NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 14
Although this article is more focused on high-priced or single-entry tournaments, it’s looking like a Mass Multi-Entry week for tournaments. At each position, there’s a number of similarly-priced players I like just about equally.
Note 1: All numbers in brackets refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes [DK: QB1, FD: QB1]
Mahomes is a much tougher sell on FanDuel, but on DraftKings he’s hard to avoid at a price-tag of only $7,000. Last year, there were 46 instances of a quarterback being priced higher during the regular season. Mahomes, meanwhile, is putting together the greatest fantasy season of all time. He’s averaging 31.0 DraftKings fantasy points per game, which is not just best all-time, but best by 2.1 DraftKings fantasy points per game (over Peyton Manning’s historic 2013 season). Sure, the matchup is tough, but he’s overcome tough matchups before: Mahomes totaled 304 passing yards against the Denver Broncos in Week 4, which was the first time a visiting quarterback threw for 300 yards against them since the 2014 season. His 22.9 fantasy points was also the most by a visiting quarterback since the 2015 season. In Week 8, at home, he dropped 26.0 fantasy against them, or the most by any opponent since 2014. In Week 5, he threw for 313 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which was the most by any quarterback since the 2016 season. At this point, I’ve learned not to bet against Mahomes exceeding expectations.
Jameis Winston [DK: QB6, FD: QB10]
Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combine to average 26.3 fantasy points per game. If taken as one quarterback, that number would rank second-best this year and fourth-best all-time. Winston has also played much better since his most-recent benching, ranking fifth-best (of 36 quarterbacks) in PFF passing grade and fourth-best (of 35 quarterbacks) in passer rating (119.1) since his Week 11 return. This week, Winston draws a Saints defense that ranks fourth-worst in fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (22.2) and sixth-worst in opposing passer rating (103.1). Although New Orleans has played better in recent weeks, and Winston’s risk of busting might be higher than any other QB1, his ceiling is massive this week, in a game with a 54.0-point over/under. Though, all of this being said, there’s a number of quarterbacks I like about equally, and if weather proves to be dire (the over/under has already fallen by 2.0 points), I might move off him entirely.
Other: Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, Mark Sanchez, Josh Allen (I try to keep this list as short as possible each week, and usually do, but, the two quarterbacks I wrote blurbs for this week are not far above any of these names.)
Running Backs
Higher-Priced Running Backs
For cash games and single entry tournaments, the winning approach this season has been trying to get as many of the high-priced bell cow running backs into your lineups as possible. That helps make all of Ezekiel Elliott [DK: RB3, FD: RB3], Christian McCaffrey [DK: RB1, FD: RB1], Saquon Barkley [DK: RB2, FD: RB2], and Alvin Kamara [DK: RB4, FD: RB5] (in order) very strong plays this week. It will be exceedingly difficult to fit more than two into your lineup on DraftKings, but it’s a good deal easier on FanDuel.
Since Week 8, McCaffrey and Elliott rank first- and second-best in fantasy points per game and expected fantasy points per game. For the year, they lead all running backs in expected fantasy point market share, snap share, carry share, and target share. I’m expecting Cam Newton to lean heavy on McCaffrey through the air again this week, as he’s dealing with a shoulder injury that could suppress his average depth of target. This week’s matchup also implies good usage – Cleveland is giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, but ranks top-10 to all other positions. Elliott is averaging an absurd 22.8 carries and 6.8 targets per game over his last four games. That’s just about the best I’ve ever seen from a running back through any four-game stretch. He gets an Eagles defense that has given up 35.0 fantasy points per game to running backs over their last five games.
Barkley ranks behind only Todd Gurley in both expected- and actual fantasy points per game this year. Nothing really stands out about the matchup on paper, but, as Barkley proved again last week, matchups have been wholly irrelevant for him all year. That said, I do wonder if the fact that the Giants are favored (by 3.5-points and against Mark Sanchez) might be working against him this week. Barkley has fared much better for fantasy when playing from behind. Alvin Kamara has a massive over/under working to his advantage, as well as a good matchup – Tampa Bay is giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Still, he ranks just 10th among running backs in both expected- and actual fantasy points per game since Mark Ingram ’s return. He’s now who he was last year – a bet on efficiency rather than volume.
Middle Tier Running Backs
I like Aaron Jones [DK: RB7, FD: RB9] as an anti-recency-bias play, following a coaching change and in a good matchup, but I think I prefer Sony Michel [DK: RB14, FD: RB13] on both sites. Excluding a Week 7 game where Michel exited early due to injury, he’s averaging (per-game) 19.3 carries, 1.17 expected touchdowns, and 14.8 expected fantasy points over his last six games. Over this span, that ranks third-, second-, and 13th-best, respectively. Serving in the LeGarrette Blount-role, he has an ideal matchup this week, favored by seven points against a Miami defense that’s giving up the fifth-most rushing fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Value Plays
There’s a lot of value this week. Names like Justin Jackson [DK: RB37, FD: RB62], LeGarrette Blount [DK: RB36, FD: RB30], Stevan Ridley [DK: RB52, FD: RB62], and Ty Montgomery [DK: RB33, FD: RB34] are all legitimately playable in tournaments, though I think, if I’m paying down, our options are really only limited to Jaylen Samuels [DK: RB40, FD: RB56] and Jeff Wilson [DK: RB37, FD: RB30]. Both are very good plays, but not necessarily must-plays. Here are my thoughts on both:
I think Samuels is a great play this week, with James Conner out, but probably not a must-play like we’ve seen from Pittsburgh’s backup running backs in the past (like DeAngelo Williams). Though Samuels has been named the starter, it seems clear, per this tweet, he’ll be working in a committee with Stevan Ridley. I think Ridley, who has had more touches than Samuels this year, could receive the majority of the team’s carries, though Samuels (who had more career receptions than rushing attempts in college) is likeliest to dominate work as a receiver. That means Ridley could possibly have the better matchup, as Pittsburgh is favored by 10.5-points against Oakland’s run-funnel defense. Still, I suspect Samuels will have the better role overall and be more productive. Even if it’s a 60/40 split in terms of usage (expected fantasy points), which I think is probably too low, Samuels still feels like a lock to hit value.
Matt Breida played on only 10 snaps in Week 13, nursing an ankle injury, and has already been ruled out for Week 14. In relief, Wilson played on 54 of the other 66 snaps, drawing 15 carries and nine targets, while scoring 21.4 fantasy points. That’s RB1 volume and production, but it’s not a lock his role is as good this week. San Francisco has utilized a committee approach all year, with Kyle Juszczyk occasionally mixing in. Still, there’s a strong possibility he does receive a bell cow workload, and though his matchup appears neutral at best, I like him slightly more than Samuels this week.
Other: Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Stevan Ridley, Aaron Jones, LeGarrette Blount, Ty Montgomery, Justin Jackson, Mark Ingram
Wide Receivers
You can make a strong case for any of the following wide receivers: Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, and Julio Jones, but the winning lineups this year have typically taken a pay-up at running back and pay-down at wide receiver approach. For that reason, I’ll focus more on the value plays today.
Courtland Sutton [DK: WR33, FD: WR31]
Emmanuel Sanders is heading to I.R., and he leaves behind 8.2 targets per game and a 23% target market share. This already follows the losses of Demaryius Thomas and Jeff Heuerman. So now, excluding Sutton, Denver is without their most, second-most, and third-most-targeted receivers. Denver won’t have much of a choice but to look Sutton’s way often, and especially so if San Francisco runs away with the lead (the 49ers are currently 3.5-point favorites). The matchup also seems to work in his favor as well. 41% of Sutton’s fantasy points have come on deep passes, and San Francisco ranks worst in deep passer rating allowed (129.9), second-worst in fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers on deep passes (11.1), and third-worst in deep fantasy points allowed per target (3.14).
Chris Godwin [DK: WR24, FD: WR31]
In the four games Jackson or Evans has missed over the past two years, Chris Godwin averages 16.6 expected and 17.5 actual fantasy points per game. Across these four games, he’s also averaged 120.8 air yards, 8.5 targets, 1.3 end-zone targets, and 2.0 deep targets per game. Essentially, that’s good for low-end WR1 numbers. Godwin is our 12th-highest-graded wide receiver this year and ranks 23rd (of 93 wide receivers) in yards per route run. This week, with Jackson likely out, he draws a New Orleans defense that is giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers and the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing WR2s.
Bruce Ellington [DK: WR55, FD: WR68] / Zay Jones [DK: WR44, FD: WR56] / Chris Conley [DK: WR55, FD: WR77]
Although the production hasn’t really been there, Ellington has seen target totals of nine, seven, and 10 since “(player-popup #marvin-jones)Marvin Jones”:/players/marvin-jones-13592’ injury. With Patrick Peterson likely to shadow Kenny Golladay on the majority of his perimeter routes, this should open up more opportunities for Ellington in the slot (49% of his routes). Arizona is already giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers.
Since Week 6, Jones ranks 22nd among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (13.0). Although his production hasn’t been as good as his volume over this span, there’s good reason to believe both are better this week. The release of Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes should result in more targets for Jones, as should this week’s matchup. The Jets are giving up the most fantasy points per game to slot wide receivers (where Jones has run 54% of his routes), but the 12th-fewest to outside wide receivers.
With Sammy Watkins and Kelvin Benjamin expected to be inactive, Chris Conley becomes another top value-play. He’s played on 91% of the snaps over his last three games, averaging 5.0 targets and 13.7 fantasy points per game over this span. Baltimore is a tough defense for wide receivers, but this is the best offense for football, and he is still very mispriced.
Other: Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, T.Y. Hilton, Amari Cooper, Dante Pettis, Chris Conley, D.J. Moore,
Tight Ends
As I tried to show here, there’s a legitimate case to be made in playing a tight end in the flex on DraftKings. Even George Kittle, who wasn’t included in this tweet, is a strong value-play as well, and probably especially so with Marquise Goodwin likely to return. On FanDuel, where it’s much easier to fit three of the high-end bell cow running backs, you probably don’t need to go that route.
Travis Kelce [DK: TE1, FD: TE1]
Sure, Kelce is the highest priced tight end on both sites, but he’s actually still pretty cheap (and especially on DraftKings). Kelce ranks sixth among all slate-eligible receivers in DraftKings fantasy points per game (21.3), but somehow ranks just 13th in salary. You’d think then that he might have a tough matchup this week, but that’s only partially true. Although Baltimore is good overall, they’re fairly susceptible to tight ends. They’re giving up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends, but rank top-two against all other positions. In total, they’re surrendering 28.3% of their total receiving fantasy points allowed to tight ends, which ranks second-most among all defenses.
Eric Ebron [DK: TE3, FD: TE5]
Ebron is priced as the 22nd-most expensive receiver on DraftKings, and the 23rd-most expensive receiver on FanDuel. He’s averaging 15.3 fantasy points per game, which ranks third among tight ends, and would rank 21st among wide receivers. When Doyle has missed time, Ebron averages 19.3 expected fantasy points per game, 10.5 targets per game, 106.0 air yards per game, and 1.5 end-zone targets per game. If over a full season, and among all receivers, those numbers would rank second, fourth, 14th, and first, respectively. On top of all that, his opponent this week (Houston) ranks third-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends. With Jack Doyle, Dontrelle Inman, and Mo Alie-Cox ruled out, (and T.Y. Hilton listed as a game-time decision), Ebron borders on must-play territory.
Other: Zach Ertz, George Kittle