NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 13th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Los Angeles Clippers at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET
| Los Angeles Clippers | Orlando Magic | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Milos Teodosic | Austin Rivers | Wesley Johnson | Jamil Wilson | DeAndre Jordan | Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Arron Afflalo | Jonathon Simmons | Mario Hezonja | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 28 | 21 | 29 | 12 | DvP | 9 | 30 | 24 | 16 | 22 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 21 | 30 | 20 | 5 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 29 | 6 | 15 | 14 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers have won two games in a row and aren’t too far out of the playoff picture in the Western Conference. Tonight’s game against the Magic should be a fun one when it comes to DFS. Both of these teams are ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game. The Magic are not only bad defensively, but they also have the worst rebounding differential in basketball. The Clippers have an implied total of 106 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.
Austin Rivers has played well recently, but the story in the Clippers’ backcourt is Milos Teodosic. He has a lot of talent and should soak up a lot of the usage that Blake Griffin left when he went down with his injury. In Teodosic’s first game back, he played 20 minutes and scored 19 fantasy points. I’m expecting more minutes from Milos tonight, perhaps around 25. He’s one of my favorite value plays on DraftKings ($3,900) and is worth a look on FanDuel ($4,500) as well. Rivers is more of a deep tournament play, although it’s worth noting that he is averaging 32 fantasy points over his last four games.
Lou Williams has a very high ceiling, but we no longer get to play him at a discounted price point. He basically needs 40 fantasy points to reach 5x, which is a tough task when you are talking about a median projection. Williams is still fine in tournaments, but there are better cash game targets. Seeing as how the Magic are the worst rebounding team in the NBA, it’s hard not to like DeAndre Jordan. In his last six games, he has grabbed 16, 17, 12, 21, 17, and 17 rebounds. If he can turn some of those into put-backs, he could have another excellent fantasy outing.
Notable Injuries
Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.9 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (9 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (7 of 18)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.8 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.6 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milos Teodosic | $4,500 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 14.6 | 4.8 | 17.5 | 3.0 | 0.83 | 24.1% | 27 | 29 | 22 |
| Austin Rivers | $6,200 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 25.5 | 6.7 | 33.7 | 1.7 | 0.76 | 19.7% | 28 | 28 | 21 |
| Wesley Johnson | $4,700 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 18.7 | -0.2 | 25.6 | 1.7 | 0.73 | 12.1% | 28 | 21 | 30 |
| Jamil Wilson | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 6.6 | 0.2 | 12.4 | 4.1 | 0.53 | 12.8% | 18 | 29 | 20 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,900 | $7,300 | $13,500 | 32.6 | 7.9 | 32.5 | 1.4 | 1.00 | 10.7% | 22 | 12 | 5 |
| Lou Williams | $8,200 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 30.6 | 9.7 | 30.5 | 5.6 | 1.00 | 25.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Milos Teodosic (DK), DeAndre Jordan
Secondary Plays – Miloa Teodosic (FD), Austin Rivers (GPP), Lou Williams (GPP)
Orlando Magic
The Magic come into tonight’s game extremely short-handed. Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon, and Jonathan Isaac have already been ruled out and there’s a chance that Arron Afflalo could join them. Luckily, the Clippers are a team that they should be able to hang with. The spread for this game is set at 1.5 points and the total of 213.5 points is enticing. Despite missing two of their starters, the Magic’s implied total of 107.5 points is actually higher than their season average.
Elfrid Payton is priced up across the industry and I’m not exactly sure why. I don’t mind when sites are willing to price players up when there are injuries, but Payton’s production does not warrant this much of a price hike. I would have interest if he was priced in the $6,000-$6,500 range, but have a hard time paying well over $7,000 for him tonight. If Afflalo ends up sitting out, D.J. Augustin could end up drawing the start at shooting guard. If that’s the case, he has some appeal in all formats.
Jonathon Simmons is one of my favorite plays at any position. He seems overpriced, but that’s just an illusion. With Fournier and Gordon out, he’s going to play more minutes and take on a larger role in the offense. There is a chance that he plays 40 minutes against a Clippers’ defense that is ranked 26th in efficiency and 24th in DvP against small forwards. Mario Hezonja played 31 minutes in his spot start the other night and scored 21 fantasy points. I’m not sure he has 30 fantasy point upside, but he’s certainly a nice value play at small forward.
It’s rare that I like two centers in the same game, but I plan to have a lot of exposure to both DeAndre Jordan and Nikola Vucevic. Over his last four games, Vucevic is averaging over 34 minutes and during that stretch, he has an elite FP/min of 1.62. He is going to be the sole focus offensively and we can bump up his rebounding projection with Gordon out. Much like Simmons, Vucevic feels expensive, but we have to overlook that given his current role in the offense.
Notable Injuries
Evan Fournier (Out)
Aaron Gordon (Out)
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Arron Afflalo (Questionable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 107.0 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (5 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5 (8 of 18)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $7,700 | $7,200 | $13,800 | 28.1 | -5.4 | 27.9 | 3.8 | 1.01 | 20.2% | 14 | 9 | 9 |
| Arron Afflalo | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 13.6 | 7.0 | 0.39 | 9.5% | 26 | 30 | 29 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $6,500 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 22.3 | 7.9 | 27.9 | 7.6 | 0.80 | 20.7% | 26 | 24 | 6 |
| Mario Hezonja | $3,700 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 7.3 | 1.3 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 0.67 | 12.9% | 12 | 16 | 15 |
| Nikola Vucevic | $9,300 | $8,800 | $16,000 | 38.2 | 17.4 | 30.5 | 3.7 | 1.25 | 22.0% | 18 | 22 | 14 |
| D.J. Augustin | $4,000 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 16.8 | 2.3 | 20.2 | 2.2 | 0.83 | 17.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jonathon Simmons, Nikola Vucevic
Secondary Plays – D.J. Augustin, Mario Hezonja
Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Memphis Grizzlies | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.0 |  | Vegas Total | 199.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.8 | Implied Team Total | 103.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -4.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Tyreke Evans | Andrew Harrison | Dillon Brooks | JaMychal Green | Marc Gasol | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 5 | 26 | 1 | 14 | DvP | 13 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 1 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 11 | 19 | 1 | 11 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 21 | 12 | 10 | 28 | 21 | |
Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies have been competitive in a number of games recently, but have still lost nine of their last ten. If they don’t right the ship soon, they will have a tough time making it back to the playoffs. Tonight they head to Washington to take on a Wizards’ team that is ranked 12th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. This isn’t a great matchup by any means, as evidenced by the fact that Memphis has the lowest implied total (95.8 points) on the board.
Tyreke Evans has flourished since entering the starting lineup, but the Wizards have done a nice job of containing point guards. Evans is one of the few players at his price point with 50+ fantasy point upside, but there are safer targets in cash games. Andrew Harrison has quietly played well over his last four games, averaging 28 minutes and 23 fantasy points. At $3,700 on DraftKings, he has some appeal as a low-owned punt in tournaments. Marc Gasol production has been down over his last few games. Perhaps he is wearing down, after carrying this offense for the better part of a month. While I wouldn’t rule him out as a high-floor cash game target, I prefer DeAndre Jordan and Nikola Vucevic at similar price points.
Notable Injuries
None
Memphis Grizzlies Offense
Points Per Game: 97.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.8 (18 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (13 of 18)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyreke Evans | $7,300 | $7,300 | $13,400 | 32.1 | 0.1 | 29.8 | 3.7 | 1.08 | 26.2% | 4 | 12 | 11 |
| Andrew Harrison | $4,200 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 13.2 | 9.5 | 18.1 | 10.4 | 0.73 | 16.6% | 13 | 5 | 19 |
| Dillon Brooks | $3,500 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 16.1 | -7.4 | 28.3 | -5.4 | 0.57 | 11.8% | 13 | 26 | 1 |
| JaMychal Green | $5,400 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 18.8 | -3.9 | 27.6 | 4.0 | 0.68 | 14.1% | 20 | 1 | 11 |
| Marc Gasol | $8,100 | $7,600 | $13,000 | 38.6 | -5.9 | 35.0 | 1.7 | 1.10 | 24.5% | 14 | 14 | 13 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Tyreke Evans (GPP), Andrew Harrison (DK), Marc Gasol (Cash)
Washington Wizards
The Wizards were hoping to have John Wall back in the lineup last night, but are now looking to tonight’s game for his potential return. With this being one of the first games of the night to tip-off, we should know his status well before lineups lock. While Wall’s return is exciting, their matchup leaves much to be desired. On the season, the Grizzlies are ranked dead last in pace of play and sixth in points allowed per game. The Wizards’ projected point differential (-2.8) is the third worst on the schedule.
The breakdown for Washington is fairly simple. If Wall is active, they are an easy team to fade as a whole. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are both overpriced with Wall playing and Wall himself wouldn’t see a full complement of minutes. If Wall is ruled out, I don’t mind going back to the Beal well in tournaments. Marcin Gortat really burned me last night. When Ian Mahinmi was ruled out, I pivoted to him on FanDuel. He played well while on the floor, but saw less than 20 minutes. Against the Nets, Washington didn’t need his size, but they will tonight against Marc Gasol. If Mahinmi is ruled out again, I will give Gortat another shot in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Questionable)
Ian Mahinmi (Questionable)
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (12 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (16 of 18)
Matchup vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 95.7 (30 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,300 | $7,900 | $15,600 | 41.8 | 34.4 | 1.21 | 28.9% | 21 | 13 | 21 | ||
| Bradley Beal | $8,600 | $7,600 | $14,400 | 35.9 | 8.3 | 34.9 | 3.4 | 1.03 | 27.4% | 7 | 9 | 12 |
| Otto Porter | $7,400 | $6,900 | 31.7 | -2.3 | 32.5 | -0.6 | 0.98 | 17.3% | 2 | 5 | 10 | |
| Markieff Morris | $5,100 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 18.9 | -1.1 | 23.2 | 1.0 | 0.82 | 17.9% | 25 | 14 | 28 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,700 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 25.0 | -2.1 | 28.5 | -6.4 | 0.88 | 13.4% | 9 | 1 | 21 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,500 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 22.1 | 0.2 | 27.4 | -2.5 | 0.81 | 16.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (GPP if Wall is out), Marcin Gortat (GPP if Mahinmi is out)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 0.0 | Vegas Spread | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 107.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Alex Abrines | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 13 | 3 | 21 | 30 | DvP | 5 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 7 | 1 | 28 | 10 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 3 | 13 | 1 | 13 | 11 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
This is a revenge game all around. We have Paul George heading back to Indiana for the first time and we have the double revenge narrative for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis facing their former team. While a lot of that is noise, this game has plenty of fantasy value with a total of 214 points. It’s set as a pick ‘em, so we can expect the game to stay close throughout. Oklahoma City currently has an implied total of 107 points, which is the sixth highest of the slate and 5.2 points above their season average.
On paper, this sets up as a great spot for Russell Westbrook. He is basically matchup-proof to begin with and he should see 36-38 minutes in a close, fast-paced game. My only concern is that Westbrook has as much revenge blood in his veins as anyone. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get George the ball early and often in this one. I’m certainly fine playing both, but I slightly prefer George dollar for dollar. The best part about George is that his price has come down below $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Even if you don’t want to buy into narratives, he’s a solid play on paper.
Alex Abrines will draw another start at shooting guard. He’s a decent value across the industry, but not one that I will be forcing into my lineups. Carmelo Anthony usage will likely take a hit now that George is back in the lineup. The price is enticing, but we haven’t seen much from Anthony over the last couple of weeks. This is a sneaky spot for Steven Adams. The Pacers are ranked 29th in efficiency and dead last in DvP against centers this season. They are also ranked 20th in rebounding differential. A potentially 10% owned Adams sounds awfully nice in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Andre Roberson (Out)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 101.8 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 5.2 (2 of 18)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.5 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.6 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,200 | $11,200 | $21,200 | 50.2 | 5.6 | 36.0 | 2.3 | 1.40 | 33.6% | 13 | 20 | 7 |
| Alex Abrines | $3,600 | $3,300 | $6,400 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 17.4 | 10.7 | 0.52 | 11.5% | 10 | 13 | 1 |
| Paul George | $7,600 | $7,700 | $14,100 | 38.6 | -12.3 | 37.0 | -0.1 | 1.04 | 23.2% | 4 | 3 | 28 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,700 | $6,500 | $12,300 | 31.1 | -0.2 | 32.8 | 2.9 | 0.95 | 23.0% | 28 | 21 | 10 |
| Steven Adams | $6,900 | $6,400 | $12,700 | 30.3 | 1.0 | 31.7 | 2.0 | 0.96 | 14.2% | 29 | 30 | 10 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,600 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 17.4 | -10.3 | 21.8 | -5.1 | 0.80 | 14.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (FD), Paul George, Steven Adams (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (DK), Alex Abrines, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams (Cash)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won four games in a row and have vaulted up to fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings. I always like to look at the recent performance of teams because we often overlook it when focusing all of our attention on the fantasy aspect of the NBA. They draw a difficult matchup on paper against the Thunder (third in points allowed per game), but I love the projected pace for this game. The Pacers’ implied total of 107 points is the sixth highest overall.
There are two injuries to monitor tonight — Darren Collison and Cory Joseph are both listed as questionable. If they are both active, we can easily fade both. If one is ruled out, the other becomes an excellent play in all formats. If they are both ruled out, Lance Stephenson would become an elite play in all formats. There are plenty of moving pieces here, so keep your eye on the injury report throughout the day. Victor Oladipo is becoming a superstar right before our very eyes. While it’s tempting to play him against his former team, I’m going to fade him in all formats. His price and ownership are both inflated and he may draw the defense of Paul George, who is an excellent on-ball defender.
The Thunder don’t exactly have a frontcourt that I like to pick on, but Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner have some fantasy appeal tonight. Young should play around 33-35 minutes and is priced under $6,000 on DraftKings. Turner is finally starting to heat up, averaging 32 minutes and 36 fantasy points over his last four games. Whenever we see such a large gap in pricing between FanDuel and DraftKings ($1,800), it suggests that one or both of the sites didn’t price him correctly.
Notable Injuries
Cory Joseph (Questionable)
Darren Collison (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.0 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (6 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (15 of 18)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.9 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.3 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,900 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 28.0 | -2.1 | 30.9 | -8.2 | 0.91 | 18.6% | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Victor Oladipo | $10,000 | $9,200 | $18,000 | 42.3 | 7.2 | 34.0 | 3.4 | 1.24 | 27.2% | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,500 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 21.0 | -1.2 | 31.6 | 2.9 | 0.66 | 16.1% | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,300 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 28.7 | 2.5 | 33.6 | 2.2 | 0.85 | 16.0% | 9 | 9 | 13 |
| Myles Turner | $8,100 | $6,300 | $12,400 | 32.7 | 3.7 | 29.8 | 2.7 | 1.10 | 18.1% | 5 | 20 | 11 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,400 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 18.0 | 1.1 | 24.8 | 2.0 | 0.72 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,500 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 18.9 | 1.1 | 21.9 | 3.5 | 0.86 | 17.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD (waiting on injury news)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner (DK)
Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 207.0 |  | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 106.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Will Barton | Wilson Chandler | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Semi Ojeleye | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 9 | DvP | 26 | 3 | 11 | 26 | 10 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 1 | 3 | 25 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 4 | 27 | 25 | 2 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are playing in the second half of a back-to-back and draw one of the worst matchups on the schedule. The Celtics not only play at a slow pace, but are ranked first in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Nuggets’ implied total of 100.4 points is the fourth lowest of the slate. To make matters worse, it is nearly seven points below their season average, which gives them the worst projected point differential of the 18 teams in action tonight.
It sounds like Nikola Jokic is nearing a return for Denver. If he is back tonight, we can safely avoid their frontcourt as a whole. Even if Jokic is ruled out, I have very little interest in the likes of Wilson Chandler, Mason Plumlee, Trey Lyles, or Kenneth Faried. The only two viable options here are Gary Harris and Will Barton. Harris should continue to see 36-38 minutes a night and is currently priced at a discount on FanDuel ($5,800). Barton provides more upside, but he’s a little more expensive and he did leave last night’s game with a back injury. I still have Barton on my short list of tournament targets, but Harris is the better cash game option.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Jokic (Questionable)
Will Barton (Probable)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 107.1 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -6.8 (18 of 18)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 97.3 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.6 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.7 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $5,100 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 22.3 | 2.0 | 26.9 | -2.4 | 0.83 | 22.5% | 5 | 2 | 20 |
| Gary Harris | $5,800 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 28.3 | 2.0 | 33.5 | 0.6 | 0.84 | 17.6% | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Will Barton | $7,000 | $6,900 | $12,700 | 30.6 | 8.3 | 31.4 | 7.9 | 0.97 | 19.9% | 1 | 14 | 3 |
| Wilson Chandler | $4,100 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 19.1 | 3.0 | 29.9 | -1.3 | 0.64 | 13.9% | 22 | 7 | 25 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,800 | $8,000 | $15,500 | 38.9 | 29.4 | 1.32 | 20.9% | 6 | 9 | 1 | ||
| Emmanuel Mudiay | $3,500 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 18.1 | -0.3 | 21.7 | 0.4 | 0.83 | 22.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kenneth Faried | $5,500 | $5,000 | $9,800 | 15.4 | 12.1 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 0.94 | 14.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mason Plumlee | $4,900 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 18.4 | 4.6 | 18.3 | 4.3 | 1.00 | 14.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Gary Harris (FD), Will Barton (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Gary Harris (DK), Will Barton (Cash)
Boston Celtics
The Celtics are going to be short-handed tonight, as Marcus Morris and Al Horford have both been ruled out. Luckily, they are playing at home in a pace-up game against the Nuggets, who have really struggled on the defensive end of the floor recently. On the season, Denver is ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 21st in defensive efficiency. Despite missing two pieces in their frontcourt, the Celtics have an implied total (106.8 points) that is nearly four points above their season average.
The DFS community as a whole is getting smarter. Most people know how to use the awesome tools like CourtIQ, which will lead a lot of people to say that Kyrie Irving sees a dip in usage with Al Horford and Marcus Morris off the floor. While that’s been the case for the first 111 minutes of this sample, that doesn’t mean that we should rule him out in a dream matchup against the Nuggets. On the season, Denver is ranked 23rd in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. Irving’s price has come down, he has a perfect matchup, and there is usage in this offense that opens up with Horford out.
Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart could both see a small boost in minutes, but both players are in bad form when you look at their recent fantasy production. I’d much rather play Jason Taytum, who should directly benefit from Morris and Horford being out. Tatum has 33-35 minute upside here and is sitting at a very playable $6,100 on FanDuel. Daniel Theis should also see some addition minutes off the bench if you need a cheap play at power forward. Aron Baynes is averaging 0.85 FP/min this season and should be set for a heavy workload tonight. He’s one of the better value plays at any position. It sounds strange, but I’ll actually like Baynes more if Nikola Jokic plays because the Celtics will need his size down low.
Notable Injuries
Al Horford (Out)
Marcus Morris (Out)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (8 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 (4 of 18)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.2 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,100 | $8,200 | $15,600 | 37.3 | -4.7 | 32.0 | 1.9 | 1.17 | 29.0% | 23 | 26 | 26 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,800 | $5,900 | $11,500 | 25.8 | -6.0 | 31.3 | -1.4 | 0.83 | 18.3% | 17 | 3 | 4 |
| Jayson Tatum | $6,100 | $6,100 | $13,000 | 26.8 | 0.5 | 30.6 | 1.3 | 0.88 | 15.4% | 8 | 11 | 27 |
| Semi Ojeleye | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 5.9 | -0.4 | 13.9 | 0.4 | 0.43 | 8.7% | 20 | 26 | 25 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 15.1 | -2.0 | 17.7 | -0.9 | 0.85 | 14.2% | 25 | 10 | 2 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,900 | $5,400 | $10,600 | 23.5 | -10.6 | 30.3 | -2.4 | 0.78 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Daniel Theis | $3,500 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 12.4 | 2.3 | 12.4 | 0.5 | 1.00 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum (FD), Aron Baynes (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jayson Tatum (DK), Aron Baynes (DK), Daniel Theis
Portland Trail Blazers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Portland Trail Blazers | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 2.5 | Vegas Spread | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.3 | Implied Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Dion Waiters | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 10 | 12 | 13 | 19 | 2 | DvP | 8 | 11 | 22 | 3 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 21 | 6 | 12 | 15 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 4 | |
Portland Trail Blazers
We should be able to save some time on this game, as both of these teams are ranked inside the top ten in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The spread is close, but the total is set at 203 points. The Blazers have an implied total of only 100.3 points. Not only is that the fourth lowest mark of the slate, but it’s also three points below their season average. Maurice Harkless and Jusuf Nurkic are both questionable for tonight’s game, but I’m not too interested in any of the Blazers even if they are both ruled out. Damian Lillard is expensive, C.J. McCollum has struggled over the last two weeks, and Portland’s frontcourt rotation is too volatile to trust outside of Al-Farouq Aminu.
Notable Injuries
Maurice Harkless (Questionable)
Jusuf Nurkic (Questionable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.3 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (15 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: -3.1 (17 of 18)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.3 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,500 | $9,000 | $16,500 | 43.5 | 6.1 | 37.2 | 3.5 | 1.17 | 29.3% | 7 | 10 | 23 |
| C.J. McCollum | $6,800 | $6,700 | 32.1 | -3.1 | 36.4 | -0.5 | 0.88 | 23.2% | 12 | 12 | 21 | |
| Evan Turner | $3,600 | $4,000 | $7,300 | 17.4 | -5.0 | 26.2 | -1.4 | 0.66 | 15.4% | 7 | 13 | 6 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,500 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.2 | -3.9 | 29.4 | 0.3 | 0.79 | 12.1% | 13 | 19 | 12 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,800 | $6,900 | $13,600 | 30.8 | -6.2 | 28.0 | -1.6 | 1.10 | 24.2% | 19 | 2 | 15 |
| Noah Vonleh | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 16.4 | -2.9 | 20.9 | -7.2 | 0.78 | 8.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Meyers Leonard | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 11.8 | 2.6 | 0.90 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Al-Farouq Aminu (DK)
Miami Heat
The Heat might be playing at home, but this should still be considered one of the worst matchups on the board. The Blazers are currently ranked fifth in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. Even if this game stays close, I expect it to be low scoring. We don’t have to look hard to find a game that is more conducive to fantasy production. With all of that said, the Heat’s implied total is sitting at 102.8 points, which is surprisingly 2.3 points above their season average.
Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, and Tyler Johnson should all see between 26-30 minutes tonight. They all cut into each other’s fantasy appeal and they all have fairly difficult matchups. In a nine game slate, they are ease fades in both cash games and tournaments. The only play even remotely on my radar tonight is James Johnson. He has played at least 31 minutes in back-to-back games and is one of the few players in the NBA that I would consider matchup-proof. Most of his fantasy production comes from rebounds, blocks, and steals. I’m not sure I would look his way in cash games in such a slow paced game, but he’s certainly viable in tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Hassan Whiteside (Out)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.5 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (13 of 18)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3 (5 of 18)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.6 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,700 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 29.5 | 0.8 | 31.7 | -4.6 | 0.93 | 24.2% | 9 | 8 | 20 |
| Dion Waiters | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 23.8 | -6.6 | 30.6 | -3.6 | 0.78 | 23.1% | 16 | 11 | 21 |
| Josh Richardson | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 20.0 | 1.2 | 32.3 | -1.2 | 0.62 | 14.3% | 17 | 22 | 4 |
| James Johnson | $5,900 | $5,600 | $11,100 | 26.4 | -2.0 | 27.7 | 1.1 | 0.95 | 18.4% | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $6,000 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 20.1 | 4.7 | 20.6 | 6.0 | 0.97 | 16.9% | 2 | 7 | 4 |
| Tyler Johnson | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 20.6 | 6.4 | 27.4 | 1.8 | 0.75 | 17.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |