NFL Grind Down: Week 5
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs
| Chicago Bears | Kansas City Chiefs | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Arrowhead Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 44.5 | 17.75 | -9 | 44.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 17.0 | 28 | 29 | 10 | Offense | 25.0 | 10 | 8 | 15 | |
| Opp. Defense | 31.3 | 31 | 30 | 14 | Opp. Defense | 31.3 | 31 | 2 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 13 | 32 | 8 | Chicago Bears | 23 | 14 | 25 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 11 | 5 | 0 | 78 | Maclin | 40 | 28 | 1 | 393 | |
| Royal | 26 | 18 | 1 | 120 | Wilson | 7 | 3 | 0 | 25 | |
| Wilson | 18 | 9 | 0 | 149 | Thomas | 9 | 6 | 0 | 43 | |
| Bennett | 31 | 24 | 2 | 201 | Kelce | 28 | 21 | 2 | 293 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Eddie Royal (CHI, Ankle, Questionable), Alshon Jeffery (CHI, Hamstring, Questionable), Albert Wilson (KC, Shoulder, Questionable)
CHI Matchup Rating: 4.0
KC Matchup Rating: 6.0
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Jay Cutler (FD $7,400, DK $5,300) isn’t going to win any MVP trophies any time soon, but he’s by far the best option the Bears have under center. So when Chicago has a good matchup, you can throw away the narratives and concerns about his future, and profit from a quarterback who has been productive in his career, even if that comes with a certain level of frustration. Cutler threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders, who have a better pass defense (surprisingly enough) than the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bengals punched in most of their scores last week via the ground, but could have scored through the air, as Andy Dalton was able to pick out passes for 321 yards. Sean Smith’s return didn’t seem to change things for Kansas City on defense, so it appears they might just be bad against the pass. Cutler is a decent tournament option, especially on DraftKings, where his price is very low.
Running Game: Matt Forte (FD $8,400, DK $7,000) is the exception to the rule. Running backs aren’t supposed to be workhorses anymore, and running backs are supposed to trail off as they get older. But the Tulane product who turns 30 this season is still one of the best and most consistent backs in the league, even for an offense that has its fair share of struggles. He didn’t quite live up to expectations against the strong defenses from Arizona and Seattle, but in anything resembling a good matchup, regardless of expected game script, Forte is a solid option. The Chiefs are a middle of the road defense against running backs, and gave up 102 yards and four scores on 22 carries to the Bengals two lead backs last week.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,600, DK $6,500) should be back from injury this week, and he’ll face a defense that has been terrible against receivers. DeAndre Hopkins, Emmanuel Sanders and Randall Cobb all had multiple touchdowns against them this season, and they’ve allowed two 80-yard receivers in every game this year. Eddie Royal (FD $5,500, DK $3,700) is dealing with an injury, and if he’s out, Marquess Wilson (FD $4,800, DK $3,400) steps further into the spotlight, and should see whatever targets are left over after Jeffery, Forte, and Martellus Bennett (FD $5,900, DK $5,000) get theirs. Bennett is a tough sell against a team that has been able to keep tight ends in check this season, but he’s a top target for his offense and will be given opportunities even in tough matchups. There are simply better options at the position this weekend.
The Takeaway: Cutler is a tournament pick, and stacking him with Jeffery or Wilson would make a lot of sense. Forte is in play in any format, as he’s one of only a handful of backs we can expect to get a healthy amount of touches this week.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: There is no strong element of the Chicago defense, and if Vegas is right, Kansas City should roll over the Bears in this one. That may lead you to shy away from Alex Smith (FD $6,900, DK $5,500), as the Chiefs do love to take the ball out of his hands and limit his upside, right? Since the start of last season, the Chiefs have won by seven or more points six times (they’re projected to win this week by nearly ten points). In those six games, Smith has 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. Two scores, 200 yards through the air and a couple on the ground would be a solid return on investment for Smith, who is a solid cash game play, and does hold just a bit of upside (three scores versus two, and maybe a few more rushing yards) that put him into the tournament discussion as well.
Running Game: But let’s be honest, if we’re attacking the Chicago defense, we’re doing it with Jamaal Charles (FD $9,100, DK $7,800). He’s only carried the ball 11 times in each of his last two games, and a limited workload is always the biggest concern for the Kansas City back. But the Bears have been awful against the run since the start of last season, and currently rank 27th against the ground game according to DVOA. Thomas Rawls picked up 106 yards on 16 carries against them, David Johnson had five carries for 42 yards and a score, and Eddie Lacy had a good day at the office in Week 1 against this Bears defense. The fantasy points allowed are deceiving, this Chicago team cannot stop the run, and Jamaal Charles is matchup proof anyways. He’s in play in any format.
Pass Catchers: It may have been more fun for Jeremy Maclin (FD $6,900, DK $6,000) to go to a team with a more explosive offense, but he’s exactly what Kansas City needed to add a spark to their stagnant receiving corps. Maclin has been heavily targeted through four games, and has responded with nearly 400 yards and a touchdown. He, Charles and Travis Kelce (FD $6,500, DK $5,200) are the only players on this offense with more than nine targets, so focus your attention on them, and pick your favorites in cash games and tournaments.
The Takeaway: Kansas City is going to race out to 28 points or more in this one, and the only question is figuring out who will be the ones scoring. The defense and special teams are an interesting play, as they possess solid returners and do have pass rushers who can pick up points by taking down Jay Cutler, who is also likely to throw an interception or two.
Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals
| Seattle Seahawks | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Paul Brown Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 43 | 20 | -3 | 43 | 23 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.8 | 18 | 21 | 7 | Offense | 30.3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.3 | 9 | 27 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 17.8 | 3 | 3 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 15 | 21 | 19 | 10 | Seattle Seahawks | 4 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Baldwin | 24 | 20 | 2 | 198 | Green | 35 | 25 | 3 | 417 | |
| Kearse | 20 | 16 | 0 | 236 | Jones | 18 | 10 | 2 | 174 | |
| Lockett | 12 | 10 | 0 | 110 | Sanu | 15 | 9 | 0 | 167 | |
| Graham | 23 | 18 | 2 | 174 | Eifert | 24 | 16 | 3 | 222 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Marshawn Lynch (SEA, Hamstring, Game-time decision), Fred Jackson (SEA, Ankle, Out)
SEA Matchup Rating: 3.0
CIN Matchup Rating: 4.0
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Russell Wilson (FD $8,200, DK $6,900) will take on a defense that allowed Cam Newton to rush for over 100 yards last season, and also allowed Jake Locker to pick up 50 yards as a runner. One of the keys for a big game from Wilson is his ability to get yards on the ground, as his passing statistics rarely get high enough on their own to elevate him into GPP-winning territory. So far this year, the Bengals haven’t faced a mobile quarterback outside of Alex Smith, who did pick up 25 yards on five attempts. Look for Wilson to pick up a decent amount of yards on the ground against the Bengals, who have a middle of the road defense against the pass (12th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, 19th according to numberFire), to generate a solid fantasy point total.
Running Game: The status of Marshawn Lynch (FD $8,600, DK $7,100) will determine how this position pans out on Sunday. If he’s in and close to 100%, he’s an option in all formats, because he’s a matchup-proof back who will see a healthy volume. But his injury sounds serious enough that I’m not going to trust anything but the most definitive of positive reports about his status, and would prefer Thomas Rawls (FD $6,000, DK $3,800) if Lynch is ruled out. Rawls is only playable in tournaments thanks to a very tough Bengal defense this year against the run, as Cincy as completely shut down the Oakland and Baltimore running games, and kept the Chargers and Chiefs in check, allowing no touchdowns on the ground, and only two through the air in garbage time against Oakland in Week 1 (to Marcel Reece, who is more of a fullback/tight end hybrid anyway). Without those 12 fantasy points, the Bengals DvP looks much stronger, and with the Seahawks expected to lose this low-scoring game, there are better places to invest at running back.
Pass Catchers: No one player saw more than five targets in the Seahawks last game against the Lions. They may have to throw more often than they’d like with Lynch hurt and facing a tough road game in which they are underdogs, but expect Wilson to share the wealth among his targets. Doug Baldwin (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) will always be his top option, and Jermaine Kearse (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) has red zone and big play upside. Steve Smith and Jeremy Maclin had huge games against the Bengals, and either one of Baldwin or Kearse could have a similar game if they get ten receptions. The problem is the small chance that a receiver gets that sort of volume in this offense. Jimmy Graham (FD $6,600, DK $6,100) just isn’t worth the price, as you can either pay up for the security of Gronkowski, or step down to some solid options in the lower tier of tight ends. And according to Football Outsiders, the Bengals have a top-10 defense against tight ends.
The Takeaway: Russell Wilson is an appealing tournament target, but finding any other player on this offense with a stable workload and a good matchup is a challenge.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: The Bengals are favorites at home against the Seahawks, but this game has one of the lowest totals of the weekend, and Andy Dalton (FD $7,300, DK $5,700) looks to be playing a bit over his head to start the season. He may not come crashing down to Earth, but he’s unlikely to keep up his pace of over 10.0 yards per attempt and nearly 8% touchdown rate against a defense loaded with elite talent. The Seahawks have stumbled out of the gates a bit, ranking 15th in DVOA against the pass, but they’ve allowed the sixth-fewest points to opposing passers this year, with a majority of the production coming from Aaron Rodgers.
Running Game: James Starks was able to find running lanes against the Seahawks, but no other back has found much success running against Seattle this year. The Lions were held to under 50 yards rushing from their backs last week, and we should expect a similar output from the Bengals this week. There are a couple of very good offensive linemen paving the way for the Cincinnati runners (PFF’s Ratings grade three of the five as above average or better), but there are just as many top talents in the front seven for Seattle, if not more. But, we’ve seen Theo Riddick and Benny Cunningham pick up a handful of catches and some yards out of the backfield against Seattle, so spending a roster spot on Giovani Bernard (FD $6,600, DK $4,800) might not be crazy.
Pass Catchers: If the Bengals get anywhere near their projected 23 points, it will be because A.J. Green (FD $8,200, DK $7,700) has done what he does best. Green gets moved all over the formation for the Bengals, and Richard Sherman has been sticking to his side of the field for most of this season, so the Bengal coaches can put together a game plan to get Green open against the less talented defenders for Seattle, or trust him to get open against the elite but beatable Sherman. He’s a tournament option with the start he’s had to this season. Football Outsiders reveals that it has been third and fourth receiving options and tight ends that have done the most DVOA damage against Seattle this year, which means Tyler Eifert (FD $5,600, DK $4,600) is a very strong tournament play as well. Seattle can be picked apart by tight ends, as we’ve seen over the past year or so, and Eifert has been as advertised after a strong offseason.
The Takeaway: The Seahawks are a very tough matchup, but the Bengals are home favorites, and those points have to come from somewhere. Look to Dalton and his top two pass catchers for the most likely sources of points.
Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons
| Washington Redskins | Atlanta Falcons | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Georgia Dome | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 48 | 20.5 | -7 | 48 | 27.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.5 | 22 | 17 | 1 | Offense | 34.3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.3 | 15 | 29 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 19.8 | 10 | 9 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Atlanta Falcons | 13 | 32 | 15 | 16 | Washington Redskins | 11 | 1 | 24 | 17 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Jones | 52 | 38 | 4 | 478 | |
| Garcon | 35 | 24 | 2 | 216 | White | 13 | 6 | 0 | 92 | |
| Grant | 20 | 11 | 0 | 114 | Hankerson | 29 | 17 | 2 | 241 | |
| Reed | 34 | 24 | 1 | 278 | Tamme | 10 | 8 | 0 | 104 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeSean Jackson (WAS, Hamstring, Doubtful), Jordan Reed (WAS, Concussion, Doubtful), Tevin Coleman (ATL, Ribs, Questionable)
WAS Matchup Rating: 5.0
ATL Matchup Rating: 7.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: It is entirely possible that Kirk Cousins (FD $6,400, DK $5,300) has turned a corner and is now a halfway decent NFL quarterback, but I’m not holding my breath. He has thrown for a touchdown in every game this season, but also has two games with two interceptions each. This week, on the road against the Falcons, he’ll face a team that has been fairly tough on quarterbacks to start the season, after gaining a reputation as a defense to target a year ago. The Falcons are outside of the top 20 in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, giving up only five touchdowns while picking off four passes over the first four games, with two of those touchdowns coming in garbage time from the hand of Brian Hoyer in a blowout last week. This is too tough of a matchup for me to want to roster Cousins and his limited upside, especially since there are countless other cheap passers in better spots this weekend.
Running Game: Thanks in large part to Joseph Randle and the Eagles’ trio of backs, the Falcons have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs so far this season. But after keeping the Houston backs in check a week ago, and having a decent day against the Dallas runners apart from a few chunk plays from Randle and McFadden, they are a tougher matchup than it might appear for the Washington backs. Oh, and we have literally no idea who is going to get the work in the Washington backfield. Chris Thompson (FD $5,100, DK $3,300) will likely see the most targets, and he’s in play in PPR formats thanks to his new role as the Roy Helu of the 2015 Washington offense, but between Alfred Morris (FD $6,300, DK $4,000) and Matt Jones (FD $6,000, DK $4,000), my choice is “pass.”
Pass Catchers: Pierre Garcon (FD $6,200, DK $5,300) is this team’s top healthy receiver, and it’s really not even close. Jordan Reed would be his only competition, but he’s dealing with a concussion, and doesn’t seem likely to play. And even if he does, Garcon is still the team’s leading target-getter, and their most talented player at the position with DeSean Jackson on the shelf. The Falcons are pretty tough on opposing receivers, mostly thanks to having a talented corner in Desmond Trufant, but Garcon should see around 10 targets and haul in a handful, and gets a bonus of being the top target man in the red zone if Reed is out. Jamison Crowder (FD $5,200, DK $3,500) has seen a bump in targets since his role increased with the offense, and he’s a viable play on PPR sites, and Derek Carrier (FD $4,500, DK $2,500) is a great tight end punt option if Reed is ruled out.
The Takeaway: Don’t expect much from this Washington offense, but their pass catchers offer some upside in tournaments, and Derek Carrier is a viable punt at tight end if Jordan Reed is ruled out.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (FD $8,300, DK $6,700) has improved his passer rating every week to start the season, but wasn’t asked to do much scoring in Week 4, and as a result had a disappointing performance despite his efficiency. In his previous three games, he either threw two touchdown passes or went over 300 yards, but has yet to do both in the same game, something he did four times last year. These are arbitrary end points, but used to prove that Ryan will eventually put it all together and have a GPP-winning weekend, and not just an 18-20 FanDuel point output like we’ve seen in three of his first four games. This week against Washington is as good of a chance as any, because while Jay Gruden’s team has limited fantasy points against at the QB position, they showed signs of weakness against the Eagles last week, and the underlying numbers (21st in DVOA, 21st in numberFire rankings against the pass) show that this unit might be due for a crash sooner than later. Fire up Ryan in any format.
Running Game: If you didn’t have Devonta Freeman (FD $7,600, DK $6,300) last week, you weren’t winning much money. Not only did he have another huge game, but he was one of the only backs to do so, and that set apart lineups with the Atlanta back. At this time last week, I wasn’t high on him, but as the week wore on I found myself gravitating toward him thanks to limited other options at the position. That may be the case again this week, as a matchup against Washington is less than desirable, and his price and ownership will both be quite high. But there are very few dependable runners, and since he’s likely to be owned in tons of cash games, you won’t lose much if he has a bad game. Just don’t think he’s going to set you apart in tournaments, and be aware that Washington has allowed the fewest points to backs so far this year, and rank seventh in DVOA against the run. Oh, and Tevin Coleman (FD $5,700, DK $4,200) might be back to steal a few carries and reduce Freeman’s upside.
Pass Catchers: Julio Jones (FD $9,200, DK $9,200) is elite, and last week’s letdown shouldn’t drive you away. It should, however, keep Leonard Hankerson (FD $6,000, DK $4,000) on your radar as the team’s new number two receiver, ahead of Roddy White (FD $5,200, DK $3,500). However, in this game, Hankerson will see plenty of Kyshoen Jarrett, who helped keep Jordan Matthews quiet a week ago (as profiled here). The rookie could be a fluke, and this could be a great matchup for Hankerson, but with no star corner on the outside to limit Jones, I’ll lean toward the superstar wideout if stacking with Ryan, or alone in cash games and tournaments.
The Takeaway: With Washington playing well against the run so far this season, following up on a fairly impressive 2014 season against the ground game according to metrics, I’ll stick with the Falcons passing game for daily fantasy purposes, but may be forced into Freeman for cash games with so few reliable options at running back.