NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Page Four
San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
| San Francisco 49ers | New York Giants | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 43 | 18 | -7 | 43 | 25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 12.0 | 32 | 32 | 5 | Offense | 25.5 | 9 | 22 | 24 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.5 | 11 | 32 | 1 | Opp. Defense | 27.5 | 28 | 23 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Giants | 20 | 25 | 11 | 31 | San Francisco 49ers | 22 | 26 | 26 | ||
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Boldin | 26 | 15 | 1 | 124 | Beckham Jr. | 41 | 24 | 2 | 307 | |
| Smith | 17 | 9 | 1 | 185 | Cruz | |||||
| Patton | 10 | 7 | 0 | 85 | Randle | 20 | 14 | 2 | 175 | |
| Davis | 15 | 8 | 0 | 109 | Donnell | 23 | 15 | 1 | 119 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Vernon Davis (SF, Knee, Questionable), Victor Cruz (NYG, Calf, Out)
SF Matchup Rating: 2.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 6.0
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback: Colin Kaepernick (FD $7,100, DK $5,200) has 22 completions and five interceptions over his last two games, both embarrassing losses for the 49ers. It’s quite clear at this point that the 49ers are not capable of putting together a competent offensive performance on a regular basis. He may get some garbage time yards and possibly a score, but there are much better cheap quarterback options available this week.
Running Game: The Giants rank first against the run according to Football Outsiders and numberFire, so why are they ninth in points allowed to the position? They’ve allowed backs to catch the ball out of the backfield, giving up eight catches for 70 yards to Lance Dunbar in Week 1, eight catches for 57 yards and a score to Chris Thompson in Week 3, and three catches for 30 yards and a score in Week 4 for Karlos Williams. The 49ers running backs haven’t been heavily targeted this year, including Reggie Bush (FD $5,300, DK $3,600), a back who used to contend for the league lead in receptions among players at his position. Carlos Hyde (FD $7,000, DK $4,900) isn’t worthy of consideration in such a tough matchup, and with unreliable passing game roles for all of the backs, this is another situation to completely avoid.
Pass Catchers: The Giants have good corners, and the Niners are a mess in the passing game. If Vernon Davis (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) is active, he gets a favorable matchup against a defense that has allowed the second-most points to tight ends this season, but he’s a tournament option only due to uncertainty about the passing game and his ability to finish a game. Otherwise, stay away from the Niners pass catchers.
The Takeaway: The 49ers don’t have that tough of a matchup this week, but they’re in such disarray on offense that they’re easy to avoid entirely.
New York Giants
Quarterback: The once-formidable 49er defense is now a shell of its former self, ranking 28th or worse against the pass and run, and projected to finish as the 30th ranked DVOA defense according to Football Outsiders. The only problem with starting a quarterback against this defense is, as we saw last week, they might not need to throw that often, or with any sort of aggression, to beat this San Francisco team. Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer both had multiple touchdowns on 300-yard passing days against San Francisco, and Eli Manning (FD $7,700, DK $6,800) has the potential to do the same. With how uncertain the running game is for the Giants, I would expect to see Manning air it out until the game is well out of hand, and he’s a viable tournament option that got only moderate levels of attention in Thursday-lock contests.
Running Game: Rashad Jennings (FD $6,200, DK $4,500) remains the “lead back” for the Giants, but that title is not one that inspires a lot of confidence. Carries and snaps will continue to be split three ways between Jennings, Shane Vereen (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) and Andre Williams (FD $5,400, DK $3,100). Vereen is unlikely to be needed all that often in what should be an easy win, as he primarily plays on passing downs. Williams has been generally ineffective this year, but continues to get snaps because the Giants apparently don’t have very high standards for running back play. Jennings would be a good option if I could be sure he’d get 15 or more touches against a defense that ranks 30th against the run, but as it stands, this is a backfield to pass over in DFS this week.
Pass Catchers: Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $9,000, DK $9,000) is an option against any defense, but especially against one that allowed Antonio Brown to go for 195 yards and a touchdown, and then a week later, Larry Fitzgerald to total 134 yards and two scores. Beckham has nearly twice as many targets as the next closest receiver on his team, tight end Larry Donnell (FD $5,200, DK $2,900), who has shown uncertain hands but still gets opportunities, especially in the red zone. He has a team-leading six targets inside the opponent’s 20 this season, and is an interesting tournament option. Dwayne Harris (FD $5,000, DK $3,400) emerged as a tertiary passing game option last week with five catches and a touchdown, and he is a cheaper way to get exposure to the Giants receivers. Rueben Randle (FD $5,900, DK $4,400) is never easy to read, but this is as good of a situation as any for the boom-or-bust wideout.
The Takeaway: Stack up the passing game for the Giants, who should have an easy time scoring against the terrible 49er defense. They’re in play in any format, and you can consider the defense against Kaepernick and the struggling San Francisco offense, as turnovers and sacks are coming, the only question is how many there will be, and if any will lead to touchdowns.
Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers
| Pittsburgh Steelers | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Qualcomm Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 24.0 | 13 | 12 | 13 | Offense | 24.0 | 13 | 1 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.5 | 28 | 10 | 29 | Opp. Defense | 18.8 | 8 | 14 | 18 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego Chargers | 9 | 31 | 1 | 23 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 | 6 | 21 | 29 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Archer | Allen | 46 | 33 | 3 | 387 | |||||
| Brown | 44 | 34 | 2 | 478 | Floyd | 15 | 8 | 1 | 167 | |
| Wheaton | 15 | 8 | 0 | 156 | Johnson | 25 | 18 | 2 | 205 | |
| Miller | 18 | 13 | 1 | 117 | Gates | |||||
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, Knee, Out), Stevie Johnson (SD, Hamstring, Questionable), Malcom Floyd (SD, Concussion, Questionable)
PIT Matchup Rating: 5.5
SD Matchup Rating: 6.0
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: Yes, Michael Vick (FD $6,500, DK $5,100) is very affordable and plays for a passing offense we have seen post video game numbers over the past two seasons. But his numbers against Baltimore suggest that the offense isn’t going to automatically elevate Vick to fantasy superstar status, and his lack of production as a runner (only 33 yards on nine carries) means he doesn’t stand out from other cheap quarterbacks in good matchups. The Steelers held Teddy Bridgewater to only 121 yards and no scores in Week 3, but have allowed multiple touchdown passes in every other week, so while they’re capable of shutting Vick down, there’s also a chance he posts a pair of scores and squeaks past his value threshold. I’ll be avoiding him this week, however.
Running Game: Le’Veon Bell (FD $9,000, DK $8,500) will carry the Pittsburgh offense with Big Ben sidelined, and last week’s 29-touch, 150-yard, one-touchdown performance is closer to a floor than a ceiling for Bell in a favorable matchup. The Chargers have allowed the second-most points to opposing backs so far this season, and rank 25th in DVOA against the run. Giovani Bernard and Adrian Peterson both went over 120 yards rushing against the Chargers, and Duke Johnson and Theo Riddick both found the end zone as receivers in their matchups with San Diego. I expect Bell to score one of each type of touchdown in a huge performance, and that means he’s obviously in play in all formats.
Pass Catchers: Over 60% of Vick’s Week 4 passes went to either Bell or Antonio Brown (FD $8,600, DK $8,700), and that trend will likely continue this week against the Chargers. Only one wideout, Travis Benjamin of all people, has surpassed 50 receiving yards against the Bolts this year, and Michael Vick isn’t the guy I expect to break trends and shatter expectations. And with Martavis Bryant (FD $6,100, DK $3,800) returning from suspension, the situation at receiver for the Steelers is crowded and watered down. There are too many potent passing games in this league to pay for receivers at Ben Roethlisberger prices while Michael Vick is under center.
The Takeaway: Le’Veon Bell might be the top overall play in daily fantasy football this week, but the passing game for the Steelers leaves a lot to be desired. Stick to the ground game on this side of the Monday night matchup.
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: Through two weeks, it appeared as if the Pittsburgh pass defense would be one to target in any matchup with any quarterback. Colin Kaepernick doesn’t throw for 300 yards and two scores against anything but the worst of defenses with the way he’s playing this season. But in Weeks 3 and 4, the Steeler defense stood up for itself and limited Nick Foles and Joe Flacco to mediocre performances. According to Pro Football Focus’ ratings, Ross Cockrell has been a pleasant surprise at corner for the Steelers, but all of their other corners are quite easy to pick on. And without a consistent pass rush, even the patchwork offensive line for San Diego should continue to keep Philip Rivers (FD $7,500, DK $6,200) upright. His price is appealing, and while he’s capable of a letdown game, he’s a top tournament option and is cash game viable in a contest that should see a decent amount of scoring.
Running Game: Whether you judge based on fantasy points allowed, Football Outsiders DVOA, numberFire NEP or virtually any other metric, it’s seemingly evident that the Steelers are not an easy matchup for opposing running backs. But last week’s 150-yard performance from Justin Forsett may have exposed the Pittsburgh run defense after a couple of weeks worth of easier matchups in the 49ers and Rams. The Steelers have still yet to allow a running back into the end zone, which distorts their statistics a bit, but the Chargers have also struggled to get running backs on the board this year. Melvin Gordon (FD $6,500, DK $4,900) and Danny Woodhead (FD $6,000, DK $4,600) are similarly priced, and while Gordon has the best chance of replicating what Forsett did last week as an early-down runner, Woodhead appears to be the go-to back in key situations. Through four weeks, Woodhead is still the only player with more than one rushing attempt in the red zone, and he also has two targets in the passing game inside the opponent’s 20. I will always favor the back who gets passing game and red zone work in daily fantasy, as the upside is much higher, but either of these backs are tournament options this week.
Pass Catchers: Even if there weren’t injury concerns at receiver for the Chargers, Keenan Allen (FD $7,700, DK $7,200) would be a top option in daily fantasy. But with Stevie Johnson and Malcom Floyd both hurting, Allen becomes an even more appealing option. His workload has varied quite a bit week to week, but he’s the preferred target for Rivers, and is moved all around the formation to get good looks and help move the ball down the field. He’ll face a defense that has allowed three receivers to go over 90 yards through four games, and should he receive the 17+ targets he’s seen twice in four games this season, he should easily pay off his price. Antonio Gates (FD $5,500, DK $4,200) returns from suspension this week, but don’t think “the masses” forgot about one of the best tight ends of all time. Even at his fair price, he was highly owned in Thursday lock contests. And while Rob Gronkowski was able to score three times against the Steelers, they have yet to allow a touchdown to a tight end since Week 1, and have given up only 131 yards to the position over the past three games and rank 13th in DVOA against the position this year. Gates is more popular than you’d like a tournament option to be, but he’s not worthy of a cash game spot thanks to better options in other matchups.
The Takeaway: Philip Rivers is a solid option at quarterback thanks to his fair price, and Keenan Allen is a smart option to pair with him. Otherwise, there are tournament options to be found on this offense, but not a lot else to get excited about. The fantasy production is concentrated to Allen and the backs for the most part, and the tight end situation is definitely “wait and see” with better options out there, and with a mediocre matchup.