NFL Grind Down: Week 6
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Washington Redskins at New York Jets
| Washington Redskins | New York Jets | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | MetLife Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 40.5 | 17.25 | -6 | 40.5 | 23.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.4 | 25 | 21 | 9 | Offense | 23.8 | 12 | 30 | 18 | |
| Opp. Defense | 13.8 | 1 | 3 | 8 | Opp. Defense | 20.8 | 12 | 10 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New York Jets | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | Washington Redskins | 8 | 4 | 23 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Marshall | 44 | 30 | 3 | 400 | |
| Garcon | 43 | 27 | 2 | 267 | Decker | 19 | 14 | 3 | 180 | |
| Grant | 24 | 12 | 0 | 118 | Smith | 15 | 5 | 0 | 53 | |
| Reed | 34 | 24 | 1 | 278 | Cumberland | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed (WAS, Out), Bilal Powell (NYJ, Game-time decision), Chris Ivory, Eric Decker (NYJ, Probable)
WAS Matchup Rating: 1.5
NYJ Matchup Rating: 4.5
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: Washington has the lowest team total outside of the game being played in Seattle, as they face a tough Jets defense in New York, and they still have Kirk Cousins (FD $6,200, DK $5,100) under center. Cousins has been extremely consistent, throwing one touchdown in every game thus far, but has also tossed two interceptions in three of his five starts, and has failed to top 220 yards on three occasions as well. He’s not good, and he faces a defense that has allowed the second-fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, and ranks second in numberFire’s team defensive metrics against the pass. Stay away.
Running Game: A three-way backfield timeshare against the top run defense in the NFL? Next.
Pass Catchers: Jamison Crowder (FD $5,500, DK $3,600) has carved out a role as a short-throw possession receiver, and may see enough volume to hit value on a PPR site, but otherwise, I wouldn’t trust this Washington pass offense to generate enough positive plays to give us a usable daily fantasy option.
The Takeaway: There’s a reason why Washington has such a low matchup rating. This will be a slow game against a tough defense on the road. Don’t go bargain hunting here, there are other games with bad offenses in good spots where you can find some hidden values.
New York Jets
Quarterback: It hasn’t always been pretty, but Ryan Fitzpatrick (FD $6,900, DK $5,000) has returned some decent DFS performances so far this season. His first three starts all featured two touchdown passes, and while his trip to London didn’t return as good of a start, he’s back in the states now after a bye week and will face a defense that allowed Eli Manning and Sam Bradford to have very solid games prior to Matt Ryan’s letdown in Week 5. This is hardly a slam dunk, especially since the Jets may dominate this game and Fitzpatrick may be held back, but there are definitely worse bargain options this week than Fitzmagic.
Running Game: Chris Ivory (FD $7,300, DK $5,100) has been the lead back for the Jets this season, posting a huge game in Week 1, and then being limited with injuries until Week 4’s 166-yard breakout against the Dolphins. In his two “fully healthy” games, he had over 20 touches and 100 total yards. However, despite their status as one of the worse teams in the NFL, Washington actually have a decent run defense. They’ve been deceptively good against opposing backs dating back to last season, and they’re off to a good start in 2015, allowing the second-fewest points to backs so far. A pretty good player in a bad matchup is a tough call to have to make, especially when volume and game script should be on his side. Ivory is a tournament option.
Pass Catchers: Brandon Marshall (FD $8,000, DK $7,100) is a target machine, and is viable in all formats this weekend. Eric Decker (FD $6,100, DK $4,900) finds his way into the end zone more often than not, and is a tournament option this weekend. Devin Smith (FD $4,700, DK $3,000) has only caught five of his 15 targets so far this season, and no other passing game option is worthy of your consideration. Washington has some serious injury issues in their defensive backfield at the moment, and if Bashaud Breeland is forced to sit out with the ailment he’s dealing with, Washington simply won’t have the manpower to slow down Marshall or Decker.
The Takeaway: The Jets have a relatively tough matchup in a game they should win easily on the strength of their defense. The defensive unit is in play for DFS purposes against the turnover prone Cousins, while Fitzpatrick, Ivory, Decker and Marshall are all in play on offense.
Arizona Cardinals at Pittsburgh Steelers
| Arizona Cardinals | Pittsburgh Steelers | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Heinz Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 44 | 23.5 | 3 | 44 | 20.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 38.0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | Offense | 24.0 | 11 | 16 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.0 | 7 | 20 | 15 | Opp. Defense | 18.0 | 5 | 12 | 11 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 | 6 | 19 | 31 | Arizona Cardinals | 13 | 15 | 20 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Fitzgerald | 44 | 35 | 6 | 490 | Archer | |||||
| Floyd | 17 | 8 | 0 | 104 | Brown | 50 | 37 | 2 | 523 | |
| Brown | 31 | 23 | 2 | 314 | Wheaton | 18 | 9 | 1 | 228 | |
| Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | Miller | 21 | 16 | 1 | 163 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: John Brown (ARI, Probable), Ben Roethlisberger (PIT, Out)
ARI Matchup Rating: 7.0
PIT Matchup Rating: 4.0
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback: So far this season, Carson Palmer (FD $8,000, DK $6,600) has not seen his opportunity to throw touchdowns decline when his team scores an easy, runaway victory. In fact, the veteran quarterback had his season-high four touchdowns on only 24 attempts against the bears, and threw for three scores on 32 throws against the Saints, and 14 (!!!) throws against the Lions. In fact, it was a competitive game against the Rams which saw Palmer post his lowest touchdown total of the season on 46 attempts, which means the time to avoid Palmer isn’t a likely blowout, but in a difficult matchup. The Steelers are definitely not the latter. Pittsburgh ranks 18th in pass defense according to Football Outsiders, and while they held Nick Foles and Joe Flacco in check in back-to-back weeks, they’ve otherwise let opposing quarterbacks have very solid fantasy days, with Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick and Philip Rivers combining for eight touchdowns and nearly 1000 yards. This is the right sort of situation for Palmer to continue his trend of scoring early and often against an outmatched opponent, and he’s in play in all formats this week.
Running Game: This game is one of two this weekend (Monday Night Football is the other) to feature two top-five DVOA defenses against the run. The Steelers rank fifth in that metric, and are third against the run according to numberFire’s data. Justin Forsett was able to run for 150 yards on 27 carries against the Steeler defense, but otherwise, no back has gone over 70 yards on the ground, and no running back has found his way into the end zone at all this season. Backs catching passes out of the backfield have been able to find success against the Steelers on occasion this year, but figuring out which Arizona back will get targets in this game is a nightmare. The back who will see the most carries is obvious, that’s Chris Johnson (FD $7,200, DK $4,600). The rejuvenated runner has stepped into the starter’s role and gets most of the touches in the Cardinal backfield. But this is a pretty tough matchup, and Johnson only has seven targets on the season. David Johnson (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) and Andre Ellington (FD $5,600, DK $5,000) both have skill sets suited for the passing game, but neither has a secure workload in the offense at the moment. Backs have combined for only 27 of the team’s 149 targets, anyways, so I’m not going to chase the possibility of a checkdown or two, and will stay away from a tough run defense.
Pass Catchers: Instead, let’s look to the passing game for some potential point scorers for daily fantasy football. Larry Fitzgerald (FD $7,500, DK $7,000) has gone over 80 yards or scored in every game this season. With a floor of 10-12 points and multiple touchdown upside, Fitzgerald is a top option, especially against a defense ill-equipped to stop him. The veteran wideout spends most of his time in the slot, which puts him against the subpar coverage of William Gay. However, two of the biggest performances through the air against Pittsburgh have come from the boom-or-bust Torrey Smith and Kenny Britt. These explosive receivers found room to work against the Steelers and both logged over 100 yards, with Smith hauling in a 75-yard catch. That sets a good precedent for John Brown (FD $6,100, DK $5,200), who is dealing with a slight injury, but if he’s active, he has a chance to finally connect on the big play that’s been coming for him this season. He’s drawn several pass interference penalties that have set his team up in great spots, but not his fantasy owners. Michael Floyd (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) is capable of the big play, as well, but he’s this offense’s fourth option after Fitzgerald, Brown and the running game. He’s a very risky tournament play. Three of the seven longest pass plays against the Steelers this season have come from tight ends, who have scored a ton of fantasy points against Mike Tomlin’s defense this year. But Darren Fells (FD $4,800, DK $2,500) is hurt and there aren’t any other appealing options at the position (not that Fells was that appealing, either), so stick to the receivers in this one.
The Takeaway: Fitzgerald is a cash game play with his consistent start to the season, as is Palmer. The running game is in too tough of a spot to trust, so your tournament fliers will come from the secondary receiving options like Brown and Floyd. The Cardinals could be a good defensive pick, as the Steelers don’t have much offensive upside, and Michael Vick is historically turnover prone.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback: All signs point to another start for Michael Vick (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) this week, as Ben Roethlisberger continues to work his way back from a sprained knee. Vick has been heralded for his big play ability throughout his career, but he’s just not the same player we saw before and right after his absence from the NFL. He’s not a dynamic runner anymore, and apart from a bomb to Markus Wheaton against the Chargers, he’s not connecting on any deep throws. One deep pass in two games isn’t a “trend” we can target, and the Cardinals aren’t a team to allow huge plays in the passing game that often, either. The Cardinals rank sixth in DVOA against the pass, and rank 27th in points allowed to quarterbacks. You can safely ignore Vick this weekend.
Running Game: The Steelers could not have needed Le’Veon Bell (FD $9,000, DK $8,500) back more badly than they did when Big Ben went down with injury. The do-it-all runner has logged 25 or more touches in every game this season, and has gone over five yards per carry in his last two starts. He’s scored in every game so far, and is just about as automatic as it gets for fantasy production at the running back spot. The Cardinals are a tough run defense, but the Steelers are the type of team that will keep their star back involved until the bitter end, because he is their best option on offense with a subpar quarterback under center.
Pass Catchers: It feels weird to not recommend Antonio Brown (FD $8,600, DK $8,300) as a cash game play, but with Vick under center, his volume (and the quality of his volume) has fallen through the floor. After starting the season with 11, 11 and 13 targets, he’s seen nine and six in his last two games, and has failed to go over 50 yards receiving in both contests. He’s capable of breaking any play for a touchdown, but he’s still priced like the 8/100/1 monster he was (and will be) with Ben under center. He’s a tournament option, and a relatively weak one at that. And if you can’t feel comfortable with Brown, you can’t really feel comfortable with any Pittsburgh wideout, especially in this tough matchup. The return of Martavis Bryant (FD $6,100, DK $4,000) only makes matters worse, as the big-play receiver is likely to see a few passes thrown his way, while the other receivers all continue to see a handful of throws from Vick as well.
The Takeaway: Le’Veon Bell is always a strong option, even in a tough matchup, but otherwise the Pittsburgh offense just isn’t worth investing in with Vick under center.
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
| Kansas City Chiefs | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
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| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Mall of America Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 44 | 20.25 | -3.5 | 44 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.4 | 14 | 13 | 14 | Offense | 20.0 | 23 | 32 | 14 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 6 | 13 | 26 | Opp. Defense | 28.6 | 29 | 29 | 13 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 7 | 6 | 16 | Kansas City Chiefs | 32 | 14 | 32 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Maclin | 52 | 36 | 1 | 478 | Wallace | 24 | 20 | 1 | 233 | |
| Wilson | 7 | 3 | 0 | 25 | Johnson | 8 | 6 | 0 | 46 | |
| Thomas | 12 | 8 | 1 | 72 | Patterson | 2 | 2 | 0 | 19 | |
| Kelce | 34 | 24 | 2 | 328 | Rudolph | 23 | 14 | 1 | 104 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Charles Johnson (MIN, Questionable) Mike Wallace (MIN, Probable)
KC Matchup Rating: 3.5
MIN Matchup Rating: 6.5
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback: We’re five weeks and counting into the “Will Andy Dalton revert back to his old, mediocre self?” show, but Alex Smith (FD $7,000, DK $5,300) version only lasted one week. A season-opening three-touchdown performance has been since followed up by a series of fantasy clunkers, with only a handful of rushing yards to help to salvage otherwise punchless point totals. However, with Jamaal Charles sidelined with an injury, more of the offense will shift onto the arm and legs of the former first-round pick, but he’s not suddenly a more explosive player, and he was already throwing the ball 30-40 times per game as it was. The Vikings are a top-ten defense against the pass according to numberFire’s team metrics, and have allowed the seventh-fewest points to opposing passers this year. Smith is a speculative tournament dart at best.
Running Game: The job of “replacing” the injured Jamaal Charles will fall to Charcandrick West (FD $6,200, DK $4,000) and Knile Davis (FD $5,500, DK $4,500). West is a former undrafted rookie out of Division II football who has impressive “burst” metrics (broad jump, vertical jump), but is otherwise an average athlete as far as running backs go, according to PlayerProfiler. Davis, on the other hand, is an athletic freak who carries 230 pounds of weight about as well as an athlete could, with incredible straight-line speed for a back of his size. However, his workout numbers haven’t translated into on-field success often enough for him to earn the full trust of his coach, but of the two backs, he has the most talent, and is more likely to break a huge play. But West appears to be in line for a more diverse and versatile role, according to Andy Reid, as the Kansas City coach compared him to Jamaal Charles in terms of his role and function in the offense. The Vikings let Carlos Hyde run all over them in Week 1, and let Ronnie Hillman run all over them in Week 4. They rank 29th in DVOA against the run, and 29th in numberFire metrics as well. This is a good spot to target one of these two cheap backups, and thanks to his favor in the eyes of the coaches (He’s shut Davis out of the offense over the past three weeks, as the incumbent backup has only logged two touches since Week 3), I prefer West.
Pass Catchers: There have been 169 targets dished out in the Kansas City passing game this season, and 116 of them have gone to Jeremy Maclin (FD $7,200, DK $6,500), Travis Kelce (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) and the now-injured Charles. Maclin is the receiver Smith leans on most heavily, and since he lines up all over the formation, he’ll spend enough time against the very beatable Xavier Rhodes. Tight ends haven’t made much noise against the Vikings this season, but with Charles out, Kelce could move up the offensive priority totem pole a notch or two and see some designed plays or more favorable situations. He’s a tournament play. And if you’re feeling adventurous, De’Anthony Thomas (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) is likely to see a carry or two, and may be used in the screen game in place of Charles to provide a bit of a spark. He’s a special player with the ability to speed past any defender, but he’s not an every-down player and he hasn’t seen more than three or four touches in any game this year.
The Takeaway: West and Maclin are both pretty strong plays who will get more volume than their price tags indicate, and Kelce is a decent tight end play, as well. Otherwise, this offense will probably take a collective step back without Charles, and should be treated with caution in a road game this weekend.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Even with talented pass rushers, a couple of decent corners and a world-class safety, the Chiefs cannot find a way to stop opposing passing games. An injured Jay Cutler threw for 252 yards, two touchdowns, and most surprisingly, no interceptions against them last week, continuing a trend of passers finding the end zone with frequency against this unit. They rank 29th in Football Outsiders pass defense ratings, and have allowed the most fantasy points to the position this year. Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,600, DK $5,300) will be the ultimate test, as the Minnesota quarterback has managed only two touchdown passes through four games, and has gone over 153 yards in only two of those games. His touchdown rate wasn’t great last year (3.5%), but it’s been cut in half so far this year, albeit in a pretty small sample. He has injury issues at his receiver positions, and has generally looked timid and reserved under center for the Vikings so far this year. Do you trust the matchup of the player’s track record? I lean more toward the latter, and will have limited exposure to Teddy, if any at all.
Running Game: The Chiefs have been much better against the run than they have against the pass, but why would teams run against them when the pass works so well? Minnesota has a great reason. His name is Adrian Peterson (FD $8,900, DK $7,600). After getting off to a slow start in Week 1, his first professional football game in quite a long time, Peterson has touched the ball 20 or more times in every game and gone for well over 100 yards in two of those three contests. From Week 2 forward, the Vikings have run 38 plays in the red zone, and Peterson was either handed the ball or thrown the ball on 19 of those snaps. He is their entire offense, and should never be counted out in anything but the very toughest of matchups. A home game against a punchless Kansas City team is not that spot. Consider AD in any contest this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Mike Wallace (FD $5,400, DK $4,500) and Charles Johnson (FD $4,700, DK $3,300) are both hurt, but expected to play this weekend. But, combine their less-than-100% status with Bridgewater’s lack of big play ability this season, and it’s tough to feel great about either one. Wallace has more volume in the offense, and would be the preferred play, but if I was insistent upon a Minnesota passing game target, I would probably skip the wideouts and go with Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,000, DK $3,000). He leads the team in red zone targets, and is the most likely to find the end zone of those going out to catch Teddy’s passes this weekend.
The Takeaway: Adrian Peterson is always an option, and Kyle Rudolph is the most likely recipient of the touchdown passes Teddy Bridgewater might not even throw. Otherwise, there’s not a lot to like in this lackluster offense.