NFL Grind Down: Week 6 - Page Four
New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts
| New England Patriots | Indianapolis Colts | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Lucas Oil Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -8 | 55 | 31.5 | 8 | 55 | 23.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 37.3 | 2 | 9 | 29 | Offense | 19.8 | 24 | 18 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 22.6 | 16 | 26 | 19 | Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 7 | 15 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Indianapolis Colts | 21 | 18 | 30 | 12 | New England Patriots | 10 | 5 | 9 | 14 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Edelman | 47 | 34 | 3 | 420 | Hilton | 50 | 27 | 0 | 382 | |
| Amendola | 13 | 10 | 1 | 101 | Johnson | 27 | 13 | 2 | 128 | |
| Dobson | 12 | 9 | 0 | 101 | Moncrief | 38 | 24 | 3 | 278 | |
| Gronkowski | 33 | 20 | 4 | 375 | Fleener | 22 | 16 | 1 | 148 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Dion Lewis (NE, Questionable), Andrew Luck, Frank Gore (IND, Questionable)
NE Matchup Rating: 9.5
IND Matchup Rating: 5.0
New England Patriots
Quarterback: This game is set up to be the NFL version of “snitches get stitches” as the Patriots take on the team that “turned them in” and started the Deflategate scandal. Tom Brady (FD $9,000, DK $8,100) has already been taking out his and the team’s collective frustration on the NFL for the way they mishandled the case against them, and now they get to face the team that started the whole ordeal. Not a big fan of narratives? Don’t worry. The Colts are a bottom-ten team against the pass, and have allowed the 11th-most points to opposing quarterbacks, and that’s against a schedule featuring Tyrod Taylor, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles and the Houston quarterbacks. Tom Brady is clearly superior to all of those passers, and should have a field day against the Colts.
Running Game: There has been a lot of talk about this being a “big back” game for the Patriots, since LeGarrette Blount (FD $6,500, DK $4,400) and Jonas Gray did so well against the Colts last year. But in general this season, backs have not had as much success against the Colts as they did in 2014, with T.J. Yeldon representing the top rusher against Indy this year. There’s no doubt that Blount may punch in three or four touchdowns despite an otherwise pedestrian rushing total, but I would much prefer Dion Lewis (FD $7,200, DK $5,800) for daily fantasy purposes. He’s the more talented back, and will be able to exploit the Indianapolis defense the same way Arian Foster did last week as a receiver. Look for Lewis to be a big part of the reason why the Patriots get out to a big lead in this one, which may bring Blount into the game for some garbage time work, meaning both are strong tournament options, but with the obvious caveat that both are going to be popular.
Pass Catchers: If I’m picking one facet of the New England offense for cash games, it’s going to be the passing game. The Patriots will attack an opponent’s weakness, and for the Colts, that is definitely their pass defense. Vontae Davis is very good, but hasn’t lived up to expectations so far this season, and he has only played 2% of his snaps this season in the slot, according to Pro Football Focus. That means he’s unlikely to find himself lined up across from Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,200, DK $7,600) or Julian Edelman (FD $7,900, DK $7,600) more than a handful of times in this game, and both players are the ones you want to target in this receiving corps. Darius Butler has been terrible as a slot corner this year, which means Edelman and Danny Amendola (FD $4,800, DK $3,400) have plus matchups when they line up inside. Edelman and Gronkowski are cash game plays, Amendola is a tournament flier due to his low volume.
The Takeaway: The Patriots look to take advantage of opponent weaknesses, and the Colts are very weak against the pass, especially when receivers are covered by someone other than Vontae Davis. Fire up the passing game in cash contests, or roll with Dion Lewis, but be wary of high ownership levels in tournaments for all New England offensive players.
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: Andrew Luck (FD $8,600, DK $7,600) has seen his status fluctuate from “Yes, he’s going to play,” to “No, he’s out,” two weeks in a row now, but it does seem like he’s actually getting closer to a return just in time for this key matchup. With that said, he looked terrible in his first couple of starts, and will face a Patriots defense that ranks seventh in Football Outsiders rankings against the pass. Luck is still priced like the weekly fantasy superstar he was a year ago, but it doesn’t appear he’s that guy so far in 2015, and especially not with a nagging shoulder injury. Look elsewhere for a pricey quarterback for this week’s contests.
Running Game: The Patriots allowed a big game on the ground to DeAngelo Williams in Week 1, and let LeSean McCoy and Joseph Randle pick up decent yardage on limited touches, but game flow is the biggest enemy of opponents’ rushing attacks against New England. Ahmad Bradshaw has rejoined the team and will eventually work his way into a ten-touches-per-game role with passing game responsibilities, but for now, Frank Gore (FD $7,000, DK $4,900) and Josh Robinson (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) are the backs who get work in this offense, and neither can be trusted in this game the Colts should lose by a healthy amount.
Pass Catchers: T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,400, DK $6,500) and Donte Moncrief (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) lead the Colts in targets, and now that Indy isn’t facing his former team, we will likely see the focus shift back away from Andre Johnson (FD $6,000, DK $4,300) and to the younger, more talented receivers. And while Andrew Luck might not be appealing for DFS purposes, Hilton and Moncrief could still carry some value, with the former preferred due to his more stable workload and his apparent return to health. Johnson is worth a flier, as well, but I don’t trust his one-week breakout against a bad defense as a sign of things to come. Neither tight end is consistent involved in the offense, and can both be ignored in this tough matchup.
The Takeaway: The Colts will chase this game, which means there should be plenty of passes thrown, keeping the Indy receivers relevant. Otherwise, this could get ugly, and you don’t want to have too much exposure to this offense.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
| New York Giants | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 50 | 23 | -4 | 50 | 27 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.4 | 7 | 7 | 25 | Offense | 23.4 | 14 | 15 | 22 | |
| Opp. Defense | 20.6 | 11 | 27 | 10 | Opp. Defense | 21.8 | 14 | 31 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 22 | 8 | 29 | 7 | New York Giants | 25 | 22 | 17 | 30 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Beckham Jr. | 52 | 31 | 3 | 431 | Matthews | 45 | 30 | 1 | 325 | |
| Cruz | Huff | 11 | 8 | 1 | 117 | |||||
| Randle | 26 | 19 | 2 | 217 | Agholor | 17 | 8 | 0 | 105 | |
| Donnell | 30 | 21 | 2 | 154 | Celek | 6 | 5 | 2 | 60 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Rueben Randle, Odell Beckham Jr. (NYG, Questionable), Nelson Agholor, Riley Cooper (PHI, Questionable)
NYG Matchup Rating: 5.5
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.5
New York Giants
Quarterback: The Eagles are surprisingly good against the pass according to the advanced metrics, ranking tenth in Football Outsiders DVOA, and eighth in numberFire’s rankings. However, a lot of that is driven by their ability to generate turnovers, something Eli Manning (FD $7,800, DK $6,800) struggles with, but turnovers only lose a couple of points apiece in DFS. And in an up-tempo game projected to feature around 50 points, I’ll take the shot at 300 yards and three touchdowns at the risk of three turnovers as well. Philadelphia have allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league despite their relatively good per-pass efficiency, just because teams run more plays against their defense thanks to their uptempo offense, and because teams are less likely to run against their legitimate front seven.
Running Game: The Eagles have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs this year. No runner has scored a touchdown or gone over 100 yards against Philly yet this season. The Giants have an ugly three-headed monster at running back, and not one of those players are worthy of serious consideration this weekend. Shane Vereen (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) would be the one to consider, especially if one of the New York receivers is ruled out, but even then, keep him on tournament rosters only.
Pass Catchers: If Odell Beckham Jr. (FD $9,100, DK $8,900) plays, he’s a must-start. The Eagles have allowed the third-most points to wideouts so far this season, and even if they allowed the third-fewest, OBJ would still be in play. He’s matchup-proof, and faces a defense that’s allowed four 100-yard games so far this year. The problem is… he’s hurt. If he doesn’t play, things get a bit tricky, since no one is going to replicate what he does at the receiver position. Rueben Randle (FD $5,700, DK $4,400) would be the leading candidate to fill the void, but he’s hurt as well, and tends to swing and miss in big spots for daily fantasy players. Dwayne Harris (FD $5,300, DK $3,100) was previously known more for his work on special teams, but he’s carved out a role as a slot receiver, and he’d likely see a lot of the volume if one or both of the previously mentioned receivers sat out. And Larry Donnell (FD $5,300, DK $2,800) is still hanging around at the tight end position, with inconsistent hands but two-touchdown upside as a top red zone target. The injury status of the top two players will determine how the rest shake out, but assuming everyone plays, Beckham is the guy you want, and if he doesn’t play, I’m rolling with Harris or Donnell.
The Takeaway: Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. is also a viable tournament stack, and OBJ alone is worthy of selection in any format. Otherwise, there aren’t many reliable options on this New York offense.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Sam Bradford (FD $7,700, DK $6,000) has nearly tripled his touchdown total for the season over his last two games, tossing five scores and throwing for over 600 yards in Weeks 4 and 5. He seems to be slowly finding his way in Chip Kelly’s offense, and is figuring things out just in time to face a New York defense that has allowed the ninth-most points to opposing passers this year, and that has lost starting corner Prince Amukamara for a month due to injury. His price is still fair, the volume will still be there, and the matchup is good (and deceptively so, with Amukamara’s injury taking away one of the few strengths of the New York defense). He’s in play in any format.
Running Game: The Giants rank second in DVOA against the run, but have allowed fantasy points to pile up thanks to the passing game. Running backs have combined for 321 receiving yards and two scores against the G-Men this year, and that’s something the Eagles are capable of recreating… but with who? DeMarco Murray (FD $7,600, DK $6,000) is the top candidate to be run behind a bad offensive line against a strong run defense, while Ryan Mathews (FD $5,600, DK $3,500) will spell him occasionally and likely steal some red zone opportunities as well. Darren Sproles (FD $5,500, DK $3,800) is the back best suited for success in the passing game, but he just doesn’t have guaranteed volume there. I think Murray is a tournament play, but Mathews and Sproles don’t have roles that are defined enough to merit inclusion in any lineups.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $6,600, DK $6,200) has nearly 30 more targets than the next closest wide receiver for the Eagles this season. If you’re pairing Bradford with a passing game target, Matthews is the clear-cut top option. He’ll see the coverage of Trumaine McBride, a slot corner PFF determines to be well below replacement level. Nelson Agholor (FD $5,000, DK $3,600) is looking unlikely to suit up this week, but the targets in this offense are spread so thin among non-Matthews wideouts that it’s tough to trust any of them. Josh Huff (FD $5,300, DK $3,100) would be the most intriguing of the non-Matthews receivers, but I think I’d rather take my chances on Zach Ertz (FD $5,000, DK $2,900) finally getting a red zone catch to go with his between-the-20s work.
The Takeaway: Bradford to Matthews is the pairing you want to get the best chance of catching some of the 50-point total in this game. Otherwise, you’re stuck sorting through bad matchups, a struggling offensive line and uncertain roles to find anyone else to put on a roster.