NFL Primetime Preview: Week 9
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Primetime Preview, an all-encompassing preview of Sunday and Monday Night Football. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s primetime contests.
Each game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
| Philadelphia Eagles | Dallas Cowboys | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | AT&T Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 44.5 | 23.5 | 2.5 | 44.5 | 21 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.9 | 17 | 21 | 16 | Offense | 19.0 | 29 | 28 | 10 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.4 | 17 | 8 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 11 | 16 | 17 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Dallas Cowboys | 6 | 28 | 5 | 11 | Philadelphia Eagles | 15 | 6 | 25 | 4 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Matthews | 63 | 39 | 1 | 398 | Bryant | 13 | 7 | 0 | 60 | |
| Huff | 19 | 13 | 1 | 141 | Williams | 42 | 20 | 2 | 313 | |
| Cooper | 23 | 11 | 2 | 205 | Beasley | 30 | 22 | 0 | 214 | |
| Celek | 9 | 7 | 2 | 71 | Witten | 49 | 38 | 2 | 360 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ryan Mathews, Nelson Agholor (PHI, Questionable)
PHI Matchup Rating: 5.5
DAL Matchup Rating: 3.0
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: The Cowboys play at the slowest pace in the NFL, while the Eagles play at the fastest tempo. This will balance out somewhere in the middle, but does drag down one of the most appealing aspects of the Chip Kelly offense. Dallas has allowed only one passing touchdown over the last two weeks, and rank 27th on the year in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Sam Bradford (FD $7,600, DK $5,900) has four interceptions and only one touchdown pass in his last two starts, and struggled against the Cowboys in their first meeting this season. There are better ways to spend your salary this weekend.
Running Game: Dallas ranks fifth in points per game allowed to the running back position, and 20th in DVOA against the run. This is a vulnerable run defense, but it did a great job of shutting down the Philly rushing game in Week 2. Further complicating matters is the way that DeMarco Murray (FD $7,500, DK $6,400) and Ryan Mathews (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) have split the production over the past few weeks. If Mathews is ruled out, I feel comfortable with Murray as a strong tournament play, but if both players suit up, it will be very tough to trust either one, even in a GPP. Darren Sproles (FD $5,500, DK $3,800) would be an interesting PPR play if Mathews is ruled out, as he’d see more work and is coming off of a ten-target game in Week 7. He’s a tournament flier if Mathews doesn’t go.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $6,300, DK $6,400) is the top target in the Philadelphia passing game, but he’s been really poor this season, with inconsistent hands and a lack of any big plays or meaningful red zone work. His best performance to date came against the Philadelphia defense, but it was propped up by a garbage time touchdown. Matthews isn’t worth his current price. The other wideouts for Philadelphia have scattered roles and are impossible to sort out. Zach Ertz (FD $5,000, DK $3,200) has started to see more consistent targets, and has a cheap price in DraftKings, and would be under consideration against a team that’s been more susceptible to tight ends than the Cowboys. But since Dallas ranks 13th in DVOA against the position and 22nd in fantasy points allowed, Ertz is best left for a better matchup down the road.
The Takeaway: Keep an eye on the running back situation, as the situation at the position becomes clearer if Mathews is ruled out. Otherwise, I’m not going to invest in this offense with how poorly they’ve played and how spread the production has been. The defense is in an interesting spot against Matt Cassel and company, and is a tournament play this week.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback: Why would you roster Matt Cassel (FD $6,300, DK $5,000) when you could get Jameis Winston, Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota and Tyrod Taylor for similar prices? He’s been terrible as the Dallas starter, the Cowboys play at a very slow tempo, and the Eagles have a top-10 pass defense according to both numberFire and DVOA. Avoid this situation entirely.
Running Game: The Eagles also have a stout run defense, which ranks 27th in fantasy points per game allowed to opposing backs. Darren McFadden (FD $6,500, DK $4,300) will likely catch a few passes and get 20+ touches, and that may be enough to hit value on DraftKings. But running backs have scored only two touchdowns against Philly this season, and both of those scores were by Mike Tolbert in Week 7. The Cowboys could recreate what the Panthers did two weeks ago and run well against the Philly defense, but when considering how they performed against this same defense in Week 2, I’m not going to bank on it for daily fantasy purposes.
Pass Catchers: With Cassel under center, McFadden and Jason Witten (FD $5,600, DK $5,200) are the only players on this offense worthy of consideration. The Eagles have been very tough on tight ends this year, so Witten isn’t a noteworthy option. Dez Bryant (FD $7,900, DK $7,900) could use another week or two with Cassel to continue to lower his price, so he’ll be a great value when Tony Romo finally returns.
The Takeaway: The Cowboys are missing the two biggest pieces of their offense, and are struggling as a result. Darren McFadden is an option on PPR sites, but this team should be avoided otherwise.
Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers
| Chicago Bears | San Diego Chargers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Qualcomm Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 49 | 22.5 | -4 | 49 | 26.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.0 | 27 | 26 | 20 | Offense | 23.9 | 14 | 1 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.4 | 27 | 13 | 27 | Opp. Defense | 28.9 | 29 | 4 | 29 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| San Diego Chargers | 16 | 32 | 7 | 20 | Chicago Bears | 26 | 11 | 21 | 3 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 37 | 23 | 2 | 341 | Floyd | 40 | 21 | 3 | 409 | |
| Royal | 36 | 26 | 1 | 170 | Johnson | 37 | 24 | 2 | 283 | |
| Wilson | 33 | 18 | 1 | 302 | Jones | |||||
| Bennett | 58 | 37 | 2 | 324 | Gates | 32 | 22 | 2 | 243 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Matt Forte, Eddie Royal (CHI, Doubtful), Ladarius Green (SD, Doubtful)
CHI Matchup Rating: 5.5
SD Matchup Rating: 6.5
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: A lot of fantasy players are going to focus on the San Diego side of this game for passing game targets, and for good reason. But the Bears have a pretty good matchup of their own, and it might go unnoticed as gamers flock to the running back situation. Jay Cutler (FD $7,100, DK $5,200) is incredibly cheap and is facing a defense ranked outside the top-20 against the pass according to Football Outsiders and numberFire. This game has one of the higher totals of the weekend, and should be somewhat competitive, so the Bears will be throwing all the way through until the fourth quarter. Michael Vick and Teddy Bridgewater are the only quarterbacks to not score multiple touchdowns against this defense this season, and Cutler is more productive (if not more talented) than both of those players. He’s a great tournament option at QB.
Running Game: Jeremy Langford (FD $6,400, DK $4,000) will step in for the almost-certain-to-be-out Matt Forte, and becomes a top option for cash games at the running back spot. Langford picked up 12 carries against the Vikings in relief of Forte, and should see 15-20 against a San Diego defense that ranks last in DVOA run defense, and that has allowed the most points per game to the position this season. Backs have scored ten times in eight games against the Bolts, with nearly 1400 total yards from scrimmage. This is a dream matchup, and Langford has the trust of his coaches to carry the load on offense. Use him in any format on any site this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,900, DK $6,700) is an interesting case this week. He’s seen 11 or more targets in every game this season, but will face a very tough opponent this week in Jason Verrett. Verrett is one of the league’s best corners, and has been shadowing opposing star wideouts this year. But he’s not invincible, and Jay Cutler is still going to fire the ball toward his top wideout. I think Jeffery’s upside is capped, but his floor is still solid. He’s a viable tournament option. Martellus Bennett (FD $5,400, DK $4,900) is a safer, cheaper way to get exposure to the passing game, as he’ll face a defense ranked 30th at defending the tight end by Football Outsiders, and that could be without star safety Eric Weddle. And with Eddie Royal unlikely to play, Marquess Wilson (FD $4,800, DK $4,000) will get more playing time and benefit from not seeing the coverage of Verrett. Toss him in a tournament lineup or two.
The Takeaway: Langford is the daily fantasy darling this weekend, but Cutler, Jeffery, Bennett and Wilson are all worthy of a spot in your GPP rosters as well.
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: The Bears have allowed the seventh-most points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season, and rank 24th against the pass according to numberFire and Football Outsiders. That’s good enough for Philip Rivers (FD $8,600, DK $6,900), who is on a record-setting pace this season in terms of passing yards. The Bears allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 400 yards in Week 6, and have given up three or more touchdown passes three times this season. Rivers has a good matchup here and we know he has high volume, so despite a ton of great weapons at his disposal, he’s a solid option in all formats this week.
Running Game: The Chargers tried to get Melvin Gordon (FD $6,100, DK $4,000) involved last week, giving him 18 carries and five receptions. He turned those 23 touches into 61 yards, and failed to find the end zone. He’s just not up to speed when it comes to NFL offense yet, and his offensive line is doing him no favors. The Bears have a poor run defense according to the advanced statistics (31st DVOA, 30th numberFire), but they’ve done a decent job keeping opposing backs out of the end zone, giving up just four touchdowns to running backs this season. They rank second in defending backs in the passing game, removing a good amount of the value for Danny Woodhead (FD $6,000, DK $4,800) as well. Neither back stands out as a strong play, especially if the team is going to insist upon giving Gordon 20+ touches and limiting Woodhead to just a handful.
Pass Catchers: With Keenan Allen out and Ladarius Green likely to sit this one out as well, Steve Johnson (FD $5,400, DK $3,200), Malcom Floyd (FD $6,100, DK $3,900), Antonio Gates (FD $6,000, DK $4,700) and Dontrelle Inman (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) are your four pass catchers of note. The Bears have terrible corners at every spot on the depth chart, and don’t cover tight ends well, either. That has led to them allowing the eighth-most points to opposing wideouts this season, and ranking 25th in DVOA against tight ends. Johnson is a must-play, especially on PPR sites, as he should step into a huge role as a possession receiver in place of Keenan Allen. Floyd has big play potential, even as a veteran coming to the end of his career, and should see a bit of extra volume to compensate for the injuries. Inman played well when pressed into duty last season, but hasn’t put it all together in a single game yet. If he gets 7-10 targets moving forward, he’s a player to keep an eye on. And while the Bears have decent DvP against tight ends, they did allow Jimmy Graham to have a solid day through the air, and have no answer for Gates. He will see a ton of targets and should have a very good day in the prolific San Diego passing game.
The Takeaway: The Chargers have tons of value plays at receiver and tight end, and their quarterback is a fine daily fantasy option, as well. This is one of the more fantasy friendly games of the weekend, so enjoy the sweat on Monday night as the last of your players pick up points and decide the outcome of your contests!