in a timeshare, the two will be tough to predict on a nightly basis. We only have so many point guard spots to use each night, so I tend to fade the ones that don’t have solidified minutes. Buddy Hield is also seeing inconsistent minutes, but he is averaging 30 fantasy points in his last two games. He should benefit from a pace-up game against the Sixers, who are ranked dead last against shooting guards this season.

Zach Randolph has surprisingly been a nice addition to the Kings, at least when you look at the stat sheet. He is averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute and is still only $4,700 on FanDuel. I actually think he makes a decent fade here due to ownership, especially since Julius Randle is $200 cheaper. The big issue with Sacramento is the rotation. I don’t expect anyone to play over 28 minutes tonight, which makes it tough to rely on any of their players.

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 93.8 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 6.2 (2 of 10)

Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 105.2 (4 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Zach Randolph (FD), Buddy Hield (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets – 10:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder							Denver Nuggets
			Vegas Total		213.0					Vegas Total		213.0
			Vegas Spread		-1.0					Vegas Spread		1.0
			Implied Team Total		107.0					Implied Team Total		106.0
			Pace Projection +/-		0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.0
Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Andre Roberson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams		Projected Starters	Jamal Murray	Gary Harris	Wilson Chandler	Paul Millsap	Nikola Jokic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	26	6	29	22	2		DvP	9	2	6	6	15
DRPM	-1.82	-2.44	-1.73	3.29	2.00		DRPM	-0.59	2.47	0.13	-1.49	1.42

Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

None

The final game of the night should be a fun one. The Thunder are still working out the kinks of their new squad, but are still getting a lot of respect from Vegas. They are actually favored tonight against the Nuggets in Denver. The total of the game is set at 213 points, so there should be plenty of fantasy production to go around. The Thunder have an implied total of 107 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate and 4.5 points above their season average.

Russell Westbrook isn’t going to score 70 fantasy points every night like he did a year ago, but we shouldn’t just write him off. He is averaging an elite 1.38 FP/min with a true usage of 32%. He draws arguably one of the best matchups on the board, as he’ll square off against a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 26th against point guards. I expect Gary Harris to slide over onto Westbrook, but that doesn’t concern me. I’ll always play Westbrook in uptempo games. I have him ranked below James Harden and LeBron James on my list of superstars to target, but I actually prefer Westbrook over Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.

Paul George and Carmelo Anthony are both firmly in play against a defense that is ranked 29th against small forwards and 22nd against power forwards. We can’t really give an edge to either one based on matchups alone because the two are interchangeable, but if we price shop, George is the better buy on DraftKings and Anthony is the better buy on FanDuel.

I have overlooked Jerami Grant for too long. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in four of his last six games and should see minutes in the mid to upper-20s tonight. He’s only $3,400 on DraftKings and really helps to afford the likes of James and Harden. Steven Adams has cooled off recently and draws a difficult matchup against the GOAT, Nikola Jokic.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 102.5 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (3 of 10)

Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.6 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (GPP), Paul George (DK), Carmelo Anthony (FD), Jerami Grant (DK)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (Cash), Paul George (FD & FDRFT), Carmelo Anthony (DK & FDRFT), Jerami Grant (FD & FDRFT)

Denver Nuggets

Notable Injuries

None

If you haven’t been upset with a player from the Nuggets at some point this season, then odds are that you haven’t been playing them. They’ve been on both sides of blowouts, they’ve underperformed offensively, and their game-by-game production has been wildly inconsistent. While they are playing at home, I’m not a fan of their matchup against the Thunder, who are ranked second in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Nuggets typically have one of the highest implied totals on the board when playing at home, but they have the fourth lowest tonight.

I played Emmanuel Mudiay in cash the other night. There, I said it. Did it work out? Of course not. I figured that he’d play well against the Nets (wrong) and that he’d see extra minutes in a blowout (wrong again). This is exactly why I don’t like using point guards that split time. Right when you think you know what’s going to happen, you are wrong. Jamal Murray and Mudiay are GPP plays until one gets hurt or starts seeing the lion’s share of the point guard minutes.

While it has been easier to predict the minutes of Denver’s wing players, the production has been all over the map. Gary Harris and Wilson Chandler don’t have the usage and Will Barton has scored most of his production in garbage time the last two games. All three are fades for me tonight. Paul Millsap has been a fantasy dud in the first month of the season, but he does have two 40+ fantasy point outings already. I don’t hate the matchup and his price on DraftKings is tempting in tournaments.

Nikola Jokic went bonkers against the Nets, scoring a career high 41 points to go along with 12 rebounds, five assists, two blocks, and two steals. He’s basically matchup-proof at this point, so I’m not worried about Steven Adams. I am worried about the $10,000 price tag on FanDuel. If you want exposure to Jokic, I’d get it over on DraftKings ($8,600).

Denver Nuggets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.5 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (8 of 10)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.1 (18 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nikola Jokic (DK)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Jokic (FD & FDRFT), Paul Millsap (DK), Emmanuel Mudiay (FD GPP)