NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, October 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-10-19 03:37:41

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		216.5					Vegas Total		216.5
			Vegas Spread		3.5					Vegas Spread		-3.5
			Implied Team Total		106.5					Implied Team Total		110.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.6					Pace Projection +/-		4.9
Projected Starters	D’Angelo Russell	Jeremy Lin	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Timofey Mozgov		Projected Starters	Darren Collison	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent DRPM	-1.67	1.64	-2.76	1.69	2.43		Opponent DRPM	-2.42	-0.18	1.09	1.36	0.90

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries – None

After a small two game slate, I’m ready to dive into tonight’s massive 11 game slate. The Nets are quite a different team from last season. They added D’Angelo Russell, Timofey Mozgov, DeMarre Carroll, and Allen Crabbe, while they shipped Brook Lopez out of town. They do have a better collection of talent this season and a healthy Jeremy Lin will help, but this is still a team that is likely destined for the lottery.

Over the last few years, the Pacers were a slow-paced team that had an above-average defense. That changed a bit last season, as they ended up being ranked 14th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency. They should continue to trend in the wrong direction this year, as they could be one of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference. The fact that the Nets are only 3.5-point underdogs in a game being played in Indiana tells you everything you need to know.

D’Angelo Russell was one of the most inconsistent players in the NBA last season. It didn’t take more than a couple of times rostering him to experience the thrill of the Russell roller coaster. Hopefully, a new team and a fresh start will kick start him into having a long NBA career. He’ll certainly have all of the opportunities available to him in this offense. I won’t be looking his way in cash games in an 11 game slate, but he’s certainly a viable tournament play that could have less than 10% ownership. Jeremy Lin was dominant at times last season, but couldn’t stay healthy and ended the season on a minutes restriction. He hasn’t been quite as efficient in this year’s preseason and he’ll likely lose some of the ball-handling duties to Russell. For now, D’Angelo is the man in this backcourt that you want to have in your lineups.

The rest of the Nets have very little fantasy appeal. I’m a Caris LeVert truther, but can’t use him in a big slate when he’s coming off the bench and not expected to play big minutes. There are enough value plays available tonight that we don’t need to give DeMarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, or Timofey Mozgov a look.

Indiana Pacers Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell (GPP)

Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (Cash), Jeremy Lin

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries – Glenn Robinson III (Out)

The Pacers are a shell of their former selves. They lost three starters in the offseason — Paul George, Jeff Teague, and Monta Ellis. In return, they brought in Victor Oladipo, Darren Collison, Domantas Sabonis, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Cory Joseph. To put it kindly, they lost a superstar and brought in league average type of talent outside of Oladipo. If you are a Pacers fan, I would hold off on buying your 2017-18 NBA champions gear. The good news is that they are expected to be bad and they may play at a faster pace this season, which could result in more shootouts.

The Pacers open their season as 3.5-point favorites against the Nets, who were one of the top teams to target players against last season. They played at the league’s fastest pace and they allowed the second most points per game (112.5). When the spread was close in a Nets’ game, we could load up on their opposition. I should also note that Brooklyn had the third worst rebounding differential and one of the highest blocks allowed per game. They are a different squad this year, but I’m expecting more of the same on the defensive side of the ball.

With such a great matchup and a relatively high implied total (110 points) given the lack of talent in this offense, we should be very interested in the Pacers. Darren Collison stands out as one of the best value plays on FanDuel. He should see around 30 minutes against a bad defense and he’ll likely match up against D’Angelo Russell, who had a DRPM of -2.42 last season. Victor Oladipo is also viable on FanDuel where we are required to play two shooting guards. He’ll have a size advantage over Jeremy Lin and a quickness advantage over DeMarre Carroll.

As for the Pacers’ frontcourt, we have two volatile options in Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner. The Nets really struggled against bigs last season, but Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Timofey Mozgov, and Trevor Booker are all above-average defenders.

Brooklyn Nets Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Darren Collison, Victor Oladipo (FD)

Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (DK & FDRFT), Myles Turner (GPP), Lance Stephenson (FD)

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets							Detroit Pistons
			Vegas Total		203.0					Vegas Total		203.0
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		100.0					Implied Team Total		103.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.6					Pace Projection +/-		-0.9
Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Jeremy Lamb	Dwayne Bacon	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard		Projected Starters	Reggie Jackson	Avery Bradley	Stanley Johnson	Tobias Harris	Andre Drummond
Opponent DRPM	-2.98	-1.13	0.19	-0.53	1.37		Opponent DRPM	-1.14	-0.88		-0.13	2.92

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out), Nicolas Batum (Out), Michael Carter-Williams (Out)

The Hornets are starting their season banged up. They will be without three of their best players in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Nicolas Batum, and Michael Carter-Williams. This opens up some major value on the wing, but we’ll get to that in a moment. The big acquisition for Charlotte in the offseason was Dwight Howard. I always think of Howard as the center version of Rajon Rondo. He can look great at times, but he doesn’t seem to care about basketball as much as most. In order for him to play well, he needs to be highly motivated. Luckily, the Hornets love the pick and roll, so Howard will be involved early in basically every game. Charlotte also drafted Malik Monk, who will start the season coming off the bench.

Given all of the injuries, I really wish the Hornets had a better matchup in their first game of the season. Stan Van Gundy (Pistons coach) loves to slow the pace down and grind out games in the half-court. Last season, Detroit ranked 24th in pace of play, seventh in points allowed per game, and fifth in rebounding differential. If you look at the fancy new implied team total chart above, you will see that the Hornets have the second lowest of the 22 teams in action tonight.

Even though the matchup is less than ideal, there are still a few viable options on the Hornets tonight. With Nicolas Batum out, Kemba Walker should see a sizable usage boost tonight. Many will point to individual matchups against Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith as a reason to play Walker, but I don’t expect that to be the case. Detroit brought in Avery Bradley, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. It makes more sense to put Bradley on Walker and put their defensively-challenged point guards on Jeremy Lamb or Dwayne Bacon. I plan to have some exposure to Walker, but he’s not a core play for me tonight.

Jeremy Lamb is one of the best values on FanDuel tonight and is a lock and load play in all formats. In five spot starts last season, he averaged 15 points, eight rebounds, and three assists per game. Even though Bacon and Monk may see a boost in minutes to start the year, there are enough value plays that we don’t need to hitch our wagon to either guy tonight. Marvin Williams is the starter in name, but I fully expect Frank Kaminsky to be the more productive power forward of the two this season. For now, we can avoid both. Dwight Howard will match up against Andre Drummond, who is a decent defender and who draws a lot of fouls. I would only use Dwight in large-field tournaments.

Detroit Pistons Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.5 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (5 of 30)

Elite Plays – Jeremy Lamb (FD), Kemba Walker (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lamb (DK & FDRFT), Kemba Walker (Cash), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries – Langston Galloway (Probable), Stanley Johnson (Probable)

The Pistons just missed out on the postseason a year ago and will likely be in the mix for the eighth seed once again. They don’t have an overwhelming collection of talent, but they are well-coached and should be one of the better defensive teams in the East. While they lost one great defender in Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, they brought in another in Avery Bradley. The difference between the two is that Bradley is much better on the offensive end of the floor. He’s also a more consistent player game-to-game. Detroit also lost Marcus Morris, but Stanley Johnson could end up being a better player this season than Morris was last season.

Detroit opens their season as three point favorites against the Hornets, who were ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency last season. We should expect this to be one of the slowest paced games on the schedule tonight, as evidenced by the fact that both of these teams have below-average implied totals. Charlotte will be without their two best wing defenders, but they added a rim protector in Dwight Howard, which should help bolster their rebounding and their defense in the paint.

Ish Smith has played so well in the preseason (1.15 FP/min) that Reggie Jackson is a risky option right from the start. The point guards make a nice one-two punch, but as long as they are both healthy, it will be tough to predict which one is going to have the better fantasy outing on a nightly basis. Avery Bradley steps into a great spot with his new team. He won’t have to deal with Nicolas Batum or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and he’ll likely be asked to play big minutes. Bradley is a strong play in all formats. Stanley Johnson doesn’t have a high usage rate and he doesn’t contribute a lot in the peripheral stat categories. While the minutes will be there, I’m not buying him just yet when we have great values like Jaylen Brown, Jeremy Lamb, and Jayson Tatum available.

In his last three meetings against Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond has scored 38, 38 and 40 fantasy points. Apparently, he’s learned how to shoot free throws (80% in the preseason) and he’s learned how to become a facilitator. He was far too prone to foul trouble last season, but I’m willing to take a shot on him early while the price is still low.

Charlotte Hornets Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.7 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Avery Bradley, Andre Drummond

Secondary Plays – None

Miami Heat at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Miami Heat							Orlando Magic
			Vegas Total		205.5					Vegas Total		205.5
			Vegas Spread		-3.0					Vegas Spread		3.0
			Implied Team Total		104.3					Implied Team Total		101.3
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.1
Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Dion Waiters	Josh Richardson	James Johnson	Hassan Whiteside		Projected Starters	Elfrid Payton	Evan Fournier	Terrence Ross	Aaron Gordon	Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM	-0.63	-1.05	-1.20	-0.61	2.26		Opponent DRPM	-1.61	-0.06	-0.16	1.72	2.52

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries – Rodney McGruder (Out)

If you look at the changes to the Heat’s roster, there aren’t many difference makers. They brought in Kelly Olynyk and not much else and the only loss of significance was backup big man Willie Reed. All in all, they aren’t particularly better or worse than they were last season. Vegas has their win total at 43.5 games, which would put them in the mix for the six, seven, or eight seed in the Eastern Conference.

Miami opens their season as three point favorites against the Magic, who were one of our favorite teams to target players against last season. Despite playing at a below-average pace, Orlando was ranked in the bottom nine in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Strangely enough, Nikola Vucevic has the team’s highest DRPM last season even though the Magic were routinely a team to target centers against in DFS.

The Heat may not have the highest implied team total (104.3) on the board, but they draw a favorable matchup against the Magic and there should be plenty of usage to go around. The best part is that I don’t expect anyone in this lineup to garner much ownership with the potential exception of Hassan Whiteside. Assuming the Heat players are going to be low owned, I will be taking some shots on a couple of them in tournaments. Point guard is always such a stacked position in DFS that I probably won’t end up with any Goran Dragic shares, but Josh Richardson will be featured in a number of my lineups. He’s looking to break the Heat’s block record for a wing player and he’s looked great in the preseason (0.93 FP/min). We could see a breakout year coming and in these situations, I always like to get in early rather than late.

James Johnson is a production monster when on the floor and Tyler Johnson is one of the best backup point guards in the NBA. While both will be intriguing moving forward, they can be avoided in tonight’s big slate. It’s funny the random stuff that we remember in life. If you ask my wife, she’ll tell you that my memory is that of a fish. She’ll tell me to do something and it’ll go through one ear and right out the other. I hear what she says, I just instantly forget it. But for some reason, I remember random basketball facts. I will always remember that Hassan Whiteside and Nikola Vucevic love to face each other. We’ll get to Vucevic’s numbers when we talk about the Magic, but in Whiteside’s last four games against Orlando, he has scored 46, 64, 45, and 41 fantasy points.

Orlando Magic Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.6 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.1 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.3 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Josh Richardson (GPP), Hassan Whiteside (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (Cash), Hassan Whiteside (Cash)

Orlando Magic

Notable Injuries – Terrence Ross (Questionable)

The Magic didn’t lose much in the offseason (Jodie Meeks and Jeff Green), but they didn’t make any big acquisitions either. They brought in four bench players in Shelvin Mack, Jonathon Simmons, Arron Afflalo, and Marreese Speights. I suppose management is hoping that their young core can continue to get better, but they’ve been hoping for that to happen for a number of years. It doesn’t help that they continue to trade away young assets.

Orlando’s home opener could be spoiled by the Heat. The Magic are listed as three point underdogs and they have one of the lowest implied team totals (101.3) of the slate. I’m not expecting a change in Erik Spoelstra’s philosophy of slowing the pace down and playing great defense on the other end of the floor. A year ago, Miami was ranked fifth in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Let’s call a spade a spade, this is not a good matchup for Orlando.

There is only one player on my radar in this spot and I alluded to it when talking about the Heat. Nikola Vucevic and Hassan Whiteside have some secret pact to let each other score at will. They are fighting the good fight to pad each other’s stats. The level of consistency for Vucevic in these matchups is unmatched. In their last four meetings, he has scored 44, 49, 46, and 46 fantasy points. At his price point across the industry, we will gladly take that type of production. Whiteside is a great shot-blocker, but Vucevic has such good low post moves that he doesn’t get his shot blocked often. Even when he does, he’s usually right there for the tip-in. The only other note that I have on the Magic is the resurgence of Aaron Gordon in the preseason. He averaging 1.19 FP/min, so keep an eye on him moving forward.

Miami Heat Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (15 of 30)

Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic (Cash), Aaron Gordon (GPP), Jonathon Simmons (if Ross is out)

Philadelphia 76ers at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers							Washington Wizards
			Vegas Total		217.5					Vegas Total		217.5
			Vegas Spread		7.0					Vegas Spread		-7.0
			Implied Team Total		105.3					Implied Team Total		112.3
			Pace Projection +/-		1.0					Pace Projection +/-		2.2
Projected Starters	Ben Simmons	Jerryd Bayless	J.J. Redick	Robert Covington	Joel Embiid		Projected Starters	John Wall	Bradley Beal	Kelly Oubre	Otto Porter	Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM	-0.83	-0.94	-0.11	0.03	1.33		Opponent DRPM		-0.47	-1.80	4.38	2.30

Philadelphia 76ers

Notable Injuries – Markelle Fultz (Probable), Jahlil Okafor (Probable), Richaun Holmes (Out)

The Sixers are absolutely loaded with talent. This is going to be one of my favorite teams to watch this season. They still have their core from last year of Robert Covington, Dario Saric, and Joel Embiid, but they now get to add Ben Simmons and Markelle Fultz. They also brought in veterans Amir Johnson and J.J. Redick to show the young guys the ropes. Vegas has their projected win total at 39.5, but this could end up being way off (in either direction). The key for Philadelphia this season will be health.

The Wizards might be missing a starter, but the fact that the Sixers are only seven point underdogs on the road against a potential top four seed in the East says a lot. With all of their talent, this is a team that will be able to compete on a nightly basis. As far as the matchup goes, Washington was ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency last season. They also played at the 11th fastest pace, so we should consider this to be an exploitable matchup for Philadelphia.

Ben Simmons has looked incredible in the preseason (1.29 FP/min) and is already getting touted as the likely Rookie of the Year. He’ll have some competition for the award, but if he can stay healthy, he’s my front-runner as well. He is expected to start at point guard and unlike Joel Embiid, the Sixers aren’t looking to limit his playing time. Simmons is going to turn the ball over and he’s not the best shooter, but he’s a stat-stuffing machine that needs to be targeted in DFS right from the start. Jerryd Bayless looks like a great value on paper, but with Markelle Fultz and Nik Stauskas coming off the bench, I’m not sure Bayless is locked into a 30-minute a night type of role. I’ll still take a flier on him in tournaments though. Robert Covington feels a bit underpriced on DraftKings. He’s one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA and there were a few games last season where he had 5+ steals and 5+ blocks. Embiid is my favorite player in the NBA and I’d love to target him on opening night, but the Sixers put his minutes cap at 16 for tonight’s game against the Wizards. At his price point, he basically needs to average 2.4+ FP/min, which is an unrealistic expectation, even for Embiid.

Washington Wizards Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.4 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Ben Simmons

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (DK), Jerryd Bayless (FD)

Washington Wizards

Notable Injuries – Markieff Morris (Out)

The Wizards had such a strong second half of last season that they decided to stand pat in the offseason. They didn’t really let anyone important go and their only acquisitions were two backups in Tim Frazier and Jodie Meeks. They will start their season without Markieff Morris, who is expected to return sometime in November. His absence will mean more minutes for Otto Porter and it will also give Kelly Oubre a chance to start here in the first few weeks of the season.

The Wizards open up with a decent matchup against the Sixers. A year ago, Philadelphia was a top ten defense with Joel Embiid on the floor and a bottom ten defense with him off the floor. He is truly a game-changer on both ends of the floor. Seeing as how Embiid will only play 16 minutes tonight, we can fire up the Wizards in DFS. They come into the game with an implied total of 112.3 points, which is the second highest in the entire slate.

With all of the value available tonight, we can afford to anchor our lineups with a superstar or two. Strictly from a fantasy points projection standpoint, Wall is a top five option at any position tonight. The fact that Damian Lillard is going to carry higher ownership makes Wall a very intriguing tournament play. I always like to shop for salaries in DFS when I’m playing on multiple sites. When it comes to Wall vs. Lillard, I’ll use Wall on DraftKings ($300 cheaper) and Lillard on FanDuel ($1,200 cheaper). The only good defender that the Sixers have is Robert Covington and he’s currently projected to start at power forward, so I doubt we’ll see him on Wall tonight.

Bradley Beal is one of those hit or miss tournament options that I rarely have as a core play. Kelly Oubre would typically be a nice value, but Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Jeremy Lamb are all better options. Otto Porter and Marcin Gortat will likely draw the two most difficult matchups against Covington and Embiid. They both have decent upside in tournaments, but Wall is the player that I will have the most exposure to in this lineup.

Philadelphia 76ers Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (24 of 30)

Elite Plays – John Wall (DK)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD & FDRFT), Kelly Oubre, Otto Porter

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		204.0					Vegas Total		204.0
			Vegas Spread		3.0					Vegas Spread		-3.0
			Implied Team Total		100.5					Implied Team Total		103.5
			Pace Projection +/-		0.6					Pace Projection +/-		-2.0
Projected Starters	Malcolm Brogdon	Tony Snell	Khris Middleton	Giannis Antetokounmpo	Thon Maker		Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Marcus Smart	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM	-2.16	0.45	-0.10		1.59		Opponent DRPM	-0.73	-0.79	0.54	1.49	-0.53

Milwaukee Bucks

Notable Injuries – Jabari Parker (Out)

The Bucks would be a very good team if they could stay healthy. After Khris Middleton missed the first half of last season, they lost Jabari Parker to a torn ACL in the second half. Even with Parker on the shelf for the first few months of this season, I’m still expecting Milwaukee to take a step forward. They have one of the most versatile players in the game in Giannis Antetokounmpo and they have some nice young talent in Malcolm Brogdon and Thon Maker. Vegas has their win projection at 47.5, which should easily put them in the playoffs in the East.

The Bucks open up with a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. It’s still early in the season, but five of their players saw at least 32 minutes last night against the Cavaliers, so they might be playing on tired legs. Boston plays at a quick pace and is expected to be one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA once again. This is a decent spot for Milwaukee, even though their implied total is only 100.5 points.

If this was a smaller slate, Malcolm Brogdon would have some serious fantasy appeal. He’s coming off of an excellent rookie season and he draws an exploitable matchup against Kyrie Irving, who had a DRPM of -2.16 last season. Unfortunately, there are better values available to us tonight. Khris Middleton makes sense as a low-owned tournament play. He has 40+ fantasy point upside every time he steps onto the floor and will likely be under 10% owned. The play that everyone will clamor to is Giannis Antetokounmpo, who could end up being the highest scoring player on FanDuel this season (three points for blocks and steals in case you missed it). He’s one of the top targets to pay up for and he’s viable in all formats. Thon Maker averaged 21 fantasy points per game in the preseason, but I’d like to see him show some consistency in the regular season before targeting him in DFS.

Boston Celtics Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (27 of 30)

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton (GPP), Malcolm Brogdon

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries – Gordon Hayward (Out), Marcus Morris (Out)

Oh man, oh man, oh man. What an absolute heartbreaker. If you didn’t see the highlight of Gordon Hayward breaking his ankle, I do not recommend it. That was one of the most gruesome injuries in recent memory. The Celtics said that it was a “clean break,” but it likely ended his season. Boston is also without Marcus Morris for the first few games, which narrows the minute distribution for head coach Brad Stevens. Last night against the Cavaliers, the starters (excluding Hayward) and Marcus Smart all played at least 32 minutes.

The Bucks weren’t a particular efficient team on defense last season (17th), but they played at the fifth slowest pace, which allowed them to hold their opponents to the ninth fewest points per game. They were also ranked in the bottom ten in rebounding differential. While the Celtics have a fairly low implied team total (103.5), this is still a spot where we can load up on their players thanks to injuries and underpriced salaries.

Kyrie Irving didn’t quite have the breakout game that I was hoping for, but he started his Celtics’ career with 22 points and ten assists, which is a solid day for any point guard. He draws a tougher matchup tonight, but he’ll be fired up to play in front of these Boston fans. Depending on where his ownership ends up, I may load up on Irving in tournaments. He could be an excellent pivot off of the popular Damian Lillard. Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, and Jayson Tatum all had big fantasy outings last night and salaries for tonight’s slate were already released before that game started. This means that their production isn’t accounted for. All three are elite value plays once again. Al Horford is a decent sleeper in tournaments, but he’ll square off against Thon Maker, who is a defensive specialist.

Milwaukee Bucks Defense

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.8 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.1 (23 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP), Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), Al Horford

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