NFL Chalk Talk: Week 7
The next wave of DFS analysis is ownership projection for GPPs. We could argue that knowing exactly what our opponents are going to do is just as important as our actual box-score projections from a game theory perspective.
Of course, projecting ownership is no easy task. I am not smart enough to do it with a model or algorithm. I do it with logic, feel and by closely monitoring who “everyone” is talking about.
So each week, I’ll give the three players at each position I think will be the highest owned in the DraftKings $20 buy-in Millionaire Maker. Please understand these are NOT my top-ranked players at each position – it’s simply who I think will have the highest ownership percentage.
Editor’s Note: This refers to the main Sunday/Monday slate only.
QUARTERBACK
1. Philip Rivers $6500: 26 percent
It’s very obvious who the top-two plays at quarterback are this week. The interesting thing is that Rivers and Carson Palmer are similarly priced, which means we should see a split in ownership. It’s not like we have an ideal GPP situation where one guy is drastically higher owned at the same price point as a guy with a similar projection. Given Rivers’ dream matchup with the Raiders, the growing health of this weaponry and the struggles of the Chargers’ run game, I’m finding it hard to fade him at a 22-26 percent projection. Rivers is on pace to set the NFL record for pass yards in a season.
2. Carson Palmer $6700: 22 percent
I think Palmer will be slightly less owned than Rivers because people are scared of the blowout. The Cardinals are a 10-point favorite while the Chargers are only -3.5. But it’s going to be close as everyone knows the Ravens are the worst team in the NFL against the pass and a lot of people want the Monday night hammer. The bottom line is I wouldn’t let projected ownership sway your decision between these two one way or the other. I think the game sets up a little better for Rivers and he’s $200 cheaper, so I’m leaning that way.
3. Drew Brees $7000: 11 percent
Brees’ touchdown rate is way down (seven in five games) but he has gone over 300 yards in four of his five outings. He’s still $7000, a full $1000 less than what he opened the season at. Now Brees is playing way up in pace in a game with the highest over/under of the week by a wide margin. I also think Andrew Luck will be in this 10-13 percent range, making them both interesting pivots off the chalk Rivers/Palmer.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED QBs: Cam Newton 8 percent, Matt Ryan 6 percent, Tom Brady 8 percent
RUNNING BACK
1. Todd Gurley $5000: 39 percent
Gurley is averaging 24.5 carries across his last two games, is at home as a 6-point favorite and is coming off a bye. The Browns rank 31st in YPC allowed (5.0), 32nd in rush yards per game allowed (149.8) and 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs (21.3 per game). Gurley is grossly underpriced on DraftKings and it’s not a secret, meaning we’re going to see massive ownership on him. I’d never think about fading him in cash, but there’s always merit to thinking creatively when we have an ownership projection in the high 30s. Especially when that player is not part of the pass game.
2. Devonta Freeman $7900: 33 percent
Freeman is finally priced appropriately, but that won’t stop everyone from getting on him. The dude has scored at least 35 DraftKings points in four straight games and now faces a Titans defense that just got bit by Lamar Miller. It’s a really hard fade because Freeman plays at the goal-line, is game-flow independent and excels in the pass game. It’s also easy to fit his salary while also getting a lot of the other Week 7 chalk in.
3. Lamar Miller $4600: 21 percent
Last week was the one to be on Miller as he was still flying under the radar following the coaching change. I hate myself for not getting on board. Now he’s going to be very popular as his price only went up $300 to $4600 – a rare price for a clear-cut lead back. With the Dolphins at home as a four-point favorite, it’s hard to see run-game proponent Dan Campbell not riding Miller for at least 15 more carries. The chalk lineup includes Miller, Gurley and Freeman maxing out the positional eligibility. If you want to be contrarian, think about ways to pivot off that.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED RBs: Le’Veon Bell 9 percent, Adrian Peterson 9 percent, Dion Lewis 8 percent
WIDE RECEIVER
1. DeAndre Hopkins $8600: 30 percent
Much like Devonta Freeman, Hopkins is finally priced about where he should be. And just like Freeman, that won’t stop people from piling traffic onto Nuk. A matchup with Brent Grimes is not a concern thanks to outrageous volume that has Hopkins on pace for 240 targets, an absurd 56 more than Demaryius Thomas led the league with last year. But now that Hopkins’ price is elevated, we can start thinking about leverage plays for GPPs. I’d argue that “(player-popup)Julio Jones”:/players/julio-jones-12896’ projection is at least as high as Hopkins’ this week, yet Julio will have a fraction of the ownership. We also have guys like Calvin Johnson, Antonio Brown at significantly cheaper rates with similar ceilings.
2. Larry Fitzgerald $7400: 23 percent
Everyone knows the Cardinals’ pass game is a great bet to succeed against the Ravens on Monday night. Everyone also like John Brown and Michael Floyd a bit, but the one that feels safe and cuddly is Fitzgerald. He’s the one with at least seven targets in all six games and the one with the absurd 79.6 percent catch rate. A Carson Palmer stack is going to be right there with Rivers/Gates for the most popular stacks of the week. A way to leverage this yet still get access to the Cardinals pass game is to go Carson/Brown, Carson/Floyd or even Carson/Floyd/Brown.
3. Martavis Bryant $4700: 21 percent
It’s hard not to be drawn into Bryant’s ceiling this week. He played on 62.1 percent of the snaps in his 2015 debut, clicking with Landry Jones to the tune of 6-137-2. He’s a uniquely talented player that’s up against one of the league’s worst pass defenses at $4700. There are reasons to fade here though, as Landry has looked completely inept as an NFL quarterback in every chance he’s gotten except last week. Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell also remain higher priorities for the offense. But in terms of upside relative to price, we’re not going to do better than Bryant. And if Big Ben suits up, he’d border on a must-play.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED WRs: Antonio Brown 9 percent, Jordan Matthews 1 percent, Michael Crabtree 6 percent
TIGHT END
1. Antonio Gates $5000: 41 percent
There’s a lot of chalk to eat this week, but Gates takes the cake. He’s back up around his 70 percent snap rate, looking fitter/quicker than ever and has the dream matchup for a tight end against Oakland. He’s also just $5000 – a mere $800 more than he opened at. On top of all this, there aren’t very many other tight ends people are going to want to play (see below). Gates is a great play, but just be aware of the massive ownership that’s coming. He was at 29.49 percent across the site last week and didn’t disappoint with 18.5 DK points.
2. Rob Gronkowski $8100: 13 percent
Gronk was up at 22.3 percent site-wide last week and failed (again) with 14.0 DK points. Yet his price doesn’t drop – in fact, it keeps going up. Gronk opened the season at $7000, was $7600 last week and is now a whopping $8100. He’s going to have a TD eruption game similar to Week 1 at some point, but his floor does not correlate to that price tag. Especially when the tight end position has such shallow pricing – pass-catchers like Zach Ertz and Delanie Walker are more than $4000 cheaper.
3. Travis Kelce $4900: 10 percent
No one ever feels great about rostering Kelce because he only averages 6.5 targets per game. But this week has a little extra oomph because Jeremy Maclin (concussion) is questionable and the running game is a mess without Jamaal Charles. In theory, it should mean extra targets for Kelce against a Steelers defense that is leaky. Both Gronk and Kelce are high-upside plays for those looking to move off Gates. If they go off and Gates flops for whatever reason, 40 percent of the field will be eliminated from GPP contention.
PROJECTED UNDEROWNED TEs: Jordan Reed 4 percent, Gary Barnidge 8 percent, Greg Olsen 9 percent