NFL Primetime Preview: Week 12
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Sunday and Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Each game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
| New England Patriots | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 44.5 | 23.75 | 3 | 44.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 32.3 | 2 | 1 | 28 | Offense | 22.2 | 19 | 18 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | Opp. Defense | 18.2 | 1 | 24 | 2 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 17 | 1 | 12 | New England Patriots | 13 | 6 | 27 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| LaFell | 38 | 17 | 0 | 306 | Thomas | 111 | 71 | 2 | 875 | |
| Amendola | 60 | 49 | 2 | 531 | Sanders | 85 | 46 | 4 | 639 | |
| Dobson | 21 | 13 | 0 | 141 | Latimer | 10 | 5 | 1 | 57 | |
| Gronkowski | 82 | 51 | 8 | 843 | Daniels | 51 | 28 | 3 | 314 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Danny Amendola, Keshawn Martin (NE, Questionable), Owen Daniels, Emmanuel Sanders (DEN, Questionable), Peyton Manning (DEN, Out)
NE Matchup Rating: 6.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 2.5
New England Patriots
Quarterback: The Patriots may be undefeated, but they’re not flawless. Tom Brady (FD $9,000, DK $8,000) had his worst game of the season in Week 11 against the Bills, as he was chased around and under pressure, and throwing to a depleted corps of pass catchers. The worst may be yet to come, however, as the Broncos host the Patriots this week, and welcome them into their home stadium to face their elite defense. The Broncos have not allowed a 300-yard passer, nor have they allowed more than 2 passing touchdowns from a single QB this season. Brady really needs to hit both thresholds to be viable at his prices, and considering his hurting skill position players, lacking offensive line, and tough matchup, I’m inclined to fade Brady, even if I believe the Patriots find a way to win despite these seemingly major matchup concerns.
Running Game: The Broncos have the best DVOA pass defense in the NFL, but are just ninth against the run, and are in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed to opposing runners. Running backs have scored 12 times so far this season against Denver, including six in the last four weeks. LeGarrette Blount (FD $7,300, DK $5,100) will likely see his fair share of carries, but he’s a very limited player who doesn’t really pose a huge threat to a talented defense like Denver’s. James White (FD $5,100, DK $3,000) doesn’t see a ton of touches, but is a better receiver out of the backfield than Blount, and that could open up opportunities if Blount is regularly stuffed at the line of scrimmage. Blount is still the most likely player to score, and the Patriots will find ways to move the ball, and in goal-line situations, Blount will get his number called. He is a very weak tournament option.
Pass Catchers: The status of Danny Amendola (FD $6,100, DK $4,700) will really dictate how to handle the Patriots receiving situation. Amendola is a top play once again if he’s active, as he’ll see a ton of targets as the team’s best healthy receiver. He’ll have a nightmare of a matchup with Chris Harris, but so will every other wideout for New England, as the Broncos have the best secondary in the league. Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,400, DK $7,900) is always in play, and especially against Denver, who rank a modest 16th against tight ends in DVOA despite elite rankings against every other position. If Amendola is out, the Patriots will have to find a way to get the ball to Gronk, and even if Danny suits up, Gronkowski needs to be involved for the Pats to move the ball reliably. Brandon LaFell (FD $6,900, DK $4,300) will struggle to get open against the elite corners for Denver, but is still in play thanks to his quarterback. If Amendola is out, Keshawn Martin (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) (if he plays) and Chris Harper (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) are the players likely to move up the depth chart into bigger roles.
The Takeaway: Rob Gronkowski is the top play for the Patriots, while Brady, LaFell, Amendola and Blount are all viable but risky options. The Patriots are going to score points, but how they manage to score them, and whether they’re enough to pay off the high price tags for daily fantasy purposes remain the big questions ahead of this weekend’s NFL action. I will be exercising caution with the New England offense.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Brock Osweiler (FD $6,700, DK $5,300) will get another start under center for the Broncos, and he’ll go up against a New England defense that has been average against the pass this year. Tyrod Taylor was kept out of the end zone, but prior to that game, the Pats allowed multiple passing touchdowns to Eli Manning, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Andrew Luck, Blake Bortles, and Taylor in the Bills’ and Patriots’ first matchup. Osweiler looked decent against a poor Bears defense, but playing the Patriots in a pivotal AFC matchup is a totally different situation. There are safer bargain plays at QB, so reserve Osweiler for your super-contrarian tournament lineups, or just leave him on the bench.
Running Game: The Patriots have a top-ten run defense by both DVOA standards and fantasy points allowed standards, as they’ve given up only five touchdowns to running backs this season. However, they’ve also faced the second-fewest rushing attempts in the league, which helps keep the volume of yards and potential touchdowns low. They’re still a good per-attempt defense (DVOA takes that into account, and their yards per attempt allowed sits at 3.9, better than league average), which means it won’t be an easy matchup for the Broncos. But Denver may be afforded the luxury of running against the Patriots more often than the average team, as this game should stay competitive, and Denver will want to slow the game down and keep the ball out of Osweiler’s hands as much as possible. Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,300, DK $4,000) and C.J. Anderson (FD $5,800, DK $3,500) could both see 10+ touches, but as long as Hillman continues to get more opportunities (as he did last week), he’ll be the preferred option. Hillman is risky, but he’ll also be very low owned, and has the potential for 20+ touches and a majority of the red zone work.
Pass Catchers: Demaryius Thomas (FD $7,700, DK $7,400) and a healthy Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,500, DK $6,800) are obviously the two top options in the Denver passing game, but with good corners on the other side of the ball in this game, it will be tough to trust either one. Osweiler has good rapport with Thomas, and the duo could combine for a touchdown in this one, but he’s very risky as the team’s obvious top option which the Patriots will look to neutralize. Sanders, if healthy, will be incredibly low owned, but his chemistry with his new QB and his ability to play at full speed against a good secondary are big questions that may not be worth risking that much salary for answers. And according to Football Outsiders, it has been WR1 who have done the best against the New England secondary this year, while third and fourth options have also succeeded. But since the other wideouts for Denver are scattered and unreliable, I’ll stick with Thomas if I’m rostering any Denver pass catcher.
The Takeaway: The Broncos don’t have the league’s most prolific offense, but the Patriots aren’t a defense to fear. This should be a low-scoring, competitive affair, but there’s potentially a nice fantasy day to be had by Thomas or Hillman.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns
| Baltimore Ravens | Cleveland Browns | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | FirstEnergy Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 41 | 19.25 | -2.5 | 41 | 21.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.6 | 17 | 9 | 22 | Offense | 18.6 | 28 | 6 | 31 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.7 | 30 | 25 | 32 | Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 20 | 23 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Cleveland Browns | 12 | 25 | 25 | 19 | Baltimore Ravens | 30 | 9 | 30 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Aiken | 66 | 37 | 3 | 456 | Benjamin | 82 | 48 | 4 | 729 | |
| Givens | 25 | 13 | 1 | 193 | Hawkins | 43 | 27 | 0 | 276 | |
| Brown | 30 | 14 | 0 | 112 | Hartline | 44 | 22 | 2 | 259 | |
| Gillmore | 42 | 29 | 4 | 385 | Barnidge | 74 | 48 | 7 | 667 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Taylor Gabriel, Andrew Hawkins (CLE, Questionable)
BAL Matchup Rating: 5.0
CLE Matchup Rating: 4.0
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback: Even in a great matchup, I don’t trust Matt Schaub (FD $6,200, DK $5,300) as a daily fantasy quarterback. He doesn’t have any good weapons in his receiving corps, and he hasn’t started a game in two years, when he was last seen throwing two picks in a 16-10 loss to the Titans. It’s entirely possible that he could reclaim the form he had several years ago with the Texans, when he was one of the better mid-tier passers in the NFL, but I’ll take the chance of missing out on the first week of that process.
Running Game: Javorius Allen (FD $6,300, DK $4,600) has been waiting for his chance with this Baltimore offense, sitting behind Justin Forsett and getting a decent amount of reps for a backup, and now he has his shot. His stat line against the Rams wasn’t all that impressive, but the Rams are one of the best defenses in the league, while the Browns rank 29th in run defense DVOA and eighth in points allowed to opposing RBs. Seven different backs have gone over 90 yards rushing against the Browns, and several runners have had nice days as receivers against Cleveland, as well. Allen is capable as a runner or in the passing game, and is the only show in town in the backfield for Baltimore, so expect 20+ touches in a premier matchup. He’s a solid play in all formats.
Pass Catchers: Matt Schaub always had good production when throwing to tight ends in Houston, so Crockett Gillmore (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) is in play as a tight end, otherwise known as the backup quarterback’s best friend. He’s the only player in the passing game I can trust, as Kamar Aiken (FD $6,100, DK $4,900) mainly drew his value from Flacco’s ability to get him the ball, and we can’t be sure Schaub will have the same chemistry or ability to throw Aiken open. Gillmore is a GPP play, while Aiken and Givens are very, very speculative tournament options you can throw into a cheap lineup and hope for the best.
The Takeaway: The Ravens offense will likely run through young Buck Allen this weekend, as he’s experienced in the offense and capable as a runner and receiver. The passing game is risky, as Schaub could continue his trend of throwing crippling interceptions near the end of his Houston career, but Crockett Gillmore is as safe as you can get in a Schaub-led offense.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback: The Browns are going with a backup quarterback, as well, but in this case, Josh McCown (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) has proven to at least be fantasy relevant, even if he’s not a great real-life QB. Apart from a game against a tough St. Louis defense, McCown had multiple touchdown passes in every game in which he threw more than eight passes, including a 450-yard, three-total-touchdown effort against this same Baltimore team. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, and rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. McCown is dirt cheap and well worth a spot in your lineup, in cash games or tournaments.
Running Game: The Ravens are better against the run than they are against the pass, ranking 15th against the ground game according to Football Outsiders, and fifth according to numberFire. However, in these two teams’ previous matchup, Duke Johnson (FD $6,000, DK $3,900) hauled in six passes for 55 yards from McCown, something he could do again with his preferred quarterback back under center. He’s only in play on PPR sites, but if he manages six catches and 60 yards through the air, he won’t need much more to hit value. However, due to the tough matchup, I’ll be avoiding Isaiah Crowell (FD $5,400, DK $3,200), who has not topped 50 yards rushing since Week 4 (which came against the league’s worst run defense).
Pass Catchers: Of the 254 passes thrown by McCown this season, 110 have been nearly evenly split by Gary Barnidge (FD $6,500, DK $4,800) and Travis Benjamin (FD $5,900, DK $5,300). Duke Johnson comes in third, as the only other player to receive more than 30 targets when McCown is throwing the ball. These are the three players to focus on when stacking this offense for tournaments, and Barnidge is a safe play apart from McCown in any format. The Ravens have a very low points allowed total against tight ends, but according to DVOA, they’re below average against the position. They were torched by Barnidge earlier this year, and have faced a pretty easy tight end schedule for most of this season. McCown and Barnidge have a good chemistry, and that should connect for a touchdown against the Ravens. Benjamin has been quiet since his four touchdowns in three games to start the season, as his volume dropped off in Week 7, only to return last time out against the Steelers. McCown is the better QB for Benjamin, as he’ll be throwing more often, and with more accuracy than Manziel. Look for the speedster to break a big play against the Baltimore defense, which has allowed the second-most fantasy points to wideouts this year.
The Takeaway: McCown and Barnidge are the top plays and the top stack for this Cleveland offense, while Johnson (in a PPR) and Benjamin are solid tournament plays. The Cleveland defense is a GPP option, as Schaub’s ability to throw pick sixes is unmatched in the NFL. It’s tough to predict defensive touchdowns, but Schaub provides better odds than most other quarterbacks.