NFL Grind Down: Week 5 - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-10-07 12:12:19

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San Francisco 49ers						Indianapolis Colts
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		1.5	44	21.25				-1.5	44	22.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense						Offense	17.8	25	29	25
Opp. Defense	30.0	29	28	9		Opp. Defense
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Indianapolis Colts	26	23	24	21		San Francisco Niners	0	0	0	0
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Garcon	33	20	0	285		Hilton	28	17	1	289
Goodwin	19	9	0	127		Moncrief	18	8	1	142
Taylor	19	11	1	93		Aiken	17	6	0	47
Kittle	14	10	0	83		Doyle	23	17	0	163

Notable injuries and suspensions: Marquise Goodwin (SF WR) – Questionable (Concussion) / Jack Doyle (IND TE) – Out (Concussion)

SF Matchup Rating: 5.0
IND Matchup Rating: 5.5

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback: Brian Hoyer is really struggling in San Francisco. He has completed just 58% of his passes this season and has thrown an interception in every game. When you combine those four interceptions with just two touchdowns, you have a rough start on your hands. The Colts are by no means a good football team, but Hoyer is a below average quarterback. There is a reason he has been nothing more than a a career backup, despite his flash in the pan success in Chicago a year ago. There are better option on this DFS slate.

Running Backs: The Colts hemorrhaged fantasy points to running backs last year, and though they got off to a better start this year, things are trending in the wrong direction. They have allowed six rushing touchdowns, second most to the Rams at this stage of the season. Carlos Hyde scored two rushing touchdowns against said Rams, and he certainly could be in line for a good game here. There is some concern about his health, but he played through a questionable tag a week ago and logged 21 total touches. Hyde is a perfectly solid mid-range option, as long as no additional injury concerns crop up as we get closer to Sunday afternoon.

Pass Catchers: Pierre Garcon has almost twice as many catches as any other wide receiver on this roster, and he is clearly the top target for Brian Hoyer in the passing game. He’s really the only viable receiver on the squad. The return of Vontae Davis and the emergence of rookie safety Malik Hooker make this secondary better than most people think, and I really don’t want a big part of the San Francisco passing game in this matchup. Garcon is a viable cash game play, but his ceiling is a bit limited.

The Takeaway: You could consider Carlos Hyde or Pierre Garcon as secondary options here, but the Colts secondary is not as porous as it would appear at first glance — especially with Vontae Davis back. I will have a few teams with Hyde, but otherwise I will be underweight on the 49ers skill players in Week 5.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback: Jacoby Brissett showed off his upside two weeks ago against the Browns before coming back down to earth in a very difficult road matchup with the Seahawks on Sunday night. I would expect his normal performance to fall somewhere in the middle of those two extremes. He has a decent matchup here against a 49ers squad that ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass, so there is some upside, especially since he is playing at home. With the extremes he has shown to start the year, Brissett remains a better target for tournaments than for cash games. He is in play on the value spectrum of quarterback options this week.

Running Backs: Despite his advancing age, Frank Gore continues to take a surprisingly large share of the offensive snaps in the Indianapolis backfield. His fantasy ceiling remains low, and he rarely hits value if he doesn’t find the end zone. As usual, I will pass on Gore in all formats. I cannot tell you the last time I have rostered him, and I cannot tell you the last time I didn’t win a tournament because I didn’t play Frank Gore.

Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton is generally quiet whenever Andrew Luck is not under center, and that has continued save for one massive game against the Browns. It’s difficult to endorse him as anything other than a GPP risk/reward play (especially if you are using Brissett). Donte Moncrief grabbed a touchdown last week but also has a rock bottom floor. Keep an eye on the status of Jack Doyle. He left last week’s game early with a concussion, but he is in play as a cheap tight end if he gets cleared. Should he sit out, bump up Hilton and Moncrief a little bit.

The Takeaway: This is another game where we don’t have to get super excited about fantasy production. I don’t mind Jacoby Brissett as a value quarterback play in a good matchup, and you could possibly grab a receiver as a risk/reward GPP play, but you don’t need to go there. As usual, Frank Gore is not a fantasy option for me.

Tennessee Titans						Miami Dolphins
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		**	**	**				**	**	**
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	25.0	9	28	6		Offense	8.3	32	27	30
Opp. Defense	18.5	6	27	4		Opp. Defense	0.0	0	0	0
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Miami Dolphins	18	18	18	19		Tennessee Titans	29	21	29	18
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Matthews	32	17	1	250		Parker	27	18	1	230
Decker	20	12	0	104		Landry	33	25	0	166
Taylor	7	5	0	72		Stills	18	9	1	101
Walker	26	18	0	219		Thomas	12	8	0	71

Notable injuries and suspensions: Corey Davis (TEN WR) – Out (Hamstring) / Marcus Mariota (TEN QB) – Questionable (Hamstring)

TEN Matchup Rating: 4.5
MIA Matchup Rating: 5.5

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback: As of now, it sounds like Marcus Mariota is not going to be ready in time for this game. That leaves Matt Cassel and Brandon Weeden as your quarterbacks in Tennessee. Good luck, Titans. Check back for an update on Mariota as we get closer to game day.

Running Backs: Assuming Mariota can’t play, you will likely see a game plan out of the Titans that could feature 40 rushing attempts. Expect them to feed, feed, and feed DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry the football. That would be the best chance for them to win a football game with Cassel under center, and it’s nice to have two running backs that are capable of carrying the ball 20 times. The problem is that the Dolphins rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and 2nd in DVOA against the run. They have allowed just 3.1 yards per carry so far this year. This is a poor matchup if the Titans don’t have Mariota, and it would be difficult to trust Murray or Henry in any case. The box will be stacked with defenders if Cassel is under center.

Pass Catchers: This is entirely dependent on who is under center, so I am not going to bother to break it down yet. The Dolphins do have weaknesses in the secondary, and Tennessee’s pass catchers are in play if Mariota plays. If he doesn’t, it’s difficult to trust any of them.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Mariota is “optimistic” that he will be able to play. I can’t trust him at less than 100%, but his return would downgrade the appeal of the Miami defense as a viable play. Bump up Rishard Matthews as a cash game play if Mariota is active.

The Takeaway: The Titans get a large “TBD” here because of the uncertain status of Marcus Mariota. The team takes a huge hit offensively with Matt Cassel under center, and I would likely fire up the Dolphins defense on some rosters if that circumstance comes to pass. Check back Saturday for the weekly updates.

Miami Dolphins

Quarterback: Miami’s signing of Jay Cutler looks more and more curious by the day. He has been nothing short of horrendous so far, especially in the last two games, where Miami has scored a total of six points — and those came on a last second touchdown pass against the Jets. Cutler might not be long for this job, and he is light years away from fantasy relevance at this point.

Running Backs: It sounds as if Jay Ajayi will finally avoid the injury report this week, and he was practicing in full as of Wednesday. The matchup is a solid one this week against a Titans defense that allowed over 50 points to Deshaun Watson and company last week. If the Dolphins want to win some games, they need to feed Ajayi the football and limit the pass attempts for Jay Cutler. In addition, Miami might be able to control the time of possession in this game if the Titans are forced to start Matt Cassel. This is a nice bounce-back spot for Ajayi, and I think he is in play for both cash games and tournaments.

Pass Catchers: Even though the Dolphins have had real problems moving the football, Jay Cutler continues to lock in on Devante Parker as his #1 wide receiver. Parker has seen 27 targets in three games and has a team high 230 yards and 12.8 yards per catch. His athleticism puts him at the top of the list, and he is a fine option in this game. Jarvis Landry carries some appeal in PPR formats and for cash games, but his upside is very limited. Kenny Stills has struggled to establish rapport with Cutler and is not a fantasy option right now. The same can be said about Julius Thomas, which is somewhat of a surprise given how often Cutler utilized his tight ends in Chicago.

The Takeaway: The two fantasy options that I am interested in are Jay Ajayi and Devante Parker. I will likely avoid everyone else, though you can make a case for Jarvis Landry in full PPR formats. Ajayi gets a boost if the Titans are forced to start Matt Cassel at quarterback, as that would increase the chances that the Dolphins will be able to control the flow of the game.

Los Angeles Chargers						New York Giants
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		3.5	44	20.25				-3.5	44	23.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.0	24	9	29		Offense	15.0	30	7	31
Opp. Defense	23.3	21	5	30		Opp. Defense	22.3	17	6	29
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
New York Giants	20	13	5	30		Los Angeles Chargers	16	19	20	6
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Allen	40	24	1	334		Beckham	33	20	2	205
Williams	24	16	1	238		Marshall	30	16	0	139
Benjamin	20	11	1	180		Shepard	27	21	1	254
Henry	10	9	1	96		Engram	30	19	1	200

Notable injuries and suspensions: Branden Oliver (LAC RB) – Out (Hamstring) / Tyrell Williams (SD WR) – Questionable (Neck) / Paul Perkins (NYG RB) – Out (Ribs)

LAC Matchup Rating: 5.5
NYG Matchup Rating: 6.5

Los Angeles Chargers

Quarterback: This could be one of the sneakier Week 5 games with some shootout potential, and I think the Chargers will show up for a game in New York as they try to avoid an 0-5 start. While it is generally tough to trust West Coast teams traveling east, this is just a gut feel that I have this week. Philip Rivers actually played really well last week against the Eagles, but the defense didn’t have any answers in that game. Rivers does have some weapons at his disposal, he isn’t afraid to sling it, and the Giants currently rank in the bottom six in the league in DVOA against both the pass and the run. They also don’t have a single interception this year, which is a positive for the sometimes careless Rivers. He has a pair of 330+ yard passing games already this season, and he could very easily top the 300 mark once again.

Running Backs: If I had to pick one bounce-back candidate this week, it would almost certainly be Melvin Gordon. The Giants are fresh off allowing 100+ total yards to Jacquizz Rodgers last week, and they have allowed 143 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry so far this season. In other words, they haven’t had much in the way of answers for opposing running games. Injuries and game flow have held Gordon back the last few weeks, but he seems healthy now and is clamoring for more touches. I think he gets them in this game, and 25 touches could lead to a very big performance. Many DFS players have soured on Gordon after he failed in some good spots, so take this opportunity to get him at a lower price along with lower ownership.

Pass Catchers: The numbers may not be jumping off the page on a weekly basis, but Keenan Allen is back, folks. He looks dynamic on his routes and is going to put up some monster weeks before the end of the season. He saw 11 targets last week and posted a 133 yard game against the Eagles, and I do not expect Janoris Jenkins to shadow him since Allen runs a lot of routes from the slot. That is a positive for his matchup, and it is a downgrade to the risk/reward proposition of Tyrell Williams. It is maddening to figure out the usage split between the two tight ends these days, so there is no reason to go there. It remains Allen or bust for me in this group, though Williams does intrigue me moving forward. The fact that I did not mention Williams in this space was my biggest mistake in the Week 4 article, and a shout out is deserved to the commenter who mentioned that before the games kicked off.

The Takeaway: There is some potential for points in this game, and both teams will be hungry for their first win of the year. I actually think the Vegas total is a bit low in this one, and I will be using plenty of Rivers, Gordon, and Allen this week. If we do get some news prior to the weekend that Janoris Jenkins will cover Keenan Allen, then downgrade Allen and upgrade Tyrell Williams.

New York Giants

Quarterback: Eli Manning has finally shown some signs of life over the past two weeks, and it is no coincidence that those came after Odell Beckham returned to (mostly) full health. If you want numbers broken down, here you go:

First two games = 459 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
Last two games = 654 yards, 5 TD, 2 INT

While his completion percentage was actually higher in the first two games, the big plays simply weren’t there. Beckham’s presence helps stretch the field, and it gives Manning access to more upside. I prefer some of the other cheap quarterbacks a little more this week, but I won’t argue with you if you want to use a surging Manning this week.

Running Backs: Simply put, Paul Perkins should not be getting carries on an NFL team at this point. He’s not an NFL talent. Wayne Gallman took over last week (though it took a Perkins injury) and didn’t exactly light the world on fire, but the rookie at least has some potential. The Giants virtually have nothing to lose by giving Gallman a chance at this point, and I think they will give him that chance. Gallman is a really interesting dart throw in GPPs on the cheap this week, and I’ll have some tournament shares. Don’t get carried away, though, as this certainly carries plenty of risk.

SATURDAY UPDATE – Perkins is out this week with a rib injury. Gallman’s stock is rising as a value play.

Pass Catchers: Part of the reason why I am lukewarm at best on Eli Manning this week is because Odell Beckham is sure to be shadowed by elite cover corner Casey Hayward. That negates Beckham’s potential to a significant degree, and the Giants have few other options that are capable of picking up the slack. Remember, Manning put up poor numbers in Weeks 1 and 2. Evan Engram put up a respectable 6/62 line on 11 targets last week, so maybe he gets some value at the tight end position. The Chargers rank dead last in the league in DVOA against the tight end so far this year, making Engram a very strong play in all formats.

The Takeaway: If buzz starts to circulate that Wayne Gallman will start or at least see an increased workload, fire him up as a fine risk/reward value play in tournaments. Eli Manning and Odell Beckham make me nervous this week, especially since Beckham will see a lot of Casey Hayward in coverage. Evan Engram is the best option in the passing game against a defense that has struggled against tight ends.

Arizona Cardinals						Philadelphia Eagles
Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts		Vegas Odds		Spread	Total	Proj.Pts
		6	45.5	19.75				-6	45.5	25.75
Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush		Tm Stats	PPG	Scoring	Pass	Rush
Offense	18.5	22	2	32		Offense	25.8	7	12	3
Opp. Defense	22.7	19	25	5		Opp. Defense	25.3	25	15	9
Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE		Opp. Def vs. Pos	QB	RB	WR	TE
Philadelphia Eagles	23	6	28	23		Arizona Cardinals	19	4	25	2
Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards		Rec. Stats	Targets	Receptions	TDs	Yards
Fitzgerald	41	26	2	276		Jeffery	34	17	2	215
Brown	29	14	1	205		Smith	19	10	0	134
Brown	16	7	0	79		Agholor	18	12	2	173
Gresham	16	10	0	74		Ertz	36	26	1	326

Notable injuries and suspensions: John Brown (ARI WR) – Questionable (Quad) / J.J. Nelson (ARI WR) – Questionable (Hamstring) / Wendell Smallwood (PHI RB) – Questionable (Knee)

ARI Matchup Rating: 4.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.0

Arizona Cardinals

Quarterback: Vegas is not giving much respect to the Cardinals in this game, and I will say that I found the six point line to be a bit higher than I expected. Vegas is smarter than me when it comes to setting lines, so a downgrade to the Arizona skill players is in order. Carson Palmer is going to continue to have to chuck the ball 40+ times per game, as the Cardinals have no running game to speak of. As a team, they have 228 rushing yards through four games, good for 57 yards per game. They are averaging 2.7 yards per carry. Yeah, things are a bit different without David Johnson. Palmer is capable of putting up gaudy statistical numbers even without the most efficient performances, and that is what gives him appeal in DFS. The volume is enough to make up for some of the shortcomings, and his price tag is still surprisingly affordable. The Eagles profile to be weaker against the pass than the run, and I certainly don’t mind Palmer in the mid-range this week.

Running Backs: Don’t do it. Period. Really, don’t.

Pass Catchers: Given Arizona’s increased volume in the passing game, there are going to be targets here. It’s difficult to trust anyone other than Larry Fitzgerald, whose 41 targets rank third in the league behind only DeAndre Hopkins and Dez Bryant. Fitz is obviously the safe play in all formats. If you are looking for upside, John Brown returned to the field last week and played on over 60% of the offensive snaps. That number should only rise this week, and Brown is capable of producing anytime he is healthy. I like him as a massive risk/reward tournament option in a favorable matchup. The other options (Jaron Brown, J.J. Nelson, and whoever the Cardinals trot out there at tight end) are off my fantasy radar this week.

The Takeaway: It’s pretty simple for me, really. Avoid the running game. Target Larry Fitzgerald in all formats. Target John Brown in tournaments. You can use Carson Palmer as a reasonably priced quarterback if you wish. However, the Cardinals do have an alarmingly low team total in this game, so temper the expectations a little bit. Vegas has some respect for the Eagles.

Philadelphia Eagles

Quarterback: Even though he has to face a tough defense, Carson Wentz carries some fantasy appeal on this surging Eagles team. It is also telling that the Eagles have a 26 point implied team total despite a matchup against a Cardinals defense that ranks 12th in overall DVOA this year. Wentz has thrown at least one touchdown in every game so far, and while his yardage numbers aren’t necessarily gaudy, he is doing a good job. He might be asked to do a bit more as the season goes along, but the loss of Darren Sproles does take away one check-down option. However, the emergence of Zach Ertz has helped, and Alshon Jeffery will eventually get some better matchups. I am fine with using Wentz here given the high total for Philadelphia, but I am a little cooler on him than most.

Running Backs: This backfield is going to largely become game script dependent going forward. Even without Darren Sproles, the Eagles still have three “usable” backs in Wendell Smallwood, LeGarrette Blount, and Corey Clement. Smallwood profiles as the best passing down back, Blount profiles as the clock bleeder, and Clement is just a vulture that takes touches away from the other two. In other words, this situation will be almost impossible to figure out. The snaps from a week ago: Smallwood (35), Blount (26), and Clement (19). Good luck figuring this out going forward. Smallwood is still my preferred option, especially in PPR formats, but I do worry a bit with the Eagles being sizable favorites in this game. You can safely avoid the whole group if you wish, which just might be my angle.

SATURDAY UPDATE – There is potential big news here. Smallwood is trending toward doubtful with a knee issue, which is a substantial upgrade for Blount. If Smallwood is inactive, Blount will be a very strong play in a game where the Eagles are sizable favorites and have a surprisingly large team total.

Pass Catchers: Poor Alshon Jeffery continues to draw poor matchups. He will certainly see plenty of Patrick Peterson this week, meaning he will have faced the following corners (at least to some degree) in the first five weeks:

Week 5 = Patrick Peterson
Week 4 = Casey Hayward
Week 3 = Janoris Jenkins
Week 2 = Marcus Peters
Week 1 = Josh Norman

Yowza. That is some group of corners right there. Better days await, but matchups against the Panthers next week and the Redskins (for a second time) the week after mean we might have to wait a little longer. Zach Ertz is reaping the benefits of Jeffery’s tough matchups, and he has 26 catches on a whopping 36 targets already. Arizona has been below average against tight ends this year, and Ertz is right there with Gronkowski in the discussion of the top tight ends on the slate. I can’t go for any of the other inconsistent value receivers.

The Takeaway: Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz are fine targets in the passing game, and Ertz has been a breakout star in the season’s first month. The backfield is a bit crowded even without Darren Sproles, but Wendell Smallwood remains my favorite of the group. The Eagles are expected to score a lot of points here, though I do think their team total is a bit too high. Alshon Jeffery is off limits for me in another difficult individual matchup.

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