NFL Grind Down: Turkey Day Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code.
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Wednesday morning (for Thanksgiving games) and Saturday morning (for Sunday games) after we have final injury reports
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Editor’s Note: Stefon Diggs has been ruled OUT for Week 12.
| Minnesota Vikings | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 42 | 22.25 | +2.5 | 42 | 19.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.4 | 26 | 21 | 32 | Offense | 22.8 | 17 | 18 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.9 | 14 | 18 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 16.9 | 1 | 6 | 10 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 31 | 9 | 17 | 30 | Minnesota Vikings | 4 | 5 | 2 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 81 | 61 | 2 | 710 | Tate | 74 | 49 | 2 | 513 | |
| Thielen | 45 | 32 | 2 | 453 | Jones | 64 | 37 | 4 | 661 | |
| Patterson | 36 | 30 | 2 | 256 | Boldin | 48 | 35 | 5 | 286 | |
| Rudolph | 65 | 37 | 5 | 392 | Ebron | 43 | 32 | 1 | 381 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Stefon Diggs (MIN WR) – Questionable (Knee) / Theo Riddick (DET RB) – Questionable but expected to play (Ankle)
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.5
DET Matchup Rating: 5.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Sam Bradford is often asked to manage games, as the Vikings allow their defense to control field position and make plays. It worked to perfection last week, as the Vikings beat the Cardinals despite Bradford throwing for just 169 yards and one score. The defense returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown, and they also got a kickoff return score to start the second half. This matchup is fine, but it’s hard to envision Bradford having the kind of game that will make you regret not taking him. Shoot for greater upside with your quarterback selection, even on a three game slate.
Running Backs: Minnesota continues to lack any semblance of a strong running game, and they rank dead last in the league in rushing, averaging just 70 yards per game. They also continue to employ a committee approach that tends to ride the hot hand of Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata. In recent games, McKinnon has logged a few more snaps and touches, but Asiata continues to be used as the goal line back. Even in a decent matchup, this is a spot that is better left avoided outside of a possible true punt on McKinnon or Asiata in a Thursday-only GPP.
Editor’s Note: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Stefon Diggs is unlikely to play in Week 12.
Pass Catchers: Even though I am not high on his quarterback, I love this spot for Stefon Diggs. The offensive coordinator change in Minnesota has become a real boost to his fantasy value. He gets targeted relentlessly with short passes, which build up fantasy points in a hurry. He also has upside with the ability to break a big play. He was shadowed by Patrick Peterson a week ago, and that held his production in check somewhat, along with the fact that Minnesota scored twice on defense and special teams. Things should be much better against the Lions this week, and Diggs just caught 13 passes when these teams met a few weeks ago. Adam Thielen has become a regular at the #2 wide receiver spot and caught the only touchdown pass for the team last week, and he is also in play as a value option. Kyle Rudolph has played a very limited role and cannot be trusted at this point.
The Takeaway: The best spots to target here are with the pass catchers. This is a great spot for Stefon Diggs, while Adam Thielen can also be viewed as a value target. There isn’t enough upside to get excited about the quarterback or running back spots. This game has a projected total that is significantly lower than the other two games on Thanksgiving, so there’s no reason to go nuts with exposure to this one.
UPDATE – Downgrade Diggs a bit, as he has missed practice this week and currently has a questionable tag. He is still an elite GPP play, especially if this drives his ownership down, assuming he is cleared to play Thursday afternoon. However, it now looks like he is trending toward the doubtful side of that tag. Adam Thielen suddenly is looking like one of the most popular values on the slate.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: Please stop the MVP talk with Matthew Stafford. Please. Again, the guy hasn’t thrown for more than 300 yards in a game since Week 3. He has four touchdown passes in the last four games, including none last week against the Jaguars.. The Lions have trailed in the fourth quarter in every game this season, yet they set at 6-4. That’s where the buzz is coming from, but it’s not all thanks to Stafford. You can safely avoid him here against a good Minnesota defense. He is massively over-priced on FanDuel given his recent production. The price tag is more viable on DraftKings, but I still won’t play him given the matchup and his recent production.
Running Backs: The Lions won last week despite gaining just 14 yards on the ground… as a team. They don’t have a reliable runner, and Minnesota ranks a respectable 10th in DVOA against the run. Still, this could be a sneaky spot for Theo Riddick. The Vikings have been susceptible to pass catching running backs, and the Lions would be smart to allow Riddick to operate in that capacity often in this one. I don’t expect them to have success with straight ahead pounding of Dwayne Washington. If you are looking to differentiate your lineups with the masses on running backs in the coming games, Riddick is definitely a risk/reward GPP option who will go much lower owned than the likes of Le’Veon Bell and Ezekiel Elliott.
Pass Catchers: You win all the money if you can figure out the Detroit receiving corps. Marvin Jones has fallen off after a red hot start to the season. Golden Tate then became the guy to roster every week, and he had a 20-25% ownership rate in some contests a week ago. That is far too high for a player of his caliber. Nobody wanted to roster him a month ago. The results will normalize over time in this Detroit passing game, and I can’t trust any of their wideouts against a good Minnesota pass defense. The best option might just be Eric Ebron. When healthy, he has major upside as a primary receiving threat in this offense. He caught seven passes in back-to-back games prior to last week, and he even got a rushing touchdown in Week 11.
The Takeaway: Again, this game has the lowest projected total of the three games on Thursday. There is no need to go crazy. Matthew Stafford is being over-valued right now, and Detroit lacks a major running game threat. I don’t mind taking a shot on Theo Riddick, whose pass catching skills should help against a good defense. Eric Ebron is also in play as a mid-range option at tight end, and he is the most logical pivot if you aren’t playing Jordan Reed. Minnesota’s defense is also in play given their ability to force turnovers and potentially log defensive scores.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys
| Washington Redskins | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +7 | 51.5 | 22.25 | -7 | 51.5 | 29.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.6 | 16 | 3 | 12 | Offense | 28.7 | 4 | 19 | 1 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.9 | 8 | 21 | 3 | Opp. Defense | 23.2 | 17 | 15 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 16 | 6 | 20 | 24 | Washington Redskins | 10 | 25 | 11 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 56 | 30 | 1 | 416 | Bryant | 50 | 22 | 3 | 398 | |
| Garcon | 65 | 42 | 1 | 477 | Williams | 35 | 25 | 1 | 360 | |
| Crowder | 63 | 44 | 5 | 535 | Beasley | 61 | 48 | 4 | 532 | |
| Reed | 63 | 44 | 3 | 456 | Witten | 63 | 44 | 2 | 483 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeSean Jackson (WAS WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Shoulder) / Dez Bryant (DAL WR) – Questionable but expected to play (Back)
WAS Matchup Rating: 7.0
DAL Matchup Rating: 8.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Kirk Cousins continues to quietly put up solid stats at the helm of this Washington team, and he is coming off a very good Sunday night performance against the Packers on Sunday night. The short week worries me, but this isn’t a terrible matchup, especially if you think the Redskins will be in catch up mode by the second half. He comes slightly cheaper than the quarterback on the other side of this game, and Dallas is much more vulnerable to the pass than the run. They rank 25th in DVOA against the pass compared to sixth against the run. Yes, I like that, Kirk.
Running Backs: The Redskins are committed to using Rob Kelley as their lead back, and he wore down the Packers defense on Sunday night with a huge fourth quarter. Take advantage of the fact that the big game isn’t priced into his salary on FanDuel or DraftKings this week. He has earned a big role as the early down and goal line back, and he is about $600-$800 under priced on both sites. This isn’t a great matchup, but Kelley is one of the more reliable value plays on the slate. The one concern is that Chris Thompson will see more snaps if the Redskins have to come from behind in this game. In multi-entry GPPs, I won’t have 100% exposure to Kelley, but I will certainly have some. It’s not easy to find value on this three game slate.
Pass Catchers: Jamison Crowder continues to get criminally over-looked each and every week. He is playing like the top wide receiver on this team, and he has either logged 100+ yards or a touchdown in each of Washington’s last five games. Priced at just $6,300 on FanDuel and $5,800 on DraftKings, he can be played in any format on Thursday. It is a little strange that he logged 41 snaps on Sunday compared to 52 and 49 for Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, respectively, but Crowder stilll doesn’t have a massive price tag. Garcon is cash game viable after putting up a 6/116/1 performance against Green Bay, while Jackson still has intriguing big play ability for GPPs. That’s the type of play that can set your team apart on a three game slate, as many folks will avoid him since he just returned from injury and has had a quiet season. Jordan Reed hasn’t put up the greatest results in recent weeks, as a lot of the passing offense has been funneled to other players. but Reed is clearly the most talented tight end on this slate. Washington’s ability to spread the ball around is a concern, but Reed should still get around eight targets in this game. If you have the salary to spend up at the tight end position, playing Reed makes sense because he has significantly more upside than any of the other options.
The Takeaway: Washington has plenty of options you can look to here, as this game has a total over 50 points, and none of Washington’s players are overly expensive. In fact, there isn’t a skill player I would necessarily avoid here. I wouldn’t use DeSean Jackson in cash games, but you can make a case for Cousins, Kelley, Crowder, Garcon, and Reed in any format. I wouldn’t go super heavy with the Redskins sitting as eight point underdogs in this spot, but you can play two or so on any roster.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: It’s almost laughable to see how much air time the clip is getting where Prescott tossed an empty Gatorade cup that missed the trash can. Folks, he walked over and picked up that cup and threw it in the garbage. WHAT A MAN. All jokes aside, Prescott is definitely in play here. He’s the cheapest viable quarterback I will use on this slate, and his price still seems very fair. Teams are starting to load the box in an effort to slow down Ezekiel Elliott, and it is creating lots of one-on-one coverage for Prescott to exploit. He is coming off a three touchdown effort against the Ravens and is definitely viable against Washington’s suspect defense that just allowed 360 passing yards to the Packers.
Running Backs: Even though I like Prescott, this is where the matchup shines, and Turkey Day represents a tremendous bounce back spot for Elliott. He was held mostly in check by an elite Baltimore rush defense, but now he draws a Washington rush defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the run. In addition, the schedule makers have given a giant middle finger to the Redskins, sticking them with a Thanksgiving afternoon game in Dallas after a Sunday night game against the Packers. That’s a brutally short week, and it won’t make stopping the NFL’s leading rusher any easier. He leads the league in rushing by more than 100 yards, and he will have a great chance to add to that on Thursday.
Pass Catchers: Dez Bryant is establishing a nice rapport with Dak Prescott, and he caught two touchdown passes last week against the Ravens. His size makes him a great red zone target, and Prescott is finally realizing that Dez is a matchup nightmare in the red zone. He will likely get shadowed by Josh Norman in this game, which does make Bryant a little more risky. Cole Beasley has the best matchup of the Dallas receivers in the slot, but his snap count has dwindled a bit in recent weeks. He still makes for an interesting punt play, as he is seeing a few more red zone targets this year. Jason Witten has seen his better years pass him by, and he won’t flash the kind of upside that he showed against the Browns in any other game this season. If you exclude the Cleveland game, he is averaging 4.5 catches and 43 yards per game this year. There’s no reason to target that, even on a short slate of games. Aim higher with your tight end spot.
The Takeaway: Dallas draws a favorable matchup against a Washington squad that is on an extremely short week. Ezekiel Elliott rivals Le’Veon Bell as the top running back on this slate, while Dak Prescott is a viable mid-range play at quarterback. Dez Bryant carries some risk with likely coverage from Josh Norman, but he has high upside given his ability to snag touchdowns. Cole Beasley is also in play as a cheap WR option.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7.5 | 48 | 27.75 | +7.5 | 48 | 20.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.8 | 15 | 4 | 25 | Offense | 26.6 | 7 | 7 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.4 | 29 | 31 | 22 | Opp. Defense | 22.9 | 14 | 25 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 29 | 23 | 16 | 27 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 12 | 31 | 5 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 104 | 69 | 7 | 831 | Hilton | 90 | 52 | 4 | 791 | |
| Heyward-Bey | 15 | 5 | 2 | 68 | Moncrief | 25 | 14 | 3 | 169 | |
| Coates | 42 | 20 | 2 | 425 | Dorsett | 35 | 20 | 1 | 314 | |
| Green | 4 | 3 | 0 | 30 | Allen | 29 | 19 | 2 | 207 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Andrew Luck (IND QB) – Out (Concussion)
PIT Matchup Rating: 8.5
IND Matchup Rating: 6.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: With Andrew Luck likely out of commission on the other side of this game, Ben Roethlisberger is your easy choice as the top quarterback on the Thursday slate. He could very well be the top rated quarterback of the entire week. Indianapolis ranks near the bottom of the league in both rush and pass defense, and the Steelers should move the ball with ease in this game. Roethlisberger has had two poor games and one great game since returning, but the poor games were due to rust and a good defense (against Baltimore) and weather (against Cleveland). In between those games, he was spectacular against Dallas. He’ll be fine against the Colts on Thursday night.
Running Backs: The kind of workload that Le’Veon Bell is getting is simply unmatched in today’s NFL. Over the last two weeks, he has played on 142 offensive snaps. Backup Fitzgerald Toussaint has played on two offensive snaps. Two. Bell’s fantasy floor is simply off the charts right now, especially because he draws ten targets in the passing game on a regular basis. He managed a 30 fantasy point day last week despite only finding the end zone once. Oh, and the opposing Colts rank dead last in DVOA against the run this year. Barring injury, it’s virtually impossible to see him being a bust in this game. Play the man. He gets the top spot by a nose over Ezekiel Elliott, but both are in extraordinary matchups.
Pass Catchers: A breakout game is coming for Antonio Brown, and this could very well be the one. Brown has been hampered by poor quarterback play (when Landry Jones was running the show) and weather (last week against Cleveland), and now everything should finally come together for him to have a big day. The Colts rank 30th in DVOA against the pass, and the presence of Vontae Davis doesn’t scare me at this point. Brown is nowhere near as expensive as he was at the start of the season, and this is a great chance to buy low on one of the league’s best wide receivers. If you are looking for value, Eli Rogers has played on around 75% of the snaps over the last two weeks and is one of the safer values on this three game slate. The tight end spot is too difficult to trust with both Ladarius Green and Jesse James in the mix.
The Takeaway: Pittsburgh is the top projected offense of the day, and this should be able to control the time of possession in this game, leading to plenty of offensive snaps. This is especially true if Andrew Luck is out for the Colts. Feel free to fire up any combination of Ben Roethlisberger, Le’Veon Bell, Antonio Brown, and Eli Rogers. This truly represents the late night hammer on a three game Thanksgiving slate.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Andrew Luck is currently in the league’s concussion protocol, and it seems unlikely that he will be cleared in time for Thursday’s game, at least according to current reports as I write this on Tuesday morning. I will update this article as the situation warrants, but this analysis will currently operate under the assumption that Scott Tolzien will start at quarterback for the Colts. Tolzien is a long-time backup that has become an elite clipboard holder by virtue of playing a backup role to Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck in his career. He has thrown a total of one regular season pass since 2013. Even in a favorable matchup against a beatable Pittsburgh secondary, it’s difficult to recommend Tolzien in any format.
Running Backs: I am admittedly harsh on Frank Gore in this space every single week, and he continues to outpace expectations. His uptick in passing game usage has been a pleasant surprise, and he will certainly be heavily involved in the game plan if Andrew Luck can’t go. His only shot at reaching any sort of upside is via the touchdown, as he isn’t going to bust off 60 yard runs at this stage of his career. Pittsburgh will also creep more guys in the box if Tolzien is under center. Gore is in play as a mid-range running back on this slate, but I worry about how effective he will be with a massive downgrade at quarterback.
Pass Catchers: The viability of this unit obviously hinges on the status of Luck. If Luck is out, it’s hard to justify spending on a guy like T.Y. Hilton or Donte Moncrief. Neither of them comes with a value price tag, and both caught touchdowns last week against Tennessee. I will likely avoid everyone in the Indianapolis passing game unless Luck happens to get cleared prior to roster lock on Thursday morning.
The Takeaway: Indianapolis’ entire offense gets a downgrade with Andrew Luck likely sitting this game out. If he is out, the most viable play on the Colts is Frank Gore, though the Steelers may stack the box and force Tolzien to throw. The entire passing game is nothing more than a low-owned GPP flier if Luck doesn’t play, though circumstances may change if Luck happens to get cleared well in advanced of kickoff. Stay tuned for a possible update.
UPDATE – Luck has been ruled out, so the analysis above holds.