NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 30th
Jump to Page 1 2
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Oklahoma City Thunder at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.5 |  | Vegas Total | 218.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -3.0 | Vegas Spread | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 110.8 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Terrance Ferguson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Tomas Satoransky | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 18 | 10 | 25 | 4 | 19 | DvP | 5 | 14 | 2 | 8 | 3 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 13 | 1 | 19 | 9 | DRPM Rat. | 4 | 19 | 7 | 24 | 21 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder weren’t expected to be buyers at the trade deadline, but that might change now that Andre Roberson has been ruled out for the rest of the season. If Oklahoma City truly has championship aspirations, they will need better shooting guards than Terrance Ferguson and Josh Huestis. Tonight the Thunder head to the nation’s capital to take on a Wizards’ team that is ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Thunder have an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the sixth highest of the slate and nearly five points above their season average.
Russell Westbrook is one of the top overall plays on the board tonight and it’s worth noting that this slate is loaded with value plays. There are a number of injuries that have opened up value, as well as the Blake Griffin trade to the Pistons. Westbrook has been in tremendous form over his last five games, averaging 37 minutes and 63 fantasy points per contest. He’s an elite play in all formats and one of my favorite spends at any position. With so many great value plays available, I have little to no interest in Ferguson or Huestis, even though they’ll have a bigger role moving forward.
Paul George should be locked into a 36-38 minute role tonight, although he does have a difficult individual matchup against Otto Porter. George can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and is viable in tournaments, but I’m not sure he’s going to make the final cut with my cash game lineup. Carmelo Anthony is one of those players that never stands out as an elite play, but is fine at power forward if you are stuck and need a player at his price point. Steven Adams offers a high floor, but we currently have to pay a premium for him. When we have slates this size, I’m typically looking for 6x production from players in the $6,000-$7,000 price range. I’m not sure Adams has that type of upside in a matchup against Marcin Gortat.
Notable Injuries
Andre Roberson (Out)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 106.3 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.8 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (4 of 18)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $12,500 | $11,700 | 54.4 | 8.2 | 36.0 | 1.0 | 1.51 | 35.2% | 13 | 18 | 20 | |
| Terrance Ferguson | $3,500 | $3,400 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 0.48 | 10.4% | 8 | 10 | 13 | |
| Paul George | $8,400 | $8,200 | 37.9 | 5.0 | 36.4 | -0.3 | 1.04 | 22.9% | 12 | 25 | 1 | |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,100 | $6,200 | 29.4 | 0.9 | 32.6 | -0.4 | 0.90 | 22.2% | 22 | 4 | 19 | |
| Steven Adams | $7,100 | $6,500 | 31.1 | 3.0 | 32.1 | 0.6 | 0.97 | 14.4% | 15 | 19 | 9 | |
| Jerami Grant | $3,600 | $3,400 | 15.8 | -5.3 | 20.2 | -3.8 | 0.78 | 13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Raymond Felton | $3,500 | $3,400 | 14.5 | 0.7 | 16.9 | -2.0 | 0.86 | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Paul George (Cash), Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are going to be without their star point guard for the next six to eight weeks, as he is scheduled to have surgery on his knee tomorrow. To make matters worse, they draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The crazy part is that the Wizards are projected to score 107.8 points, which is actually higher than their season average. Vegas is expecting a shootout in this one and we should take note of it.
In the last game with Wall out, Tomas Satoransky and Tim Frazier both stepped up. Satoransky scored 24 fantasy points in 21 minutes and Frazier scored 39 fantasy points in 27 minutes. The Wizards will likely ride the hot hand with these two, which makes it tough to predict their fantasy production on a nightly basis. I will give the edge to the starter, although I will be fading both tonight against Russell Westbrook. Bradley Beal has a 34% usage rate and averages 1.07 fantasy points per minutes with Wall off the floor this season. He also benefits from Andre Roberson being out, as he’ll now square off against the likes of Terrance Ferguson and Josh Huestis.
Otto Porter draws a difficult matchup against Paul George, although he should push for 35 minutes in this one. Given how inconsistent he has been all season, Porter is best suited as a tournament play tonight. Kelly Oubre would typically offer tournament appeal as well, but there are a handful of value plays at small forward that I would rather target in this slate. Markieff Morris draws the best matchup of the five starters and has been playing well recently, averaging 26 fantasy points over his last five games. Morris is an intriguing tournament play, but Montrezl Harrell and Anthony Tolliver are better point-per-dollar plays.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Out)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (10 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (11 of 18)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.1 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Satoransky | $4,500 | $4,500 | 12.7 | -0.3 | 16.4 | 1.7 | 0.78 | 14.6% | 9 | 5 | 4 | |
| Bradley Beal | $7,900 | $8,400 | 37.1 | 1.3 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 1.03 | 26.1% | 9 | 14 | 19 | |
| Otto Porter | $6,800 | $6,400 | 29.4 | -2.9 | 31.7 | -1.5 | 0.93 | 16.2% | 6 | 2 | 7 | |
| Markieff Morris | $5,500 | $5,500 | 21.0 | 4.8 | 25.5 | 2.8 | 0.82 | 16.0% | 16 | 8 | 24 | |
| Marcin Gortat | $3,900 | $4,700 | 24.0 | -8.5 | 26.5 | -7.4 | 0.90 | 13.6% | 1 | 3 | 21 | |
| Tim Frazier | $5,500 | $4,100 | 12.9 | 3.7 | 15.3 | -3.9 | 0.84 | 14.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,800 | $5,000 | 21.9 | -0.3 | 27.3 | 0.9 | 0.80 | 16.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Bradley Beal
Secondary Plays – Tomas Satoransky, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris
Minnesota Timberwolves at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.0 |  | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.0 | Vegas Spread | -6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 112.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | OG Anunoby | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 17 | DvP | 20 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 24 | 4 | 14 | 14 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 1 | 28 | 11 | 18 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games after losing to the Hawks last night. They have a much tougher matchup tonight, as they face a Raptors’ team that is ranked tenth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wolves have an implied total of only 106 points, which is the seventh lowest of the slate and three points below their season average.
Jeff Teague is priced down across the industry and grades out as a nice play in most projection models. The problem with Teague is twofold — he draws an awful matchup against Kyle Lowry and he’s been nursing an ankle injury. I hate to say it, but I would rather save a few hundred dollars and take a shot on Ricky Rubio against the Warriors. Jimmy Butler draws the best matchup of the five starters, as he’ll likely square off against DeMar DeRozan. I have no problem using Butler in tournaments, but I want to feel great about my players in slates this size. Butler doesn’t quite get the elite play treatment in this spot.
Andrew Wiggins has been in great form over the last few weeks, but some of that was aided by Teague and Butler missing a few games each. At this price point and in this matchup, I will look elsewhere at shooting guard. As I mentioned last night, Taj Gibson is always viable on FanDuel thanks to a high floor and a high ceiling. The play paid off last night and I don’t mind going back to the well tonight. The problem is that power forward is loaded with value in this slate. Karl-Anthony Towns is an easy fade in all formats. His minutes are trending in the wrong direction and his price hasn’t come down to reflect it.
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 109.1 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -3.1 (16 of 18)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.2 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $5,700 | $5,700 | $10,200 | 29.9 | -1.1 | 33.4 | -2.2 | 0.89 | 20.1% | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| Jimmy Butler | $9,000 | $8,800 | $14,900 | 41.0 | 0.8 | 36.9 | -1.1 | 1.11 | 23.8% | 24 | 11 | 24 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,200 | $6,300 | $11,900 | 29.7 | 5.2 | 36.1 | 0.9 | 0.82 | 21.5% | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,400 | $5,400 | $9,900 | 26.8 | 3.5 | 33.7 | -0.1 | 0.79 | 13.1% | 9 | 13 | 14 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,600 | $9,200 | $16,900 | 43.1 | -2.0 | 35.5 | -2.6 | 1.21 | 19.7% | 12 | 17 | 14 |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 16.5 | -0.9 | 18.0 | -3.0 | 0.92 | 14.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,800 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 15.6 | 7.1 | 18.9 | 2.1 | 0.83 | 23.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague, Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson (FD)
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are catching the Wolves at an opportune time, as they are playing their second road games in as many nights. The Wolves haven’t been great defensively this season, ranking 16th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. If the Raptors are able to control the pace of this game, their offense will see a nice boost as a whole in this matchup. Toronto comes into the game with an implied total of 112 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate.
Kyle Lowry draws a favorable matchup against Jeff Teague, he has a high usage rate, and he can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. At a price point under $8,000, he deserves consideration in all formats. I don’t consider Lowry a core play here, but I will certainly have some exposure to him in this slate. DeMar DeRozan’s price point on DraftKings ($7,700) is tempting, but targeting players that are facing Jimmy Butler is not a profitable long-term strategy. He is one of the best on-ball defenders in basketball, as evidenced by the #1 ranking in the DRPM column below.
As I have already mentioned, power forward is loaded with good options, which makes Serge Ibaka an easy fade given his matchup and recent form. I used to stream centers against the Wolves earlier in the year, but Karl-Anthony Towns has really stepped up his play defensively. At one point, he had the lowest DRPM of any center in basketball. At the moment, he’s right around the league average. Despite the high implied total, Lowry is really the only Raptors’ player that I am giving serious consideration to tonight.
Notable Injuries
Fred VanVleet (Questionable)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 111.1 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.0 (4 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.9 (10 of 18)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,700 | $7,400 | $14,500 | 35.0 | -2.4 | 32.8 | -1.2 | 1.07 | 21.8% | 20 | 20 | 24 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,500 | $7,700 | $13,900 | 39.2 | -4.8 | 34.5 | -1.7 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 27 | 15 | 1 |
| OG Anunoby | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 13.0 | 3.2 | 21.4 | -1.4 | 0.61 | 10.6% | 4 | 1 | 28 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,700 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 26.0 | -3.4 | 28.0 | 0.3 | 0.93 | 17.0% | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,900 | $5,600 | $11,300 | 24.7 | 8.8 | 21.3 | 2.1 | 1.16 | 18.1% | 23 | 7 | 18 |
| Delon Wright | $4,100 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 20.1 | -2.0 | 21.5 | 0.3 | 0.94 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jakob Poeltl | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 16.7 | -2.4 | 17.8 | 2.6 | 0.94 | 12.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK)
Brooklyn Nets at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Brooklyn Nets | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 109.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Quincy Acy | Tyler Zeller | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 24 | 13 | 15 | 11 | 9 | DvP | 28 | 19 | 13 | 24 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 19 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 28 | DRPM Rat. | 6 | 15 | 2 | 14 | 11 | |
Brooklyn Nets
The Nets will be without two key pieces in their rotation tonight, as Caris LeVert and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have already been ruled out. Tonight’s game against the Knicks has some shootout potential, as it features a five point spread and a total of 214.5 points. The Knicks are a slightly favorable matchup for fantasy production, ranking 17th in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency this season. The Nets have an implied total of 104.8 points, which is close to their season average.
With D’Angelo Russell on a minute restriction and LeVert ruled out, Spencer Dinwiddie should push for 30 minutes in a favorable matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 22nd in efficiency and 24th in DvP against point guards. The best part is that Dinwiddie’s price has fallen all the way down to $5,500 on FanDuel, which puts him near the top of my list of targets at point guard. Allen Crabbe has been quiet recently, but DeMarre Carroll is averaging 29 fantasy points over his last five games. He has an exploitable matchup and should push for 30+ minutes with Hollis-Jefferson out.
Notable Injuries
Caris LeVert (Out)
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Out)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (14 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.5 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $5,500 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 28.4 | -4.4 | 28.3 | 1.0 | 1.00 | 22.8% | 22 | 24 | 19 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 21.3 | -3.1 | 28.9 | -2.0 | 0.74 | 16.4% | 4 | 13 | 20 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $5,500 | $5,700 | $12,200 | 26.4 | 2.7 | 29.2 | 1.1 | 0.90 | 18.3% | 25 | 15 | 19 |
| Quincy Acy | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 12.7 | -0.5 | 19.6 | 2.5 | 0.65 | 12.6% | 3 | 11 | 5 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 15.1 | -3.1 | 17.0 | -4.5 | 0.89 | 15.2% | 12 | 9 | 28 |
| D’Angelo Russell | $4,700 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 27.7 | -21.0 | 24.9 | -8.7 | 1.11 | 31.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Joe Harris | $3,900 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 17.5 | 1.0 | 24.9 | 0.1 | 0.70 | 15.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (FD), DeMarre Carroll (FD)
Secondary Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie (DK), DeMarre Carroll (DK)
New York Knicks
If you are easily grossed out, don’t click on the link to see Kanter’s busted lip. That’s one of those pictures that I would have been better off not seeing. The Knicks draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nets, who are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Knicks have an implied total of 109.8 points, which is the eighth highest on the board and nearly five points above their season average.
Jarrett Jack has flashed some upside this season and draws an exploitable matchup tonight, but he’s more of a deep tournament play than a core target. Point guard is always one of the deepest positions and there are nine games on the schedule. Courtney Lee has played well recenlty, but I’ll side with Tim Hardaway in tournaments. He has shown 50 fantasy point type of upside this season and his ownership should be low on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
The Knicks’ frontcourt should feast tonight against the Nets, who are ranked 28th in efficiency against power forwards and 30th in fantasy points allowed to centers. Kristaps Porzingis has good splits at home throughout his career and is seemingly underpriced on DraftKings ($8,100) every night. He’s close to a core play for me tonight. Enes Kanter feels a bit overpriced across the industry, especially given the fact that he averages less than 30 fantasy points per game on the season.
Notable Injuries
Enes Kanter (Probable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (8 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (3 of 18)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $5,000 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 21.6 | -0.5 | 26.7 | -0.7 | 0.81 | 17.9% | 26 | 28 | 6 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,400 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 25.0 | 3.9 | 33.0 | 0.7 | 0.76 | 16.6% | 16 | 19 | 15 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,400 | $6,500 | $13,500 | 30.5 | 0.4 | 33.1 | -1.6 | 0.92 | 22.2% | 3 | 13 | 2 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $8,800 | $8,100 | $16,700 | 39.9 | -6.9 | 32.8 | -4.3 | 1.22 | 27.5% | 28 | 24 | 14 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,800 | $6,600 | $14,000 | 29.1 | 2.9 | 25.4 | 2.0 | 1.14 | 18.8% | 27 | 30 | 11 |
| Michael Beasley | $6,400 | $5,500 | $12,100 | 22.0 | 2.2 | 19.8 | 4.2 | 1.11 | 24.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $4,300 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 19.9 | -3.2 | 17.0 | -1.5 | 1.17 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Tim Hardaway (GPP), Kristaps Porzingis (DK)
Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway (Cash), Kristaps Porzingis (FD), Jarrett Jack (GPP), Courtney Lee (FD)
Sacramento Kings at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | New Orleans Pelicans | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.0 |  | Vegas Total | 215.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 8.0 | Vegas Spread | -8.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.5 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | Justin Jackson | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Skal Labissiere | Kosta Koufos | Projected Starters | Rajon Rondo | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 26 | 20 | 28 | 6 | DvP | 13 | 18 | 22 | 20 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 28 | 3 | 28 | 16 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 27 | 24 | 26 | 24 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are one of my least favorite teams to see on the schedule. Not only do they play at a snail’s pace and tend to be on the losing end of blowouts, but we rarely know who is actually going to play in a given game. Three of their players are listed as questionable with injuries and three more are listed as questionable with potential rest. This game tips off an hour after lock, so hopefully we’ll get an update before decisions have to be made on our end. This is certainly a favorable matchup, as the Pelicans are ranked 29th in points allowed per game this season. The Kings currently have the second highest projected point differential (+5.7) of the slate.
Without knowing the lineup and who is actually going to be on the floor, it’s tough to break the Kings down from a DFS standpoint. With that said, there should be plenty of minutes to go around for De’Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Buddy Hield. Bogdanovic is the safest of the three, while Hield will have revenge on his mind. Most of the value from the Kings will come from the frontcourt, but we have to take a wait and see approach tonight. With Willie Cauley-Stein out, there are minutes and usage open in the offense. If one or two of the other bigs are ruled out, it could really open the door for the rest of the frontcourt.
Notable Injuries
Willie Cauley-Stein (Out)
Frank Mason (Out)
Garrett Temple (Questionable)
Skal Labissiere (Questionable)
Malachi Richardson (Questionable)
Zach Randolph (Potential Rest)
Vince Carter (Potential Rest)
Kosta Koufos (Potential Rest)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 97.8 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (17 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 (2 of 18)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.6 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,700 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 21.5 | 3.5 | 26.8 | 0.6 | 0.80 | 21.5% | 19 | 19 | 28 |
| Justin Jackson | $3,600 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 17.8 | 4.7 | 0.54 | 13.6% | 30 | 26 | 3 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 20.6 | -1.5 | 27.1 | 4.6 | 0.76 | 17.5% | 15 | 20 | 28 |
| Skal Labissiere | $5,400 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 17.3 | 8.0 | 18.0 | 6.7 | 0.96 | 18.7% | 26 | 28 | 16 |
| Kosta Koufos | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,600 | 17.1 | 4.0 | 18.8 | 3.4 | 0.91 | 13.2% | 19 | 6 | 2 |
| Buddy Hield | $5,900 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 21.3 | 3.5 | 24.1 | 1.8 | 0.88 | 21.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)
Secondary Plays – TBD (waiting on injuries)
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans have some difficult decisions to make in the near future. They originally planned to shop DeMarcus Cousins before the trade deadline, but that’s no longer an option. There are now rumors that they could potentially move Anthony Davis, but we are also seeing reports that they are trying to trade for Nikola Mirotic. As for tonight, they draw a favorable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential this season. Even without Cousins, the Pelicans have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the fifth highest on the board.
When superstar players like Cousins get injured, CourtIQ is incredibly helpful when trying to figure out which players are going to pick up the slack. Rajon Rondo sees a massive 0.32 fantasy point per minute boost, but he doesn’t play enough minutes to consider targeting in anything other than a large-field tournament. Jrue Holiday sees an 8% usage boost and a 0.38 fantasy point per minute boost, both of which are massive. The sites were quick to price Holiday up, but he deserves consideration tonight against the Kings. E’Twaun Moore and Darius Miller don’t see a major boost, but they will both play a few extra minutes moving forward.
Outside of Holiday, Anthony Davis is the biggest beneficiary of Cousins being out. Davis has a 34% usage rate and a massive 1.73 fantasy points per minute with Cousins off the floor this season. It feels gross paying this price for player that could stub his toe and be out for the game, but Davis is one of those plays that you fade at your own risk. He has 70 fantasy point type of upside against the Kings, who are ranked 29th in efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential this season. Without factoring in salaries, Davis is the top play on the board tonight.
Notable Injuries
DeMarcus Cousins (Out)
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 110.9 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.6 (12 of 18)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rajon Rondo | $5,500 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 22.7 | -8.1 | 24.2 | -4.4 | 0.94 | 16.9% | 14 | 13 | 29 |
| Jrue Holiday | $8,500 | $8,300 | $15,200 | 35.6 | 5.3 | 37.0 | 0.7 | 0.96 | 20.5% | 20 | 18 | 27 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $5,700 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 21.7 | 0.3 | 32.5 | 1.8 | 0.67 | 14.6% | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| Dante Cunningham | $4,500 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 12.4 | 0.8 | 21.9 | -1.1 | 0.57 | 9.1% | 22 | 20 | 26 |
| Anthony Davis | $12,500 | $11,400 | $20,300 | 50.9 | 2.9 | 36.4 | 2.7 | 1.40 | 24.2% | 29 | 28 | 24 |
| Darius Miller | $4,700 | $4,500 | $9,700 | 13.0 | 7.1 | 22.6 | 9.1 | 0.57 | 12.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jrue Holiday, Anthony Davis
Secondary Plays – Darius Miller, Rajon Rondo (GPP), E’Twaun Moore
Cleveland Cavaliers at Detroit Pistons – 8:00 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 112.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Isaiah Thomas | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Reggie Bullock | Stanley Johnson | Anthony Tolliver | Andre Drummond | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 8 | 9 | 29 | 12 | 10 | DvP | 25 | 25 | 28 | 22 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 20 | 11 | 14 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 25 | 24 | 18 | 30 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are looking for their third win in a row after a stretch where they couldn’t do anything right. There are concerns about this team in the long run, but I expect them to right the ship over the next couple of weeks. On paper, tonight’s matchup against the Pistons is far from appealing, but Detroit just traded away half their team for Blake Griffin, who will not make his debut tonight. The Cavaliers come into the game with an implied total of 112.8 points, which is the second highest on the board and three points above their season average.
Isaiah Thomas will continue to get better as the season progresses and I’m certainly intrigued by his 28% true usage rate, but there are better point guard targets in tonight’s nine game slate. LeBron James is an elite play in a vacuum. He should be able to dominate both ends of the floor against this Triple-A Pistons squad, but I have him ranked behind Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis in terms of priority to lineup construction. I’m not touching Kevin Love with a ten-foot pole right now, especially since his price hasn’t budged in weeks. The only other play here is Tristan Thompson, who will draw another start at center. He has a chance to push for 30 minutes, as he is the Cavaliers’ best shot of slowing Andre Drummond down.
Notable Injuries
None
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.9 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.8 (2 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.8 (8 of 18)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Thomas | $6,200 | $5,900 | $11,200 | 22.0 | 3.7 | 25.6 | 2.5 | 0.86 | 28.0% | 20 | 8 | 16 |
| J.R. Smith | $3,500 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 16.8 | 2.0 | 29.9 | 0.3 | 0.56 | 11.9% | 3 | 9 | 20 |
| LeBron James | $11,400 | $11,300 | $21,500 | 53.5 | -9.0 | 37.0 | 0.8 | 1.45 | 29.3% | 23 | 29 | 11 |
| Kevin Love | $7,000 | $7,200 | $14,000 | 34.1 | -8.2 | 28.5 | -4.5 | 1.20 | 22.2% | 15 | 12 | 14 |
| Tristan Thompson | $4,000 | $4,600 | $9,800 | 14.7 | 3.8 | 19.6 | 3.2 | 0.75 | 10.2% | 11 | 10 | 4 |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,300 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 24.4 | -4.7 | 23.1 | -4.6 | 1.06 | 22.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 19.0 | -0.9 | 22.3 | -2.6 | 0.85 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Tristan Thompson (FD)
Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson (DK)
Detroit Pistons
In case you missed it, the Pistons traded Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, a first round pick, and a second round pick to the Clippers for Blake Griffin. I hate judging trades right when they happen, but what on earth are the Pistons thinking? Not only did they give up a ton for Griffin, but he’s one of the highest paid players in the NBA. I don’t get the move one bit, but hey, maybe they will prove me wrong. Griffin will not be active tonight, which opens up a ton of minutes in the rotation. The best part is that they are facing the Cavaliers, who are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.
Langston Galloway has drawn the last two starts at point guard, but Ish Smith has outplayed him off the bench. With little to no firepower offensively, I expect Stan Van Gundy to go back to Smith tonight. If that’s the case, he makes an intriguing tournament play against Isaiah Thomas, who had the worst DRPM grade of any player in basketball last season. With Bradley and Harris shipped off to Los Angeles, Reggie Bullock, Stanley Johnson, and Anthony Tolliver could all push for 35 minutes tonight. If you are playing multiple sites, it makes sense to go price shopping. Bullock and Tolliver are the better buys on FanDuel, while Johnson is the better buy on DraftKings. Luke Kennard could also see a big role tonight if you are looking for a low-owned sleeper with upside.
My favorite play from this game is Andre Drummond. The Pistons’ offense has been running through him all season and they will be without three of their highest usage players in Reggie Jackson, Bradley, and Harris. There aren’t many games where Drummond has double-digit assist potential, but this is one of them. Add in the fact that the Cavaliers struggle to rebound and struggle to defend the paint and we have ourselves an amazing play. Drummond is priced up a bit on FanDuel, but he’s sitting at $9,300 on DraftKings.
Notable Injuries
Blake Griffin (Out)
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (11 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 4.5 (4 of 18)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.4 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.7 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,000 | $5,600 | $10,400 | 21.3 | 3.7 | 23.2 | 8.0 | 0.92 | 23.4% | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| Reggie Bullock | $3,800 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 14.8 | 6.2 | 24.0 | 3.4 | 0.62 | 11.8% | 24 | 25 | 25 |
| Stanley Johnson | $4,300 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 17.5 | 0.8 | 27.0 | -3.8 | 0.65 | 13.8% | 27 | 28 | 24 |
| Anthony Tolliver | $3,800 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 13.3 | 2.9 | 20.4 | 2.9 | 0.65 | 13.2% | 24 | 22 | 18 |
| Andre Drummond | $10,500 | $9,300 | $17,400 | 44.4 | 7.1 | 33.1 | 1.7 | 1.34 | 18.6% | 16 | 21 | 30 |
| Langston Galloway | $3,800 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 11.7 | 1.7 | 15.1 | 1.4 | 0.77 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Luke Kennard | $3,700 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 12.9 | 3.7 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 0.70 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |