NFL Grind Down: Week 3 - Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Dallas Cowboys | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 47 | 25 | 3 | 47 | 22 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.0 | 19 | 13 | 17 | Offense | 19.5 | 14 | 6 | 28 | |
| Opp. Defense | 35.0 | 28 | 24 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 3.0 | 2 | 13 | 1 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona Cardinals | 27 | 11 | 26 | 12 | Dallas Cowboys | 16 | 26 | 19 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Bryant | 25 | 9 | 1 | 102 | Fitzgerald | 19 | 9 | 0 | 95 | |
| Williams | 12 | 10 | 0 | 85 | Nelson | 13 | 10 | 2 | 163 | |
| Beasley | 13 | 7 | 0 | 65 | Brown | 11 | 4 | 0 | 73 | |
| Witten | 22 | 17 | 2 | 156 | Gresham | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Brice Butler (DAL WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / Terrance Williams (DAL WR) – Questionable (Ankle) / John Brown (ARI WR) – Out (Quad) / J.J. Nelson (ARI WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Jermaine Gresham (ARI TE) – Questionable (Ribs)
DAL Matchup Rating: 5.5
ARI Matchup Rating: 5.0
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: The Monday Night tilt features the dysfunctional (already!?) Cowboys traveling to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. It has been a rough start for the Dallas offense, as they didn’t look good at all last week. They also didn’t really look that great in the opener, though they won thanks to an abysmal performance from the Giants. Is the league finally figuring out Dak Prescott? Was his rookie season a simple flash in the pan? Despite all his accolades last year, Prescott wasn’t all that fantastic from a fantasy football perspective, and now he draws another tough road date against a good secondary. I will gladly pass in favor of other options this week. If you are playing the Sunday night/Monday night two game slate, I prefer the other three quarterbacks over Prescott.
Running Backs: Everybody in Dallas seems to despise Ezekiel Elliott right now, but the “call out” over his “lack of effort” on an interception last week has been overblown ten ways from Sunday. Things like this happen all the time, but the cameras just happened to catch this one. He wasn’t going to make a tackle on that play, anyway. Would you want to risk injury to your best player in that spot? What if Von Miller went and laid Zeke out as he was chasing that play? Everyone would be calling the effort unnecessary in that spot. Give me a break. I am by no means an Elliott supporter, but this has gone way too far. I expect him to make a statement with his play on the field this week. He is not the top running back option of the week, but he is the top running back option in the prime time games.
Pass Catchers: Dez Bryant is going through the early season ringer. He had to deal with under-rated elite corner Janoris Jenkins in Week 1, the dominant Denver secondary in Week 2, and now he has to face Patrick Peterson in Week 3. Yikes. I am not ready to hop aboard just yet, but Bryant is going to be nicely priced in future weeks, and I will absolutely be hopping aboard when the matchups are more favorable. His 15 targets were very encouraging last week, even though the production was not there. I am not interested in anyone from the Dallas receiving group this week, though Cole Beasley and Jason Witten are reasonable value plays on the shorter slates.
The Takeaway: I generally don’t target passing games against the Cardinals, and that is not going to change this week. it is worth noting that Dallas has started the season with a schedule of NYG/DEN/ARI, a very tough trio of pass defenses, especially considering that Janoris Jenkins was healthy for that first game. There will be value to be had in future weeks when the matchups get more favorable. Ezekiel Elliott should rebound from a poor performance a week ago, and I expect him to make a statement on the field here. I won’t play him a ton on full week slates, but he is an elite option on the afternoon/late or prime time only slates.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: Based on the roster that he has around him, Carson Palmer is going to have a fine fantasy season. The Cardinals are going to struggle in the run game, which is going to force them to the air much more than they are used to with David Johnson terrorizing opposing defenses. His four interceptions are a bit alarming, but he has thrown for 600 yards in two starts. That type of production should continue, and Palmer is a viable – though short of “great” – fantasy option this week. The health of the wide receivers is a concern, and I prefer other options slightly.
Running Backs: Andre Ellington led this group with 30 snaps last week, while Kerwynn Williams logged 18 and Chris Johnson snagged 17. That, my friends, is a three man backfield, with three running backs that are all below league average. Ellington only got that much run because the Cardinals were trailing for much of the game against the Colts, and Bruce Arians has said that Chris Johnson will get more work this week. This group gets a giant no thanks from me. If the Cardinals fall behind, Ellington is probably the best bet, while Johnson is the play if the Cardinals get a lead. To put it bluntly, Williams is terrible.
Pass Catchers: John Brown is trending toward another absence this week, but J.J. Nelson has also been limited in practice so far this week. This is going to be a tricky spot to peg, especially since this game doesn’t go off until Monday. Larry Fitzgerald is the obvious target, but DFS players are already souring on him after a pair of sub-par efforts. Slot receivers have the best potential against Dallas, so this is a nice spot to get Fitzgerald at lower ownership along with a reasonable price tag. Nelson’s big play upside is still there assuming he is healthy, but hamstrings are tricky for big play receivers, and I don’t love the spot against Dallas. Jaron Brown might be an intriguing punt play as the most healthy of the receivers, especially since he saw double figure targets last week.
The Takeaway: Avoid the mess of a running game. Carson Palmer is a reasonable mid-range QB target, while the receivers are also in play. I’ll go back to the well with Larry Fitzgerald, especially since his GPP ownership is sure to be lower this week. He matches up nicely with the Dallas defensive scheme. The other receivers are fringe options at best, though Jaron Brown gets a boost with both John Brown and J.J. Nelson banged up. Don’t sleep on him as a value pick this week.
Thursday Night Quick Hits
1) I am ignoring Dak Prescott and Mike Glennon from a QB perspective. I have no issues with targeting Aaron Rodgers or Carson Palmer. Rodgers is obviously the safest play, as he has put up three straight 300+ yard games to start the season. Much of that has come with the Packers trailing in second halves, which shouldn’t be the case this week, but Rodgers still has the highest floor and the highest ceiling of the group.
2) Assuming the Packers can get out to a lead this week, Ty Montgomery should finally see more carries. His role on the ground has been limited because of game flow, but he is still a very safe running back play.
3) Jordan Howard looked fantastic last Sunday, but he is still a liability in the passing game. Game script worries me in this game, as it will become the Tarik Cohen show if the Bears happen to fall behind. Both guys are strictly GPP options for me.
4) Jordy Nelson showed no ill-effects from his Week 2 injury and looked dominant at times on Sunday. He is the top wide receiving option on the two game slate.
5) Keep an eye on the injury status of Randall Cobb. If he sits out again, Geronimo Allison will once again be a very solid value play after he won the game for the Packers with his long gainer in overtime.
6) The Bears wide receivers are off limits for me. Mike Glennon threw for only 101 yards and attempted just 22 passes in Week 3. The wide receivers had a grand total of two targets. TWO! Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen, and Benny Cunningham caught all 12 of their targets out of the backfield. Glennon was 3-for-10 for 28 yards when throwing to anyone other than a running back (and they won the game).
7) Tight end is a very weak spot on the slate. Martellus Bennett has been a huge disappointment in Green Bay, and the backup tight ends scored touchdowns for both the Bears and the Packers in Week 3. I don’t really have a preference at the position, so you can fill that spot last and let salary be your guide.