NFL Grind Down: Week 5
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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Implied Team Totals
INJURIES – I will update all notable injuries/suspensions on Saturday morning after we have final injury reports
| New England Patriots | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -5 | 56 | 30.5 | 5 | 56 | 25.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.3 | 2 | 1 | 20 | Offense | 23.7 | 12 | 3 | 26 | |
| Opp. Defense | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Opp. Defense | 31.7 | 30 | 30 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 28 | 11 | 30 | 9 | New England Patriots | 30 | 30 | 27 | 27 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cooks | 24 | 13 | 2 | 294 | Evans | 32 | 19 | 2 | 227 | |
| Hogan | 26 | 15 | 4 | 214 | Jackson | 20 | 9 | 1 | 143 | |
| Amendola | 19 | 15 | 1 | 190 | Humphries | 20 | 14 | 0 | 156 | |
| Gronkowski | 30 | 20 | 2 | 318 | Brate | 13 | 10 | 2 | 137 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Rex Burkhead (NE RB) – Out (Ribs) / Rob Gronkowski (NE TE) – Questionable (Thigh)
NE Matchup Rating: 8.0
TB Matchup Rating: 8.5
New England Patriots
Quarterback: The first game of the week should be one of the most exciting fantasy games of Week 5, which means it is simply destined to let us all down. The Patriots’ defense has taken a step back this year, but that’s good news for the fantasy value of Tom Brady. With the team not able to get out to huge leads most of the time, Brady has been forced to the air much more often than we are used to, and he could very well have one of his best seasons by the time all is said and done. This game features the two teams that are allowing the most passing yards per game in the league, and it’s not even close. Tampa Bay is allowing 316 pass yards per game and New England sits at 324. The next closest team is over 30 yards better than Tampa Bay. Yes, Brady is a fine option if you are spending up at quarterback.
Running Backs: With New England being in come from behind mode more often this year, it has limited the appeal of Mike Gillislee. James White has been the biggest beneficiary and has played on the most snaps of the group. He played on a season high 61% of the snaps a week ago against the Panthers. If the Patriots simply take to the air in this game, which they might, White could catch another six to eight passes in this game. He is my preferred option in PPR formats, while you can give Gillislee a look in tournaments if you think the game script will be more favorable this week.
Pass Catchers: If you would have asked me who the touchdown machine would be in the Patriots passing game this year, Chris Hogan is not the answer that I would have submitted to the panel. Alas, Hogan leads the team with four touchdown grabs in four games, and he has more catches than Brandin Cooks — though Cooks does have quite a few more yards. Rob Gronkowski is also plugging away with a 20/318/2 line through four weeks, and he should continue to be a top tier tight end as long as he stays healthy. I expect touchdown regression from Hogan at some point and don’t love chasing the points, so I prefer Cooks and Gronkowski here even though they will cost you a little more. All of them are in play, and you could even pair two of them with Brady in a GPP if you think the shootout will materialize.
UPDATE – Gronkowski has been added to the injury report as questionable with a thigh issue. If he is out, upgrade the wide receivers quite a bit, while Dwayne Allen would become an interesting sleeper play.
The Takeaway: The Patriots have been installed with a projected team total north of 30 points in this game. That is a lot of points. Tom Brady is obviously an elite quarterback option, and I would rank my passing game interest as Cooks/Gronkowski/Hogan in that order, though a lot of that is splitting hairs in expecting touchdown regression from Hogan. In the backfield, James White remains the strongest PPR option, though Mike Gillislee could have a good game if the Patriots grab a lead.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: I did not expect the Patriots to be as porous as they have been defensively, but they have gotten shredded by the likes of Alex Smith and Cam Newton this year, and those quarterbacks aren’t necessarily the cream of the crop in the league these days. Jameis Winston is not afraid to play with an aggressive mindset, and that should serve him well against a struggling defense. With plenty of weapons at his disposal, Winston is a solid option that comes at a reasonable price. I’m a buyer.
Running Backs: Doug Martin will return this week, and that muddies up the backfield situation in Tampa. With this being his first game back combined with the short week, I would still expect Jacquizz Rodgers to lead the the backfield in snaps, but that is merely an educated guess on my part. On full week slates, it makes sense to take the wait and see approach to see how this game plays out. If you are playing the Monday/Thursday slates, Rodgers is my preferred play unless we get additional news.
Pass Catchers: The Patriots rank dead last in almost every defensive metric against the pass this year, so there’s nothing to say other than fire up your Tampa Bay receivers. Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson both carry immense upside in this matchup, while the tight ends could also be involved. O.J. Howard is playing a few more snaps than Cameron Brate, but Brate has seen 13 targets (10 catches) compared to just eight targets for Howard (four catches). Brate is the better bet for production, but I will likely pass on both.
The Takeaway: Winston, Evans, and Jackson are fantastic options, and I will roll out some Winston/Evans and some Winston/Jackson pairings in GPP formats. Winston is affordable enough that you could even do this in cash games (though I prefer Evans over Jackson in those formats). The backfield is a bit of a mess with Doug Martin returning, and I recommend staying away from that on any full week slates.
| Buffalo Bills | Cincinnati Bengals | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 38.5 | 17.75 | -3 | 38.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.3 | 23 | 30 | 15 | Offense | 16.0 | 27 | 19 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.0 | 9 | 4 | 23 | Opp. Defense | 12.3 | 1 | 11 | 6 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9 | 9 | 6 | 5 | Buffalo Bills | 2 | 8 | 8 | 7 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 17 | 4 | 0 | 57 | Green | 38 | 25 | 2 | 315 | |
| Holmes | 8 | 6 | 2 | 35 | LaFell | 17 | 10 | 0 | 76 | |
| Clay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 28 | Ross | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clay | 25 | 18 | 2 | 227 | Kroft | 12 | 10 | 2 | 101 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Jordan Matthews (BUF WR) – Out (Thumb) / Tyler Eifert (CIN TE) – Out (Back)
BUF Matchup Rating: 3.5
CIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback: Tyrod Taylor is coming off a nice “game manager” type performance last week, as the Bills held on for an impressive road with over the Falcons. The problem is that the big numbers aren’t there, and they aren’t likely going to be there given Taylor’s lack of options at receiver. He threw for just 182 yards and completed just 12 passes against the Falcons, and he didn’t do much with his legs. The Bills have a low team total of just 18 points this week, and I have no interest in Taylor as a value play in this road matchup.
Running Backs: Like it or not, we are not going to see LeSean McCoy playing on 90% of the offensive snaps for the Bills. He has said that he does not want to play on every single down, and the team appears strangely comfortable using Mike Tolbert as a change-of-pace back. I find that decision a bit odd, but it is what it is. McCoy is too expensive for my liking, though his involvement in the passing game is a nice bonus. I prefer better options this week, though, and will have limited (if any) exposure to McCoy.
Pass Catchers: Part of the reason why Tyrod Taylor will struggle to put up big numbers this year is because the Bills’ wide receiving options are about as barren as the kitchen cupboards of a family with three teenage kids before the weekly grocery run. With Jordan Matthews now set to miss at least a month, someone has officially cooked the last box of Kraft Macaroni and Cheese. That is when you know dire straits have set in. Charles Clay might be the big beneficiary of all this, as Taylor is looking his way more often. Clay saw a team high seven targets last week against Atlanta, parlaying them into a sturdy 5/112 line. I like Clay as a value/mid range tight end pick, and I will gladly avoid the rest of this group.
The Takeaway: There is not a lot to love with this Buffalo team, which is to be expected given their low implied team total. Charles Clay is the best option, and you might even want to consider the Bengals defense as a tournament target that might get over-looked by the masses.
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback: The recent offensive coordinator change has certainly sparked the Bengals’ offense, though part of it could have something to do with the fact that they played the Browns last week. In any case, Andy Dalton is gaining steam as a potential low-cost DFS option in the right matchups. This is not the best matchup, as he has to face a Bills team that quietly ranks 3rd in DVOA against the pass and has allowed just 213 passing yards per game so far this season. I wouldn’t actively tell you not to play Dalton, as he is still very affordable, but keep expectations in check a little bit this week.
Running Backs: Well, the Joe Mixon train fell off the tracks a bit in Week 4, as he struggled his way to 17 carries for just 29 yards against the Browns. As a team, the Bengals rushed 30 times for just 86 yards and no touchdowns, despite scoring 31 points. Mixon still seems to be limited to around a 50% snap rate, and he actually played a lot in the fourth quarter last week despite the blowout, so that is not the reason that his snap rate was down. I do think he is a nice rebound candidate this week, and his ownership will surely plunge, but there is plenty of risk involved.
Pass Catchers: It’s all about A.J. Green in this receiving corps. He has logged 15 catches on 20 targets over the past two games, finding the end zone in each of them. Ever since he spoke up about the offensive struggles, the team has made an effort to get him the ball. It’s funny how that works. He could have had an even better day last week if not for the blowout. Even though the Bills have been stout defensively, Green is a top five receiving option again this week. The other wide receivers can be left alone, but I do also like Tyler Kroft as a value at tight end. I recommended him in this space last week, and it worked out very well (it also helped me to a nice five figure score on FanDuel). Kroft played on all but one offensive snap last week for the Bengals, and he caught six of his seven targets for 68 yards and a touchdown. Keep an eye on Tyler Eifert status for this week. If he is out for another game, fire up Kroft as one of the better value plays on the board.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Eifert is confirmed out, so the analysis above holds.
The Takeaway: This game has one of the lower totals of the week, so there’s no reason to go crazy here. Andy Dalton and Joe Mixon are reasonable plays at their salaries, and Mixon is going to have a breakout game at some point. With the community souring on him after last week’s dud, this is a nice spot to give him a look in tournaments. A.J. Green is a fine high-end option at wide receiver, while Tyler Kroft remains a great value tight end target if Tyler Eifert misses another game.
| New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 39 | 19.5 | 0 | 39 | 19.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.8 | 21 | 25 | 7 | Offense | 15.8 | 28 | 16 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.3 | 25 | 18 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 24.0 | 22 | 11 | 25 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 27 | 14 | 11 | 29 | New York Jets | 14 | 28 | 17 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Anderson | 24 | 12 | 1 | 204 | Britt | 23 | 8 | 1 | 121 | |
| Kearse | 24 | 18 | 2 | 182 | Louis | 20 | 10 | 0 | 133 | |
| Kerley | 13 | 13 | 0 | 93 | Higgins | 21 | 9 | 0 | 105 | |
| Seferian-Jenkins | 10 | 9 | 0 | 77 | DeValve | 18 | 9 | 0 | 134 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Matt Forte (NYJ RB) – Out (Knee) / Kenny Britt (CLE WR) – Doubtful (Knee)
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.0
New York Jets
Quarterback: Will anybody be watching this game? This is going to be some ugly football, though I have to hand it to the Jets for winning back-to-back games after everyone thought they would go 0-16. They have the same record as the Patriots. Break up the Jets! Even though the Jets have won a few games, Josh McCown still hasn’t thrown for more than 250 yards in a game this year, and he has just three total touchdown passes. There are better options on the cheap.
Running Backs: Matt Forte looks to be trending toward another absence this week, which is good news for the Bilal Powell lovers out there. If the Jaguars would not have fallen asleep at the wheel and let him get up and run for a 75 yard touchdown after he tripped last week, Powell would have had a relatively ordinary day. However, we can play the “ifs, ands, and buts” game all day long. The fact of the matter is that Powell turned 25 total touches into almost 200 total yards, and his snap count rose all the way to the 66% mark in a game that went to overtime. I’m not a huge believer in him, and I don’t love the price point or the matchup against a quietly solid rush defense, so I will fade him this week. However, that fade does come with a bit of risk.
Pass Catchers: No Jets pass catcher is averaging more than 51 yards per game this season, and the number is only that high because Robby Anderson ripped off a 69 yard touchdown in Week 3. Don’t waste your time with this group.
The Takeaway: Well, I might be under-valuing the suddenly surging Jets, but I am not buying into this. They still have a relatively low team total, and the Browns aren’t a pushover defense against the run. That indicates to me that the Jets will struggle here, as they don’t have a strong passing attack. Outside of an overpriced Bilal Powell, there’s not much to like here.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: DeShone Kizer has certainly gone through his share of growing pains at the NFL level, with an alarming eight interceptions though four games. It is clear that he is far less polished than the likes of Deshaun Watson, and it will take some time before Kizer is truly relevant as a DFS option. The Jets are only allowing 195 passing yards per game and are much weaker against the run than the pass. Leave Kizer on the shelf this week.
Running Backs: If the Browns are going to have success and win a few games this year, this represents one of their better opportunities. It has been a struggle for Isaiah Crowell so far this season, and his snap count is trending in the wrong direction. Part of last week’s low snap count was because the game turned into a blowout in the early going, but we can find all sorts of excuses for his lack of production. The struggles at the quarterback position can be added in there. If there is a “get right” spot for Crowell, this is it against a Jets defense that ranks just 27th in DVOA against the run. However, it’s possible that he will just struggle all year. I’m not chomping at the bit to take Crowell, but there is some upside at a cheap price if the game flow goes his way. Duke Johnson remains a reasonable value option in PPR formats.
Pass Catchers: It’s hard to blame Kizer for the entirety of the Browns’ struggles in the passing game. He did show some nice rapport with Corey Coleman before he got hurt, so that was a tough blow. Rashard Higgins has been a bust as a regular player over the last two games, catching just two passes. Higgins did not see a single target last week despite playing on over 80% of the offensive snaps. Kenny Britt seems to be in full “”(player-popup #jay-cutler)Jay Cutler”:/players/jay-cutler-11606 don’t care dot gif” mode at this point. There’s nothing to get excited about here.
SATURDAY UPDATE – Britt is doubtful for this game, which gives Higgins a small upgrade. I’m still not getting too excited.
The Takeaway: I have very little interest in this game. If there is a spot to target against the Jets, it would be the running game, but a time share and a rough start for Isaiah Crowell make this a tough spot to target. I don’t mind taking a shot with Crowell in some tournament lineups given his low salary.
| Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 44 | 20.5 | -3 | 44 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.5 | 20 | 18 | 13 | Offense | 24.8 | 10 | 21 | 19 | |
| Opp. Defense | 21.0 | 13 | 22 | 11 | Opp. Defense | 13.3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Detroit Lions | 5 | 16 | 14 | 8 | Carolina Panthers | 8 | 12 | 16 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Benjamin | 19 | 13 | 0 | 214 | Tate | 32 | 24 | 1 | 219 | |
| Funchess | 28 | 17 | 2 | 216 | Jones | 18 | 8 | 2 | 130 | |
| Shepard | 6 | 4 | 1 | 72 | Golladay | 15 | 7 | 2 | 102 | |
| Dickson | 9 | 6 | 0 | 96 | Ebron | 19 | 11 | 1 | 87 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kenny Golladay (DET WR) – Out (Hamstring)
CAR Matchup Rating: 6.5
DET Matchup Rating: 5.5
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: Cam Newton just can’t get out of his own way, and it will be interesting to see how he performs after getting roasted the media this week. It was fair criticism, too, as his comments to a female reporter were 100% unnecessary, regardless of whether he intended it to be a joke or not. As for his performance on the field, Newton is coming off his best performance of the young season in a rock solid performance against the Patriots, but lots of quarterbacks are putting up huge numbers against New England. I believe he will be wildly over-drafted in DFS formats this week, and I will happily play the fade in tournaments. If there is one thing we have learned over the years, it’s that Cam will be inconsistent on a weekly basis. Don’t put too much stock into one big game against an underwhelming defense. Let’s see him do it more regularly before getting excited.
Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey has been comfortably out-snapping Jonathan Stewart on a weekly basis, and Stewart’s lost fumble last week likely won’t help him going forward. McCaffrey is not suddenly going to become the goal line back, but he will continue to see a lot of targets in the passing game. He is going to be inconsistent on a weekly basis, but I like his prospects of breaking a big play on the fast turf in Detroit. It is a bit concerning that he has not logged a 40+ yard play yet through four weeks, but a big play is coming. McCaffrey cannot be trusted in cash games, but he remains solidly on the GPP radar here.
Pass Catchers: The inconsistency of Cam Newton has made it difficult to trust anyone from this unit, and the loss of Greg Olsen hasn’t helped, either. Kelvin Benjamin has been a disappointment, and while he did put up 100+ yards against the Patriots, he still caught just four passes. He has just 19 targets through four games, though he did leave one early due to injury. It’s hard to get excited about him on a weekly basis. However, it is worth noting that he is barely more expensive than Devin Funchess now on FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft, and Benjamin is certainly a more talented receiver. All told, I’m not really excited about anyone here, as Detroit quietly ranks 5th in the league in DVOA against the pass. There are better options out there. I’m not paying the new premium on Funchess.
The Takeaway: Meh. The fact that the Panthers are three point underdogs here despite being 3-1 and coming off a road win in New England speaks volumes. There are no consistent fantasy options on this offense. While Newton and McCaffrey and to some extent Benjamin bring some upside to the table, they also have low floors. This entire offense is better utilized in GPPs than cash games.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback: The Lions have not been afraid to dial Matthew Stafford back a little bit when able this year, as he has had a couple of quiet games thanks to game flow. He has attempted 40+ passes in the other two, and I expect something in the middle this week. The matchup is also middle of the road against a solid, if unspectacular, Carolina pass defense. I am 100% neutral on this situation. If you like Stafford, fine. If you don’t like him, feel free to take another quarterback on a full slate.
Running Backs: The usage in last week’s game is promising, but we have to pump the breaks just a little bit on Ameer Abdullah. He has yet to clear a 51% snap rate in any game this season, and the Lions are not going to run the ball 31 times every week. Carolina has a solid defense at every level, so the upside is relatively limited, especially since Abdullah is not heavily involved in the passing game. If you expect the Lions to fall behind in this game, Theo Riddick carries a little extra value as the passing down back. I expect this game to be close and will shy away from the entire situation.
Pass Catchers: Golden Tate has logged 32 targets so far this year, which is considerably more than anyone else in the receiving corps. Outside of the aforementioned Riddick, nobody else has logged more than 20 targets. Tate is the clear PPR option from this unit, while Marvin Jones brings a little more big play potential. Eric Ebron continues to disappoint despite lofty expectations. In other words, the beat goes on in Detroit. Tate is a reasonable cash game play on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. I’m much less excited on FanDuel, where I will have pretty much zero Detroit exposure this week.
The Takeaway: A few years ago, a Carolina/Detroit game would have profiled as a shootout. That’s not the case anymore, and both teams possess solid defensive units. I actually don’t mind targeting a defense here. My favorite play on Detroit is Golden Tate in full PPR formats, but even he isn’t exactly a screaming value. I promise that there are better options on the coming pages!