NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 27th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -16.5, 210.5 Over/Under
- Phoenix Suns Proj. Starters – Goodwin-Booker-Tucker-Len-Chandler
- Cleveland Cavaliers Proj. Starters – Irving-Smith-James-Love-Thompson
| Phoenix Suns | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 210.5 | | Vegas Total | 210.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 16.5 | Vegas Sprd | -16.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 113.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.70 | Team Pace | 95.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Archie Goodwin | Devin Booker | P.J. Tucker | Alex Len | Tyson Chandler | Proj. Starter | Kyrie Irving | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Tristan Thompson | |
| Opp. Season | 20 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 1 | Opp. Season | 29 | 29 | 28 | 15 | 7 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 27 | 4 | 8 | 22 | 5 | Last 3 Weeks | 30 | 30 | 29 | 17 | 24 | |
Phoenix Suns
Record: 14-32 — Road: 4-19 — Last 10: 2-8
- Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.6 (14 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 97.0 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -4.6
The Suns lost by a large margin last night against the Sixers and now have to play in the second half of a back-to-back against the Cavaliers. This is a difficult matchup for anyone, especially a team that is so short-handed. The Suns are only projected to score 97 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board.
- Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.0 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 4.0 (4 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.0 (3 of 30)
The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked sixth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Brandon Knight, Ronnie Price, and Jon Leuer have all been ruled out of tonight’s game.
- Injury Watch:
Brandon Knight (Out)
Ronnie Price (Out)
Jon Leuer (Out)
Elite Plays
Archie Goodwin
Goodwin was around 115% owned last night and the chalk certainly paid off. Despite getting into foul trouble, he still finished the game with 42 fantasy points. He draws a much tougher matchup tonight against the Cavaliers, but his minutes should be secure, regardless of the game’s outcome. The Suns want to see what he brings to the table and he should see 30+ minutes tonight, even in a blowout.
FD — $4,100 — PG
DK — $4,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 15.4 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 12.9 | Last Five Games: 23.9
Secondary Plays
Alex Len
Jon Leuer has been ruled out of tonight’s game. While Markieff Morris and Mirza Teletovic were both able to suit up last night, Len still played 34 minutes against the Sixers. He has now score at least 32 fantasy points in each of his last three games. He should see close to 30 minutes again tonight, making him an interesting value play at center.
FD — $4,700 — C
DK — $4,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 15.6
Min/Game — Season: 19.5 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 31.0
Devin Booker
Booker is cash game playable on FanDuel and one of my favorite tournament plays on DraftKings. Everyone is going to have Archie Goodwin as their shooting guard on DK, so pivoting to Booker makes sense in tournaments. He should see all of the minutes that he can handle and we have seen the type of upside that he brings to the table.
FD — $4,500 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 18.8
Min/Game — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 24.2
Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 31-12 — Home: 17-3 — Last 10: 7-3
- Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.3 (16 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 113.5 (2 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 12.2
The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games, they are 17-3 at home, and they draw one of the easiest matchups on the schedule tonight. They are listed as 16.5-point favorites tonight against the Suns at home. The Cavaliers are projected to score 113.5 points, which is the second highest team total on the board.
- Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.7 (17 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 206.2 (25 of 30)
The Suns have been one of the best teams to target players against this season. They are ranked 25th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The main concern here is the potential for a blowout. If this game gets out of hand early, the starters will not see a full complement of minutes. LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving are all decent plays, but there are better (and safer) targets at each of their respective positions.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Tristan Thompson
Tyronn Lue made a lineup change in his second game as head coach, starting Thompson over Timofey Mozgov. Thompson rewarded his coach with 19 points and 12 rebounds. Thompson is a safe cash game option with a relatively high floor if you are looking to save some salary cap space at power forward.
FD — $4,600 — PF
DK — $5,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.4 | Last Five Games: 12.8
Min/Game — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 24.0
FP/Game — Season: 20.7 | Last Five Games: 18.9
Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -9, 209.5 Over/Under
- Denver Nuggets Proj. Starters – Mudiay-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Jokic
- Boston Celtics Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
| Denver Nuggets | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 209.5 | | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 9.0 | Vegas Sprd | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.3 | Team Proj. | 109.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.50 | Team Pace | 101.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Emmanuel Mudiay | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Nikola Jokic | Proj. Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 17 | Opp. Season | 28 | 27 | 13 | 22 | 21 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 6 | 9 | 16 | 28 | 14 | Last 3 Weeks | 26 | 11 | 17 | 25 | 22 | |
Denver Nuggets
Record: 17-28 — Road: 8-13 — Last 10: 5-5
- Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 100.3 (10 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.5
The Nuggets have played well over their last ten games, winning five during that stretch. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Celtics on the road. The Nuggets are 9-point underdogs with their team total set at 100.3 points. This is one of the many games with the potential to turn into a blowout.
- Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.6 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.3 (18 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.8 (12 of 30)
The Celtics have been one of the most efficient defensive teams in the NBA this season. Their quick pace of play has hurt their rankings in points allowed per game (11th) and fantasy points allowed per game (12th). Jameer Nelson is not expected to play tonight, which gives a nice boost to Emmanuel Mudiay. Gary Harris was limping in last night’s game. There hasn’t been an update on his status, so we will consider him questionable. If he is unable to play, Will Barton would become an intriguing play.
- Injury Watch:
Jameer Nelson (Doubtful)
Gary Harris (Questionable)
Joffrey Lauvergne (Questionable)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Danilo Gallinari
Gallinari has been a solid mid-range small forward option this season, averaging just over 30 fantasy points per game. His price has come down a bit on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a decent matchup against the Celtics, who are ranked 23rd against small forwards this season.
FD — $6,900 — SF
DK — $7,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.2 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 32.7
FP/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 29.3
Nikola Jokic
Jokic is strictly a tournament play tonight, but one that deserves consideration nonetheless. Over his last five games, he is averaging 27.5 fantasy points in only 21.4 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against a Celtics’ frontcourt that has struggled to contain opposing bigs.
FD — $5,300 — C
DK — $5,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 18.5
Min/Game — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 21.4
FP/Game — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 27.5
Boston Celtics
Record: 25-21 — Home: 12-10 — Last 10: 6-4
- Boston Celtics Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.3 (6 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 109.3 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.0
The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and are now four games above .500 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets at home. The Celtics are projected to score 109.3 points in this matchup. Not only is that the third highest team total, but it is also five points higher than their average points scored per game this season.
- Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.6 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.5 (23 of 30)
The Nuggets have struggled defensively this season, ranking 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. They are also ranked 21st or worse in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, power forwards, and centers.
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
Avery Bradley
Bradley has been playing all of the minutes that he can handle recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 28.5 fantasy points in 34.1 minutes per contest. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s again tonight against the Nuggets, who have been one of the worst teams at defending opposing backcourts.
FD — $5,500 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 34.1
FP/Game — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 28.5
Secondary Plays
Isaiah Thomas
As mentioned above, the Nuggets have not fared well against guards this season. They have allowed the third most fantasy points to point guards this season. Thomas comes into tonight’s game in good form, averaging 35 fantasy points over his last five outings. He is a borderline elite play on DraftKings if you think that this game stays within striking distance.
FD — $8,300 — PG
DK — $7,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 26.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 31.5
FP/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 35.0
Philadelphia 76ers at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM
- Vegas Line – Detroit -12.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- Philadelphia 76ers Proj. Starters – Smith-Stauskas-Covington-Grant-Noel
- Detroit Pistons Proj. Starters – Jackson-Caldwell-Pope-Morris-Ilyasova-Drummond
| Philadelphia 76ers | Detroit Pistons | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 203.5 | | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 12.5 | Vegas Sprd | -12.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.5 | Team Proj. | 108.0 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.70 | Team Pace | 97.80 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Ishmael Smith | Nik Stauskas | Robert Covington | Jerami Grant | Nerlens Noel | Proj. Starter | Reggie Jackson | Kentavious Caldwell-Pope | Marcus Morris | Ersan Ilyasova | Andre Drummond | |
| Opp. Season | 12 | 14 | 2 | 20 | 9 | Opp. Season | 21 | 19 | 29 | 28 | 28 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 21 | 20 | 3 | 12 | 27 | Last 3 Weeks | 20 | 24 | 21 | 15 | 20 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 7-39 — Road: 3-22 — Last 10: 4-6
- Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 94.7 (30 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 95.5 (15 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.8
The Sixers have been playing their best basketball of the season. They picked up their fourth win in ten games last night against the Suns. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons. While the spread of 12.5 points looks a little high, this game does have the potential to turn into a blowout. The Sixers are only projected to score 95.5 points, which is the second lowest team total on the board.
- Detroit Pistons Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.1 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 4.3 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.1 (8 of 30)
The Pistons have been stout defensively this season, ranking 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Sixers may not have the highest team total, but there are a few viable fantasy options here. Jahlil Okafor has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Isaiah Canaan and Jakarr Sampson are both questionable.
- Injury Watch:
Jahlil Okafor (Out)
Isaiah Canaan (Questionable)
Jakarr Sampson (Questionable)
Elite Plays
Nerlens Noel
This isn’t quite the play Russell Westbrook when Kevin Durant is out situation, but it’s a poor man’s version of it. Whenever Jahlil Okafor is out, Noel sees a nice boost. Not only does he see a boost in minutes, but he gets to slide over and start at center. In the five games that Okafor has missed this season, Noel has averaged 13.2 points, 7.4 rebounds, 2 blocks, and 2.4 steals. The matchup against Andre Drummond is less than appealing, but I still like Noel as an elite play tonight.
FD — $6,400 — PF
DK — $6,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.7 | Last Five Games: 11.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 29.8
FP/Game — Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 31.0
Secondary Plays
Ishmael Smith
Smith is coming off of yet another big outing last night, scoring 38 fantasy points against the Suns. He is still affordable across the industry, but does draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Pistons. Given some of the other options at point guard, Smith is more of a secondary play tonight.
FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $7,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.1 | Last Five Games: 25.0
Min/Game — Season: 25.8 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 25.9 | Last Five Games: 32.2
Robert Covington
Covington was productive last night, although he did get into foul trouble in the first half. Over his last five games, he is averaging 26 fantasy points per contest. While tonight’s matchup against the Pistons isn’t great, Covington is a borderline elite play on FanDuel and a price of only $5,100.
FD — $5,100 — SF
DK — $6,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.8 | Last Five Games: 16.0
Min/Game — Season: 26.6 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Detroit Pistons
Record: 24-21 — Home: 14-7 — Last 10: 5-5
- Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 101.7 (13 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.0 (6 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 6.3
The Pistons have won five of their last ten games and should be able to add another victory to their resume tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are playing their second game in as many nights. The Pistons are projected to score 108 points, which is 6.3 points higher than their average points per game this season.
- Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.5 (26 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.7 (28 of 30)
The Sixers remain one of the best teams to target for fantasy production. On the season, they are ranked 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The issue here is twofold: there is the potential for a blowout and none of the Pistons’ players have been in great form recently. Given the high spread, I will only be targeting Pistons’ players in tournaments.
- Injury Watch:
Jodie Meeks (Out)
Elite Plays
Andre Drummond
Drummond is a wildcard tonight. On the one hand, he is facing a Sixers’ team that can’t rebound or defend the paint. They have also allowed the most blocked shots of any team in the NBA. On the other hand, this game has blowout potential and Drummond appears to be in the dog house with Stan Van Gundy. I’m torn on whether or not I will use him in cash games, but he is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board tonight.
FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $8,500 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.9 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 28.1
FP/Game — Season: 40.6 | Last Five Games: 31.5
Secondary Plays
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
KCP has played well over his last five games, averaging 26.2 fantasy points per contest. He draws a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are turnover-prone. This could be a game where KCP gives you four or five blocks/steals.
FD — $5,800 — SG
DK — $5,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 37.5 | Last Five Games: 36.7
FP/Game — Season: 24.4 | Last Five Games: 26.2
Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -4, 207 Over/Under
- Los Angeles Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Pierce-Mbah a Moute-Jordan
- Atlanta Hawks Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
| Los Angeles Clippers | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 207.0 | | Vegas Total | 207.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 101.5 | Team Proj. | 105.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.30 | Team Pace | 99.10 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Paul Pierce | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | DeAndre Jordan | Proj. Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 10 | 21 | 14 | 11 | 27 | Opp. Season | 4 | 12 | 20 | 4 | 25 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 7 | 18 | 9 | 19 | 26 | Last 3 Weeks | 5 | 12 | 24 | 4 | 29 | |
Los Angeles Clippers
Record: 29-16 — Road: 14-9 — Last 10: 7-3
- Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 104.4 (5 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.5 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -2.9
The Clippers have won seven of their last ten games, including an impressive victory over the Pacers in Indiana last night. They now head to Atlanta to take on the Hawks in one of the only games that is expected to stay competitive. The Clippers are projected to score 101.5 points, which is right around the average of the 16 teams on the schedule tonight.
- Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.3 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.4 (18 of 30)
The Hawks have really improved on the defensive end of the floor over the last few weeks. They are now ranked eighth in points allowed per game and seventh in defensive efficiency. Blake Griffin remains out with his broken hand, which means it will continue to be the Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan show.
- Injury Watch:
Blake Griffin (Out)
Elite Plays
Chris Paul
Paul has been on a tear recently, averaging 48.8 fantasy points over his last five games. While the Clippers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they will need another big game from Paul if they are going to take down the Hawks. This is one of the few games that doesn’t have the potential to turn into a blowout, which makes Paul an even more attractive option.
FD — $10,100 — PG
DK — $9,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.3 | Last Five Games: 26.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 39.8 | Last Five Games: 48.8
DeAndre Jordan
Jordan is coming off of a nice outing against the Pacers last night. He draws an even better matchup tonight against the Hawks, who have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA. He is a threat to grab 20+ rebounds tonight in what should be a close, high-scoring game. Jordan probably my favorite center on the board tonight.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.7 | Last Five Games: 13.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.4 | Last Five Games: 35.4
FP/Game — Season: 33.8 | Last Five Games: 33.2
Secondary Plays
J.J. Redick
Shooting guard is a tough position tonight. Redick has seen a boost in minutes and usage with Blake Griffin out and that should continue tonight against the Hawks. He draws a decent matchup against Kyle Korver and he should see around 30 minutes of action.
FD — $5,200 — SG
DK — $5,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 27.8 | Last Five Games: 30.7
FP/Game — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 23.6
Atlanta Hawks
Record: 27-19 — Home: 15-7 — Last 10: 6-4
- Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 102.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 105.5 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 3.0
The Hawks have won six of their last ten games and are now 27-19 on the season. They draw their matchup against the Clippers at an opportune time, as Los Angeles is playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. The Hawks are projected to score 105.5 points, which is three points higher than their average points per game this season.
- Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.1 (10 of 30)
- Injury Watch:
NO INJURIES
Elite Plays
Paul Millsap
Millsap is a little expensive on FanDuel, but he comes into tonight’s game in excellent form. Over his last five games, he is averaging 43 fantasy points in only 30.5 minutes per contest. He should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight and he’s really the only Hawks’ player that I feel comfortable targeting in cash games.
FD — $8,900 — PF
DK — $8,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 30.5
FP/Game — Season: 38.5 | Last Five Games: 43.0
Secondary Plays
Al Horford
When it comes to center, a lot of people will be on Andre Drummond, DeAndre Jordan, and Alex Len. Horford should fly under the radar, making him an excellent tournament play. The Clippers have struggled against centers this season and Horford has put up a few monster fantasy outings this season.
FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $6,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 16.4
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 31.0
Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -7, 210 Over/Under
- Oklahoma City Thunder Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Singler-Durant-Ibaka-Collison
- Minnesota Timberwolves Proj. Starters – Rubio-Wiggins-Prince-Towns-Pekovic
| Oklahoma City Thunder | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
| Vegas Total | 210.0 | | Vegas Total | 210.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 108.5 | Team Proj. | 101.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.90 | Team Pace | 97.20 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj. Starter | Russell Westbrook | Kyle Singler | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Nick Collison | Proj. Starter | Ricky Rubio | Andrew Wiggins | Tayshaun Prince | Karl-Anthony Towns | Nikola Pekovic | |
| Opp. Season | 23 | 16 | 17 | 8 | 10 | Opp. Season | 22 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 5 | |
| Last 3 Weeks | 11 | 13 | 27 | 14 | 1 | Last 3 Weeks | 9 | 25 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |
Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 34-13 — Road: 13-8 — Last 10: 8-2
- Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 109.0 (2 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 108.5 (5 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5
The Thunder have won eight of their last ten games, but may be playing on tired legs tonight. They picked up a win against the Knicks last night, but they had to go to overtime to get it. The Thunder are listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the Wolves with their team total set at 108.5 points.
- Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.2 (13 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.0 (14 of 30)
The Wolves have been a slightly below-average defensive team this season, ranking 21st in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. With a slightly favorable matchup, we should expect a full complement of minutes from the Thunder starters. Andre Roberson is out again, which could mean another start for Dion Waiters, who played 42 minutes last night.
- Injury Watch:
Andre Roberson (Out)
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
My biggest regret last night was pivoting off of the Thunder after Carmelo Anthony was ruled out. I expected a blowout, but it ended up being a close game that eventually went into overtime. Tonight the Thunder are only 7-point favorites, which should mean a full complement of minutes for Westbrook. Given their price differences on the two sites, I prefer Westbrook on FanDuel and Chris Paul on DraftKings.
FD — $10,500 — PG
DK — $10,600 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 28.8
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 36.9
FP/Game — Season: 48.6 | Last Five Games: 49.9
Kevin Durant
Durant had yet another big game last night against the Knicks. Some may be concerned about the back-to-back, but Durant is still a young gun that should be ready for tonight’s contest against the Wolves. He is the premier play at small forward tonight.
FD — $10,200 — SF
DK — $9,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 29.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 37.7
FP/Game — Season: 44.9 | Last Five Games: 51.4
Secondary Plays
NONE
Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 14-32 — Home: 7-17 — Last 10: 2-8
- Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Scored Per Game: 99.2 (22 of 30)
Implied Team Total: 101.5 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.3
The Wolves have lost eight of their last ten games and have an ugly 7-17 record at home on the season. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Thunder, but at least Oklahoma City is playing in their second game in as many nights. The Wolves are projected to score 101.5 points, which is 2.5 points higher than their average points per game this season.
- Oklahoma City Thunder Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.9 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 6.8 (1 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 192.7 (7 of 30)
The Thunder have been stout defensively this season, ranking 13th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Despite the tough matchup on paper, the Wolves still have a relatively high team total tonight. Kevin Garnett and Kevin Martin are both expected to miss this game, which gives a small boost to Shabazz Muhammad, Nemanja Bjelica, and Gorgui Dieng.
- Injury Watch:
Kevin Garnett (Doubtful)
Kevin Martin (Doubtful)
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Andrew Wiggins
Wiggins has been playing well recently, averaging 30.5 fantasy points over his last five games. He is really the only Wolves’ player that we can bank on playing 35+ minutes each night. He also sees a small boost with Andre Roberson out. He will now be defended by Dion Waiters to start the game.
FD — $6,800 — SG
DK — $6,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 35.1
FP/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 30.5
Shabazz Muhammad
Muhammad has been a popular tournament play recently and you can go back to the well again tonight. His minutes and production are both up over the last five games and he should see close to 30 minutes tonight with Kevin Martin out.
FD — $4,200 — SF
DK — $4,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 19.9
Min/Game — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 29.6
FP/Game — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 22.0
