NFL Chalk Talk: Week 13
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Cam Newton $7400 at NO: 32 percent
It’s going to be hard to find anyone who doesn’t have Cam as the No. 1 quarterback in their rankings this week. He has the best possible matchup for a quarterback and everyone realizes how good the undefeated Panthers are now. Just realize that the quarterback pricing on DraftKings is depressed, meaning we really need about 4x value from the position. Cam has only gone over 30 DK points in 3-of-11 games this season. He’s still more valuable for his sky-high floor than ceiling to me.
2. Ben Roethlisberger $6600 vs. IND: 18 percent
The Steelers were on the road at Seattle last week, a spot everyone knows is awful for pass games. Roethlisberger was still the tenth-most popular QB site-wide and he smashed with 456 passing yards. So we know people are going to be on him for a home spot against the Colts this week. He’s gone over 300 yards in five of his six full games this year. Big Ben is a strong pivot off Cam.
3. Tom Brady $8000 vs. PHL: 16 percent
Under normal circumstances, Brady would be over 30 percent owned for a home game against the Eagles. But I suspect the field is a bit wary of paying for a guy without his three favorite pass-game weapons in Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Dion Lewis. The field has also become more aware of how DraftKings is pricing quarterbacks – last week six of the ten highest-owned QBs were below $6000. I should also note that Russell Wilson ($5600 at MIN) will likely be in the 10-12 percent range as people chase last week’s blowup into a far more difficult spot.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Matt Ryan 2 percent, Eli Manning 4 percent, Andy Dalton 5 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. David Johnson $3400 at STL: 48 percent
Chris Johnson (leg) and Andre Ellington (toe) were both ruled out early in the week. That means everyone has had plenty of time to funnel David Johnson into all their lineups at the near-minimum price of $3400. The Cardinals have lied about usage before, but they’ve been adamant that DJ will fill CJ’s 17.8 carry-per-game role, with Stepfan Taylor and Kerwynn Williams as backups. This a spot where I’ll consider locking Johnson into cash lineups and fading his massive ownership in tournaments.
2. Jonathan Stewart $5300 at NO: 24 percent
A common theme among the chalk this week is going to be Panthers. Stewart has at least 20 carries in a whopping seven straight games and the Saints have given up 100+ rushing yards seven times already this year. That said, Stewart has eight catches in his last 10 games and four rushing touchdowns all year. I don’t think he’s underpriced, even in this matchup.
3. Doug Martin $5900 vs. ATL: 20 percent
The field is really getting on Martin lately. He was 25.2 percent owned site-wide last week at $5800 against the Colts. There’s little reason to think people won’t be back on him this week against a Falcons team that is crumbling to the tune of four straight losses. There’s merit for a price pivot here, as guys like Buck Allen ($5400), DeAngelo Williams ($5600), LeSean McCoy ($5700) and Lamar Miller ($5800) are all in the same range.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: DeAngelo Williams 8 percent, LeSean McCoy 8 percent, Todd Gurley 6 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
1. Antonio Brown $8600 vs. IND: 30 percent
Brown was 12.9 percent last week even though everyone knew he’d see a ton of Richard Sherman. That speaks volumes about how good the field knows this guy is. So for a home game against a scuffling Vontae Davis and the Colts, Brown is going to have a lot of deserved traffic. The only reason I don’t think he’ll be higher owned is because there are a ton of quality wide receiver options on this massive 15-game main slate. Note that Odell Beckham will likely be in the 30-35 percent range if Darrelle Revis (concussion) can’t play.
2. Danny Amendola $4700 vs. PHL: 28 percent
This assumes Amendola’s knee is fully ready to go for Sunday against the Eagles. If so, he’s going to play almost every snap as a go-to guy for Tom Brady against a broken pass defense. Given the full-PPR format on DraftKings, it’s going to be hard for Amendola not to meet value – he saw 12 targets in just over three quarters of work last time out.
3. Alshon Jeffery $6900 vs. SF: 25 percent
Jeffery is finally off the injury report this week, suggesting the groin and shoulder issues that have plagued him all year are gone. It’s perfect timing, as he’s had ten days to rest and now gets to face a 49ers defense that gives up more yards per play than anyone in the league when on the road. Note that Julio Jones (at TB) and DeAndre Hopkins (at BUF) are both in fine spots and will have traffic on them, but nowhere near the amount that they should due to last week’s epic duds.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Demaryius Thomas 5 percent, Donte Moncrief 4 percent, DeSean Jackson 3 percent
TIGHT END
1. Scott Chandler $2500 vs. PHL: 29 percent
No one is going to be excited about rostering Scott Chandler. But he’s $2500 and projects to play 100 percent of the snaps with Tom Brady. His pass-catching role was already on the rise even before the Rob Gronkowski injury. The only thing that will keep Chandler’s ownership down is excellent matchups for both Greg Olsen and Travis Kelce. If you use Chandler, the key won’t necessarily be how he performs – it’ll be what you do with all that extra money.
2. Greg Olsen $6400 at NO: 25 percent
On any other week, Olsen would be closer to 35 percent if facing the Saints. It’s arguably the best possible matchup for a tight end, even ahead of the ineptitude displayed by the Giants and Raiders against tight ends. That said, one of the most popular stacks of the week (along with Cutler/Alshon) will be Cam/Olsen. I’d be more apt to run a naked Olsen or naked Cam team out there if I was going to use Panthers in tournaments.
3. Travis Kelce $4700 at OAK: 20 percent
The Raiders allow the second-most fantasy points to tight ends, just behind the Saints and ahead of the Giants. Kelce has also been a little more involved than usual lately, getting at least seven targets in four straight games. The problem is he’s rarely featured in the red zone and has zero games above ten targets all year. With everyone on one of the three tight ends mentioned here, I think it’s an interesting week to get on forgotten man Jordan Reed ($5300) against Dallas or Gary Barnidge against Cincy. They are better bets than Kelce for volume and touchdowns.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Jordan Reed 9 percent, Gary Barnidge 5 percent, Jacob Tamme 5 percent