NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 13
This week feels tough. There’s one guy at each position that feels like chalk. After that, there’s a ton of parity.
Note 1: All numbers in brackets refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterback
Cam Newton [DK: QB2, FD: QB2]
Newton is quietly putting together the most-efficient (passing) season of his career, hitting triple digits in passer rating for the first time in his career (103.7). Newton has thrown for two or more touchdowns in each of his last 10 games, while averaging 253.8 passing yards per game over this stretch. That’s also not including an additional 5.4 fantasy points per game on the ground. This week he gets a Tampa Bay defense that ranks third-worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback (0.69) and is on pace to set an all-decade low in opposing passer rating (119.5). With his price so cheap on DraftKings ($1,000 separating him from QB1 and QB13), it’s hard to make a case against him being the chalk.
Patrick Mahomes [DK: QB1, FD: QB1]
Mahomes has not only been the league’s best fantasy quarterback, but he’s on pace to put together the best fantasy season of all time. His 27.3 fantasy points per game is the most by any player at any position in any season all-time. With that in perspective, he’s a screaming value this week. Game-script would be a concern for any other quarterback (Kansas City is favored by 14-points), but Kansas City has still thrown the ball more often than they’ve run, even when leading by seven, 10, 15, or 20 points. In Week 10, a 35-point victory against the Bengals that was a blowout throughout, Mahomes played the entire game and scored 33.8 fantasy points. Even if Mahomes does get pulled at some point, there will still be plenty of time to hit value against this porous defense. Oakland ranks second-word in points allowed per drive (2.95), and to quarterbacks, fourth-worst in opposing passer rating (104.5), worst in pressures generated per dropback (0.22) [Mahomes leads the league in clean pocket passer rating ], and worst in fantasy points per dropback (0.78). For perspective, Mahomes is averaging 0.73 fantasy points per dropback, or the most by any quarterback this past decade.
Lamar Jackson [DK: QB8, FD: QB12]
Through two starts, Jackson appears to be living up to my lofty Konami Code-related expectations for him. Over this span he ranks 13th at the position in fantasy points, despite scoring just two total touchdowns – everyone above him has scored between four and eight touchdowns. This was also against two teams that allowed him to take a more conservative approach, but that is unlikely be the case this week against the Falcons (48.5-point over/under, spread +/- 1.0). Atlanta ranks third-worst in points allowed per drive, and to quarterbacks second-worst in fantasy points per game, fourth-worst in rushing fantasy points per game, and third-worst in opposing passer rating.
Other: Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins
Running Back
Aaron Jones [DK: RB9, FD: RB7]
Jones is bordering on a must-play this week. Over the past two seasons, he leads all running backs in yards per carry (5.79). Over the past three weeks, he ranks fifth among all running backs in fantasy points per game (25.9). Over this span he’s played on 79% of his team’s snaps while drawing 90% of the carries and 100% of the targets out of the backfield. After two tough matchups with bad gamescript, Jones has an ideal matchup this week. Green Bay is favored by 14, up against an Arizona defense that is giving up the most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (20.9) and ranks 12th-worst in yards allowed per carry. Green Bay should also lean heavier on Jones, given the matchup in the passing game.The league’s best shadow cornerback – Patrick Peterson – is likely to shadow Davante Adams this week, and Aaron Rodgers has struggled when throwing to all other receivers this season. It’s also Jones’ birthday on Sunday, if that means anything to you (#BirthdayNarrative).
Phillip Lindsay [DK: RB15, FD: RB10]
Over the past two weeks, even with Royce Freeman back, Lindsay has still maintained 60% of the team’s snaps and 64% of the team’s touches out of the backfield. In addition to good volume in recent weeks, he’s also been hyper-efficient all year, ranking third-best in yards per carry (5.8) and 10th-best in PFF grade. This week he gets a Cincinnati Bengals defense that is giving up the second-most fantasy points per game (32.1) and the fifth-most yards per carry (4.91) to opposing running backs.
Christian McCaffrey [DK: RB2, FD: RB3]
McCaffrey totaled 35.6 expected fantasy points in Week 12, the fifth-most by any player this season. His production was even better, scoring 46.9, or the most by any player in over a year. He currently ranks fifth among all players in both expected and actual fantasy points per game. Since Week 8, he leads all players in both expected- (22.1) and actual fantasy points per game (31.0). For the season, he ranks second among all players in expected fantasy point market share (29%). He also leads all running backs in snaps (671) and snap share (97.9%). Basically, it makes little sense to like Cam Newton as much as we do or the Panthers offense as much as Vegas does (28.75 implied total), and not also love McCaffrey – and especially this week, as Tampa Bay ranks fifth-worst in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Other: Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, Kareem Hunt, Carlos Hyde, Gus Edwards, Theo Riddick, Nick Chubb
Wide Receiver
Robert Woods [DK: WR12, FD: WR12]
Woods has been Los Angeles’ WR1 all year, leading the team’s receivers in expected fantasy points per game regardless of whether or not Cooper Kupp was active. However, he has seen his best usage with Kupp out of the lineup. When Kupp has sat out, Woods has averaged 16.5 expected fantasy points per game, an increase of 1.6, and what would be 11th-best at the position if over a full season. Woods also spends more time in the slot when Kupp is out (67% vs. 39%). That’s especially important this week, against a Lions defense that ranks seventh-worst in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot wide receivers. With Brandin Cooks in a much tougher matchup (shadow coverage from Darius Slay), Jared Goff would be wise to look Woods’ way even more often this week.
Kenny Golladay [DK: WR13, FD: WR12]
Golladay has made the most of an expanded role, following the departure of Golden Tate and a Week 10 knee injury to Marvin Jones. Since that injury to Jones, Golladay ranks seventh among all wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (19.5) and 12th in actual fantasy points per game (19.7). Among all slate-eligible wide receivers, he ranks fifth and eighth, respectively. Already a value based on usage, the matchup should work towards his favor as well. Over the past five weeks, Los Angeles ranks second-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing WR1s. Yes, early reports suggest the Rams should be getting Aqib Talib back, but, how much he plays is still up in the air.
Adam Thielen [DK: WR4, FD: WR6]
Thielen has not only been fantasy’s most productive wide receiver (23.3 fantasy points per game), but, by our grades, he’s also been the best in quality of play (leading the position with a (91.2 PFF grade). Thielen has been as steady as they come, scoring at least 14.0 fantasy points in every game this year, but volume and production has fallen off a bit in recent weeks. Stefon Diggs has actually out-scored Thielen in expected fantasy points in six of his last seven games. It’s hard to imagine that trend continuing this week, with Diggs legitimately questionable (historically, Diggs has struggled when on the injury report) and up against Stephon Gilmore (our second-highest-graded cornerback this year) in shadow coverage, and with Thielen in a much better matchup on paper. In each of the past three seasons, New England has ranked bottom-six in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing slot wide receivers. Of course, there’s also the narrative that New England sells out to stop an opposing offense’s top weapon, but I’m not sure that will be true in this instance. Since 2016, there have been 12 instances of a wide receiver scoring at least 20 fantasy points against New England. Of those, over half were from wide receivers running at least 45% of their routes from the slot and who were arguably New England’s biggest threat: Tyreek Hill (2x), Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald, Jarvis Landry (3x).
Other: Tyreek Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, Corey Davis, Tyler Lockett, Emmanuel Sanders, Bruce Ellington
Update: (This is why I hate submitting early): With DeSean Jackson out and Danny Amendola doubtful, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Devante Parker, and Kenny Stills are now all good-to-great plays.
Tight Ends
Eric Ebron [DK: TE6, FD: TE9]
With Jack Doyle on IR (and Mo Alie-Cox out, and Erik Swoope questionable), Ebron easily becomes the best play on the slate (ownership not included). Despite splitting time with Doyle in over half of his games, Ebron averages 17.7 fantasy points per game this year. That number ranks third-most among tight ends and 22nd among all receivers. When Doyle was active, Ebron averaged only 4.4 targets per game, 20.2 routes run per game, and 9.9 expected fantasy points per game, but with Doyle out, those numbers jump to 9.6, 37.8, and 18.0, respectively. Those numbers would rank second, first, and first among all tight ends. And 18.0 expected fantasy points isn’t just best among all tight ends (by 1.1 points), but it would rank sixth-best among all receivers. This week’s matchup serves as a final cherry on top of Ebron’s chalk status. Jacksonville has given up 25.2% of their total receiving fantasy points allowed to opposing tight ends (sixth-most), and when these two teams faced off in Week 10, Indianapolis tight ends combined to total eight catches, 143 yards, and three touchdowns (on 10 targets).
Other: Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Austin Hooper, Cameron Brate, Matt LaCosse, Rhett Ellison