NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 17
Our final shot at a full slate of games brings with it an interesting roster-construction quandary. Do we shoehorn as many of the upper-tier receivers who appear to be in excellent matchups onto our teams, and make it work with sub-optimal fliers? And from which position should we try to cut corners to save cap room? Or should we opt for a more balanced approach, and only nibble at the expensive fruit at the top of the salary tree? At least right now, there is no one correct answer.
The apparent lack of value this week is, for now, an impediment to the first roster construction strategy. As more news comes in from Friday practices, and especially on Sunday morning, cap-saving opportunities will present themselves. That is usually the case and, especially during this chaotic final week of the season, it will be again. Staying extra plugged-in during the hours leading up to kickoff will go a long way toward deciding who finishes the 2015 NFL season on a high note.
Below are a couple of expensive quarterbacks, since many will attempt to save at the position – it has worked for most of the year – and we can construct unique rosters by spending up here. There are a few cheap running back suggestions, and some mid-range wide receiver and tight end options that should fit any strategy. Hopefully these, and the other plays that I’ve discussed this season, are worthy of your time and have helped you to be profitable. I have truly enjoyed writing them.
Happy New Year, everyone… and on with the Week 17 FanDuel tournament plays.
QB Cam Newton – Carolina Panthers, $9,100 (-$200 from Week 16)
What better time to hop aboard fantasy’s top quarterback than for the last ride of the season, one week after he burned investors with his lowest FanDuel point total since Week 1? Rostering Newton at moderate ownership has been one of the great joys of the 2015 season. The Panthers need the win to ensure home field advantage over the Cardinals, and with Arizona playing at the same time, Newton’s offense will look to thoroughly tune-up the Buccaneers. It’s been three weeks since their last dominating performance, and that came against a Falcons team that handed the Panthers their first loss last week.
The game is in Carolina, where they’ve gone no-huddle on 27.2 percent of plays (versus 8.1 percent on the road), resulting in more snaps, more points, and greater fantasy output for Newton – who has a higher quarterback rating from the no-huddle (103.9 versus 95.0). Tampa Bay’s coverage ranks last (-50.3), and Newton threw two touchdowns and ran for 51 yards in their last meeting. With Jonathan Stewart, Ted Ginn, and Fozzy Whittaker injured, Newton – who averages 8.4 rushes per game — could run a bit more. The Panthers’ implied total is north of four touchdowns, and we know who will be at the center of it all.
QB Carson Palmer – Arizona Cardinals, $8,300 (-$400)
Right or wrong, and it’s been wrong several times this season, the Seattle defense still scares fantasy players. The occasions it’s been wrong have come against the few quality quarterbacks the Seahawks have faced – with Palmer prominent among them. He dropped his third-highest yardage total of the year on the Seahawks, along with three touchdowns, during a Week 10 game in Seattle. Richard Sherman gave up four catches on four targets, 57 yards, and one touchdown to Michael Floyd. Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and even Andy Dalton have performed well against Seattle.
Along with a seemingly prohibitive opponent, David Johnson will contribute to Palmer being too-lightly-owned. The rookie averaged 31.55 FanDuel points in his last two games and is working on a four-game streak of double-digit point totals. He’s priced from $500 to $1,100 cheaper than other top running backs and will be a popular play against a Seahawks defense that allowed a solid performance from Todd Gurley last week. Seattle still only allows 3.7 yards per carry (fourth-best) and one of Johnson’s best attributes is his pass catching. Johnson’s best chance of making hay in Week 17 will wind up counting on Palmer’s ledger.
RB Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons, $8,800 (+$300)
Julio Jones’ pursuit of the NFL’s single-season reception record is the most glaring Narrative Street sign of the week. With New Orleans’ coverage unit (-44.3; 31st) well-known for allowing a truckload of passing yards (281 per game; second-most), it’s clear where the fantasy attention will be focused in a game that has the highest projected total on the slate (53). Pivoting to Freeman will cut some chalk, either on his own or as a diversifying — albeit expensive — add-on to Jones. Freeman’s hefty price tag and his teammate’s buzz should pull ownership away from fantasy’s highest-scoring running back.
Freeman has not been going nuclear on a weekly basis, like he was earlier this season. But he’s logged three 15-plus-point games in his last four, and has scored in two straight while averaging 28.5 touches. The road-underdog Saints allow the most yards per carry in the league (5.0), and that average is 5.5 since Week 9 – nearly a full yard more than the next-most-accommodating run defense (0.8). Freeman’s 71 catches rank third among running backs, and New Orleans allows six catches per game to runners (sixth-most), while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to the position.
RB Jeremy Hill – Cincinnati Bengals, $6,400 (+$300)
Hill did not post an impressive stat line on Monday night, with 19 carries for 63 yards and two catches for negative-two yards. Yet he faced a league-best Broncos run defense (+83.6), which allows an NFL-low 3.2 yards per carry. Hill’s +1.2 rushing grade was his highest since Week 1, and he set a season-high for snaps (38). His snap percentage has now risen for two consecutive weeks, and Hill’s chief competition for backfield touches, Giovani Bernard, has seen his rate drop in back-to-back games. Should that trend continue, Hill is poised to give fantasy investors a Week 17 going-away gift at low ownership.
The Ravens are still ranked in the top-10 for run defense (+37.9; 8th-best), but that grade is -13.5 over the last three weeks. They have been gashed recently by Lamar Miller, Thomas Rawls, Charcandrick West, and DeAngelo Williams. After allowing the third-fewest rushing touchdowns through 13 games (six), Baltimore has given up three in their last two. As disappointing as Hill has been this year, he ranks second in rushing touchdowns (10). His team is a double-digit home favorite in a game they need to gain a playoff bye. Ryan Mallett’s mistake-prone presence puts the Bengals’ defense on the radar as an tidy correlation play with Hill.
RB Rashad Jennings – New York Giants, $5,800 (+100)
Jennings is working on a modest three-game streak of scoring double-digit points since he was reintegrated into the Giants’ offense in Week 14. Starting with that Monday Night Football game, he is averaging 17.3 rushing attempts and 2.7 targets per contest – good for eighth-most among running backs. Touches have been the main issue this year, as his 0.36 standard-scoring fantasy-points-per-opportunity mark (0.44 in PPR) ranks a solid 12th of 52 qualifying runners. In a highly-paced matchup featuring several shinier toys, Jennings will get enough touches, at a palatable ownership level, to more than pay off his cost.
The Eagles have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season, but the second-most over the last two weeks. Their run defense grade (+5.3; 21st) is an ugly -20.2 since Week 13 – the game after Detroit embarrassed them on Thanksgiving. While Philadelphia’s mid-week firing of head coach Chip Kelly brings an air of uncertainty to this matchup, their fading defense will be without its best run-stopper in Bennie Logan (+18.3), the majority of their linebackers struggle in coverage, and they rank in the top-10 for most targets, receiving yards, and touchdown catches allowed to running backs.
RB Steven Jackson – New England Patriots, $5,300 (No Price Change)
Jackson is a bit of a Hail Mary. Okay, he’s pretty much the entire Hail Mary, and we shouldn’t have anything approaching moderate exposure to him. He is, however, worth mentioning as an interesting flier in a sneaky-good spot. Jackson is New England’s big back now — their LeGarrette Blount of the moment. Brandon Bolden is most valuable to them playing special teams and acting as their band-aid back in case of in-game injury. They pushed Joey Iosefa to the practice squad. James White is in the “Shane Vereen role” and is interesting — as well as more highly-owned.
Jackson will likely be the one doing the goal-line-plunging that gave Blount his two-touchdown-upside. Bill Belichick gave Jackson seven carries against the Jets ferocious front and he looked okay enough to get the job done – especially against a Dolphins run defense that ranks 22nd (+4.0) and is tied for the third-most rushing touchdowns allowed (eight) since the last time New England faced them in Week 8. The Patriots are double-digit favorites, still have passing game and protection issues, and not only will probably be pounding out a second-half lead, but punching in a couple of short touchdowns against a capitulating opponent.
WR Odell Beckham – New York Giants, $8,900 (-$200 from Week 15)
There are several high-end wideouts in advantageous matchups to pay up for. Although Beckham will have a healthy ownership percentage, the plethora of attractive receiving options should spread things out. Other than on Julio Jones’ Narrative Street, traffic should be manageable. Only Doug Baldwin scored more fantasy points among receivers during the last four weeks that Beckham played. Only Antonio Brown and Jarvis Landry saw more targets, and nobody produced more yards. During that stretch, the only defenses aside from the Eagles to allow more passing yards were the Dolphins and Beckham’s Giants — a compelling reason to stack this game.
On a per-game basis, the Eagles allow the most plays (71.3) and targets to wideouts (23.9). They also give up the third-most catches (14.5) and receiving touchdowns (1.5), the fourth-most receiving yards (182.1), and the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Beckham will run most of his routes at Philadelphia’s free-agent-fondue Byron Maxwell – whose -5.6 coverage grade ranks 88th of 118 qualifiers and against whom receivers are averaging 15.4 yards per catch (103rd-“best”). Prior to his meltdown against Josh Norman, Beckham was going nuclear on a weekly basis. Now he’s $500 cheaper, a little less popular, and in a choice matchup with a 50-plus-point over/under.
WR Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks, $7,400 (-$300)
Baldwin is “GPP-only” due to concerns over Seattle resting players, but he’s $300 cheaper than last week after scoring “just” one touchdown. Nevermind that he saw 10 targets – his most since the last time Seattle faced Arizona – and caught eight for 118 yards. Baldwin has lost some buzz after the Seahawks laid an egg against the Rams in Week 16. His unsustainable touchdown pace that produced 10 in four games finally regressed – yet he essentially returned three-times-value for his current cost (21.8 FanDuel points).
The Cardinals pass coverage (+21.5) ranks fourth, but their pass rush (+7.3) is only 25th-best and they blitz at the league’s highest rate (49.1 percent of dropbacks). When Jimmy Graham was lost in Week 12, he was Russell Wilson’s most-targeted receiver against blitzes. Since then it’s been Baldwin, and he’s hauled in 11 of 15 blitzed targets for 243 yards and six touchdowns. The matchup has one of the highest projected totals of the week (48 points), the Cardinals’ run defense (3.9 yards per carry) forces opponents into a passing stance, and Baldwin will run routes most often against weak-link Jerraud Powers (-6.0 coverage grade; 92nd of 118).
WR Martavis Bryant – Pittsburgh Steelers, $7,100 (-$100)
Editor’s Note: Bryant (illness) is currently listed as questionable for Week 17 despite practicing.
Bryant took a flamethrower to fantasy rosters last week, catching a single pass for six yards on three targets. Even before that brutality in Baltimore, Bryant had been leaving his investors wanting more. It’s going on a month since he last found the endzone in Week 13. Although he had averaged 11.5 targets in Weeks 14 and 15, he produced 11.1 FanDuel points per game – hardly a difference-making output in tournaments. He remains a volatile commodity, best-used in GPPs despite an average of 10.8 targets from Week 11 through Week 15, which convinced some – myself included – that he was cash-game-viable.
Bryant faces a Browns defense that is worse against the run (-52.7; 32nd) than covering the pass (-6.4; 13th). His teammate, DeAngelo Williams, has been lighting it up for weeks – including a 153-total-yard, two-touchdown explosion against Baltimore. We know where the Pittsburgh traffic will be against Cleveland. Sticking with Bryant leaves us positioned to take advantage of the GPP-worthy volatility that was temporarily obscured by the consistent targets he saw prior to Week 16. That same volatility showed up when he scored six times in five games, and tacked on 178-yard, 137-yard, and 114-yard bonuses during three of them.
WR Jordan Matthews – Philadelphia Eagles, $6,600 (+$200)
Matthews is a relatively affordable way to gain exposure to a game with the second-highest projected total of the week (51 points), as the 24th-most-expensive wideout is in a great spot to be rostered alone or with multiple teammates. Sam Bradford is priced 20th among quarterbacks and should be lightly-owned. He’s averaging 370.5 passing yards on 48.5 attempts during the last two weeks. Zach Ertz is still moderately-priced ($5,700; 10th), but will be popular after several impressive performances. Stacking him with Bradford and/or Matthews would create a unique lineup.
Yet Matthews can still be deployed alone in this juicy matchup. He is averaging 9.5 targets, seven catches, 131.5 yards, and a touchdown in each of his last two games. He’s scored four times in the last five games, and will run the vast majority of his routes against Trevin Wade. The 6’3” Matthews will be funneled targets against the 5’10” Wade, on whom he has 22 extra pounds, due to New York’s strong perimeter cornerbacks. We want to target a Giants defense that allows the third-most points to quarterbacks, fifth-most to receivers, and second-most to tight ends. Matthews is the Eagles’ best combination of price, ownership, and likelihood of reaching usable production.
TE Gary Barnidge – Cleveland Browns, $6,300 (-$400)
Johnny Manziel’s reported concussion will keep him out of the finale against Pittsburgh, which probably drives fantasy traffic away from Barnidge. Not too long ago, Manziel quarterbacking the Browns was viewed as a negative for Barnidge’s production, but Austin Davis isn’t thought of as highly as Josh McCown. And if that sentence doesn’t get you fired up for Browns football, nothing will. Yet, Davis’ lone start this season, against the Bengals defense, produced a passing game grade (+2.1) higher than Manziel has managed in 14 career appearances.
Davis targeted Barnidge eight times against Cincinnati. He hauled in five, which ties for his most catches since McCown went down, and a modest 58 yards. The Bengals, who allow the seventh-fewest points to tight ends, are a tougher matchup than the Steelers – who give up the eighth-most. When they have been tested by offenses with strong tight ends, most recently against the Bengals, Seahawks, and Barnidge’s Browns – he caught six of eight targets for 65 yards and score – the Steelers proved vulnerable. In a matchup where Cleveland will have to pass to keep up and Travis Benjamin (ankle) may be gimpy, Barnidge will be busy.
TE Ben Watson – New Orleans Saints, $5,300 (-$300)
Watson may be the best bet among the Saints’ pass-catchers to do damage in a game that sports the highest projected total of the week (53). Coming off of a disastrous performance in which he was hampered by a knee injury and was only targeted twice, gaining five yards, Watson won’t be as popular has he has been lately. Again fully healthy, if he also returns to the 10 targets per game he had averaged for a month leading up to Week 16, he has a shot to be a difference-maker in a week where Jordan Reed’s lack of usability and Zach Ertz’s surge in popularity have thinned the position.
The Falcons allow the 11th-most points to tight ends, and before last week, had struggled when tested by the upper echelon of the position. That includes a 12-target, 10-catch, 127-yard pasting by Watson himself, in which he also scored. With Atlanta finally opting to use shut-down cornerback Desmond Trufant as a shadow, the red-hot Brandin Cooks will see some of his targets – 8.7 per game since the last time he faced the Falcons – distributed to other Saints. Watson should benefit, and as he’s done several times this season, provide investors with a low-cost, low-ownership option at a mostly-barren position.