NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 16
For three straight years my body rightfully decided to wait right until the end of the regular season to get insanely sick. Unfortunately, it hit me early this year, and I’m writing this with a fever. I actually feel really good about the analysis written below, but now I have an excuse in case anything goes wrong.
Note 1: All numbers in brackets refer to a player’s salary rank on each site.
Note 2: All references to expected fantasy points can be explained here.
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys [DK: QB14, FD: QB14]
Quarterback is tricky again this week, but Prescott is easily my top value. He’s the 14th-highest-priced quarterback on both sites, but ranks fifth among all slate-eligible quarterbacks in my rankings. He should also draw low ownership after last week’s dud. Tampa Bay is giving up a league-high 37.0 points per game on the road this year. Over the full season, they rank fourth-worst in fantasy points allowed per game, second-worst in fantasy points allowed per dropback, and worst in opposing passer rating. Despite flopping last week, Prescott still ranks fourth-best in fantasy points per game (20.8) since Week 6.
Other: Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Andrew Luck, Dak Prescott, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen
Running Backs
Expensive Running Backs
Outside of the bizarre week that was Week 15, paying up for the league’s rare few bell cow running backs has been a winning strategy all year. This week, that leaves us with Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, and Saquon Barkley. Nick Chubb might also deserve consideration within that tier given matchup, as would Joe Mixon and Dalvin Cook given recent usage and production.
Gurley’s injury leaves me off of him outside of as a potential contrarian play. Over the past six weeks of the season, Ezekiel Elliott and Christian McCaffrey rank first and second (and by a significant margin) among all players in both expected- and actual fantasy points per game. McCaffrey was more productive, while Elliott has seen the better usage (and really all-decade great levels of usage). Ideally, Elliott will draw lower ownership this week, after a somewhat disappointing outing last week. That was his absolute floor (19.8 fantasy points) in a surprise shutout. This week, Vegas is giving Dallas a 27.5-point implied total (7.8 points above their point per game average) up against Tampa Bay, who are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. McCaffrey (the league’s best pass-catching running back) gets an ideal matchup as well, up against an Atlanta defense that has given up the most receptions to opposing running backs in every year of Dan Quinn’s HC tenure. They also rank worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. I suppose Taylor Heinicke starting dings McCaffrey, but I’m not sure it’s by much.
Over the last two weeks, Mixon leads all players in expected (27.1) and ranks second in actual fantasy points per game (26.1). Over the last three weeks Cook ranks fifth at the position in fantasy points per game (22.4). Over the full season, he also leads all of 75 qualifying running backs in missed tackles forced per touch (0.26). However, for the both of them, I do have some gamescript concerns which I outlined here. Chubb ranks top-six in both yards per carry and PFF grade, but is probably a tad over-priced based on expected volume. Still, the matchup couldn’t be better against Cincinnati. The Bengals rank third-worst in yards allowed per carry, second-worst in rushing fantasy points per game allowed, and second-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running backs (both over the full season and over the last five weeks).
Mid-Tier Running Backs
Of the mid-tier running backs, I’m really only looking at Marlon Mack and Jaylen Samuels (if James Conner is out).
From the Week 16 Actual Opportunity Report, “In Week 15, Mack ranked ninth in expected (20.0) and fifth in actual fantasy points per game (27.9). These are near season-high totals for him, but he’s still who he’s always been – the lead running back of a committee in a high-powered offense who is extremely gamescript-dependent. Since returning from injury in Week 6, he averages 17.9 expected and 25.2 actual fantasy points per game in victories by more than a field goal (four such games). In all other (five) games, he averages 8.7 expected- and 8.3 actual fantasy points per game. That’s good news this week, as 9.0-point favorites up against a Giants defense that ranks bottom-three in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing running backs (both over the full season and over their last five games).”
In two games without Conner, Samuels has played on 71% of the team’s snaps and totaled 90% of the team’s RB expected fantasy points. Despite failing to find the end zone in both games, he ranks 13th in both expected- (16.2) and actual fantasy points per game (17.7). By all accounts, the matchup is tough, but the Over/Under is high (highest on the slate by 4.5-points) and Samuels should be held afloat by heavy target volume.
Cheap Running Backs
There is a ton of cheap value at the running back position this week. Pending injury-status to starters, all of Kalen Ballage, Elijah McGuire, Tevin Coleman, Jamaal Williams, John Kelly, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Alfred Blue could be firmly in play this week. In a typical week (but not this one) Peyton Barber might also have been cheap enough to warrant consideration on DraftKings.
All of Todd Gurley (and Justin Davis), Matt Breida, and Lamar Miller have uncertain statuses, complicating the analysis for Kelly, Wilson, and Blue. So, for the sake of time, I’ll focus on my favorites from the rest of these names.
With Aaron Jones out, Williams is likely to assume the bell-cow workload he saw last week (87% of the snaps) and at the tail end of last year. From Week 11 to 17 in 2017, Williams played on 91% of the snaps. Over that seven-game span, Williams averaged 18.7 carries, 4.7 targets, 18.3 expected fantasy points, and 19.0 actual fantasy points per game. By all accounts, these are RB1 numbers. Keep in mind, Aaron Rodgers played on only 15% of the snaps over this span. So, even if Rodgers sits (unlikely), Williams will be a top value.
Over the last two weeks, McGuire has played on 74% of the snaps, while ranking top-15 among running backs in both expected (17.0) and actual fantasy points per game (16.7). He comes off of a tough matchup against Houston (second-best in yards allowed per carry) to face a more neutral Green Bay defense this week.
Wide Receivers
Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams [DK: WR14, FD: WR10]
Since Cooper Kupp season-ending injury, Woods ranks fifth-best among wide receivers in expected fantasy points per game (19.0). He’s also run 71% of his routes from the slot over this span. This means avoiding Patrick Peterson’s coverage and working against Arizona where they are weakest – the Cardinals are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot wide receivers and the seventh-fewest to outside wide receivers.
Robby Anderson, WR, New York Jets [DK: WR34, FD: WR25]
In Week 15, Anderson ranked fourth in expected (24.3) and fifth in actual fantasy points per game (22.6). Over the last four weeks, Anderson ranks 11th in expected fantasy points per game (16.4), but just 22nd in actual fantasy points per game (13.3). Of course, that would still make him a value this week, but his inefficiency here makes a lot of sense when considering the cornerbacks he’s faced over this span. He drew shadow coverage from three of our top cornerbacks over this stretch: Stephon Gilmore in Week 12, Adoree’ Jackson in Week 13, and Tre’Davious White in Week 14. Houston (in Week 15) was his first soft matchup since Week 5 and his first non-shadow game since Week 6. Luckily, he gets another favorable matchup this week, against a Green Bay defense that ranks ninth-worst in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing outside wide receivers, and sixth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing WR1s. Jaire Alexander might shadow, and he’s graded well, but in his only two shadow games this year he’s given up 10 receptions, 172 yards, and a score.
Alshon Jeffery, WR, Philadelphia Eagles [DK: WR22, FD: WR20]
By my calculations, having Nick Foles under center means a boost of about 1.5 fantasy points per game for Jeffery (from 13.5 to 15.0). This makes him a top value up against a Houston secondary that’s allowed the eight-most fantasy points per game to outside wide receivers (where Jeffery runs 80% of his routes).
Other: DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Amari Cooper, Davante Adams, T.Y. Hilton, Adam Thielen, Robert Foster, Curtis Samuel, Dante Pettis, Josh Reynolds, DeSean Jackson
Tight Ends
High-Priced Tight Ends
This didn’t pay off last week, but paying up for tight ends has been +EV for most of the year. All three of Zach Ertz, George Kittle, and Eric Ebron look like values on DraftKings this week. Ertz is the best value, ranking 20th among receivers in salary, but 12th in DraftKings fantasy points per game. Kittle ranks 19th in both salary and DK fantasy points per game. Ebron ranks 23rd in salary and 21st in DK fantasy points per game. Ebron is also the best value on FanDuel, ranking 26th among all receivers in salary, but 19th in DraftKings fantasy points per game.
Ertz has been less productive with Nick Foles under center, but volume has been significantly better than with Wentz. This week he gets a Houston defense that ranks fourth-worst in schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
Kittle is a tough sell against Chicago, but still warrants consideration. Since Week 10, he ranks 13th among all receivers in targets per game (8.8) and 14th in fantasy points per game (16.8). Among tight ends, only Travis Kelce ranks higher.
Ebron is probably the best value overall, but is not without risk, coming off of a 1.8-fantasy-point performance in a run-heavy blowout against Dallas. His matchup against New York should have a similar outcome. Still, if only counting games without Jack Doyle, Ebron ranks first among tight ends and 10th among all receivers in expected fantasy points per game (16.9). He has heavy touchdown-upside in a week Indianapolis should be gifted plenty of good field position and red zone drives, but also carries a good deal of risk.
Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants [DK: TE5, FD: TE6]
Over the last two weeks with Odell Beckham Jr. out, Engram leads the team in targets by four (17 total) and receiving yardage by 98 (152 total). If Beckham is out again (likely), I like his chances at another big game this week. Indianapolis ranks second-worst in schedule adjusted fantasy points per game allowed to opposing tight ends (both over the full season and over the last five weeks of the season).
Other: Chris Herndon, Cameron Brate, C.J. Uzomah, David Njoku